Price Reversals Research Articles

CONTRARIAN STRATEGY: EVIDENCE OF PRICE REVERSAL ON WINNER-LOSER PORTFOLIOS

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the contrarian strategy by demonstrating the existence of price reversal phenomena in winner-loser stock portfolios on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This research differs from previous studies by comprehensively exploring the Indonesian stock market (IDX), which has characteristics distinct from developed countries. Thus, this research contributes new insights to the investment literature in emerging markets. The research approach is quantitative, utilizing monthly data in the form of stock closing prices from all companies listed on the IDX from January 2020 to June 2023, totaling 866 companies, with a selected sample of 670 companies. The hypothesis was tested using an independent sample t-test. The results show that the winner and loser stock portfolios experienced price reversal in the first month after the formation period. However, in the second and third months, the winner stock portfolio did not experience a price reversal but showed significant changes. Meanwhile, the loser stock portfolio experienced price reversals in the first, second, and third months after the formation period. Both portfolios exhibit significant differences in AAR and CAAR values, leading to the general conclusion that price reversal symmetry occurred. Such conditions present opportunities for investors or traders, serving as signals to make contrarian decisions buying loser stocks or selling winner stocks. This phenomenon also provides evidence of the winner-loser anomaly in the Indonesian capital market.

Global reversal strategy: equilibrium of endogenous trading?

PurposeAfter considering the price reversal among countries' indices as a global, coordinated and generalized phenomenon, this paper aims to examine the profitability of the reversal strategy internationally and find an economically essential and predictive reversal effect. Indices' portfolios form based on the prior 48 months; prior losers outperform prior winners by 8.86% per year during the subsequent 48 months. Interestingly, the reversal effect is substantially stronger for emerging countries, yielding 14.04% annually. It remains profitable post-globalization, countering the concern of whether the integration of equity markets synchronized the price reversal worldwide. Returns' differences consistent with portfolio formation approaches are also observed.Design/methodology/approachThis study follows the methodology De Bondt and Thaler (1985) set out and uses the same methodological framework Wouassom et al. (2022) put forward. Nevertheless, this study does not focus on stocks. Still, it employs global equity indices from the viewpoint of an international investor who can switch between worldwide equity indices using a contrarian trading strategy.FindingsMy findings indicate that reversal strategies with overlapping portfolios are profitable over the entire sample period and every formation and holding period. These returns are highly statistically significant and vary considerably from one horizon to another. More importantly, the reversal strategies remain, on average, profitable and significant in the period post-1994 but are not particularly distinctive, which implies that the reversal effect survives the globalization impact and indicates that the integration of equity markets together with the international correlation among markets do not synchronize the prices reversal effect around the world given that.Research limitations/implicationsFurther work would be recommended to study a more extended period dating back to the nineteenth century or the Victorian Era, characterised by rapid economic development in almost every domain, to verify if reversal is historically compensation for carrying risks exclusively during contraction.Practical implicationsMy analysis takes on particular significance given the association between lagged market movement in share prices and investors’ optimism that appears among traders, generating an increasing reversal effect (Siganos and Chelley-Steley, 2006) and has direct implications for predicting and controlling trading costs associated with asset allocation strategies.Social implicationsThe difficulty with using the reversal strategy to uncover the long-term return reversal effects in the equity markets today resides in the fact that the globalization of the economy has fuelled the concentration of assets within institutional investors. The critical insight is that the concentration of equity in the hands of institutional investors activated international equity trading. These institutional investors seek to maximize their shareholder value from the opportunity by simultaneously dealing in many markets while constructing and holding portfolios that include assets from various countries using highly profitable investment strategies such as reversal.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to show an easily implemented contrarian strategy that switches back and forth between country indices and generates extraordinarily high abnormal returns of more than 8.86% per annum. We also show that these returns compensate for global risks and for investors ready to take them during contraction.

Optimism in Property Markets

House valuation involves forecasting household demand for a neighborhood, whereas commercial property valuation involves forecasting area economic activity. Yet, we show optimistic expectations for both. We investigate further possible disparities due to different cultures of home ownership, short, medium, and long-term investment horizons, and bullish or bearish trends. We use an experimental framework to demonstrate expectations are optimistic under all conditions. Buyers use trends to surmise future prices in bull markets, expect price increases in oscillating markets, and price reversals in bear markets, failing to anticipate price busts. Policy implications are important in preventing property boom-induced financial crises.

Does management tone matter in information disclosure? Evidence from IPO online roadshows in the SSE STAR market

This paper explores whether management tone in IPO online roadshows in the SSE STAR Market matters in information disclosure. We apply bag-of-words and machine learning methods to construct proxies for management tone, respectively. After conducting a series of empirical analyses, we find that management tone is positively associated with first-day stock returns and future operating performance after IPO. In additional analyses, we provide evidence that the information role played by management tone is transitory and that stock price reversals exist. Then, we document that investor sentiment has a mediating effect on the relationship between management tone and first-day stock returns after IPO. Finally, we demonstrate that compared with forward-looking statements, historical statements in management response texts provide more valuable information. Our research findings confirm that the management tone in IPO online roadshows plays an important information role, despite dramatic changes in information disclosure and stock offering systems in the SSE STAR Market.

Expiration day effects of stock and index futures on the Warsaw Stock Exchange before and in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the existence of expiration day effects of stock and index derivatives on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Event study analysis is employed to high-frequency data to check the occurrence of four types of anomalies: abnormal increase in trading volume and in intraday volatility of underlying stocks, price reversal and price shock. The study confirms that on expiration days trading volume of underlying stocks increase unusually during the time when final settlement prices of expiring futures are being calculated. Intraday volatility of stock prices is also abnormally high on expiration days. However, before 2020 this price effect occurred on expiration days during triple withing hour, while in the initial phase of COVID-19 pandemic it has been visible on expiration days only at the close and additionally at the beginning of the next trading session. The analysis of price reversal and price shock effects revealed that only the second anomaly is a phenomenon which constantly appears after futures expiration, indicating the distortion of stock prices on expiration days and their return to normal levels at the beginning of the next trading session. Division of the research period (2018-2020) into two parts allow to find out that after the outbreak of the pandemic, when the importance of hedgers’ activity on the futures market have increased, some of the analyzed anomalies have weakened and their duration have been shortened. However, distortions of underlying stock prices have been still visible at the close of the trading session on expiration days. This suggests that as long as the final settlement prices of stock future are equal to closing prices of underlying stocks, expiration day effects will occur on the WSE.

Mutual fund flows and government bond returns

We investigate daily flows to Israeli government bonds mutual funds, which are held primarily by retail investors. We divide the bonds into six categories: nominal/CPI-linked - short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term maturity. We find that unexpected daily net flows are contemporaneously correlated with price changes in all categories, with correlations ranging from 0.094 to 0.221 depending on the bond category. These price changes are significant, and they subsequently reverse fully or mostly within 10 trading days. The price reversal indicates that the initial price changes are due to “price pressure.” We find that these price distortions affect break-even inflation—a measure of inflation expectations. Our findings indicate that even government bonds are affected by retail price pressure.

Speculation Sentiment in Korea

This study measures speculative sentiment in the Korean stock market using the primary market of leverage exchange-traded funds (ETFs.) In the ETFs’ primary market, observable arbitrage activity corrects the mispricing between ETF shares and underlying assets. This arbitrage activity in the leveraged ETFs proxies for the scale and direction of speculative demand shocks. I have constructed a Korean version of the speculative sentiment index using a sample of leveraged ETFs that track the KOSPI200 index. The index shows a negative correlation with contemporaneous market returns and negatively predicts returns after 3 months. Additionally, I introduce a novel speculation sentiment index that considers investor-specific trading data and verify that the above results are primarily driven by speculative demand shocks initiated by individual investors. Compared to a study conducted on the U.S. stock market, this result shows that the Korean stock market experiences a relatively slower process of price reversion to its fundamental value after speculative demand shocks.

Mechanisms of Stock Selection and Its Capital Weighing in the Portfolio Design Based on the MACD-K-Means-Mean-VaR Model

When designing a stock portfolio, investors must select stocks with different characteristics and increasing price trends and weigh each capital. Both are fundamental to diversifying loss and profit. Therefore, the mechanisms that accommodate both are needed. Based on this, this research aims to design a stock selection and capital weighing mechanism using the MACD-K-means-Mean-VaR model. The moving average convergence–divergence (MACD) is used to analyze stock buying time, providing trend, momentum, and potential price reversal insights. Then, stocks with increasing price trends are clustered using K-means, a grouping simple pattern data method based on specific characteristics. The best stocks from each cluster are capital weighted using the mean value at risk (mean-VaR), a portfolio optimization model adjusting loss possibility to the investor’s acceptance tolerance. The mechanism is then applied to Indonesia’s 100 stock index data to analyze variable sensitivities and compare it with another model. The application reveals that all variables significantly impact portfolio return mean and VaR, suggesting the need for clustering and analyzing stock price movements in stock portfolio design. This research academically develops a portfolio design mechanism by clustering stocks and analyzing price movement trends. It enables investors to practically diversify and choose stocks with increasing price trends, reducing losses and increasing profit opportunities.

Corporate bond price reversals

I demonstrate empirically that corporate bond dealers mitigate adverse selection risk by passing potentially informed transactions to institutional investors. I contrast price reversals following days with abnormal trading volume across bonds with different information asymmetry. In informed trading, the part of reversal specific to high-volume days should increase with information asymmetry. In uninformed trading, there is no such effect. Following high-volume days when investors provide liquidity, the reversals are consistent with the former case. When dealers provide liquidity, I observe the latter. The results suggest that the informational content of bond prices is higher when dealers do not take inventory.

Under- or -overreaction: Investors’ response to black swan events

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to explore whether four categories of investors overreact or underreact to specific black swan events in the Vietnam Stock Exchange (HSX) and whether their trading patterns can predict stock returns. We find evidence of the short-term overreaction/underreaction on the HSX. In particular, the study's findings indicate that domestic institutions and securities dealers tend to exhibit overreaction shortly after domestic black swan events, such as tensions in the East Sea and the arrest of a big manipulator, but exhibit underreaction shortly after international events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia War. Conversely, foreign institutions tend to exhibit overreaction shortly after international events but exhibit underreaction shortly after domestic events. The outcome of this behaviour is that domestic institutions and securities dealers purchased the most and earned the highest return in the post-120-day period following the domestic black swan events, whereas foreign institutions gained the highest return in the post-120-day period following the global black swan events. Moreover, individual investors underreacted in all events and experienced negative returns over the window(+1, + 120). The findings also suggest that small firms tend to have greater price reversals than large firms. Finally, the study provides evidence of information leakage on the HSX.

Bitcoin market reactions to large price swings of international stock markets

This paper aims to investigate the linkage between Bitcoin market and stock markets. By employing high-frequency Bitcoin trading data, we find intraday Bitcoin price reversals following large price swings in stock markets, confirming the overreaction hypothesis. Specifically, Bitcoin market overreaction to developed stock markets is more prominent and persistent than that of the emerging stock markets. The subperiod analysis shows that network effect, investor sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and investor attention, are crucial determinants of overreaction. These findings suggest the interdependence between the Bitcoin market and stock markets, which could provide hedge opportunities for international investors.

Quantitative easing effectiveness: Evidence from Euro private assets

AbstractProponents of quantitative easing (QE) unconventional policy have rather overstated some evidence that structural time series models do not predict long‐term asset prices and yields as well as naive random walk forecasts, implying that predictions of price reversals cannot be profitable and, therefore, that QE effects are not transitory. Indeed, in this work we present evidence that naive models do not outperform structural vector autoregressive and Markov switching models in out‐of‐sample forecasting of corporate bond yields purchased by the European Central Bank, when the information set includes base money growth. It turns out that structural time series models provide additional information regarding the likelihood of price reversals, thus motivating investors to offset the effects of QE interventions if they perceive unconventional monetary policy regimes as temporary.

Investor attention and market reactions to early announcements in mergers and acquisitions

We focus on the market reaction to early announcements in mergers and acquisitions and find that acquiring firms attract substantial investor attention with their early announcements. The positive relationship between early announcements and takeover short-term value effect is more pronounced for early-announced deals with greater investor attention toward deal announcements. However, this relation is reversed after merger integration, leading to a lower long-run firm value. For early-announced deals with low investor attention, neither the boosting effect of short-term value effect nor the price reversal in the long run exists. Our findings support the price pressure hypothesis for early announcements.

A Study of the Abnormal Dividend Decisions of New Zealand Firms during COVID-19

We investigated the stock return risk associated with the various types of dividend decisions announced by New Zealand firms during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The sample includes a group of firms that initially announced cash dividends but a number of days later made announcements cancelling their payments. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis, we found that higher pre-pandemic payout policy significantly increased the likelihood of a cancellation, an omission or an increase decision. Higher growth and higher profitability reduced the probability of an omission and a reduction decision, respectively. Moreover, higher stock return volatility increased the likelihood of an omission, a reduction or an increase decision. Further event study analysis revealed that investors reacted more feverishly to the announcements of cancellation decisions than any other types of dividend decisions. Moreover, we report strong evidence of negative abnormal returns around the cancellation announcements followed by positive post-announcement price reversals, a pattern that is not observed for the omission announcements. This paper contributes to the literature by studying a cancellation sample and reveals, for the first time, significant shareholder risk associated with cancellation decisions, which was not observed for omission decisions. We alert managers to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of breaking a promise of dividend payout.

Market manipulation by rumormongers: Evidence from insiders’ stock selling

Using a large sample of data on insiders’ stock selling and rumors about A-share listed companies in China, this study empirically tests whether and how rumors about companies are used to manipulate the market in the context of insiders’ stock selling. We find that the probability of a rumor’s occurrence, especially that of a favorable rumor, significantly increases in the 30 days before the first transaction in a round of insiders’ stock selling and remains high for 30 days afterward, showing clear signs of manipulation. These results are robust to several endogeneity tests. The probability of manipulation via rumor increases with a company’s degree of information asymmetry. In addition, large-scale stock selling, centralized bidding, and transactions involving CEOs or chairmen (or their relatives) have a significantly higher probability of manipulation via rumor, while transactions made by directors, supervisors, or senior executives (but not their relatives) have a significantly lower probability of manipulation via rumor. Further examination shows that using rumor to manipulate the market increases insiders’ transaction returns but leads to stock price reversal in the long term.

Grabbing Investor Attention with Limited Resources: A Study of Small Cap Firms’ Communication Channels

This paper examines the communication strategies employed by small cap firms listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange. These small cap firms have great discretion in choosing their communication channels with investors and evolve in an environment with few information intermediaries. We investigate the use of three communication channels – press releases, conference calls, and social media – specifically surrounding earnings announcements. Our findings indicate that small cap firms utilize these three communication channels infrequently. However, when announcing positive earnings news, small cap firms are more likely to employ these channels, suggesting that firms communicate opportunistically. We find a positive association between the use of communication channels, particularly of social media, and measures of investor attention. Interestingly, while the use of communication channels is associated with positive stock returns surrounding earnings announcements, social media usage prior to earnings announcements is linked to subsequent stock price reversals. These findings provide insights into the communication practices of small cap firms and their implications for investor attention and market efficiency.

The Movement of IDX Agriculture (JKAGRI) During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a drastic correction in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) during the first quarter of 2020. This study analyzes the factors that influence the movement of IDX Agriculture (JKAGRI) during the pandemic in 2020. The study used secondary data (time series) obtained from the sites Investing.com, then it was analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results showed that simultaneously the independent variables GOLD, NYSE, FCPO3, and USD/IDR significantly influence the JKAGRI. While partially the variable gold price (GOLD), New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), crude palm oil price index (FCPO3) have a significant effect on the movement of IDX Agriculture (JKAGRI). However, the dollar exchange rate (USD/IDR) does not significantly influence the movement of IDX Agriculture (JKAGRI). Thus, Traders are advised to closely monitor their portfolios while maintaining a stop loss at a certain percentage based on their risk profile. In contrast to investors who are expected to wait patiently for an increase or buyback to lower the average price (the average down) when technically indicates a price reversal signal.
 
 Keywords: Indonesian Stock Exchange, Agriculture, Regression, Investors
 JEL: G11, O24, Q14

Price bubbles in lithium markets around the world

The global energy transition to low-carbon technologies for transportation is heavily dependent on lithium. By leveraging advances in time-series econometrics we show that lithium prices (carbonate and hydroxide) have recently experienced market explosive behaviors, particularly from 2016 to mid-2018, and in most lithium markets also from October 2021 to December 2022, thus, the global lithium markets are currently experiencing explosive dynamics. These explosive episodes are accompanied by market corrections and extreme uncertainty which, in the case of lithium, may put at risk the future continuous supply needed for manufacturing lithium-based batteries for the electric vehicle. Governments and private stakeholders could reduce uncertainty imposed by these unpredictable dynamics, for instance, by establishing public stabilization funds and setting up capital buffers that help to diversify operational and market risks induced by future price reversals. Such funds should be ideally located in portfolios, such as the global stock markets or other energy commodities, which exhibit idiosyncratic explosive dynamics unsynchronized with the episodes observed in lithium markets.

Impact of The Covid 19 Pandemic: Is There Overreaction in LQ 45 Stock?

The Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on various aspects of life, including the capital market which has caused a negative response on most stock exchanges around the world, including the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The Effecieny Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains that the price of a stock will always be reflected from the information available in the market or investors tend to be rational. However, dramatic events such as COVID-19 allow investors to overreact. The results showed that there was an overreaction in both winner and loser stocks in the LQ 45 group on the IDX in 3 months of observation since covid was announced as a pandemic. This overreaction is then followed by a price reversal even though it has not given a significant return after t+13 for both winner and losser stocks. The speed of price recovery (magnitude effect) after the price reversal on the loser stock is higher (faster) than the winner stock. The speed of this price recovery is significantly affected by the company's capital structure and share ownership of individual investors (local and foreign).

Random walk and modelling stock return

The debate on whether stock prices follow a random walk continues, becoming the foundation of modern portfolio theory. Supporters of the random walk theory still believe that modeling stock prices is a wasteful exercise. However, evidence from momentum pricing strategy and price reversals suggests otherwise. This study aimed to empirically explore the random walk theory in five international stock markets before and during the Covid-19 pandemic from June 30, 2017, to June 30, 2019, and January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021. A multivariate runs test and a generalised distribution function was applied to investigate the theory. The results revealed no significant difference between the observed S-statistics runs and the expected ones, concluding that it is not common to observe random walks in financial markets consistently. Hence price changes in financial markets are significantly affected not only based on new information and investors’ expectations but also by irrationalities that exist among market participants. These irrationalities can be modeled using a generalised distribution function to produce price patterns.