Wave Of Revolution Research Articles

Long Memory Properties in Return and Volatility: An Application of the Impact of Arab Spring in Turkey Financial Market

The Arab Spring which began on 17 December 2010 with the civil rebellions, revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests in the Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. The Arab Spring not only created a domino effect between Arabic countries but also it reflected a significant influence on the financial markets all over the world. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of the Arab Spring in Turkey Financial Market in consideration of long memory. Long memory can be defined as the persistence of the unexpected shocks on the underlying has long lasting effects. Modeling long memory in stock returns and volatility has also attracted great deal of attention from finance literature recently. Existence of long memory is determined both for the returns and volatility of the time series by using different methods. Existence of long memory can be tested by Rescaled Range Statistics (R/S), Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) Model and Gaussian Semi Parametric (GSP) Method. In consequence of these tests, if the stock returns have long memory affect then respectively Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARFIMA) and the Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to detect the long memory in respectively return and volatility. In this study, the impact of the Arab Spring is investigated by modeled the long memory in Istanbul Stock Exchange using ISE 30 index prices in between December 17, 2010 and April 02, 2012.

INTERNET FREEDOM POLICY VS. CYBER-CENSORSHIP

In late 2010 a revolutionary wave of demonstrations began in the Arab world; starting in Tunisia a series of protests and civil unrest spread across northern Africa and into many Middle Eastern countries. The overwhelming use of social media was instrumental in sparking many of these protests. In an effort to curtail these protests the governments in these countries began to aggressively censor or eliminate their citizen’s access to the Internet. After the Iranian protest movement in 2009, the U.S. State Department announced its “Internet Freedom Policy” where the dissidents of oppressive regimes were supplied the tools and resources necessary to report the human rights violations of their countries leaders to the world. Admits this U.S. state department policy however; lawmakers in all branches of government have sought to curtail their own citizen’s access to the Internet, with the proposal of laws and regulation aimed at censorship. Two proposed bills; SOPA and PIPA have sought to forgo many of the due process statutes of the rule of law and the first amendment right to the freedom of speech.

Inception of Wagner's doctrine of regeneration prior to the revolution 1848-1849

The predominant opinion in contemporary science is that Richard Wagner began formulating his doctrine of regeneration in the 1860s, with a subsequent elaboration in the so-called regeneration writings, creating a sort of theoretical platform for working on Parsifal, a festival play for the consecration of the stage. Wagner's written legacy, however, shows that he had been thinking about regeneration ever since the 1840s, as well as that he used the term in a broad range of meanings-especially considering that he used that word of the French origin as the synonym for the German word Wiedergeburt. This paper focuses on three instances where he referred to regeneration in the fifth decade of the 19th century: a letter from 1843, a text "How do republican aspirations stand in relation to the monarchy?", and a paper Art and Revolution. In 1843, Wagner had only vague ideas about regeneration in art; five years later, while the city of Dresden was eagerly awaiting the revolutionary wave from France, it was the rebirth of human society that he had in mind; after the collapse of the revolution, realizing his limitations and dispelling illusions about its success, he established a correlation-never to be dismissed-between regeneration and art; i.e. he fancied that the regeneration of the being of a nation's members could be achieved by exposing them to the effects of a special, true art.

The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?

Prominent scholars have highlighted important similarities between the Arab Spring of 2011 and the “revolutions” of 1848: Both waves of contention swept with dramatic speed across whole regions, but ended up yielding rather limited advances toward political liberalism and democracy. I seek to uncover the causal mechanisms that help account for these striking parallels. Drawing on my recent analysis of 1848, I argue that contention spread so quickly because many people in a wide range of countries drew rash inferences from the downfall of Tunisia's dictator. Applying cognitive heuristics that psychologists have documented, they overrated the significance of the Tunisian success, overestimated the similarities with the political situation in their own country, and jumped to the conclusion that they could successfully challenge their own autocrats. This precipitation prompted protests in many settings that actually were much less propitious; therefore problems abounded. Cognitive shortcuts held such sway because Arab societies were weakly organized and repressed and thus lacked leaders from whom common people could take authoritative cues. The decision whether to engage in emulative contention fell to ordinary citizens, who—due to limited information access and scarce experience—were especially susceptible to the simple inferences suggested by cognitive heuristics.

The Self-Destructive Logic of Capitalism and the Occupy Movement

After three years of economic crisis that has caused increasing economic hardship for most of the world's population, the year 2011 started with a blast of hope in the form of a revolutionary wave ...

The Arab Awakening and Its Political Economy

Many commentators suggest that the Middle East political turbulence was foreseeable and it cannot be said it had been unexpected. However, the diplomatic and intelligence establishments in the United States and the European Union, which have the most crucial stakes in this region, seemed to have been so preoccupied with focusing on Al Qaeda, Hezbol-lah, Hammas, and the Taliban that in a narrow picture they seem to have lost sight of the revolutionary wave, which has altered the governments in Tunis and Cairo and shaved off some of the most hated and oppressive regimes with the sheer example of Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Qaddafi . The spectacular fall of such dictators as Mubarak, has led to the question, whether the “Arab Awakening” was a transformation or a revolution. There are also questions concerning the idea of democratisation of the third world and corruption, which change the Arab governments into “bad apples”. According to the western view, democracy is a Janus-faced ideological god, pulling the strings of both politics and economics. One cannot exist without the other, therefore, when we reconsider the political aspect of the Arab uprising, we should not forget about the economy.

Seasons of Change: Arab Spring and Political Opportunities

Seasons of Change: Arab Spring and Political Opportunities

Anti-Politics: modern politics and its critics in Denmark, 1830–1848

The rapid politicization of the public sphere in Denmark between the two European revolutionary waves of 1830 and 1848 created not only enthusiasm, but also sharp criticism of institutionalized and segmented politics as inherently alienating and inauthentic. Such anti-political criticism was expressed from a range of different positions: philosophical, poetical, religious and social. This article maps and analyses the conflicting subject positions from which anti-political criticism was articulated as well as the different spatio-temporal delimitations and modalities of politics within each position.

Data pertaining to the outbreak of the Lithuanian insurrection (25 March 1831), retrieved from Swedish diplomatic sources

Similarly to the Polish insurrection of November 1830, the Lithuanian one, occurring in March 1831, retained the attention of the Swedish diplomacy from the very beginning. This was made possible, in the first place, by the fact that the events were connected by a strong link of causality, in the sense that they aimed at severing Poland and Lithuania from the political-institutional system of the Russian Empire and at reconstituting the old one, i.e. the Polish-Lithuanian Union. But the latter’s victory would have first resulted in the radical upheaval of the ratio of forces in North-Eastern Europe, which could have also affected the Swedish-Norwegian political-institutional system, since it was assumed that the Norwegians would not have spared any time in following the Lithuanian and Polish example by denouncing the personal union with Sweden. Moreover, the revolutionary wave sweeping over Europe in 1830 was not one to avoid Sweden. Unlike other areas, the Swedes that opposed King Karol XIV Jan’s government went no further than to criticise it, despite the fact that both the criticism and the programme of the opposition kept increasing in boldness. The Swedish diplomacy therefore approached the issue of the Polish and Lithuanian insurrections from the same perspective, taking particular care to observe their evolution, placing itself in a position of reserveless condemnation of such behaviour. The documents transcribed in the following pages are the diplomatic reports of N. Fr. Palmstjerna, the chargé d’affaires of Sweden in Petersburg, and were selected from the Sveriges Riksarkivet, Kabinettet/UD Huvudarkivet, E2D, 702, the Petersburg fund, 1821, Jan.-iuni. They sometimes contain very detailed information pertaining to the early phase of the Lithuanian insurrection. By introducing them to the academic circuit, we express our hope that they will contribute to the expansion of the research horizon of the history of North-Eastern Europe from the first half of the 19th century.

Arab Revolutions and the Study of Middle Eastern Societies

The speed, spread, and democratic thrust of Arab revolutionary uprisings conjure up the revolutionary waves of 1848 and 1989 in Europe. Spearheaded by educated youth, the Arab uprisings have been brought to fruition by the masses of ordinary people (men, women, Muslims, and non-Muslims) who have mobilized at an astonishing scale against authoritarian regimes in pursuit of social justice, democratic governance, and dignity. If this broad observation is valid, then these social earthquakes are likely to unsettle some of the most enduring perspectives on the region. To begin with, they should undermine “Middle East exceptionalism,” with its culturalist focus informed by assumptions of “stagnant culture,” “fatalist Muslims,” and “unchangeable polity.” In political science, students of “regime stability” and the “authoritarian resiliency” of Arab states may have to reevaluate their conceptual premises. The analytical relevance of the concept of “rentier state” as the political basis of authoritarian stability might likewise need serious reformulation. The blatant cash handouts by some Arab Gulf states to “buy opposition” during the wave of protests in February and March 2011 do not seem to have worked.

<b> The Middle East – A [very] Cautious Evaluation </b> 10.5102/uri.v9i1.1391

This paper tries to present a cautious evaluation of the ongoing uprisings against the various authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa, in countries so different as Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain, Yemen, Syria or Libya. It is noting the fact that millions of young participants in the uprisings are not organized politically, real secular political parties do not exist or are extremely weak, and therefore warns about the threat from the organized radical Islamist movements as potential winners in these internal conflicts. It also tries to explain why the “Turkish model” of the Islamist AKP government is not the best solution to this revolutionary wave. The paper mentions the importance of the new networking media in the development of the events but not as a sine qua non condition for success, as the anti-democratic Islamists also skillfully use it. Finally, it warns about the threat to the existing peace agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors and the possibility that the theocratic regime in Iran could be the real winner of the situation.

The World-Cultural Origins of Revolutionary Waves: Five Centuries of European Contention

The World-Cultural Origins of Revolutionary Waves: Five Centuries of European Contention

A Turkish Model for the Arab Spring?

The revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests across the Arab world – known collectively as the Arab Spring – have ushered in a period of unprecedented change to the region. To what extent are non-Arab regional players relevant to this process? This essay considers two dimensions of the potential significance of Turkey to the events underway in the Arab world. Turkey has at times been invoked as a regionally appropriate example on which to model Arab democratization in a post-authoritarian context. This essay critically examines such claims, pointing out both the democratic deficits of the Turkish model and the intrinsic challenges of applying external models to indigenous democratization efforts. On the other hand, there is a second sense in which Turkey may have a role in the Arab Spring – namely, as an actor in its own right. With respect to this second dimension, this essay considers evolving Turkish policy towards the Arab world and examines the potential for Turkey to play a constructive role as a pro-democratic force in the region.

The World-Cultural Origins of Revolutionary Waves

The existence of revolutionary waves is a well-known feature of history. This study contends that revolutionary waves are best understood as systemic phenomena occurring during periods of rapid world-cultural expansion. Rapid expansion and deeper penetration of cultural linkages is theorized to generate contradiction between idealized models and local political practices, empower oppositions, and fracture elites, resulting in waves of revolution. The theoretical logic is illustrated with the example of the Atlantic Revolutions. Multivariate analyses examine the correspondence among a new indicator of world culture, additional systemic processes, and revolutionary waves across five centuries of European history. Results suggest that the occurrence of revolutionary waves is positively associated with relatively rapid world-cultural growth and hegemonic decline, as indicated by periods of hegemonic warfare.

The Crossroads of the European Revolution: Ukrainian Social-Democrats and Communists (Independentists), the Ukrainian Revolution and Soviet Hungary 1917–1920

When considering the fate of the revolutionary wave in Europe during 1916–1921 the traditional view has been that the failure of European communism to carry the revolution beyond its point of origin decided the fate of the infant Soviet Union negatively. This article seeks to demonstrate that in 1917–1919 the Ukrainian question was pivotal to the success of the revolution in Europe. It examines the role of the Ukrainian Social-Democrat and Communist Independentists, the Ukapisty. These Ukrainian Marxists challenged both the Russian Communist Party and the Ukrainian nationalists in their quest for an independent Soviet Ukraine. Their campaign had international significance and gained the support of Soviet Hungary, their alliance brought into question the role of the Russian Communist Party in undermining the communist project in Europe. An appreciation of the causes of these little known events is essential to understand the subsequent fate of the revolutions.

Militarización e identidades políticas en la revolución rioplatense

The revolutions of the Hispanic American independence have occupied an outstanding place in the new agenda of the political history. This paper proposes to explore the processes for constructing the political identities starting from the militarization and war experimented in the jurisdictions of the Salta and Cuyo provinces, integrated to the Rio de la Plata Viceroyship as from 1776. The work takes into account the benefit of comparative exercises that aid in the enlightenment of regional specificities assumed when dealing with the revolutionary wave unleashed in the Spanish American domains since 1808.

THE ABKHAZIAN–GEORGIAN CONFLICT AND THE ISSUE OF INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS

In November 2003, mass protests against electoral fraud toppled Eduard Shevardnadze's government in Georgia leading to the inauguration of a new generation of politicians, most having little memory of the Soviet past and a Western education. International mass media transmitted the images of victorious masses in this bloodless coup known as the ‘Rose Revolution’. The future president of Georgia, 36-year-old Mikheil Saakashvili, announced the arrival of a new era in Georgian history, pledging to establish the rule of law, boost the country's democratic credentials, and restore Georgia's sovereignty over the country's entire territory. The population showed euphoric confidence in his ability to fulfil these promises. Coups and the ousting of a government was not a new phenomenon for the South Caucasian republic. Power succession in Georgia usually involved turbulence, unlike the peaceful pattern found in neighbouring Azerbaijan and Armenia. Still, this ‘revolution’ was considered to be something very special, and many expectations, locally and internationally, were connected to it. Evidently, it was not the format of change that was so important, but rather the symbolic meaning ascribed to it, and the indication that a new revolutionary wave had evolved that would drastically change the geopolitical map of Eurasia. The Caucasus and Georgia have become the most dynamic and contentious areas, where many seeds of the future regional order have taken root. Ethnic relations and ethnic conflicts played and continue to play a decisive role in this process. Since the end of the 1980s, ethno-territorial conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have become the most conspicuous aspect of Georgia's new political reality, damaging stability, developmental prospects and economic self-sufficiency. A particularly sensitive issue is that of Abkhazia, due mainly to an immense number of forced migrants, ethnic Georgians who greatly outnumbered the Abkhazians prior to the conflict but are now displaced, living with the hope of returning to their homes in Abkhazia. However, the constellation of a number of factors makes it less probable that this conflict will be resolved any time soon.

Will nanotechnology make the world a better place?

Nanotechnology could produce a revolutionary wave of innovation in society. The form that such a revolution might take will depend upon many things but certainly upon the context, content and purposes of research projects and agendas decided by existing political and corporate institutions. Lessons from the genetically modified organism debate indicate that the behaviour of these institutions is at least as important as the 'risk' in informing public acceptability. This article argues that current research priorities need to shift in favour of environmental and health protection to engender public support and/or an ongoing need to remain sensitive to emerging societal preferences.

Barbarian Resistance and Rebel Alliances: Social Movements and Empire

Empire is curious and challenging book. Although it sets out to be latter-day Communist Manifesto, it lacks the concrete aesthetic, the urgent pace of argument, and the practical cutting edge of the latter. There are sound material reasons for this, some of which its authors would doubtless acknowledge: it is not, after all, the product of the needs and temperature of radical organisation, written in the midst of great revolutionary wave. What Empire is not, however, is made up for in some ways by what it is. A closer analogy than with the Manifesto would probably be with the German Ideology. Like that work, Empire offers a general theoretical framework and toolbox of concepts (p.xvi), still some way detached from the actual use of those tools, and sustained exposure to particular way of thought which - just maybe - can help particular kinds of militant to see themselves and their situation in new ways, ways they can then practice in concrete movements. An even closer analogy would be with contemporary socialist science fiction. Caught in this same period where the assured languages and strategies of the mid-century have finally broken down, while new senses of potentiality are stirring on the fringes of what can be articulated, authors like MacLeod (1995 etc.), MiA©ville (2000), Byrne (1999) or Robinson (1993 etc.) show us successful moments of popular revolt, placed in settings which illuminate the present without being allegories and driven by forms of agency which bear similarly metaphoric relationship to reality. The richly allusive nature of the book makes this stronger way to read what Empire has to say on social movements than formal critique of an analysis of movements which it lacks, in that sense of neat organisation of propositions. It is not book which is easy to grasp on first reading; like Starhawk or Le Guin(2), it demands rereading (front to back, back to front, in pieces, in hopscotch pattern, or through correspondences (p. xvi)) to enter into its mental world and find new possibilities there. To keep going in the present, an important resource may be to recognise that we do not know as much as we thought we did: like the barbarian priest or the rebel volunteer, we understand our local struggles but find it hard to grasp their insertion within - and challenge to - Empire. In our own provinciality, of campaigns and jobs, gatherings and books, what do we gain - and what do we not find - in Hardt and Negri's alternate world?

The Curious Side of Modern Czech Nationalism

The essay deals with some specific aspects of the Czech national idea and movement which set it apart from other national movements in Central Europe. It points out the contradictions inherent in the self-image of the Czechs and in their interpretation of their own history. It also draws the attention of the reader to the original contributions to the theories of nation developed by Czech thinkers, espe- cially T. G. Masaryk and his disciples. Czech Sociological Review, 2001, Vol. 9 (No. 2: 225-234) The building process of the modern Czech nation was similar to the nation-building proc- esses everywhere in Central and Eastern Europe: an ethnic group was brought to the awareness of its collective identity ('awakened') by an elite which eventually presented claims in its name to constitutional and international recognition. The 'totem', that is, the principal identity sign in this case, as in most other cases in the region, was the 'tongue', the specific Czech language. Yet there were notabler differences, to the point that the birth of the modern Czech nation can be viewed as a phenomenon sui generis, a kind of his- torical curiosity. It is possible to ascertain such differences in several aspects. Cautious beginnings The first generation of the Czech 'awakeners', active at the turn of the 19th century, did not have any explicitly political goals in mind and was rather sceptical on this subject. Many saw the population, the existence of which they wished to bring to the attention of the European public, as a precious historical and cultural relic rather than a political agent. The Czechs in their view had a great past, but there was ambiguity about their fu- ture. The Czech ethnic group was situated the farthest west of all Slavic tribes and was virtually encircled by German-speaking elements. In Austria, of which it formed a part, the official language was German. German was adopted by all Czech classes above the peasantry, since its command was the condition for social advancement. Objectively, the chances of the emergence of a self-contained Czech nation were not very favourable at that time. To some contemporary observers it even appeared that, given the geopolitical location of the Czech group, it was likely to end up inside a German nation-state - when such a state would be created - in circumstances similar to those reserved for the Basques in France, or the Irish, Scots, and Welsh peoples in England/Great Britain; that the Czechs would ultimately be identified as tschechisch sprechende Deutsche, Czech- speaking Germans, similar to the tiny Slavic group of Sorbs living in Saxony who also referred to themselves as wendische sprechende Deutsche. On the German side, this expectation prevailed even in the circles that otherwise were sympathetic to the efforts to preserve Czech language and culture. It persisted until the revolutionary wave of 1848/49 and its aftermath. In his analysis of Slavism in Bohe-