Return Expectations Research Articles

Walking activity after multilevel orthopedic surgery in children with cerebral palsy.

To determine how surgical burden and preoperative factors affect the recovery of walking activity after multilevel orthopedic surgery (MLS). In this retrospective study, inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of cerebral palsy, MLS, and walking activity monitoring using a StepWatch device within 12months pre-MLS and 24months post-MLS. The outcome measure was total mean strides per day normalized to age and Gross Motor Function Classification System level. Pre- and postoperative walking activity were compared using unpaired t-tests; the effects of preoperative predictors and surgical burden on the recovery of walking activity were evaluated using regression analysis. Participants included 178 children (mean age 12years 10months [SD 8years 7months; range 4-20years]; 91 males, 87 females). On average, children returned to baseline walking activity 3months after low-burden surgery and 1year 2months after high-burden surgery. Postoperative walking activity was higher for children who had surgery at a younger age and those with a higher preoperative mobility function. The burden of MLS was found to be inversely related to the time to recovery of postoperative walking activity. These findings provide evidence to help clinicians set expectations for return to function post-MLS. Further study is necessary to investigate the impact of postoperative factors on walking activity recovery. High-burden surgeries lead to longer recovery than low-burden surgeries. Younger children recover walking activity faster after multilevel orthopedic surgery. Children with high preoperative mobility function recover walking activity faster after surgery.

Changes in investors risk-taking behavior during Indonesian economic recession due to the Covid-19 in 2020

This research discusses the differences in investor risk-taking behavior in Indonesia before and during the economic recession caused by the Covid-19. This pandemic began to infect Indonesia in 2020. Investor risk-taking behavior consists of three criterias, that are return expectation, risk tolerance and risk perception. Factors that can influence investor risk-taking behavior in this study are the economic recession itself and the characteristics of investors. While the characteristics of investors are seen from their status, namely age, gender, work status, marital status, education level, income, net worth and length of investment. In this study, questionnaires were distributed targeting investors in Indonesia. It was found that in fact the Covid-19 pandemic caused changes in investors risk-taking behavior, which included returning expectations and risk tolerance to decrease and risk perception to increase. Characteristics of investors Indonesian in general, it has no effect on investors' risk-taking behavior. Of the ten characteristics of investors, only two correlates with one of the criteria, namely profession and gender. It was found that the characteristics of investors did not have a positive effect because the majority of investors in this study were members of investment, money markets and capital markets communities. They join many of these communities, so that the exchange of information and discussions between one community and another will be affected. Investors’ decision making also based on the results of discussions in the community.

Practical Applications of Risk Tolerance, Return Expectations, and Other Factors Impacting Investment Decisions

In <b><i>Risk Tolerance, Return Expectations, and Other Factors Impacting Investment Decisions</i></b>, from the Spring 2021 issue of <b><i>The Journal of Wealth Management</i></b>, authors <b>Sam Sivarajan</b> and <b>Oscar De Bruijn</b> of <b>Alliance Manchester Business School</b> seek to determine how to ensure greater fidelity between an investor’s true risk appetite and the portfolio selected by an advisor. To do so, they first assess whether using a risk tolerance questionnaire, a common method, can accurately predict investor behavior. They review alternative variables and their relationship to an investor’s individual risk appetite by surveying and interviewing investors and advisors. After aggregating and analyzing the data, the authors determine that risk tolerance questionnaires typically are not valuable in predicting investor risk-taking behavior. However, certain factors, including demographic data, return expectations, and investment experience, were effective predictors of such behavior. The authors used these findings to develop a framework designed to assist investors and their advisors in selecting a portfolio that is aligned with an investor’s personal risk tolerance and goals.

The importance of a continuous belief-update mechanism on crowdfunding with financial returns

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to add to the existing literature about whether and how a continuous belief-update mechanism affects investors' risk perceptions in crowdfunding. The authors build on existing literature on the impact of a continuous belief-update mechanism on return expectations and risk perceptions, as a result of the funders' personal return and risk experiences, and apply this approach to the crowdfunding area. The authors thus add two specific insights about these dynamic new markets. First, the authors measure the perceived risk along multiple dimensions. Second, the authors consider how perceived risk differs across experienced investors and inexperienced investors, using two levels of analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a unique data set of survey respondents on crowdfunding with financial returns. The data set covers Germany, Poland and Spain. Survey data were derived by market research conducted in two stages. The first stage consists of two questions asked within an omnibus survey conducted by computer-assisted telephone interviews. In the second stage, multiple questions (including QA.1 and QA.2 and demographics) were included in an online survey or computer-assisted web interview for the same three countries.FindingsThe authors find that experienced investors perceive risks at lower levels than users that are aware of crowdfunding, but have not yet had the experience of an actual investment. The authors also find that investors, who invest larger proportions of their savings in crowdfunding with financial returns, perceive risks even lower than “lighter” investors, for the majority of risks the authors investigate.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited in three European countries and explores crowdfunding with financial returns only.Practical implicationsThe study suggests that investors' participation and activity in crowdfunding with financial returns can be increased, either via providing incentives for “first investment” or via the creation of investment simulators.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the following three areas. First, the authors shed new evidence on the dynamics of crowdfunding with financial returns and explore how decisions are being made in a context of reverse information asymmetries. Second, the authors explore how the “crowd” reshapes risk perceptions via a belief-update mechanism; this is of high importance under the absence of traditional financial intermediaries, which increases the severity of information asymmetries. Third, the authors enrich literature associated with how laypeople take investment decisions, showing how prior experience affects investment decision making.

Online information about the management of anterior cruciate ligament ruptures in Australia: A content analysis

BackgroundMost people who suffer an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury search for information online. ObjectivesSummarise the proportion of webpages on ACL rupture management that present evidence-based information. DesignContent analysis. MethodsWe examined webpage information on ACL ruptures identified through (1) Google searches using terms synonymous with ‘anterior cruciate ligament rupture’ and searching ‘knee surgeon’ linked to each Australian capital city, and (2) websites of professional associations. The primary outcome was the proportion of webpages that suggest people can return to at least some form of sport with non-surgical management. Secondary outcomes included webpage information on return to sport with ACL reconstruction (ACLR) and non-surgical management, benefits, harms, and risk of osteoarthritis related to these options, and activity modification. ResultsOut of 115 webpages analysed, 48% suggested people can return to at least some form of sport with non-surgical management. Almost half of webpages suggested most people will return to some form of sport following ACLR (41%) and mentioned benefits of ACLR (43%). Fewer webpages mentioned benefits of non-surgical management (14%), approximately two in three people return to pre-injury level of sport following ACLR (4%), risk of re-injury following ACLR (23%), most people return to sport within 9 months of ACLR (27%), activity modification as a management approach (20%), and ACLR will reduce the risk of osteoarthritis (23%). ConclusionMost online information on ACL rupture management isn't aligned with the best available evidence. Inaccurate information could mislead patients' treatment choices and create unrealistic expectations for return to sport.

Expectations for Return to Work Predict Return to Work in Workers with Low Back Pain: An Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis.

Purpose Low back pain is associated with disability and lost productivity due to inability of workers to return to work. Personal recovery expectation beliefs may be associated with return to work outcomes in those with low back pain at high risk for chronic disability. We aimed to (1) assess whether workers' expectations for return to work, following a low back pain episode, are associated with subsequent return to work; and (2) explore the relationships between return to work expectations and other prognostic factors in their association with work outcomes.Methods We conducted an Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis using data from five prospective cohort studies identified by a Cochrane prognostic factor review. A one-stage IPD meta-analysis approach was applied. Multi-level mixed effects models were used to determine the unadjusted and adjusted associations between expectations and return to work (logistic regression) and time to return to work (parametric survival models with Weibull distribution).Results The final dataset included 2302 participants. Positive expectations for return to work were associated with return to work at follow-up in both unadjusted (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.95; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.21, 3.95) (n = 2071) and comprehensively adjusted (OR 2.01; 95% CI 1.46, 2.77) (n = 1109) models. Similar findings were identified for shorter length of time to return to work in both unadjusted (HR 2.40; 95% CI 2.09, 2.75) (n = 1156) and minimally adjusted (HR 2.43; 95% CI 2.12, 2.79) (n = 1154) models.Conclusions Results suggest workers with low expectations for return to work are at increased risk for long-term work disability.

Factors Accountable for Non-Participation in the Stock Market: Identification and Ranking

Non-Participation in the Stock (NPS) market is a serious concern especially with the rising burden of debt in general and NPA in particular in the Indian economy. This paper is an attempt to address the problem of NPS. Identification of factors accountable for NPS is the first step to resolve the problem. Ranking is obviously the second step so that the problem can be resolved in the sequential manner. The current study identifies: willingness to invest, cash availability, knowledge of the equity market, expectation of returns, trust on the market and risk in the market. The factors are delineated in the order of the priority. Willingness to invest in the stock market come out to be more important reason for NPS and risk in the market happens to be the least important factor in the pecking order of factors for NPS. A multi-criteria decision making tool, Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) is applied to set the identified factors into the order of their relevance for NPS. The findings of the study have unique attributes in terms of newer set of factors and the method of ranking them. The relevant factors for NPS identified in the current study can be responded with the appropriate change or revision in the guidelines and policies to address the problem of NPS. Moreover, one of the major implications of the study is that the factors can be taken care of in the step wise manner as compared to taking up all at the same time.

Correcting market failure? Stalled regeneration and the state subsidy gap

This paper develops the neologism state subsidy gap to underscore the necessity of state intervention in the formation and potential closure of rent gaps. The state subsidy gap is the economic gap that must be bridged by the state to make a currently unviable urban investment scenario potentially profitable for private developers. The pertinence of this conception is particularly apparent in old industrial, relatively impoverished cities where global capital is less likely to dump its surpluses with secure expectation of profitable returns. The issue is exacerbated in economically risky neighbourhoods encompassing fragmented land ownership, poor infrastructure and large-scale areas of urban devalorisation. Such conditions necessitate substantial derisking public intervention if ‘market failure’ is to be addressed—yet success is never guaranteed and is far from universal. It is argued that much closer attention to the stalling, interruption or failure of urban regeneration projects is imperative given the extent of public expenditure and the limited social outcomes arising from attempts to correct market failure. Here, the concept of the state subsidy gap shows its value, shedding light on unjust social outcomes, exposing capitalism’s inherent vulnerabilities, and illustrating the dependence of private capital on public interventions for its reproduction.

Equity Return Expectations and Financial Wealth Holdings of U.S. Households

Abstract This paper examines the association between stock market return expectations and financial wealth holdings of older adults using the 2016 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Our study finds that less than 30% of individuals assigned a greater than 50% probability that the market will earn a positive nominal return in the following year. However, considerable heterogeneities were observed across racial/ethnic groups. Health status, the cognitive functioning of older adults, and expectations of positive stock market return were positively associated with greater financial wealth holdings among households. Our study also finds that older age, and being female were associated with a higher probability of expected equity returns in the following period. Health status, cognition, and equity return expectations were positively associated with the financial wealth holdings of households. African Americans, Hispanics, and other races were negatively associated with the probability of equity return expectations and financial wealth holdings when compared with the reference group of non-Hispanic Whites. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by applying a unique mathematically derived measure of future return expectations, and extends the literature on equity return expectations and the financial portfolios of households. The negative association between being African American or Hispanic and financial wealth holdings is concerning. The findings from this study inform policy makers, and underscore the need for prioritizing programs and policies that can be play a critical role in building human capital, in promoting financial capability, and in bridging the financial wealth gap for households belonging to the disadvantaged and underserved racial ethnic groups.

Why Do People (Not) Invest? The Role of Return and Risk Expectations

Why Do People (Not) Invest? The Role of Return and Risk Expectations

Nomen Est Omen? How and When the Fluency of Company Names Affects Return Expectations

Nomen Est Omen? How and When the Fluency of Company Names Affects Return Expectations

PENDEKATAN METODE MARKOWITZ UNTUK OPTIMALISASI PORTOFOLIO DENGAN RISIKO EXPECTED SHORTFALL (ES) PADA SAHAM SYARIAH DILENGKAPI GUI MATLAB

A portfolio is a combination of two or more securities as investment targets for a certain period of time with certain conditions. The Markowitz method is a method that emphasizes efforts to maximize return expectations and can minimize stock risk. One method that can be used to measure risk is Expected Shortfall (ES). ES is an expected measure of risk whose value is above Value-at-Risk (VaR). To make it easier to calculate optimal portfolios with the Markowitz method and risk analysis with ES, an application was made using the Matlab GUI. The data used in this study consisted of three JII stocks including CPIN, CTRA, and BSDE stocks. The results of the portfolio formation with the Markowitz method obtained an optimal portfolio, namely the combination of CPIN = 34.7% and BSDE = 65.3% stocks. At the 95% confidence level, the ES value of 0.206727 is greater than the VaR value (0.15512).

PENDEKATAN METODE MARKOWITZ UNTUK OPTIMALISASI PORTOFOLIO DENGAN RISIKO EXPECTED SHORTFALL (ES) PADA SAHAM SYARIAH DILENGKAPI GUI MATLAB

A portfolio is a combination of two or more securities as investment targets for a certain period of time with certain conditions. The Markowitz method is a method that emphasizes efforts to maximize return expectations and can minimize stock risk. One method that can be used to measure risk is Expected Shortfall (ES). ES is an expected measure of risk whose value is above Value-at-Risk (VaR). To make it easier to calculate optimal portfolios with the Markowitz method and risk analysis with ES, an application was made using the Matlab GUI. The data used in this study consisted of three JII stocks including CPIN, CTRA, and BSDE stocks. The results of the portfolio formation with the Markowitz method obtained an optimal portfolio, namely the combination of CPIN = 34.7% and BSDE = 65.3% stocks. At the 95% confidence level, the ES value of 0.206727 is greater than the VaR value (0.15512).

Subjective Return Expectations, Perceptions, and Portfolio Choice

Exploiting a representative sample of the French population by age, wealth, and asset classes, we document novel facts about their expectations and perceptions of stock market returns. Both expectations and perceptions of returns are very dispersed, significantly lower than their data counterparts, and a substantial portion of the variation in the former is explained by dispersion in the latter. Consistent with portfolio choice models under incomplete information, a conditional risk-return trade-off explains the intensive margin, while at the extensive margin, only expected returns matter. Despite accounting for survey measurement error in subjective return expectations, ’muted sensitivities’ at both portfolio choice margins obtain, getting consistently (i) bigger when excluding informed non-participants, and (ii) smaller, for inertial and professionally delegated portfolios.

PENGARUH PERSEPSI RISIKO, EKSPEKTASI RETURN, BEHAVIORAL MOTIVATION DAN KEMAJUAN TEKNOLOGI TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI DI PEER TO PEER LENDING SYARIAH

&lt;p&gt;This study aims to determine the effect of perceived risk, xpected returns, behavioral motivation and technological progress on investment decisions in Islamic peer to peer lending. The research method used is quantitative research methods with primary data obtained from questionnaire data measured using a likert scale. Data processing in this study using multiple linear regression analysis through SPSS software. The results showed that the variables of risk perception and behavioral motivation had a significant effect on investment decisions in Islamic peer to peer lending, while the variables of return expectations and technological progress had no effect on investment decisions in Islamic peer to peer lending. This research is useful for financiers and Islamic peer to peer lending companies in particular to be able to improve the company's performance in order to achieve the company's goals.&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

Abstract We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&amp;P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of expected future returns across investors. Our analysis is facilitated by the prevalence of leveraged funds that track the same underlying asset: by choosing between higher and lower leverage, investors trade off higher return against less risk. Our estimates indicate that investor expectations are heterogeneous, extrapolative, and persistent. Following a downturn, investors become more pessimistic on average, but there is also an increase in disagreement among participating investors due to the presence of contrarian investors.

Asset pricing with return extrapolation

We present a new model of asset prices in which a representative agent has extrapolative beliefs about stock market returns and Epstein-Zin preferences. The model quantitatively explains facts about asset prices, return expectations, and cash-flow expectations. When the agent’s beliefs about stock market returns are calibrated to survey expectations of investors, the model generates excess volatility and predictability of stock market returns, a high equity premium, a low and stable risk-free rate, and a low correlation between stock market returns and consumption growth. Moreover, the model has implications for expectations about future cash flows that are consistent with empirical findings.

The Return Expectations of Public Pension Funds

Abstract The return expectations of public pension funds are positively related to cross-sectional differences in past performance. This positive relation operates through the expected risk premium, rather than the expected risk-free rate or inflation rate. Pension funds act on their beliefs and adjust their portfolio composition accordingly. Persistent investment skills, risk taking, efforts to reduce costly rebalancing, and fiscal incentives from unfunded liabilities cannot fully explain the reliance of expectations on past performance. The results are consistent with extrapolative expectations, since the dependence on past returns is greater when executives have personally experienced longer performance histories with the fund. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the Pandemic

This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which KU events are associated with directionally similar expectations of future returns. Narrative analytics of daily news reports allow for the assessment of bullish versus bearish views in the stock market. Increases in expectations concordance across all KU events results in reinforcing effects and an increase in stock market volatility. Lower expectations concordance produces a stabilizing effect wherein the offsetting views reduce market volatility. The empirical findings hold for ex post and ex ante measures of volatility and for OLS and GARCH estimates.

Subjective Bond Returns and Belief Aggregation

AbstractThis paper proposes an aggregation scheme of subjective bond return expectations based on the historical accuracy of professional interest rate forecasters. We use disaggregated survey data on bond returns and document large disagreement in the cross-sectional distribution and persistence in forecast accuracy. Our aggregate subjective belief proxy outperforms equal weighting schemes, and its dynamics are significantly different from statistical forecasting models. With this measure in hand, we study the relationship between quantities of risk and subjective expectations of excess returns and demonstrate a strong link between the two, even if such a relationship is difficult to detect using realized returns.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.