Investment Returns Research Articles

Variation In Hospital Salary Expenditures And Utilization Changes After Private Equity Acquisition, 2005-19.

Private equity (PE) acquisitions of health care providers are often framed as a monolithic intervention, but firms' strategies for generating returns for investors may vary. In a difference-in-differences analysis using data from the 2005-19 Medicare hospital cost reports, we compared 242 US hospitals acquired by PE firms with 870 matched control hospitals not acquired by such firms. By firm, we examined changes in salary expenditures (reflecting staffing costs of delivering care) and cumulative charges (reflecting service utilization) associated with acquisition. On average, hospitals acquired by PE firms reduced salary expenditures, whereas control hospitals increased salary expenditures. At the firm level, salary expenditures declined between 12.9percent and 27.3percent of preacquisition levels. These reductions occurred across most clinical departments, although the specific departments and sizes of salary cuts varied across firms. Consistent with reduced staffing and capacity, most hospitals demonstrated a simultaneous decline in cumulative charges after acquisition-despite often raising their chargemaster rates (charges per service)-implying a reduced volume of services delivered. Some hospitals exhibited an alternative strategy of increasing cumulative charges without cutting salary expenditures. PE firms varied in management strategies, with most demonstrating cost cutting through salary expenditures.

Behavioral analysis of loan decision-making and influencing factors among food-producing new agricultural operating entities in China

The inherent fragility of the agricultural industry significantly restricts the financing channels available to new agricultural operating entities. Access to credit loans emerges as a pivotal means to address capital shortages among farmers and enhance production inputs. Drawing on survey data from 17,745 new agricultural operating entities engaged in food production in Lu’an City, Anhui Province, and agricultural households documented in the China Household Finance Survey Database, this paper employs the Logit model and the Heckman selection model to empirically analyze the loan decision-making behavior of these entities from two perspectives: loan willingness and credit scale. The research reveals that several key variables exert a significant positive influence on the borrowing willingness of grain producers. Specifically, the planting area range, input range per hectare, the rate range of return on investment, membership in cooperatives, and operation as a family farm all notably enhance their willingness to seek loans. Conversely, the net income per hectare and the number of crop types cultivated significantly diminish their inclination to borrow. Additionally, male operators and those with higher educational backgrounds demonstrate a stronger willingness to obtain loans. Furthermore, the study indicates that the planting area and membership in cooperatives also positively correlate with the scale of loans secured by these agricultural operating entities. Therefore, from the perspective of food security, it is essential to cultivate food-producing new agricultural operating entities. This requires a focus on the counter-cyclical adjustment of financial support, increasing credit support during years of low investment returns. Additionally, it is necessary to develop multiple forms of moderate-scale operations, enhance policy support, and boost the production enthusiasm of food-producing new agricultural operating entities.

Return smoothing in pooled annuity products

Abstract While trends in human longevity and volatile capital markets have verified the need for guaranteed income in retirement, existing literature on guaranteed contracts shows that such product designs can be costly. Pooled annuity products, where participants share mortality and investment risks and returns, offer a promising alternative to standard guaranteed products. However, challenges remain for pooled schemes, including highly volatile incomes, especially with significant equity investments. We introduce a pooled annuity product to provide pensioners with a lifetime income characterized by smooth investment returns. Our proposed design builds on the advantages of sharing mortality risk while incorporating equity investments with return smoothing mechanisms. Based on Australian data, we establish transparent and costless minimum guarantees on market returns using a zero-cost collar option which sets upper and lower bounds on market returns and constrains the fund value at any moment. The pension savings are divided into group-self annuitization (GSA) and smoothing accounts. The GSA account provides life-long retirement benefits, while the smoothing account adjusts the GSA benefits within specified bounds. Our method uses the smoothing account as part of the pooled savings, not backed up by the insurer, which helps to minimize guarantee costs through a zero-cost collar option. Results show that retirees face a trade-off regarding their annuity payouts: while smoothing can lead to more stable payments and reduced equity risk, it also means giving up upside gains to buy downside protection.

Artificial Intelligence Based Behavioural Finance in Shaping Investment Strategies to Analysis of Key Biases and Heuristics

This paper explores the job of behavioural finance in forming investment strategies zeroing in on key predispositions and heuristics. behavioural finance looks at what mental elements and inclinations mean for monetary choices, frequently wandering from level-headed assumptions. Conventional money expects objective way of behaving pointed toward augmenting returns while limiting dangers; in any case, genuine financial backer way of behaving habitually strays from this ideal because of mental easy routes and predispositions. This study examines critical predispositions like overconfidence, loss aversion, mental accounting, and herd behaviour, exploring their effect on market elements and individual financial backer results. By understanding these predispositions, financial backers and monetary consultants can foster techniques that adjust better to financial backer brain science, possibly prompting more predictable investment results and further developed portfolio the executives. This study explores the influence of behavioral biases on investment decision-making using the PMBAC (Probabilistic Modeling and Behavioral Analysis for Cognitive biases) framework. Key biases, such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and herding behavior, are examined to understand their impact on market performance and investor returns. The analysis reveals that overconfidence occurred in 78% of the cases, resulting in an average return impact of -25%, while loss aversion occurred in 85% of instances, leading to a -5% return impact. Herding behavior, observed in 65% of the cases, was associated with a 15% return impact, showing that following the crowd can lead to short-term gains but greater long-term risks. The study also identifies the role of other biases such as mental accounting (55% occurrence, -3% return impact), anchoring (72% occurrence, -10% return impact), and status quo bias (63% occurrence, -2% return impact). In terms of market performance, herding behavior was linked to a 40% overvaluation, while loss aversion contributed to a 10% market overvaluation. The findings highlight the pervasive nature of these biases in financial decision-making and their significant consequences on risk-adjusted returns, with some biases leading to a negative impact on returns and others fueling market bubbles.

Behavioral Biases in Investment Decisions: A Mixed-Methods Study on Retail Investors in Emerging Markets

Retail investment in emerging markets has experienced rapid growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing public awareness of financial management. However, behavioral biases often influence retail investment decision-making, such as overconfidence and herding, which can undermine portfolio performance. This study aims to identify the key behavioral biases affecting retail investors' decision-making in emerging markets and analyze their impact on investment performance. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a quantitative survey of 200 retail investors with in-depth interviews to gain qualitative insights. The results reveal that overconfidence bias dominates, with a prevalence of 70%, followed by herding bias at 50%, anchoring at 40%, and loss aversion at 60%. Overconfidence bias showed a significant positive correlation with investment returns (r = 0.65, p < 0.01), while herding (r = -0.48, p < 0.03), anchoring (r = -0.35, p < 0.05), and loss aversion (r = -0.60, p < 0.02) had negative impacts on portfolio performance. This research contributes to the behavioral finance literature by highlighting the unique conditions of emerging markets, such as low financial literacy and limited access to information, which exacerbate the effects of behavioral biases. As a practical implication, the development of behavioral finance-based educational programs is recommended to help investors understand and manage these biases. Furthermore, future research is encouraged to explore the use of alternative data, such as social media, to monitor behavioral trends in real-time

LEGAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SHARI'AH INSURANCE INVESTMENT ACCORDING TO FIQH MUAMALAH

The principle of Sharia insurance is mutual assistance or mutual protection, where members set aside their funds as contributions related to tabarru' (charitable donations). Investments in insurance companies can be represented in the form of portfolios. A portfolio is a collection of integrated investment forms aimed at gaining investment returns. The primary objective of an investment portfolio is to achieve high returns with low risk levels to meet obligations to policyholders and for the growth of the company. Meanwhile, profitability depicts the company's ability to generate profits through all available capabilities and resources. Sharia-compliant insurance companies like Sunlife Sharia Insurance offer investment opportunities to customers through various insurance products. Each product has different contractual agreements, some requiring customers to make investments while others do not. Since Sharia-compliant insurance products containing investment elements are still relatively new, detailed explanations regarding the contracts and implementation of investments in the insurance company are necessary.The author uses a research method that includes qualitative research, which is descriptive in nature. The Fatwa of the National Sharia Council Number 21/DSN-MUI/X/2001 Regarding General Guidelines for Sharia Insurance states that Sharia insurance (ta'min, takful, or tadhamun) refers to mutual protection and assistance among individuals or parties through investments in the form of tabarru' funds that provide a return pattern to address specific risks through contracts (agreements) that comply with Sharia. Therefore, being insured is permitted in Sharia law because its fundamental principles encourage everything that strengthens the bonds among humans and alleviates their disasters, as mentioned in the Quran, Surah Al-Maidah, verse 2.

An A-Share Board Chasing Strategy Based on the JoinQuant Platform

The price limit system sets a limit on the price fluctuation of stock prices to ensure the stable operation of the securities market. Current research mainly focuses on the impact of various price limit policies on the stock market, but research on short-term investment strategies and methods for price limit stocks is still insufficient. Since the proportion of people who can get great investment returns in the Chinese stock market is very low, this paper aims to explore the stocks with good liquidity on the stopping stocks to construct investment strategies. In this paper, five important stock factors are identified through the multi-factor stock selection method, and then through the Join Quant platform with a back testing method, we finally get a good excess return and determine the value range of these five factors. Based on the above research, people can provide a good stop trading strategy for individual investors. This strategy can be called as a board chasing strategy, which can help investors to get high investment returns in a short period of time.

Countermeasures for Commercial Pension Insurance under Negative Interest Rates

In the past 20 years, the global interest rate benchmark has continuously declined. The low-interest-rate environment has had a significant impact on the asset-liability management of the insurance industry. A declining interest rate environment lowers investment returns for insurance companies. In cases of severe yield mismatch, insurance companies are also highly vulnerable to risks associated with interest rate spreads. This article points out the actual negative interest rate environment currently faced by China's pension insurance industry, analyzes the causes of interest rate spread risk, and finally puts forward feasible policy recommendations from the perspectives of companies and regulation.

Enhancing infrastructure project outcomes through optimized contractual structures and long-term warranties

PurposeThis study delves into the influence of contractual frameworks on infrastructure project timelines and evaluates the role of long-term warranty agreements in maintenance efficacy. It underscores the correlation between construction contract structures and prevalent project delays, advocating for a revision in the allocation of responsibilities to mitigate such delays effectively.Design/methodology/approachWhile previous research has explored individual aspects of construction management, such as contractor incentives and risk allocation, our study uniquely integrates these elements to develop a comprehensive model that includes the effects of long-term warranty agreements and penalty clauses.FindingsThe findings advocate for contract revisions that entail clearly articulated responsibilities and thorough impact assessments, aimed at enhancing the efficiency of project execution and optimizing infrastructure investment returns. Concrete examples are provided from large-scale infrastructure and public works maintenance projects, illustrating the benefits of well-defined penalty clauses in curbing delays and ensuring sustained quality through long-term warranties. Our results demonstrate that optimized contractual structures can significantly reduce project delays and enhance maintenance effectiveness.Originality/valueThis study addresses significant gaps in understanding construction contract management dynamics, especially in transportation infrastructure. It rigorously analyzes how penalty clauses and long-term warranties impact contractor behavior and project outcomes. Key findings show that the benefits of long-term warranties, including social advantages, depend heavily on the strictness of penalty clauses. Innovatively, it employs a First-Price Sealed-Bid Auction framework with empirical data from various case studies, enhancing contract structure optimization for better stakeholder alignment and infrastructure integrity. These insights notably advance construction contract management methodologies.

Based on EVA Model's Enterprise Value Assessment: A Case Study of CATL

With the research, development, and promotion of green and low-carbon technologies, renewable energy has become the pillar of global low-carbon economic growth. In the context of vigorously developing new energy vehicles, the shipments of the power battery market in China and even globally have maintained a high growth rate and achieved remarkable results. In today's rapidly developing era, accurately assessing the value of new energy enterprises becomes particularly crucial. Such assessments are not only of great significance to investors pursuing potential investment returns but also play a non-negligible role for managers who wish to enhance corporate performance through management. A deep understanding of the value of new energy enterprises is of paramount importance. Therefore, this paper analyzes the enterprise value of CATL based on the EVA model, hoping to provide a reference for related fields.

A Comparative Analysis Of Active And Passive Investing Strategies In Dana Pensiun XYZ (Dapen XYZ)

The study aims to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of active vs. passive investment strategies in the context of pension funds, aimed at providing insights into the dynamic discourse surrounding active and passive investment. Through an exploration of empirical data and scientific discourses, the study highlights the potential benefits and limitations of each strategy, ultimately contributing to the informed decision-making process for pension fund managers. The study will also use the Markowitz model and efficient boundary methods to analyze and optimize investment strategies, focusing on risk, cost and cost management, and investment strategy. The analysis will also provide insights that can be done for fund managers to target higher investment returns, in terms of influencing company decisions and behavior to implement long-term investment strategies by reallocating some assets to other investment strategies

Numerical Evaluation of Adverse Effects of Economic Fluctuations on the Investment Returns of Insurance Industry in Nigeria

Numerical Evaluation of Adverse Effects of Economic Fluctuations on the Investment Returns of Insurance Industry in Nigeria

THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII): AN ANALYSIS FROM 2010 TO 2023

Introduction: Sharia investment activities become one of the most promising economic activities. This is proven from the resilience of sharia capital market activities, which have remained strong despite the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic. This research examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Method: This research used a quantitative approach with time series data for the period of January 2010 to December 2023. Specifically, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method was employed to examine both the long-term and short-term effects, as well as the shocks in macroeconomic variables on Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Results: This study indicate that in the long term, the exchange rate, IHSG and WGP variables have a significant positive impact on JII, while the inflation variable has a significant negative impact. Conversely, the WGP variable shows an insignificant negative impact on stock movements rates within JII. In the short term, however, the variables of inflation, exchange rate, IHSG, COP (Crude Oil Prices) and WGP do not have any impact on the movement of shares listed on JII. Conclusions and Suggestions: The findings of this research encourage investors to pay more attention to the movement of macroeconomic rate variables and information from companies related to financial reports before making a decision to invest their capital. The inflation, exchange rate, and IHSG variables can be utilized as references in decision making because better movement of the IHSG and exchange rate and stable inflation are able to provide optimal returns for investors.

Climate-Smart Agricultural Finance (CSAF): A model for sustainable investments in agriculture

Climate-Smart Agricultural Finance (CSAF) integrates environmental risk assessments into agricultural lending models to promote sustainability and climate resilience. This paper explores the significance of CSAF in mitigating climate-related risks, improving farm productivity, and enhancing long-term economic stability for both farmers and investors. It outlines the mechanisms through which CSAF promotes sustainable agriculture, such as the use of green bonds, sustainability-linked loans, and carbon credit financing. Additionally, it analyzes the benefits of CSAF, including improved climate resilience, risk mitigation, and financial returns for investors. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving CSAF models, emphasizing financial inclusion, enhanced data collection, and public-private partnerships to promote wider adoption. CSAF offers a promising path toward building a more sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the face of climate change.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor Equity Risk Premium Perusahaan Sektor Kesehatan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the determinants of equity risk premium among healthcare sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period from 2011 to 2022. The equity risk premium, a crucial concept in investment decision-making, represents the additional return investors require for holding risky assets compared to risk-free assets. The study uses independent variables such as book to market equity ratio, beta, leverage, and firm size to understand their influence on the equity risk premium. This research adopts a quantitative approach, utilizing panel data analysis to evaluate the relationships between the variables. The sample is selected using purposive sampling, focusing on healthcare companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange that have published financial statements for the years 2011 to 2022. The results of the study indicate that beta significantly affect the equity risk premium in the healthcare sector. However, book to market equity ratio, leverage, and firm size do not show a significant impact on the equity risk premium. The findings contribute to the literature by providing insights into the unique determinants of the equity risk premium in the healthcare sector, particularly in the context of the Indonesian market. These insights are valuable for investors seeking to optimize their portfolios and manage risk effectively, as well as for companies aiming to improve their financial performance and investor relations.

Research on Predicting Stock Market Profitability Changes Based on Machine Learning

The expansion of the market in our country has led to rapid economic growth, and many companies have begun to seek foreign investment for themselves. What investors are given is an invisible but very useful thing - stocks. However, stocks are unpredictable and subject to many influences, making it difficult for investors to predict whether the stock trend will decline or rise. It is uncertain whether investors will make a profit or lose money. The development of artificial intelligence technology has played a crucial role in driving stock model prediction. With the development and gradual maturity of machine learning technology, machine learning models are used for efficient and accurate analysis of massive data in the stock market, thereby achieving data mining in the stock market, analyzing changes in stock returns, and predicting them to improve investor returns.

Predicting multi-frequency crude oil price dynamics: Based on MIDAS and STL methods

Accurate prediction of crude oil prices is important for national energy security and socioeconomic development. Research on crude oil price forecasting has primarily focused on the overall price, overlooking the differentiated investment needs of different entities. To solve this problem, we introduce the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method into the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model. This enables us to more accurately analyze the predictive capability of predictors for crude oil prices at different frequencies. Selected predictors include the Dow Jones Index, US Dollar exchange rate, economic policy uncertainty, related crude oil and energy prices, carbon asset prices, and investor attention. Empirical results indicate that these predictors significantly enhance the forecasting accuracy across all components, with the strongest impact in the trend component. Interestingly, a lag effect is observed in the predictors' impact on the seasonal and residual components, but not on the trend component. Moreover, we calculate the duration of each predictor's effectiveness for different components of crude oil prices, distinguishing short-term and long-term effective predictors. This research offers novel insights into the design of crude oil price forecasting models, which is crucial for enhancing investor returns and maintaining stability in the energy market.

INTEREST RATES AND INVESTOR RETURNS: A STUDY OF DYNAMICS IN ISLAMIC BANKING

This study aims to evaluate the effect of interest rates on stock returns for investors in Islamic banking in Indonesia. The study employs a descriptive quantitative method and utilizes simple regression analysis to evaluate the impact of interest rates on investor stock returns. The findings indicate that fluctuations in interest rates do not affect the stock returns of investors in Islamic banking in Indonesia. This can be attributed to the fact that Islamic banks operate under a profit-sharing system rather than an interest-based system. Furthermore, Indonesia's predominantly Muslim population places significant importance on Sharia compliance, which serves as a primary consideration for investors in Islamic banking. This indicates that interest rates do not influence investors interest in investing in Islamic banks.

A indústria brasileira de private equity: Market timing para desinvestimento pós IPO

This is a descriptive, quantitative study that used as a database information from Equity Investment Funds (EIF) and records of 49 companies supported by Private Equity (PE) and Venture Capital (VC) in Brazil, between the years 2000 and 2020, which carried out an IPO and were fully divested. The results show that 2.7 years is the approximate time for total divestment - close to the 3 years of the US market, in addition to the fact that when the shares held by the PE/VC Funds were fully divested, the prices of the shares were higher than the prices at the IPO and, finally, that the exits resulted in positive abnormal returns for investors. Therefore, this study brings contributions to society and to the Applied Social Sciences, as it is innovative in measuring the Market Timing of divestment in the PE/VC industry in Brazil, as well as filling a gap in the internal literature and perhaps assisting researchers interested in further exploring this subject.

Too naïve to NAV? Performance display and capital misallocation

AbstractWe find that mutual fund flows respond to price returns (changes in net asset value per share or NAV returns) that are widely displayed in practice, whereas total fund returns include both price returns and fund distributions. NAV return‐chasing is not driven by tax considerations or alternative performance and risk metrics and leads to suboptimal investment performance. Additionally, NAV return‐chasing generates price pressure on funds’ stock holdings. These findings suggest that more prevalent displays of total investment returns could improve investor decision‐making, especially for less sophisticated investors.