Retrospective Trend Analysis Research Articles

Declining Trends in Septic Revision Following Total Knee Arthroplasty From 2010 to 2019: A National Cohort Analysis

Periprosthetic joint infections (PJI) following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are associated with high patient morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Methods to reduce the burden of PJI have been shown to be efficacious on a small scale. On a national scale, it is unknown whether these methods have reduced PJI rates. A retrospective trend analysis was conducted using a national database. The incidence of 2-year septic revision was observed for the entire cohort and patients who had high-risk co-morbidities from 2010 to 2019. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to compare the odds ratios of 2-year septic revision rates from 2011 to 2019 to the reference year of 2010. Linear regression was used to compare the change throughout this period in the overall and high-risk sub-analysis groups. Among the 860,185 patients, 5,589 underwent septic revision within 2 years. The 2-year septic revision rate decreased from 0.75% in 2010 to 0.69% in 2019 (compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] = -0.94%, P = 0.049). Multivariable logistic regressions demonstrated that the odds of septic revision in 2019 were significantly lower than those in 2010 (OR [odds ratio]: 0.83, 95% CI [confidence interval]: [0.70 to 0.96], P = 0.017). In high-risk patients, the septic revision rate decreased from 1.04 to 0.80% (CAGR = -2.80%, P = 0.004), specifically in those who had a history of psychoses, Medicaid insurance, anemia, heart failure, obesity, liver disease, tobacco use, and drug abuse (P < 0.05 for all). This study demonstrates a national reduction in the 2-year septic revision rate in all TKA patients, including patients considered at high risk for PJI. This suggests current preventative methods may be efficacious on a national scale in TKA. Further research is needed to identify more modalities to reduce the national incidence of this morbid and costly complication.

Trends in Vitamin B12 Level Testing in Patients on Metformin From 2000 to 2020.

Metformin is one of the primary pharmacologic agents for managing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it has been associated with interference in vitamin B12 absorption and deficiency. Vitamin B12 deficiency and T2DM can present diagnostic challenges for polyneuropathy. Diagnosis is essential for guiding treatment, yet the use of vitamin B12 level testing in this population may have dwindled over time amid changing practice guidelines. This study examines trends over time in the use of vitamin B12 level testing among patients on metformin. This retrospective trend analysis used data from TriNetX, a real-world, longitudinal clinical database. Patients treated with metformin from 2000 to 2020 were identified using Rx Concept Unique Identifier codes. The number of patients who underwent vitamin B12 level testing at any time after 1 month from metformin initiation was tabulated. Patients were grouped by the year of B12 level testing. Trends in B12 level testing were assessed using the Jonckheere-Terpstra statistical test (P<.05). Out of 4,203,020 patients prescribed metformin, 1,055,995 (25.1%) underwent B12 level testing. The highest proportion of patients tested was in 2000 to 2002 (39.6%), while the lowest proportion was in 2018 to 2020 (20.1%). B12 testing utilization declined significantly by 19.5% from 2000-2002 to 2018-2020 (P=.001). In this study, we found that the use of vitamin B12 level testing in patients on metformin has significantly declined over the years, potentially impacting early detection of B12 deficiency. Future studies with more granular data from real-life practice are recommended to understand the precise reasons and impact of this trend.

Noncommunicable disease risk behaviors and protective factors among children in Samoa: Retrospective trend analysis of global school-based health surveys in 2011 and 2017.

Pacific Island countries experience a high prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which may be prevented by reducing risk behaviors and strengthening protective factors in childhood and adolescence. To better inform preventative interventions, our objective was to use publicly available data from the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS), to provide cross-sectional and trend estimates for the prevalence of NCD risk and protective factors among school-aged children in 2011 and 2017 in Samoa. Two waves of cross-sectional data included 4,373 children (51.98% female), with a median age of 15 years, who were mainly in school years 9-10 in Samoa. Retrospective analyses were adjusted for the GSHS multistage stratified cluster sample design. Weighted prevalences of overweight/obesity, dietary behaviors, physical activity, and sedentary behavior, oral and hand hygiene, emotional and mental health, and community protective factors were reported by study year. Logistic regressions were fitted to assess differences in the prevalence of risk and protective factors, adjusted for age group, sex, and school year. In 2011 and 2017, the prevalence of overweight/obesity remained consistently high in females (59.12% and 64.29%, p = 0.428) and increased from 44.21% to 53.65% in males (p = 0.039). Time spent sitting for long periods, smoking cigarettes, using other tobacco products, and drinking alcohol were lower in 2017 compared to 2011 (all p<0.05). Many children reported experiencing bullying (33.27% for females and 59.30% for males in 2017), while physical fighting was common among males (73.72% in 2011 and 57.28% in 2017). The high prevalence of obesity and related NCD risk factors require urgent public health action in Samoa. Alongside the continued reduction of tobacco and alcohol use, emotional and mental wellness should be prioritized in interventions and programs to promote healthy behaviors and lifestyle changes starting in childhood.

Trends in the Annual Incidence Rates of Child Sexual Abuse and Child Maltreatment over the Past 25 Years in the United States

AbstractExperiencing child sexual abuse is associated with increased risk for a range of short‐ and long‐term negative effects. This short report defines and explores the annual incidence rates of child sexual abuse in the United States over 25 years between 1996 and 2021 (the most recent data released) and, comparatively, annual incidence rates of child maltreatment, more generally. A retrospective trend analysis of Child Maltreatment Reports, produced by the Department of Health and Human Services with data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System, was conducted to compile and analyse rates of child sexual abuse and child maltreatment over time. In general, the rates of reported child maltreatment and child sexual abuse have declined, on average, since the 1990s. We, then, discuss these trends in connection with research documenting societal and family factors that may have contributed to these declines.

Higher-Than-Expected Burden of Alcohol-Related Liver Diseases During COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA, with a Tapering Trend.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an increase in alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the magnitude of ALD hospitalization surge during the pandemic in the USA. A retrospective trend analysis of adult hospitalizations for ALD at acute care hospitals across the USA in 2016-2020 was conducted. Hospitalizations were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 10 codes for ALD and non-alcoholic-related liver disease. Outcomes measured included the predicted monthly volume of hospitalizations for ALD and inpatient mortality rates. During the 2020 pandemic, monthly ALD hospitalizations reached 10,247 representing a 20.7% increase compared to pre-pandemic monthly average of 8490. Additional 4163 ALD hospitalizations occurred during the pandemic, in addition to a pre-pandemic uptrend. The peak of excess ALD hospitalizations was from May to October (monthly excess of 1138) decreasing to monthly excess of 280 in November and December. The excess increase in ALD hospitalizations was primarily observed in young adults, totaling 5256 cases affecting both male (2101 excess cases) and females (2041 excess cases). The age-standardized monthly mortality rate during the pandemic was notably higher than expected at 0.9% (95% CI 0.4 to 1.4%). The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant increase in ALD hospitalizations, above and beyond the pre-existing upward trend, which tapered towards the end of 2020, suggesting a possible decline in the pandemic's impact. The excess increase in ALD hospitalizations was observed primarily in young adults and affected both males and females. These findings highlight the need for further attention to the long-term consequences of the pandemic.

Assessment of the Regulatory Approval Process of Medical Devices in Ethiopia: A Mixed Sequential Explanatory Study.

Cognizant of indispensable role as important health intervention tools, the global medical devices industry continues to bring new medical devices with varying degrees of technologies and complexities. Ensuring the safety, good performance and timely access of them have become challenging for regulatory authorities, particularly for developing countries including Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, the role of the regulatory authority is complicated further because of the lack of specific policies. Medical devices regulation is still being dealt under drug policy. This study was aimed to assess the regulatory approval processes of medical devices in Ethiopia. A mixed sequential explanatory study design was employed. Quantitative data were collected using a structured self-administered questionnaire and standard checklist; qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews using a semi-structured guide. Retrospective trend analysis (2015 to 2018) indicated that 3,804 medical devices were registered in Ethiopia. Findings from the quantitative study indicated that 73.3% of regulatory experts had commendable knowledge on the medical devices regulatory system. However, gaps were identified in inspection and auditing (63.8%), practically understanding the system and procedures (24.3%), and having competencies in executing the critical core functions (6.9%). The top five challenges reported include (i) lack of capacity to assess dossiers (80.8%); (ii) lack of effective legislation (64.1%); (iii) provision of ambiguous feedback on deficiencies after dossier evaluations and delay in their communication (63.9%); (iv) long waiting time for approval (61.1%); and (v) lack of experienced and qualified staff (55.7%). In addition, the absence of a specific policy for medical device regulation presents a great hurdle. Basic functional systems and procedures for the regulation of medical devices in Ethiopia are present. However, there are still gaps that are impeding effective regulation of medical devices especially for those with advanced features and complex-monitoring modalities.

Malaria Threatens to Bounce Back in Abergele District, Northeast Ethiopia: Five-Year Retrospective Trend Analysis from 2016-2020 in Nirak Health Center.

Background In Sub-Saharan African countries, malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia, malaria is found in three-fourths of its land mass with more than 63 million people living in malaria endemic areas. Nowadays, Ethiopia is implementing a malaria elimination program with the goal of eliminating the disease by 2030. To assist this goal, the trends of malaria cases should be evaluated with a function of time in different areas of the country to develop area-specific evidence-based interventions. Therefore, this study was aimed at analysing a five year trend of malaria in Nirak Health Center, Abergele District, Northeast Ethiopia, from 2016 to 2020. Methods A retrospective study was conducted at Nirak Health Center, Abergele District, Northeast Ethiopia from February to April 2021. Five-year (2016 to 2020) retrospective data were reviewed from the malaria registration laboratory logbook. The sociodemographic and malaria data were collected using a predesigned data collection sheet. Data were entered, cleaned, and analysed using SPSS version 26. Results In the five-year period, a total of 19,433 malaria suspected patients were diagnosed by microscopic examination. Of these, 6,473 (33.3%) were positive for malaria parasites. Of the total confirmed cases, 5,900 (91.2%) were P. falciparum and 474 (7.2%) were P. vivax. Majority of the cases were males (62.2%) and in the age group of 15-45 years old (52.8%). The findings of this study showed an increasing trend in malaria cases in the past five years (2016-2020). The maximum number of confirmed malaria cases reported was in the year 2020, while the minimum number of confirmed malaria cases registered was in 2016. Regarding the seasonal distribution of malaria, the highest number of malaria cases (55.2%) was observed in Dry season (September to January) and also the least (15.9%) was observed in Autumn (March to May) replaced by the least (21.6%) was observed in Rainy season (June to August), that is, the major malaria transmission season in Ethiopia and the least (15.9%) was observed in autumn (March to May). Conclusion The trends of malaria in Nirak Health Center showed steadily increasing from the year 2016–2020, and the predominant species isolated was P. falciparum. This showed that the malaria control and elimination strategy in the area were not properly implemented or failed to achieve its designed goal. Therefore, this finding alarms the local governments and other stack holders urgently to revise their intervention strategies and take action in the locality.

Trends in quality of primary care in the United States, 2007\u20132016

During the past decade, many reforms were proposed and implemented for improving primary care in the US. This study assessed improvements in quality of primary care, using a nationally representative database. We conducted a retrospective trend analysis of National Inpatient Sample data (2007–2016). The quality of primary care was assessed using Prevention Quality Indicators (PQIs), which consist of 13 sets of preventable hospitalization conditions. PQI hospitalization decreased from 154,565 to 151,168 per million hospitalizations during the study period (relative decrease, 2.2%; P = 0.041). Age-adjusted hospitalization rate increased for diabetes short-term complications (relative increase, 46.9%; P < 0.001) and lower-extremity amputations (relative increase, 15.1%; P = 0.035). Age stratified trends showed that hospitalization rates decreased significantly in all age-groups for diabetes short-term complications. For lower-extremity amputations, hospitalization rates increased significantly in younger age groups and decreased significantly in the older age groups. All other PQIs showed either decreasing or no change in trends. Adults aged 18–64 years should be the focus for future prevention attempts for diabetes complications. Identifying and acting on the factors responsible for these changes could help in reversing the concerning trends observed in this study. Existing strategies should focus on improving access to diabetes care and self-management.

Trends in Antiretroviral Regimen Complexity Among Medicare Beneficiaries With HIV, 2014-2018

Little is known about antiretroviral therapy (ART) patterns among Medicare beneficiaries with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). ART has significant implications for spending in Medicare Part D as use of single-tablet regimens (STR) grows, generic availability remains low, and price increases for branded therapies consistently exceed inflation. The objective of this study is to detail patterns of STR utilization among Medicare beneficiaries with HIV. We conducted a retrospective trend analysis using a 5% sample of Medicare Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse, 2014-2018. We included each person-month that fee-for-service beneficiaries with HIV had Parts A, B, and D coverage. Trends in annual prevalence of STR overall, by ART class, and by age, sex, and race subgroups were estimated. The study included 9,509 beneficiaries who contributed 345,708 person-months to the analysis. The prevalence of STR increased from 21.8% (95%CI, 21.5-22.1) in 2014 to 44.6% (95%CI, 44.3-45.0) in 2018 (p <0.0001), an increase of 104.6%. Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) saw the largest increase in utilization between 2014 (4.4% [95%CI 4.2-4.5]) and 2018 (35.1% [95%CI 34.8-35.4]) (p<0.0001), a 701.8% increase. All sociodemographic subgroups experienced similar growth in STR use between 2014 and 2018. STR and INSTI utilization increased significantly over the study period, suggesting increased ART spending under Part D. Although increasing availability of generic multi-tablet ART regimens (MTR) may offer cost-savings, further research is needed comparing generic MTR to branded STR with regards to patient preferences, adherence, healthcare resource utilization, and total costs in the growing population of Medicare beneficiaries with HIV.

Review of culprit drugs associated with patients admitted to the burn unit with the diagnosis of Stevens-Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis Syndrome

PurposeStevens-Johnson Syndrome (SJS) and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis Syndrome (TENS) are severe and potentially lethal adverse drug reactions characterized by acute inflammation of the skin, mucous membranes, and ocular surface that typically occurs within weeks of a culprit drug ingestion.The purpose of this study is to report a retrospective trend analysis of SJS spectrum diagnoses and associated culprit drugs in patients admitted to the Loyola University Medical Center (LUMC) Burn Unit, the major referral center in the Chicagoland region for patients with SJS disease spectrum. MethodsThe electronic medical records (EMR) of 163 patients with a diagnosis of SJS/TENS admitted to the LUMC Burn Unit from 2000 to 2019 were reviewed. Clinical data in addition to the well-established algorithm of drug causality for epidermal necrolysis (ALDEN) allowed us to identify the single most probable culprit drug in 131 cases. ResultsFrom 2000 to 2019, the most common spectrum classification was TENS (48.1%), followed by SJS (33.6%) and SJS-TEN Overlap Syndrome (18.3%). Anticonvulsants were found to be the most probable culprit class in 30% of cases followed by Trimethoprim-Sulfamethoxazole in 19% of cases. Beta-lactams were the most probable culprit class in 11% of cases while NSAIDs and allopurinol were each the most probable culprit class/drug in 8.4% of cases. ConclusionsThis is one of the largest single center series of SJS/TENS cases in the United States. Further study into culprit drug distribution by region as well as continuous monitoring of trends is crucial in order to advise prescribing practices.

Tuberculosis and associated risk factors among children and adolescent population in Serbia: 12 year's retrospective study.

Recognition and epidemiological control of childhood and adolescent tuberculosis (TB) is essential to achieve effective control of TB in general as it presents high risk for transmission in the community. The aim of the study is to provide a descriptive and analytic overview of the trends in childhood and adolescent TB notifications and treatment outcomes and to identify factors associated with treatment success in a twelve-year period in Serbia. We performed a retrospective trend analysis and analysis of treatment outcomes of 596 child and adolescent TB cases notified in Serbia in the period 2005-2016 from all health facilities, as well as logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of treatment success. Factors independently associated with treatment success were: new TB (OR=2.60; 95% CI: 1.45-3.74), male sex (OR=2.55; 95% CI: 2.09-3.00), pulmonary TB (OR=3.34; 95% CI: 2.34-4.34), comorbidities (OR=2.58; 95% CI: 2.24-2.91), age below 5 years (OR=0.37; 95% CI: 0.32-0.43), and social vulnerability (OR=0.40; 95% CI: 0.34-0.46). In order to improve TB treatment outcomes among children and adolescent population in Serbia, it is important to focus on female, age group 5-18, EPTB, retreatment cases and socially vulnerable groups.

Retrospective trend analysis of HIV viral load suppression among antiretroviral therapy clients in Bauchi State, Nigeria

The negative effects of HIV have affected all spheres of public lives such as individual health, economy and the employment opportunity globally. The most common way to tackle the disease is the use of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART), this has proved to be an effective way to manage HIV worldwide. The use of ART has substantially suppressed the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viral Load (VL) and reduced the risk of HIV infection. This study evaluates the trends analysis of HIV Viral load suppression among ART Clients in Bauchi State Nigeria for the year 2017. The study used 18 healthcare facilities providing Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in Bauchi State. The population comprises all people living with HIV/AIDS who are residents in the study area of the 18 healthcare facilities and a convenient sampling method were used. The study found that highest number of viral load suppression existed in Toro General Hospital, even though all the sample health facilities considered in the study recorded viral load suppression. The study also tested for percentage proportion of TB/HIV coinfection among people on ART with suppressed viral loads (1000c/mL) and found that in all the 18 healthcare facilities except Jama’are General Hospital, presumptive TB/HIV co-infection recorded higher proportion compare to active TB/HIV co-infection among people on ART with suppressed viral loads (1000c/mL). The study recommends that for UNAIDS target of 90-90-90 to be achieved to help end the HIV epidemics, aggressive strategies should be put in place to improve adherence to ART by patients and access to viral load monitoring should also be improved in order to detect the patients with risk of HIV.

COMPARISON between COVID-19 and MERS demographic data in Saudi Arabia: a retrospective study

ABSTRACT The outbreak of corona virus disease (COVID-19) caused by the new severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 began in Wuhan, China, resulting in respiratory disorders. In January of 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic owing to its global spread. Because no studies have investigated COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, this study investigated similarities and differences between demographic data during the COVID-19 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. A retrospective trend analysis was performed to assess demographic data of all laboratory-confirmed MERS and COVID-19 cases. Patients’ charts were reviewed for data on demographics, mortality, citizenship, sex ratio, and age groups with descriptive and comparative statistics; the data were analyzed using a non-parametric binomial test and chi-square test. Of all COVID-19 patients in Saudi Arabia,78%were male patients and 22% were female patients. This proportion of male COVID-19 patients was similar to that of male MERS patients, which also affected male patients more frequently than female patients. The number of COVID-19-positive Saudi cases was lower than that of non-Saudi cases, which were in contrast to that of MERS; COVID-19 appeared to be remarkably similar to MERS with respect to recovered cases. However, the numbers of critical and dead COVID-19 patients have been much lower than those of MERS patients. The largest proportion of COVID-19 and MERS cases (44.05% and 40.8%, respectively) were recorded in the Western region. MERS and COVID-19 exhibited similar threats to the lives of adults and the elderly, despite lower mortality rates during the COVID-19 epidemic. Targeted prevention of and interventions against MERS should be allocated populations according to the areas where they inhabit. However, much more information regarding the dynamics and epidemiology of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia is needed. Abbrevation : MERS: Middle East Respiratory syndrome; COVID-19: Corona Virus Disease 2019.

Prevalence of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in the Hohoe Municipality of the Volta Region, Ghana: A Five-Year Retrospective Trend Analysis.

Background:Typhoid and paratyphoid fever remain a global public health burden, yet annual estimates of prevalence vary. Estimates have ranged between 9.9 and 24.2 million cases annually. Similar differences in estimates are seen within countries but point to a serious health challenge. In Ghana, for instance, typhoid fever has been ranked among the top twenty causes of outpatient morbidity and constituted 1.2%, 1.7% and 1.3% of hospital admissions in 2017, 2016 and 2015 respectively.Objective:The objective of the study was to determine the prevalence of Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi in the Hohoe Municipality.Methods:Data on all reported cases of typhoid fever in the Hohoe municipality as entered into the District Health Information Management System 2 (DHIMS 2) database between January 2012 and December 2016 were extracted. A time-trend analysis was conducted to establish the relationship between typhoid fever prevalence and factors such as age, gender, and season. Stata was used to analyse data and to measure rates, associations, and their significance.Findings:The results showed that a total of 6282 individuals suffered from typhoid fever during the five-year period. Of these numbers, 2080 (33.1%) were males, and 4202 (66.9%) were females, representing a P-value 0.0222, and 95% CI. The 25–29 age group were the most affected. High prevalence was observed during the wet months, although cases occurred throughout the year. Trend analysis showed growing cases of typhoid over the period. Prevalence for the various years were found as follows: 2012 – 148 per 100,000, 2013 – 135 per 100,000, 2014 – 396 per 100,000 and in 2015 – 943 per 100,000.Conclusions:Typhoid fever remains and continues to be a major public health challenge in the municipality. This calls for health authorities and service providers to educate the public about the disease if the challenge is to be addressed.

A twenty-eight-year laboratory-based retrospective trend analysis of malaria in Dakar, Senegal.

IntroductionHealth facility-based records offer a rich source of information to understand trends and changes in malaria cases over time. This study is aimed at determining the changes in malaria occurrence over the last 28 years, from 1989 to 2016 in Dakar, Senegal.MethodsLaboratory suspected and confirmed malaria records from 1989 to 2016 were reviewed from the laboratory registers of the Laboratory of Parasitology and Mycology of Aristide Le Dantec Hospital. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to estimate the changes by comparing malaria cases post-intervention (2006–2016) with that of the pre-intervention (1989–2005) period.ResultsA total of 5,876 laboratory confirmed malaria cases were reported out of 29,852 tested cases, with total slide positivity rate (SPR) of 19.7%. Malaria case counts exhibited a fluctuating trend with major peaks occurring in the years 1995 and 2003 with SPR of 42.3% and 42.5%, respectively. Overall, a remarkable decline in the total number of laboratory confirmed malaria cases was observed over the last 28 years. P. falciparum was almost the only reported species, accounting for 99.98% of cases. The highest SPR was observed in the age group of under five years during the pre-intervention period while this shifted to the age group of 6–15 years old for the subsequent years. Two major malaria peak seasons were observed: one in September during the pre-intervention period and the other in November for the post-intervention period. The ITS analysis showed a dramatic decline of 83.6% in SPR following the scale-up of interventions in 2006.ConclusionA remarkable decline in laboratory confirmed malaria cases in Dakar over 28 years was observed. The period of rapid decline in malaria SPR coincided with the scale-up in interventions beginning in 2006 with the introduction of ACTs, followed by the widespread introduction in 2008 of bed nets treated with insecticides. Robust surveillance data should be maintained in the context of malaria elimination efforts.

Factors Related to Medication Administration Incidents in England and Wales Between 2007 and 2016: A Retrospective Trend Analysis.

The aims of the study were to describe medication administration incidents reported in England and Wales between 2007 and 2016, to identify which factors (reporting year, type of incident, patients' age) are most strongly related to reported severity of medication administration incidents, and to assess the extent to which relevant information was underreported or indeterminate. Medication administration incidents reported to the National Reporting & Learning System between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2016 were obtained. Characteristics of the data were described using frequencies, and relationships between variables were explored using cross-tabulation. A total of 517,384 incident reports were analyzed. Of these, 97.1% (n = 502,379) occurred in acute/general hospitals, mostly on wards (69.1%, n = 357,463), with medicine the most common specialty area (44.5%, n = 230,205). Medication errors were most commonly omitted doses (25.8%, n = 133,397). The majority did not cause patient harm (83.5%, n = 432,097). When only incidents causing severe harm or death (n = 1,116) were analyzed, the most common type of error was omitted doses (24.1%). Most incidents causing severe harm or death occurred in patients aged 56 years or older. For the 10-year period, the percentage of incidents with "no harm" increased (74.1% in 2007 to 86.3% in 2016). For some variables, data were often missing or indeterminate, which has implications for data analysis. Medication administration incidents that do not cause harm are increasingly reported, whereas incidents reported as severe harm and death have declined. Data quality needs to be improved. Underreporting and indeterminate data, inaccuracies in reporting, and coding jeopardize the overall usefulness of these data.

517 ALDEN Based Determination of Culprit Drugs in Stevens-Johnson Syndrome: A 15-year Single Center Review

Abstract Introduction Stevens-Johnson Syndrome (SJS) and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis Syndrome (TENS) are severe and potentially lethal adverse drug reactions characterized by acute inflammation and subsequent necrosis of the skin, mucous membranes, and ocular surface. SJS/TENS is defined on a spectrum based on the percent of total body surface area (%TBSA) with epidermal detachment: SJS (&amp;lt; 10% TBSA), Overlap Syndrome (10–30%), and TENS (&amp;gt;30%). The purpose of our study was to perform a systemic retrospective trend analysis of SJS spectrum diagnoses and culprit drugs in 147 patients admitted to the burn center over the past 15 years with the final diagnosis of SJS/TENS. The burn center serves as a regional referral center for patients with suspected or confirmed SJS/TENS. These referrals came from the five other academic medical centers as well as private hospitals in the area. Methods The electronic medical records of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of SJS/TENS admitted to the burn center from 2002 to 2017 were reviewed. Clinical data and the algorithm of drug causality for epidermal necrolysis (ALDEN) were used to identify the single most probable culprit drug. The following data were reviewed: date of admission, %TBSA with detachment, biopsy confirmation, and possible inciting agents. Chi-square tests were used to assess statistical significance for group comparisons. Results Over 15 years, 147 patients had a biopsy-confirmed diagnosis of SJS/TENS, of which 67% (n =98) had a culprit drug identified. The most common spectrum classification was TENS (n=73), followed by SJS (n=46) and Overlap Syndrome (n=27). Anticonvulsants (n=24), fluoroquinolones (n=14), allopurinol (n=11), sulfa drugs (n=9), and NSAIDs (n=9) were the most common inciting agents. Between 2006–2017, the proportion of patients presenting with SJS increased as compared to TENS and Overlap syndrome (10% in 2002–2009 vs. 42% in 2010–2017, p&amp;lt; 0.01). Sulfa drug reactions were more prevalent in recent years (0% in 2002–2009 vs. 18% in 2010–2017, p=0.065) and fluoroquinolone-induced reactions in earlier years (21% in 2002–2009 vs. 6% in 2010–2017, p=0.068). Conclusions This is one of the largest single center series of SJS/TENS/Overlap cases in the US. Our data supports trends presented in the EuroSCAR (1997–2001) and RegiSCAR (2003–2012) studies. Applicability of Research to Practice The ALDEN algorithm provides an important and validated method for determining the probable culprit drug in SJS/TENS spectrum reactions. Trends in culprit drugs can shift over time based on changes in prescribing practices. Therefore, these trends need to be monitored in order to advise providers on which agents present the greatest risk to patients.

Trends in Diagnostic Imaging Utilization among Medicare and Commercially Insured Adults from 2003 through 2016.

Background Trends in noninvasive diagnostic imaging (NDI) utilization rates have predominantly been reported in Medicare enrollees. To the authors' knowledge, there has been no prior direct comparison of utilization rates between Medicare and commercially insured patients. Purpose To analyze trends in NDI utilization rates by modality, comparing Medicare fee-for-service and commercially insured enrollees. Materials and Methods This study was a retrospective trend analysis of NDI performed between 2003 and 2016 as reported in claims databases for all adults enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare and for roughly 9 million commercially insured patients per year. The commercially insured patients were divided into two populations: those aged 18-44 years and those aged 45-64 years. The same procedure code definitions for NDI were applied to both Medicare and commercial claims, rates were calculated per 1000 enrollees, and trends were reported over time in aggregate followed by modality (CT, MRI, nuclear imaging, echocardiography, US, radiography). Join-point regression was used to model annual rates and to identify statistically significant (P < .05) changes in trends. Results In almost all instances, Medicare enrollees had the highest utilization rate for each modality, followed by commercially insured patients aged 45-64 years, then aged 18-44 years. All three populations showed utilization growth through the mid to late 2000s (images per 1000 enrollees per year for Medicare: 91 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 34, 148]; commercially insured patients aged 45-64 years: 158 [95% CI: 130, 186]; aged 18-44 years: 83 [95% CI: 69, 97]), followed by significant declining trends from the late 2000s through early 2010s (images per 1000 enrollees per year for Medicare: -301 [95% CI: -510, -92]; commercially insured patients aged 45-64 years: -54 [95% CI: -69, -39]; aged 18-44 years: -26 [95% CI: -31, -21]) coinciding with code-bundling events instituted by Medicare (CT, nuclear imaging, echocardiography). There were significant trend changes in modalities without code bundling (MRI, radiography, US), although flat trends mostly were exhibited. After the early 2010s, there were significant trend changes largely showing flat utilization growth. The notable exception was a significant trend change to renewed growth of CT imaging among commercially insured patients aged 45-64 years and Medicare enrollees after 2012, although at half the prior rate (images per 1000 enrollees per year for Medicare: 17 [95% CI: 6, 28]; commercially insured patients aged 45-64 years: 11 [95% CI: 2, 20]). Conclusion Noninvasive diagnostic imaging utilization trends among commercially insured individuals are similar to those in Medicare enrollees, although at lower rates. Earlier rapid growth has ceased and, except for CT, utilization has stabilized since the early 2010s. © RSNA, 2019 See also the editorial by Hentel and Wolk in this issue.

Trends in diarrhoeal disease hospitalisation in a paediatric short - stay ward at a tertiary-level hospital in Soweto: 2002-2016

Globally, a decline in diarrhoeal disease has been observed over the last two decades. This may be attributable to several interventions, including rotavirus vaccination since 2009 in South Africa. From January 2002 to December 2016, we conducted a retrospective trend analysis of diarrhoeal hospitalisations with mild or moderate dehydration to a short-stay ward (SSW) in children <14 years of age. We found that diarrhoeal hospitalisation to the SSW accounted for 29.3% of the 53 717 children who presented with diarrhoea to the emergency department. A significant decline in disease incidence was noted after 2009/2010, coinciding with rotavirus vaccine implementation into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation. The yearly incidence (per 100 000) declined from 307 (95% confidence interval (CI) 277 - 337) over the 2002/2008 period to 141 (95% CI 120 - 161) from 2011/2016; p <0.001. In conclusion, rotavirus vaccination was associated with a decline of diarrhoeal disease hospitalisations to the SSW at this hospital.

Trends in reported malaria cases and the effects of malaria control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BackgroundConsiderable upscaling of malaria control efforts have taken place over the last 15 years in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the country with the second highest malaria case load after Nigeria. Malaria control interventions have been strengthened in line with the Millenium Development Goals. We analysed the effects of these interventions on malaria cases at health facility level, using a retrospective trend analysis of malaria cases between 2005 and 2014. Data were collected from outpatient and laboratory registers based on a sample of 175 health facilities that represents all eco-epidemiological malaria settings across the country.MethodsWe applied a time series analysis to assess trends of suspected and confirmed malaria cases, by health province and for different age groups. A linear panel regression model controlled for non-malaria outpatient cases, rain fall, nightlight intensity, health province and time fixed effects, was used to examine the relationship between the interventions and malaria case occurrences, as well as test positivity rates.ResultsOverall, recorded suspected and confirmed malaria cases in the DRC have increased. The sharp increase in confirmed cases from 2010 coincides with the introduction of the new treatment policy and the resulting scale-up of diagnostic testing. Controlling for confounding factors, the introduction of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) was significantly associated with the number of tested and confirmed cases. The test positivity rate fluctuated around 40% without showing any trend.ConclusionThe sharp increase in confirmed malaria cases from 2010 is unlikely to be due to a resurgence of malaria, but is clearly associated with improved diagnostic availability, mainly the introduction of RDTs. Before that, a great part of malaria cases were treated based on clinical suspicion. This finding points to a better detection of cases that potentially contributed to improved case management. Furthermore, the expansion of diagnostic testing along with the increase in confirmed cases implies that before 2010, cases were underreported, and that the accuracy of routine data to describe malaria incidence has improved.