Return Movement Research Articles

Driven to distraction? The effect of simulated red light running camera flashes on attention and oculomotor control

Do similar factors influence the allocation of attention in visually sparse and abstract laboratory paradigms and complex real-world scenes? To explore this question we conducted a series of experiments that examined whether the flash that accompanies a Red Light Running Camera (RLRC) can capture observers' attention away from important roadway changes. Inhibition of Return (IOR) and eye movement direction served as indices of the spatial allocation of attention. In two experiments, participants were slower to respond to the brake lights of a vehicle in a driving scene when an RLRC flash occurred nearby or were slower to initiate eye movements to brake light signals (IOR effects). In a third experiment, we found evidence that less prevalent RLRC flashes disrupted eye movement control. Results suggest that attention can be misdirected as a result of RLRC flashes and provide additional evidence that findings from simple laboratory paradigms can predict the allocation of attention in complex settings that are more familiar to observers.

Investment Strategies of Different Holding Periods: Evidence from Stock Markets of Hong Kong, Korea, Shanghai, and Taiwan

Although there is abundant research focusing on estimating the level of returns on stock market, there is a lack of studies examining the comparison of stock return movements for short-term and long-term investment in the Asian stock market. The present study examines return on investment of different holding periods among selected stock markets in Asia. Based on the trading performance of key indices and market capitalization value, Korean Stock Exchange (KRE), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE), and Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) were selected for this study. In assessing the comparative output of the case stock markets, this study used ANOVA and post-hoc analysis to process time series data of daily, monthly, quarterly, semiannually and annually return of investments of indices of the case stock markets. The results of this study showed that there are significant differences in return on investment among the case stock markets in the given holding periods. While a country might have a higher return in short-term investment, it may not necessarily be suitable for long-term investment as evidenced by their performance from 2001 to 2012.

Overwater Movement of Raccoons (Procyon lotor) in a Naturally Fragmented Coastal Landscape

Procyon lotor (Raccoon) is a major predator of beach-nesting and colonial waterbirds on the Virginia barrier islands. An understanding of water as a barrier to inter-island movement by Raccoons will be essential to effective management of these predators in this naturally fragmented coastal environment. We examined 4 independent lines of direct evidence for Raccoon movement between 1999 and 2007: 1) locations of recaptured, ear-tagged Raccoons on both the islands and the adjacent mainland, 2) overland movements of radio-collared Raccoons, 3) inter-island movements of radio-collared resident Raccoons, and 4) movements of translocated Raccoons. We recaptured 78 of 177 ear-tagged island Raccoons, all on the same island as the initial capture. We also tagged and released 65 mainland Raccoons, none of which was ever recaptured on an island. We often observed overland movements >1 km per day by radio-collared animals on both the islands and the mainland. Nevertheless, only 3 of 51 (6%) collared animals (2 males and 1 female) moved overwater from the location where they were captured. None of the 4 Raccoons radio-collared on the mainland moved to an island. Although Raccoons in this system are highly mobile, overwater movements seem to be infrequent events; only 3 of 234 tagged/ collared island individuals moved between islands, and none of the 69 tagged/collared mainland individuals moved to an island. Finally, we observed return movements by 22 of the 32 (69%) animals (11 males and 11 females) that were translocated either from the mainland to a nearby island or between adjacent islands. Translocated animals exhibited a much greater tendency than resident animals to make overwater crossings. In all cases of overwater movement, the water channels were relatively shallow and relatively slow moving. None of the 335 marked animals in this study crossed a tidal inlet. The mobility observed here is consistent with the idea that the distribution of Raccoons on the islands has expanded in recent decades. Predation management on these islands will require a strategic approach that takes into account both island isolation and Raccoon mobility.

The Complexity of Refugees' Return Decision-Making in a Protracted Exile: Beyond the Home-Coming Model and Durable Solutions

This article challenges the static conception of repatriation by demonstrating the dynamic and complicated nature of refugees’ return decision-making through in-depth case studies of Liberian refugees in Ghana. Institutions dealing with refugees tend to depict repatriation as a ‘home-coming’, a natural return movement driven by refugees’ desire to go back to a homeland following the termination of the root causes of their forced displacement. Given the significant changes in their life during prolonged exile in Ghana, however, for the majority of Liberian refugees, the decision to repatriate or not is a complex interplay of their current social, familial, economic and political circumstances, in which nostalgic longing for a homeland has little space. The article argues for the necessity of replacing the sedentarist perception of repatriation with a more holistic understanding that captures the untidy and negotiated nature of refugees’ return decision-making. It also highlights temporary strategies employed by Liberian refugees in response to the repatriation pressure from refugee-policy-makers and invites recognition of the critical gap between refugees and UNHCR about what stands as a ‘solution’ for refugees’ protracted exile.

Size and Day-of-the-Week Effect in the Banking Industry: A Comparative Analysis Based on Economic Conditions

Several studies in empirical literature have examined the differences between large banks and small banks. In this study, we examine the differences in the day-of-the-week effects of stock prices of large banks as represented by the Keefe, Bruyette and Woods Index (KBW) and small banks as represented by the American Bankers Association NASDAQ Community Bank Index (ABAQ) in three successive economic periods: the pre-recession, recession and the post-recession. We find that the stock return movements of the two indices are similar to each other. Both the indices have very similar weekday effects in all three periods. We conclude that while there is more volatility in the KBW index, it is not reflected in any higher returns for larger bank shareholders. We further provide evidence that the ABAQ index and the KBW index levels are cointegrated which explains why the results on the returns appear so similar to each other.

Time-changed Lévy jump processes with GARCH model on reverse convertibles

For decades, financial institutions have been very motivated in creating structured high-yield financial products, especially in the economic environment of lower interest rates. Reverse convertible notes (RCNs) are the type of financial instruments, which in recent years first in Europe and then in the US – have become highly desirable financial structured products. They are complex financial structured products because they are neither plain bonds nor stocks. Instead, they are structured products embedding equity options, which involve a significant amount of asset returns' uncertainty. Given this fact, pricing of reverse convertible notes becomes a really big challenge, where both the general Black–Scholes option pricing model and the compound Poisson jump model which are designed to catch large crashes, are not suitable in valuing these kinds of products. In this paper, we propose a new asset-pricing framework for reverse convertible notes by extending the pure Brownian increments to Lévy jump risks for the underlying stock return movements. Our framework deals with time-changing volatilities of stock options with Lévy jump processes by considering the stocks' infinite-jump possibilities. We then use a discrete-time GARCH with time-changed dynamics Lévy Jump processes in order to derive the assets' valuations. The results from our new model are close to the market's valuations, especially with the normal-inverse-Gaussian model of the Lévy jump family.

News impact curve for stochastic volatility models

This paper proposes a couple of new methods to compute the news impact curve for stochastic volatility (SV) models. The new methods incorporate the joint movement of return and volatility, which has been ignored by the extant literature. The first method employs the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme and the other one employs the rejection sampling. The both methods are simple, versatile, and applicable to various SV models. Contrary to the monotonic news impact functions in the extant literature, the both methods give the U-shaped news impact curves comparable to the GARCH models. They also capture the volatility asymmetry for the asymmetric SV models.

Migration and Development in Asia and a Role for Australia

This paper argues that while the main drivers of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region will be a sound development policy and good governance, migration can play a facilitating role at a national, especially at a regional level within countries. It discusses the role of the demographic dividend and Asia-Pacific youth bulges in assisting development in the region and the potential role of migration in that context. It examines the evidence that migration has delivered developmental advantages to sending countries and regions through an analysis of the effects of remittances, diaspora, interactions and return movements. There also is, however, an evidence of brain drain effects having negative impacts. Nevertheless, it concludes that the potential positive effects of emigration on sending countries are being diluted because of poor quality governance of migration systems in the region. These include excessive rent taking at all stages of the migration process, corruption, lack of capacity in migration management and exploitation. The final part of the paper addresses the important issue of what needs to be done if the full potential of international migration to deliver development dividends to sending countries to the region is to be taken advantage of. This includes a change in the attitude towards migration which recognises its potential benefits, a more development-friendly migration policies at origins especially at destinations, capacity building and a parametric improvement in migration management, greater bilateral and multilateral cooperation and more evidence-based decision-making in policy and programme development. A role for Australia in this is also discussed. Migration is not a substitute for good governance and sound socio-economic policy in the development of Asia-Pacific nations, but it can have positive outcomes in poverty reduction and improving the lives and prospects of many people.

Turning Tourists into Performers: Revaluing agency, action and space in sites of heritage tourism

This paper describe a transition from specialised performance interventions – for example, GeoQuest and A Tour of Sardine Street (both 2010) – in heritage sites to a handing over of the tactics of those performances to general tourists and visitors for the making of their own performance-like counter-touristic visits. This change is based on a re-valuing; moving away from assumptions that tourists are essentially passive in making their visits and that the sites of those visits are neutral spaces to a valorisation of tourist visits as constructive and agentive and of the sites as places of ‘chorastic’ potential. The paper describes the use of a multi-modal research methodology; predominantly mixing participant observation and practice-as-research. It narrates the key moments of transition in the research: a double movement of exorcism and spectral return on a ‘mis-guided tour’ (Water Walk, 2010), the discovery that volunteer panel members were not simply observing tours but beginning to re-perform them, the shift from a dispersal of specialised, technical knowledge to a more generally accessible toolkit model exemplified by the publication of A Sardine Street Box of Tricks in 2011, and a series of experimental visits by the author (some accompanied by panel members) to heritage sites on which ‘tactics’ were both tested and new ones devised. The paper sets the emergence of a performative counter-tourism strategy as a development of practices and ideas informed by or originating in site-specific performance, contemporary Performance Studies and Tourism Studies, walking arts (including disrupted versions of the standard guided tour), and mythogeography.

A model for the spatial transmission of dengue with daily movement between villages and a city

Dengue is a re-emergent vector-borne disease affecting large portions of the world's population living in the tropics and subtropics. The virus is transmitted through the bites of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and it is widely believed that these bites occur primarily in the daytime. The transmission of dengue is a complicated process, and one of the main sources of this complexity is due to the movement of people, e.g. between home and their places of work. Hence, the mechanics of disease progression may also differ between day and night. A discrete-time multi-patch dengue transmission model which takes into account the mobility of people as well as processes of infection, recovery, recruitment, mortality, and outbound and return movements is considered here. One patch (the city) is connected to all other patches (the villages) in a spoke-like network. We obtain here the basic reproductive ratio (ℛ0) of the transmission model which represents a threshold for an epidemic to occur. Dynamical analysis for vector control, human treatment and vaccination, and different kinds of mobility are performed. It is shown that changes in human movement patterns can, in some situations, affect the ability of the disease to persist in a predictable manner. We conclude with biological implications for the prevention and control of dengue virus transmission.

Housing Market Volatility in the OECD Area: Evidence from VAR Based Return Decompositions

Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash ‡ow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news over the period 1970-2011. For the majority of countries news about future returns is the main driver, and both real interest rates and risk-premia play an important role in accounting for housing market volatility. Bivariate cross-country correlations and principal components analyses indicate that part of the return movements have a common factor among the majority of countries. We explain the results in terms of global changes in credit constraints and transactions costs as well as changes in monetary policy over this period. Among other things, our results shed new light on whether excessively low interest rates by the monetary authorities was a major cause for the housing boom up to 2006.

EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH OF PROPERTIES OF HYDRAULIC DRIVE FOR VALVES OF INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES

This paper describes a research stand and results of experimental research of single-acting hydraulic drive for valves of internal combustion engines. The research stand of the hydraulic valve drive was consisted of: typical valve drive for high-speed internal combustion engine, commercial hydraulic actuator, commercial hydraulic accumulator and electrically controlled hydraulic distributor, which controlled the flow of oil supply to the hydraulic actuator. Rexroth commercial servovalve was used as hydraulic distributor for this valve drive. Components of hydraulic valve drive were mounted to specially designed research sleeve. On this sleeve complete drive, which consisted of a hydraulic cylinder and servovalve, was mounted. Drive control was performed in an open loop with a use of rectangular control signal. Displacement of the valve was measured by an optical displacement sensor. Tests were performed for constant lift of the valve, supply pressure set in the range of 6 to 10 MPa and at fixed temperature of the working medium and different initial deflections of valve spring. The behaviour of the drive was researched for bipolar and a rectangular control signals. Such range of measurements was to determine inter alia: the impact of the supply pressure and the control signals values on the drive work. Obtained results were used to verify the simulation model in a wide range of variation of the characteristic parameters of the electro-hydraulic actuator. The results of experimental measurements like valve movement and pressures in the drive were shown and analysed in this paper. With a reference to the valve movement, a detailed calculations of the valve kinematics were performed. Special attention was given to the opening and closing velocities of the valve, depending on the servo control signal. Subsidence valve velocity during its return movement was calculated. This subsidence valve velocity is an important parameter in terms of the applicability of this drive for the internal combustion engines. Valve opening time delay in opposition to the current control signal was also specified and discussed. Obtained results allowed to conclude that the proposed drive provides acceptable kinematic parameters for high-speed engines at supply pressures of at least 8 to 10 MPa. During the measurements acceptable valve subsidence speeds were obtained. It was found that there is a possibility of adjustment of this parameter by setting the slider servovalve negative overlap. Results became the basis of development of the model of this type of the drive. Further simulation studies will allow to evaluate the applicability of such valve drive for internal combustion engines. Further simulation studies allow to compare the proposed solution with known literature hydraulic valve drives.

Empirical Evidence on the Importance of Aggregation, Asymmetry, and Jumps for Volatility Prediction

Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a number of recent papers have addressed volatility predictability, some from the perspective of the usefulness of jumps in forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen, Bollerslev and Diebold (2007), Corsi, Pirino and Reno (2008), Barndorff, Kinnebrock, and Shephard (2010), Patton and Shephard (2011), and the references cited therein. In this paper, we review the extant literature and then present new empirical evidence on the predictive content of realized measures of jump power variations (including upside and downside risk, jump asymmetry, and truncated jump variables), constructed using instantaneous returns, i.e., |r_{t}|^{q}, 0≤q≤6, in the spirit of Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) and Ding and Granger (1996). Our prediction experiments use high frequency price returns constructed using SP and our empirical implementation involves estimating linear and nonlinear heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) type models. We find that past large jump power variations help less in the prediction of future realized volatility, than past small jump power variations. Additionally, we find evidence that past realized signed jump power variations, which have not previously been examined in this literature, are strongly correlated with future volatility, and that past downside jump variations matter in prediction. Finally, incorporation of downside and upside jump power variations does improve predictability, albeit to a limited extent.

Collision Avoidance Smoothing: A Viscous-Elastic Model

This paper describes a fully automated function that analyzes a 5-axis toolpath and eliminates collisions going around obstacles, with an approach method to smooth variations in tool-axis movement based on the introduction of a viscous resistance that will slow down the return movement to the original position of the tool axis after the obstacle.

The Orthogonal Response of Stock Returns to Dividend Yield and Price-to-Earning Innovations

This study investigates how returns on the S&P 500 index respond orthogonally to dividend yield and price-to-earnings innovations. The unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis of monthly data from 1871 to 2012 shows that the response of returns on the S&P 500 index to dividend yield innovation, based on the 12-month horizon, is positive in the first three months, negative in the 4th through 7th months and positive again after that. The returns on the S&P 500 index are negative in the first five months following price-to-earnings shock. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate that dividend yield and price-to-earnings cause the movement in stock returns.

Multi‐generational long‐distance migration of insects: studying the painted lady butterfly in the Western Palaearctic

Long‐range, seasonal migration is a widespread phenomenon among insects, allowing them to track and exploit abundant but ephemeral resources over vast geographical areas. However, the basic patterns of how species shift across multiple locations and seasons are unknown in most cases, even though migrant species comprise an important component of the temperate‐zone biota. The painted lady butterflyVanessa carduiis such an example; a cosmopolitan continuously‐brooded species which migrates each year between Africa and Europe, sometimes in enormous numbers. The migration of 2009 was one of the most impressive recorded, and thousands of observations were collected through citizen science programmes and systematic entomological surveys, such as high altitude insect‐monitoring radar and ground‐based butterfly monitoring schemes. Here we useV. carduias a model species to better understand insect migration in the Western Palaearctic, and we capitalise on the complementary data sources available for this iconic butterfly. The migratory cycle in this species involves six generations, encompassing a latitudinal shift of thousands of kilometres (up to 60 degrees of latitude). The cycle comprises an annual poleward advance of the populations in spring followed by an equatorward return movement in autumn, with returning individuals potentially flying thousands of kilometres. We show that many long‐distance migrants take advantage of favourable winds, moving downwind at high elevation (from some tens of metres from the ground to altitudes over 1000 m), pointing at strong similarities in the flight strategies used byV. carduiand other migrant Lepidoptera. Our results reveal the highly successful strategy that has evolved in these insects, and provide a useful framework for a better understanding of long‐distance seasonal migration in the temperate regions worldwide.

Legal Status of the Refugees in India

India is not party to the 1951 Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol and does not have a national refugee protection framework. However, it continues to grant asylum to a large number of refugees from neighbouring States and respects UNHCR's mandate for other nationals, mainly from Afghanistan and Myanmar. While the Government of India deals differently with various refugee groups, in general it respects the principle for holders of UNHCR documentation.For some time now, India's concerns about security have had a more restrictive impact on asylum space in the country. Mixed migration flows have further complicated the identification and protection of refugees and UNHCR has significantly modified and increased its registration activities to cope with this and provide the necessary support to the Government. In the absence of a national legal and administrative framework, UNHCR, based in New Delhi, conducts refugee status determination (RSD) for asylum-seekers from non-neighbouring countries and Myanmar. UNHCR also has a presence in Chennai, Tamil Nadu in the south to support the voluntary repatriation of Sri Lankan refugees. Although India has a large population of stateless people, no accurate estimates of the number are available. UNHCR is working to identify and map stateless groups.The Government of India's approach to refugee issues results in different standards of protection and assistance among refugee groups. Tibetans and Sri Lankan refugees are protected and assisted by the Government, while UNHCR is directly involved with groups arriving from other countries (notably Afghanistan and Myanmar). Holders of documentation provided by UNHCR are able to obtain temporary residence permits from the authorities. However, the rise in the number of these refugees and asylum-seekers has not been accompanied by a commensurate increase in resources, compelling UNHCR to find innovative ways to meet both existing and emerging protection needs. Refugees and asylum-seekers often live in poverty, dispersed in urban areas, where they can face violence and exploitation. They do not have the legal right to work, but are able to find low-paid employment in the informal job market. Women and children appear to be at increasing risk of gender-based violence, partly as a result of sharing living space with strangers, due to rising accommodation costs. The number of unaccompanied minors approaching UNHCR has risen sharply. Child labour among refugee and asylum-seeking children is not uncommon, and is a serious protection concern. The number of refugees considering return to Sri Lanka is gradually increasing. Individual voluntary repatriation assistance is provided pending the establishment of organized return movement.

Expected Return Dan Risiko Pengujian Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCaPm) Pasar Saham Indonesia

The aim of the study is to assess the positive relation between expected return of asset or portofolio with its consumption beta, using consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) (Breden, 1979) in Indonesia Stock Exchange market. Hypothesis testing in this research utilizing two-step econometric models: frst pass regression and second pass regression. Based on the test, there is no linear and positive relation between expected return and consumption beta. The results suggest the limited correlation between the aggregate of consumption level and historical return movement. The research does not support CCAPM theory. The results indicate another factor aside from consumption in determining stock exchange return. It shows the fact that the small proportion of investor compared to the population of the country afects how the consumption data should be interpreted carefully since the data refect more on non-investor consumer consumption.

Updating knowledge on growth, population dynamics, and ecology of the blue and red shrimp, Aristeus antennatus (Risso, 1816), on the basis of the study of its instars

AbstractBoth national (GRUND) and international (MEDITS) trawl surveys carried out in the Italian seas since 1994 have produced consistent and rather homogeneous samples of red shrimps (per season, gear, and methods to ascertain abundance). Study and discussion of data regarding Aristeus antennatus (Risso, 1816) from Ligurian fishing grounds during the REDs project (FISH/2004/03‐32) made it possible to verify how key instars of the life of the female shrimp can be recognized from length frequency distributions derived from trawl surveys, allowing the age distributions to be split up. The segment of life that can be studied spans ages 1 and 10 and includes 20 instars, but larger sizes have been found which may extend the life span another 3 years. After age 5, only one growth instar per year occurs. Based on our study of the instars, we developed a size/age key for A. antennatus and used it to derive a von Bertalanffy growth function, total mortality rates and exploitation rates. Our results are related to basic biological and ecological characteristics of this species. Large individuals (females ≥50 mm CL at age 5 onward) present in a considerable percentage in the Ligurian Sea, are very important because (i) their fecundity is very high and therefore greatly influences the reproductive potential and (ii) they represent commercially the most valuable part of the catch. In addition, substantial relationships between the life history of A. antennatus and local oceanographic processes exist because the long life span of the species enlarges the area to which eggs and larvae are transported in surface currents, as well as the active return movements in deep waters where adult life mainly takes place. In the study area, the Northern Current provides the possibility of great horizontal displacement of A. antennatus eggs, larvae and early juveniles and, in general, attention to surface circulation may help to identify affinities in distant Mediterranean populations. This study presents A. antennatus in terms of a resource on the move at a Western Mediterranean scale.

ANALYSIS OF ASSET CLASSES THROUGH THE BUSINESS CYCLE

This study was driven by the dissimilar performance characteristics displayed by asset classes over the business cycle. The authors aim to explore assets classes on the grounds of a scientific literature review and a statistical analysis. Business cycles are divided into four stages to explore broad movements in returns of asset classes and a possible existence of asymmetrical effects of determinants within stages. Six main asset classes were analysed: US stocks, EAFE stocks, Bonds, Gold, Real Estate and Commodities. Monthly data from February 1976 to August 2011 were used for the study. The article combines business cycle and asset allocation theories by adding valuable information about performance of asset classes during different phases of the business cycle. Using the OECD Composite Leading Indicator as a business cycle measure, the authors demonstrate that different assets classes have different return/risk characteristics over the business cycle. The article demonstrates how to use the business cycle approach for investment decision-making. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator can provide significant information on market expectations and the future outlook; hence, results of this study can help every investor improve his/her performance and risk management.