Volume Of Retail Trade Research Articles

Three-scenario forecast of retail e-commerce market volume changes in Kazakhstan until 2026

The new stage of global development is characterized by the movement of data across national borders, which is changing the nature and patterns of commerce. Despite the existence of e-commerce for many years, the current scale of these transactions is not commensurate with the previous ones. In addition, the emergence of marketplaces has fundamentally changed the rules of the game, causing a transformation of commerce processes. The purpose of the research is to compile a forecast model of changes in the volume of Kazakhstan's retail e-commerce market in the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. Forecast models were formed as a result of correlation and multiple regression analysis. Scenario forecasts were built taking into account changes in the volume of retail trade in the country based on current conditions of the economy functioning. The results of the study allowed to identify factors that positively and negatively affect the development of the retail e-commerce market in Kazakhstan. The first group includes the growth of the total volume of retail trade, the share of Internet users aged 16–74, the share of non-cash payments in the total structure of payments, and the second group includes the growth of cash payments. The scientific significance of the obtained results lies in the justification of the influence of a set of factors on the change in the volume of the retail e-commerce market. The obtained results can be used by authorized bodies to regulate the market under study by influencing individual factors of e-commerce development.

Prediction of customer demand for perishable products in retail inventory management, using the hybrid prophet-XGBoost model during the post-COVID-19 period

ABSTRACT Retail inventory management (IM) presents challenges in decision-making, especially in determining optimal inventory levels for future customer demand alignment. This study focuses on predicting dairy product demand by a significant European retail company using historical order data. As dairy products are perishable and constitute a relevant portion of retail trade volume, accurate IM is crucial to prevent wastage and meet customer needs. However, external factors like COVID-19 may impact demand volatility and seasonal patterns. Given the absence of scientific studies on predicting post-COVID-19 demand, our research aims to fill this gap by proposing alternatives, such as excluding the pandemic period and developing a historical imputation. The study employs two predictive models, Prophet and XGBoost, known for their superior performance in predicting demand. Moreover, a hybrid approach combining both models is proposed to enhance prediction accuracy by leveraging the capacity of the Prophet model to handle seasonal and holiday-period effects and XGBoost’s regularization to prevent overfitting. The results demonstrate the feasibility of historical imputation and the hybrid model approach, improving significantly individual model performance. The principal application of the study is to propose an approach to predict the shipment of other products in a post-COVID-19 context.

DYNAMICS OF KEY INDICATORS OF THE FMCG MARKET IN THE BELGOROD REGION

The purpose of the article is to assess the dynamics of key indicators of the FMCG goods market in the Belgorod region. The article presents the main trends in the development of the FMCG market in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Among them is the growth of the regional market of consumer goods, as well as a significant increase in the share of online sales in the total volume of retail trade. Analysis methods were used: SWOT analysis, dynamic series method, comparison method. The statistical analysis of the indicators of the regional consumer goods market revealed the growth factors and limitations of the FMCG market development, as well as the peculiarities of consumer behavior in the changed socio-economic conditions. The results of the research conducted in the article allowed us to identify promising areas of the regional FMCG market: the digital transformation of the consumer goods market; the growth of local players in the FMCG food segment of the region.

Product range management of online stores in the conditions of COVID-19

The article considers the current problem of improving the product range of online store in COVID-19 conditions. There is a steady tendency to increase the share of e-commerce in the global volume of retail trade, the level of visits to online stores. It was found that the system of product range management includes such organizational activities as planning (market analysis, range formation, planning of sales and logistics); organization (organization of order processing, analysis of the effectiveness of Internet commerce); control (monitoring the implementation of key performance indicators (KPI), assessment of the impact of product structure to achieve KPI, adjusting the assortment). In the near future, assortment management in online stores will be affected by such factors as increased demand, the uncertainty of the business environment, increased requirements for the quality of goods and their delivery, the complexity of delivery of goods, especially export goods. To adapt to external conditions, to ensure competitiveness in the long term, it is important to apply strategic and operational management tools. Strategic tools provide for long-term planning based on actual statistical and analytical data of activities and market development. Such tools should be the following: developing a strategy for adapting the nomenclature according to the dynamics of the market, justification of procedures for bringing the interface of the online store, the introduction of a flexible management strategy in terms of structural changes in the product range. In modern conditions the tools of operational management of the online store should be aimed at operational improvement of the range: to reject and/or replace products with low demand, improve customer perception of the goods offered by classifying them, the justification of the system of related services, taking into account economic efficiency.

ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННАЯ ДИФФЕРЕНЦИАЦИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ КАЗАХСТАНА ПО ОСИ «ЦЕНТР-ПЕРИФЕРИЯ»

In the context of the reorientation of regional policy in Kazakhstan toward the formation of managed urbanization, it becomes relevant to study asymmetry within the regional space in terms of the interaction of regional centers with their surroundings. The article analyzes the spatial differentiation of the regional socio-economic development of Kazakhstan along the ‘center-periphery’ axis, formed on the basis of the degree of proximity to the regional center of neighborhood zones of different orders. The analysis showed that urbanization and concentration of the population in agglomerations and regional centers manifested themselves in the strengthening of the center-periphery spatial differentiation of socio-demographic indicators. The center-periphery relations are most clearly manifested in the dynamics of the population settlement: decline in population increases with distance from regional centers. To quantify the center-periphery spatial differentiation, median values of indicators and coefficients of variation for per capita values of the main socio-economic indicators by neighborhood zones were used. Among the main economic indicators, there can be observed an increasing contrast in spatial differentiation in per capita values of industrial output. Higher values of the coefficient of variation for this indicator show a trend toward the concentration of industrial production. At the same time, a decrease in the value of the coefficients of variation for the volume of retail trade and commissioning of the total area of residential buildings per capita indicates a tendency to spatial smoothing in the distribution of income

Особенности государственной поддержки развития сельского хозяйства в Московской области

The Moscow region is one of the most economically developed regions of Russia. Today, the Moscow Region is the first region in terms of the number of cities, the second region in terms of the population of the Russian Federation and the volume of retail trade, the third – in terms of the scale of the economy, the fourth – in terms of population density. The Moscow region is among the leading regions in terms of the level of education of the population. In the structure of the gross regional product of the Moscow region, a key role is played by: wholesale and retail trade; manufacturing industries; real estate transactions. The main centers of attraction for investments, including foreign ones, are enterprises of the manufacturing sector of the economy. 102 objects have been created on the territory of the Moscow Region to attract investment, of which 3 are special economic zones, 80 industrial parks, 14 technological parks, 6 industrial sites. One of the fastest growing sectors of the region’s economy is agriculture. According to preliminary estimates, by the end of the year, the Moscow region will take the first place in the production of table beets, cabbage and carrots, and the second place in berries and greenhouse cucumbers. In this regard, consideration of the economic aspects of state support for the agricultural sector of the economy on the basis of the current system of regulatory and administrative and economic measures is becoming most relevant. The article gives a brief description of the economy of the Moscow region, provides a list of regulatory documents, as well as a list of administrative and economic measures to support the agricultural sector of the region.

Об использовании показателей розничной торговли товарами любительского рыболовства для оценки его развития (на примере Центрального федерального округа)

Based on the data of Internet statistics, was made a preliminary estimate of the number of stores and the volume of retail trade in unorganized recreational fishing products in the Central Federal District. The dynamics of the number of stores in this segment in 2013-2019 showed a heterogeneous trend in cities with different populations, which probably reflects the different economic landscape for the development of this fishing in the subjects of the Central Federal District. The correlation of the dynamics of the number of fishing goods stores with demographic indicators, indicators of the capacity of the natural environment is revealed. The gross revenue of the sector of trade in fishing goods in the Central Federal District by 2019, obtained on the basis of traffic measurement and surveys, probably reached 5.0 billion rubles, characterizing the significant expenditures of the population on this type of leisure. It is proposed to take into account the indicators of trade in goods as an analytical tool for the state of unorganized fishing, and the gross revenue less prof-it-as a component of “costs” for the economic assessment of aquatic biological resources (ABR) of inland reservoirs. The possible place and role of economic data in the management system of unorganized recreational fishing is considered.

Анализ и прогнозирование финансовых рисков розничных торговых сетей

The relevance of the problem under study is due to the fact that, despite the many works devoted to the theoretical and applied aspects of risk research, the specifics of the formation of financial risks in the activities of retail trade networks have not been sufficiently studied. In particular, there is no methodology and practical recommendations for quantitative risk assessment using statistical methods that allow to identify trends and patterns in the dynamics of risk indicators, to consider external and internal risk factors, the results of which should be used as a basis for developing measures to reduce the risk of retail trade. networks. The aim of the work is to improve the methodology for assessing financial risks based on methods of statistical, economic and financial analysis. The article presents the results of a quantitative assessment of financial risks according to the approach developed and tested on the data of the retail trade network “Magnit”. For a quantitative assessment of the financial risks of a retail trade network, the authors proposed a system of five profitability indicators. The analysis of trends and patterns in the dynamics of profitability indicators, as well as factors influencing them, was carried out using one-dimensional and multidimensional data sets. Forecasts of profitability indicators are not contradictory and indicate the presence of a risk of losses, therefore, a detailed assessment of financial risks was carried out. It was revealed that the indicators of profitability of the retail trade network “Magnit” in the analyzed period had a statistically significant relationship with the indices of the physical volume of retail trade and consumer prices, as well as the number of economic entities in retail trade. The assessment of the financial condition of the organization by indicators of financial stability and a comprehensive assessment by the five-factor model of E. Altman are given. The scientific novelty of the work consists in improving the methodology for assessing financial risks based on statistical, economic and financial methods of analysis, as well as developing proposals for reducing financial risks for network trading organizations. The proposed methodology and research results are of interest to decision makers in network trade organizations, regulatory bodies at the regional and federal levels. Prospects for further research on the issues of assessing and predicting financial risks of retail chains consist in a more detailed study of external factors, in particular, legal restrictions, changes in the level and structure of consumer demand due to the pandemic that began in 2020.

Вплив пандемії COVID-19 на процес діджиталізації світової торгівлі

The article is devoted to the study of the trend of digitalization of world trade in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper presents the dynamics of global Internet trade and its share in total trade during the period 2015-2020. The following trends were identified: the annual growth rate of e-commerce for the period 2015-2019 was approximately 20%, and in 2020 due to the pandemic COVID-19 the volume of e-commerce increased by 27.6% while reducing the total volume of retail trade by 3 %. The paper analyzes the regional division of e-commerce as of 2020. The analysis revealed that the Asia-Pacific region became the world leader in terms of sales. Also, the article provides an analysis of the growth rate of e-commerce. Based on the analysis, it is hypothesized that the COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a new wave of growth in e-commerce in the "old regions" – North America and Western Europe. The study shows the top ten countries in terms of e-commerce sales in 2019 and 2020. One change in the composition was revealed - instead of Russia in 2020, Spain joined the composition. The paper analyzes the changes in the volume and structure of ecommerce in China, the United States, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece, Poland and Ukraine. As a result of the study, it can be argued that the COVID-19 pandemic can be considered a real catalyst for further digitalization of trade.

The Protection Of Consumer Rights In Retail Trade In Accordance With The Laws Of The Republic Of Uzbekistan

The needs of the population in consumer goods are met through retail activities. Individuals who buy goods at retail are consumers, and the protection of their status and rights in this legal relationship is constantly relevant. The increase in the volume of retail trade in recent years, as well as the fact that retail trade is carried out in conjunction with the types of trade services, also creates new challenges and risks to consumer rights. This highlights the need to introduce effective and comprehensive methods of consumer protection, to identify measures to prevent violations of consumer rights and to develop mechanisms for the restoration of violated rights, which are fast and easy to implement. Factors such as providing complete and reliable consumer information on retail trade, monitoring the quality and range of goods at the level of established requirements, enhancing the business reputation and goodwill of retail entities.

Маркетингова стратегія рослинництва декоративних культур в Україні на сучасному етапі

Goal. To determine the main components of the marketing strategy for the development of ornamental crops plant growing in Ukraine. Methods. Historical-scientific, problem-chronological, logical. Materials of statistical observations in Ukraine and the EU as well as price lists of ornamental plant producers were used and analyzed. Results. The analysis is made of the main components of the market of ornamental crops in Ukraine — production, assortment, pricing policy, sales channels, export and import of products, total capacity. It is established that the domestic market of ornamental plants has changed dramatically over the past 20 years and despite two economic crises continues to develop. That is confirmed by the increase over the last 4 years of its production by 14%, the volume of retail trade twice, the total market capacity by 51.4%, and the revival since 2016 of exports. Along with the positive changes, this segment of the agricultural complex has weaknesses — limited range, too long sales logistics, excessive concentration of production in the capital region, unreasonable increase in prices for some products, small volumes, and limited export geography. Based on the analysis, the main elements of the marketing strategy of ornamental crops at the present stage are proposed: expanding the range, optimizing sales channels, equalizing its volumes in the regions, regulating prices based on new products, increasing the share of domestic retail sales and increasing exports. Conclusions. The analysis of the main components of the market of ornamental plants in Ukraine is carried out, its positive and negative sides are established. Based on the analysis, a marketing model of the development strategy of this segment of agricultural production is proposed.

Assessment of the influence of the environmental factors on the formation and development of logistics systems pharmacy enterprises

The object of the research is the processes of formation of logistics systems of pharmacy chains. The important directions of their formation and development are the determination of the optimal size of the network (the number of retail outlets) and territorial distribution (location of pharmacies and pharmacy points). When solving these problems, it is necessary to take into account factors external to logistic systems: demographic, economic, social, and the like. It has been substantiated that the group of demographic factors can include the number and density of the population, the number of pensioners, the birth rate, etc. Economic factors are characterized by indicators of the level of income of the population, the volume of retail trade (including pharmacy) per capita, the intensity of competition, the development of transport infrastructure, etc. The main social factors influencing the formation and development of logistics systems of pharmacy chains are the standard of living of the population, employment of the able-bodied population, the number of medical and preventive institutions in the territory covered by the pharmacy network. Based on the results of the study of the influence of environmental factors on the formation and development of logistics systems of pharmacy chains, a methodology for assessing the spatial and quantitative parameters of logistics systems of pharmacy chains was developed, which provides for the sequential execution of operations at the national, regional and local levels and allows you to determine promising markets for the development of a pharmacy chain (spatial characteristics of logistics systems), choose the most appropriate option for the location of the pharmacy chain; to determine the optimal number of outlets in logistics systems in local and regional markets, taking into account the internal potential of the network, as well as the size of the pharmacy chain as a whole – at the national level (quantitative characteristics of the logistics systems of pharmacy chains).

Financial disbalances in the regional economy: analysis of causes and consequences

The article is devoted to the study of the analysis of the causes and consequences of financial imbalances in the economy of the regions. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the causes and consequences of financial imbalanced in the region's economy, to consider scenarios for the development of financial imbalanced, and to identify the main goals of the development of financial imbalanced and ways to achieve them. The object of the study is a certain system of indicators on the analysis of financial imbalances in the regions of Ukraine. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the diagnosis of indicators of financial imbalances in the economy of regions that characterize the economic development of the region's economy, namely: the number of economic entities, the volume of sales of goods (goods, services) of economic entities; the volume of retail trade, the volume of foreign trade in goods, the index of capital investments, the index of industrial products, the index of construction products, the consumer price index both in Ukraine and regions for 2013-2017 years. Based on the results of the assessment, the reasons for the financial imbalancees that arose in Ukraine during the crisis phenomena from 2014 were substantiated, an analysis of the causes of these imbalances and their forms and the impact on the stability of the financial system of the regions and the economy of the state as a whole is necessary not only to overcome the consequences of the current crisis , but also for counteracting possible crisis phenomena in the future. Scientific novelty consists in systematizing a certain number of indicators for the analysis of financial imbalances in the region's economy, and their influence on the development of regions and Ukraine as a whole is considered. The main ways to determine the causes and consequences of the planned regional economic policy, which takes into account the specifics of regions in the most important industries and aimed at solving problems that impede economic development. Along with this, the reasons and consequences of financial imbalanced in the region's economy are substantiated, as well as criteria for assessing the effectiveness of indicators that directly affect financial imbalanced in the economy of Ukraine and regions in particular. Conclusions: trends and prospects for the development of financial imbalanced in the regional economy are very important for the regions, which contributes to the formation of a balanced structure of the regional economy. Thus, the stability of the economic development of financial imbalanced implies the existence of unity, autonomy and integrity.

The Real Sector of the Economy in October 2015: Factors and Trends

In October 2015, the negative factors in the Russian economy included, firstly, declining consumer demand on the back of a drop of 11.7% and 5.2% in retail trade volume and households’ real income, respectively, secondly, a 5.2% reduction of investments in capital assets and, thirdly, a higher slump of up to 5.9% in manufacturing (all the above data are given on a year-on-year basis).In addition to the above, throughout 2015 weakening of contribution of net exports to the GDP dynamics was observed. In October 2015, gross wages growth rates slowed down to 3.0% against 8.9% a year before and the real wages downward trend consolidated: there was a 10% year-on-year drop in real wages. In October 2015, higher differentiation in labour remuneration across all the lines of economic activities with growth of 8% year-on-year and 13.7% year-on-year in the general rate of unemployment and the number of registered unemployed with the public employment service, respectively, complicated the situation on the labour market.

Russia's Real Sector of the Economy in January 2015: Factors and Trends

In January 2015, a drop of 5.1% and 6.3% year-on-year in retail trade volume and investments in capital assets, respectively, had a considerable effect on the domestic market. The dynamics of the consumer market was determined by a simultaneous drop of 5.5% and 3.5% in demand on food products and non-food products, respectively, as compared to January 2014. In January 2015, the market of investment goods and services was characterized by a decrease of 3.5% year on year in building. In January 2015, industrial production increased by 0.9% year on year with growth of 1.5% in the primary sector and a drop of 0.1% in manufacturing. In January 2015, the total number of the unemployed and the number of the officially registered unemployed increased by 3% and 2.6%, respectively, but the above indices remained much below the respective values of January 2014.

Shopping Tourism in Hungary during the Period of the Economic Crisis

This paper analyses the impacts brought about by the economic crisis starting in 2007 on Hungarian shopping tourism. Considering the long-term symbiotic relationship of the national retail trade and international inbound tourism, the crisis, which has affected each segment of the national economy, has also influenced both the characteristics of tourist shopping and the structure and volume of retail trade, with an indirect impact on the country's GDP. The study investigates the purchases of day-trippers arriving from neighbouring countries and focuses on changes that occurred between 2006 and 2010. The survey is based on the assumption that the sending markets have become more price-sensitive as a consequence of the crisis, and the changes brought about will be diverse, depending on the economic and social processes of each sending country. Demand is influenced by crisis management strategies, by the price–value ratio of goods and services available in the market, and by the business practices of retail companies. Based on secondary analysis of the databases of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and the Hungarian National Bank, the paper provides an overview of how Hungarian shopping tourism was shaped by the above factors in the period of crisis.

Russia's Real Sector of the Economy in September 2014: Factors and Trends

In September 2014, the trend of slowdown of economic dynamics by the baseline types of economic activities stopped. Growth in industrial output, manufacturing and mining amounted to 2.8%, 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively, as compared to September 2013. However, the situation is complicated by the continued drop in investment activities. Investments in capital assets decreased by 2.8%, while the volume of jobs in building, by 3.7% as compared to September 2013. In September, year-on-year growth of up to 8% in the inflation rate and a 1% reduction in real wages caused a sudden slowdown of households’ consumer activities and the retail trade volume.

The Real Sector of Economy in January-May 2014: Factors and Trends

In the first five months of 2014, the economic situation was determined by slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand and a drop in investments. In January-May 2014, investments in capital assets decreased by 3.8% against the index of the respective period of the previous year. In January-May 2014, the retail trade volume increased by 3.1% against 3.9% a year earlier. A positive contribution to the dynamics of the economic development is made by recovery of output growth in manufacturing. In January-May 2014, manufacturing output index amounted to 103.2% against 98.9% a year before with a high differentiation of production rates in different sectors which situation is primarily justified by prevalence of negative trends in production of capital goods.

Russia's Real Sector of Economy: Factors and Trends in H1 2014

In H1 2014, the business activities in the Russian economy were characterized by slowdown of growth rates of the external demand on goods of the Russian export and termination of growth in domestic demand. In H1 2014, a 2.8% reduction of investments in capital assets and the minimum growth of 2.7% in the retail trade volume in the past 4.5 years as compared to the respective period of the previous year had a negative eff ect on the domestic market. A positive factor of the current year was a renewal of industrial growth with advanced rates of development of manufacturing.

New Cities, Local Officials, and Municipal Incorporation Laws: A Supply-Side Model of City Formation

ABSTRACT:This article develops a framework for analyzing when and why municipal incorporation laws impede or facilitate boundary changes that benefit special interests. This goal is achieved by shifting the attention from demand-side factors—such as wealth, race, and heterogeneity of tastes—behind the formation of municipalities to actors who supply them: city, county, and state officials. I develop a theoretical model that shows that there is an inverse relation between the number of jurisdictions and the size of the constituency of those public officials who review incorporation petitions. I also find that: (1) ceteris paribus, more new municipalities are formed in counties with a large volume of retail trade, and (2) neither state nor local officials can block fiscally motivated incorporations.