Retail Trade Turnover Research Articles

Innovative and investment potential of the economic development of the EAEU

The article defines the innovative potential of the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter — the EAEU, the Union), assesses the structural ratio of trade in agricultural products in the total food consumption of the EAEU. The internal investment potential of the EAEU countries is described. The article considers the mechanism of foreign direct investment as a tool for increasing the gross value added of goods during their cross-border movement in the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. The dynamics of retail trade turnover in the EAEU is presented. At the same time, in the global aspect, topical issues of the quality of investments in the agro-industrial complex are touched upon, since their volumes do not meet the needs of financial support. At the same time, the mechanism of accelerating the turnover of investment capital is analyzed through the prism of identifying and assessing the state of poverty in rural areas as a risk factor for the agro — food policy of the EAEU member states. At the same time, it is most important to increase the level of food independence of the EAEU member states, to ensure conditions for the growth of the number of new high — performance jobs. The issues of production and consumption of marketable products in the EAEU member states are studied, taking into account the dynamics of prices and the socio-economic situation in the foreign trade space. Based on the generalization of the experience of integration associations of the world economic system, the article concludes that it is necessary to introduce a comprehensive intellectual system into the value chain of commodity products created in the analyzed states. The authors systematize the priorities of the conceptual development of economic relations in the integration of foreign trade processes in the EAEU until 2030. In the system of assessing the mechanism of cross-border traffic through the EAEU, the authors focus on the issues of optimizing the speed of delivery of goods from the seller to the consumer and the modernization of the road transport and logistics infrastructure of the member states of the Union. Based on the analysis of the logistics efficiency index in foreign countries, the necessary conditions for achieving the key effects of the economic development of the EAEU until 2030 are proposed.

FEATURES OF THE REGIONAL CONSUMER MARKET DEVELOPMENT

The article presents an analysis of the features of the development of the consumer market on the example of the municipal district of Cherepovets for the period from 2015 to 2019, the dynamics of retail trade turnover, the structure of turnover by forms of trade, also it reveals the socio-demographic portrait of the consumer of nonfood products, the weak and strong sides of the consumer market Cherepovets are presented.
 The authors use methods of polling, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data of Vologda region and the Russian Federation. The results of an Internet survey, which was conducted in February-March 2021, are presented.
 The importance of the implementation of municipal programs aimed at developing the consumer market, providing consumers with professional services, improving the overall quality of life of citizens, influencing the formation of a comfortable urban environment is noted.

ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ПЕРЕДУМОВ РОЗВИТКУ ДОНЕЦЬКОЇ ТА ЛУГАНСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТЕЙ З УРАХУВАННЯМ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ МАЛОГО БІЗНЕСУ

The study of socio-economic dimensions of the preconditions for the development of Donetsk and Luhansk regions allowed to distinguish between positive and negative directions of development. Thus, the positive prerequisites for the development of regions include: agricultural lands of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are characterized by high natural fertility; the mineral resource base of the regions is one of the most developed in terms of types and volumes of use of mineral resources in Ukraine, among which almost 50 % contains fuel and energy raw materials; an important place in the economy of Donetsk and Luhansk regions is occupied by industry; retail trade turnover of Donetsk and Luhansk regions from 2018-2020 begins to recover. It should also be noted that the Donetsk region is active in foreign economic activity, which has a significant impact on the development of the region, and the balance of foreign trade balance of the Donetsk region in 2014-2020 is positive. The positive trend of Luhansk region is that it has a significant share of small and medium business in the volume of sold products (goods, services). Negative prerequisites for the development of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are: the presence of armed conflict in the regions; loss of a significant part of industrial potential and reduction of indicators of socio-economic development of Donetsk and Luhansk regions; in 2020 lockdown and business interruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic; there are logistical problems in the transportation of goods; in 2020, the level of exports is declining, most industrial enterprises engaged in foreign economic activity have significantly reduced production for export; destruction of key transport and logistics links, complication of railway logistics, closure of airspace, as a result of increased load on roads from heavy, large, freight transport, in the Donetsk region there is a destruction of road surface. Also, the negative trends of Donetsk region include the lowest share of small and medium business in the volume of sold products (goods, services). The positive preconditions for the development of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts need support in the direction of strengthening these tendencies. Negative preconditions for the development of oblasts require significant changes and financial investments for radical changes in the direction of improving the situation. Thus, the intensification of small business in the Donetsk region and support for the further development of small business in the Luhansk region is a prerequisite for economic growth in these areas in the future.

Econometric Model for Identifying Factors of Income Differentiation of the Population

Purpose of the study. On the basis of the construction of a multifactorial econometric model, it is necessary to identify the factors of income differentiation of the population. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks are set: 1) to propose a typology of factors of household income differentiation; 2) on the basis of correlation analysis, to assess the closeness of the relationship between the average income of the population and those statistical indicators that maximally reflect the level of formation, the content and nature of the factors’ influence of household income differentiation; 3) using a step-by-step regression analysis algorithm to construct an econometric model to quantify the relationship between the factors of income differentiation and the income of the population.Materials and methods. In the process of preparing the article, the authors used information from the website of the Federal State Statistics Service, analytical statistical materials, scientific works of Russian and foreign scientists. The following methods were used in the paper: system analysis method (to develop a typology of factors for differentiating household income); the method of economic and mathematical modeling (when building an econometric model to quantify the relationship between the factors of income differentiation and the income of the population).Results. The classification of the factors of differentiation of household incomes was carried out according to three criteria: the level of formation, the content and nature of the influence of the factors. Four groups of statistical indicators have been formed, which, to the maximum extent, are the essence of the factors of income differentiation. An analysis of the correlation coefficients indicates a close relationship between the average income of the population of the Russian Federation regions and the overwhelming majority of statistical indicators. Assessment of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients made it possible to identify those indicators with which the indicator of the average income of the population has a significant quantitative dependence, namely: retail trade turnover per capita; the volume of personal services per capita; average monthly nominal accrued wages; the value of the subsistence minimum. This made it possible to build a four-factor econometric model.Conclusion. A typology of factors of household incomes’ differentiation is proposed, which combines such classification features as: the level of formation, the content and nature of the influence of factors. Those statistical indicators that reflect to the maximum extent the level of formation, content and nature of the influence of the previously considered factors of income differentiation on the level of income of the population are selected and grouped according to the corresponding criterion. Based on the correlation analysis, an assessment of the closeness of the relationship between the average income of the population and statistical indicators reflecting the factors of income differentiation was carried out. Using the algorithm of stepby-step regression analysis, a multivariate econometric model was built, which made it possible to identify a quantitative relationship between the factors of income differentiation and the average income of the population.

Проектирование промышленных зон и экологические проблемы в Губинском районе Азербайджана

As in the Republic of Azerbaijan, appropriate measures are being taken in the Guba district in the field of environmental policy, environmental security, and efficient use of natural resources that meet the needs of society and require environmental protection in order to achieve sustainable socio-economic development. Therefore, the interaction of society with nature, the optimization of the impact of these relations, and the search for solutions are considered as one of the important issues. In this case, the main attention should be paid to the organization of the designing the industrial zones Phin the Guba district. Because the correct designing of industrial zones helps to organize work, protect the environment, and achieve sustainable socio-economic benefits. The article presented as a result of research in this area examines the volume of industrial products produced in the Guba district, the retail trade turnover of local production and export products, design of industrial zones, and environmental problems during production.

Regional E-Commerce Development in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic

The use of e-commerce technologies in trade has been developing for several decades. Nevertheless, often the share of online purchases in the total retail trade turnover in some regions remains insignificant. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a strong driver for increasing the digital development of the population, including in the use of e-commerce. The article analyzes the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of e-commerce, using the example of the regions of the Russian Federation, and compares the corresponding growth rates. It is concluded that e-commerce has the greatest potential for its development in the case of initially low development in the region, due to the involvement of new users, rather than in more developed regions.

QUBA RAYONUNDA SƏNAYE SAHƏLƏRİNİN STRUKTURU, ƏRAZİ TƏŞKİLİ VƏ İNKİŞAF DİNAMİKASI

The article analyzes the structure, territorial organization and development dynamics of industries in Guba administrative region. The analysis of the complex of natural conditions shows that the basis for the development of industries in the region is the efficient use of local raw materials. However, the underutilization of these opportunities has created certain problems in the complex development of industry in the region as a whole. Despite the rich local natural resources and other opportunities, the share of industrial products in total production very little. As a result of statistical analysis, it was determined that in 2010 the retail trade turnover in the administrative region was 194.1 million manat, but in 2019 it increased to 453.3 million manat. This increase was also reflected in the trade turnover per capita. It is clear from the analysis of statistical data of the relevant years that these indicators amounted to 1253.18 manat and 2625.07 manat. It has also helped increase the share of local products. It was determined that currently the share of local products in the retail trade turnover in the administrative region is 78%. The share of imported products in retail trade turnover is only 22%. Key words: industrial product, in-kind expression of industrial product, industrial structure, retail trade, trade turnover, imported product

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC STATE OF THE KRASNODAR TERRITORY AND THE ROSTOV REGION

The article proposes to consider the results of the spatial analysis of the municipal districts of two regions – Krasnodar Territory and the Rostov Region – with the study of the transport connectivity of the territories of 80 municipal districts. The technique used is based on calculating the distances along the length of highways connecting the centers of municipal districts. Information sources of the study are statistical data available in the database of indicators of municipalities and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical Service of the Federal State Statistics Service for 2018. Spatial analysis is carried out on the basis of the values of the following indicators of the municipal district: the volume of shipped goods of own production, works and services performed on their own by the types of activities “manufacturing” and by the types of activities “production and distribution of electricity, gas and water”; commissioning of residential buildings; retail trade turnover; investments in fixed assets; average number of employees; pollutants emitted into the atmosphere from fuel combustion (for the generation of electricity and heat), total; the length of the road between the administrative centers of the districts. Calculated on the basis of the above indicators, assessments of the effectiveness of aggregated production technologies of municipal districts, taking into account anthropogenic impact on the environment and transport connectivity, are included in the database of the geographic information system “Economic space of the region and nature”. The results obtained indicate a higher degree of transport connectivity in the southern part of the study area and a lower level of comparative efficiency of aggregated municipal production technology in comparison with the northern part of the study area.

CURRENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF RETAIL DEVELOPMENT iN UKRAINE

Objective. The objective of the study is to analyze the main trends in the development of domestic retail trade and identify prospects for its further development. Methods. The research methods are the dialectical method of scientific cognition, general scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, systematization, comparison, grouping, method of relative quantities, abstract-logical method (for formulating conclusions). Results. The indicators of retail trade of Ukraine during 2017–2020 are analyzed. The growth of the physical volume of retail trade turnover and the predominance in its structure of trade in non-food products are established. Significant differentiation of regional development by retail trade turnover is revealed. It is highlighted that higher positions in the regional structure are traditionally occupied by regions with higher indicators of socio-economic development and regions with a tourist orientation. Analysis of the dynamics of development of domestic retail chain points on the transformation processes in 208-2019, manifested in the reduction of the number and area of ​​hypermarkets, increasing the role of stores format "near the house". Estimation of financial results of retail trade enterprises in 2017-2020 indicates their instability. As a result of the COVID pandemic, the trends of digitalization of retail trade have intensified, consumer behaviour has changed, which has led to the choice of home stores, increased online shopping, shopping with mobile devices, development of delivery services and self-pickup points, rapid development of marketplaces, active use of IT solutions level and quality of trade services, greening, increased attention to health and well-being. For the effective functioning of domestic retail trade it is necessary to introduce innovations, use updated tools of interaction with the consumer, integration and automation.

СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ТРЕНДЫ ЭЛЕКТРОННОГО РЫНКА ТОВАРОВ БЫТОВОЙ ТЕХНИКИ И ЭЛЕКТРОНИКИ

The article presents an overview of the current state and trends in the development of retail trade. The main factors affecting the functioning of this area are identified. The dynamics of retail trade turnover in Russia, including by form of ownership, is presented. It is noted that the priorities of the development of the sphere remain the development of category management, as well as digital service and e-commerce, i.e. innovative technologies – the present and future of trade.

Consumption of Goods and Services: Second Year of Pandemic Restrictions

In April 2020, due to the introduction of lockdown, consumer demand significantly dropped. A year later, in April 2021, when the epidemiological situation caused ever less concern, the consumption of goods and services increased, almost recovering to the pre-pandemic level: for example, the retail trade turnover grew by 35%, and its structure looked more like “pre-COVID”. The subjective public perception of the rise in prices has changed over the past year: an increasing proportion of households consider it significant.

РОЗВИТОК ТОРГОВЕЛЬНИХ МЕРЕЖ ПАРФУМЕРНО-КОСМЕТИЧНИХ ТОВАРІВ В УКРАЇНІ

The article reveals the main trends in the development of retail chains in the perfume and cosmetics market of Ukraine, highlights the activities of the largest drogerie chains (market leaders in perfumes and cosmetics identified as Eva, Watsons, Prostor and Cosmo, last two merged in 2020 in one chain). The main trends that influence the formation of marketing sales marketing strategies and the main aspects of the development of retail chains of the perfume and cosmetics market were analyzed; the directions of development and use of marketing sales channels were identified. It has been found that, despite engrafted omnichannel elements, drogerie chains do not use all marketing channels, which reduces the effectiveness of marketing efforts. A comparison of development rate of the world and domestic markets of perfume and cosmetics is made. According to statistics, the growth of the Ukrainian market is steady, not ahead of world indicators. The Ukrainian cosmetics market during 2009–2020 shows an upward trend, during these years the growth rate ranges from 2% (the lowest value is observed in 2011) to 3.8% (in 2019) ergo the industry is developing, the demand for cosmetic products is growing. Starting from 2019 a significant part of the market gained by Makeup.ua, an online cosmetics store without any traditional store. None of the perfume and cosmetics chains, national or international with large chain of stores, exceeded 0.5% of the Ukrainian market in 2019 and 2020. So, the leaders are set: 2 national drogerie chains, one international and one online store. It is proposed to introduce a systematic approach in retail chain marketing channel strategy, which in contrast to the existing ones considers the specific features of the retail chain. This approach allows determining the need for the formation of new marketing channels or optimization of existing ones to increase the effectiveness of marketing sales strategy of the retail chain. Analysis of statistical data on retail trade turnover of Ukraine by regions and categories of goods allowed determining regions and cities of concentration of retail enterprises. It has been established that consumers of perfumes and cosmetics in Ukraine prefer to buy in physical stores, but channels such as online store and applications double the turnover annually due to the development of technology, mobile communication and reducing consumer distrust of virtual channels sales.

ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ ІНСТРУМЕНТІВ МАРКЕТИНГОВИХ КОМУНІКАЦІЙ В УМОВАХ КРИЗИ

The world is experiencing an unprecedented crisis. As the situation with COVID-19 continues to unfold, and governments are taking swift action and decisive action to combat this global pandemic, businesses need to constantly rethink their choices and priorities. It is rare to see the whole world come together to overcome a common problem. It’s global, it’s open, and it can affect every business and every person. During the crisis, people turn to institutions for advice, reassurance and information. Increasingly, they are also looking at trading companies. In today’s environment of high uncertainty, rapid environmental variability and tight budget constraints, all market participants are forced to look for non-standard solutions for effective promotion strategies. The priority measures of anti-crisis marketing activities are marketing communications. They play an important role in shaping consumer choices. This choice applies not only to the product or service, but also to the management of messages and goals. Given the role of information in modern retail, it is advisable to analyze the features and essence of modern tools of marketing communications, the impact of the global crisis on the field of marketing communications. The urgency of the study is caused by the high degree of uncertainty in the market situation due to the global pandemic around the world. The Ukrainian market, contrary to foreign countries, is not adapted to such conditions. The article identifies the feasibility of using marketing communication tools to ensure consumer awareness of retail businesses. The regional structure of retail trade turnover, the change of real income volume of the population, as well as the change in consumer prices in Ukraine are analyzed. The expediency of maximizing attention to the choice of tools for marketing communications policy is explained. The difficulties of traditional tools implementation in marketing communications during crisis are investigated. The necessity of redistribution of the marketing budget with receiving the maximum result is defined. In the future, the results of this study can be used in the theory of marketing communication policy of enterprises in order to develop measures to improve its effectiveness in times of crisis.

APPLICATION OF THE MAIN COMPONENTS METHOD FOR DETERMINATION OF FACTORS OF LOGISTICS SERVICES MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE

The study identifies and substantiates the main factors influencing the development of the market of logistics services in Ukraine through factor analysis by the method of main components. The application of the method of factor analysis to assess the development of the market of logistics services is based on the assumption that the indicators of different blocks are only indicators of certain existing market characteristics that are not directly measured. 9 indicators were selected for the study: wholesale turnover of enterprises, retail trade turnover, volume of exports of goods, volume of imports of goods, hryvnia devaluation index against the US dollar, rail freight index, consumer price index for transport, consumer price index for fuel and lubricants, consumer price index for transport services. Bartlett’s sphericity criterion and the calculation of the adequacy of the Kaiser-Mayer-Olkin sample were used for the study. It was found that the largest variance has such components as price indices for transport, fuels and lubricants, the volume of foreign and domestic (wholesale and retail) trade, which total 83.1%. The analysis of factors according to the received calculations is made.A study of factor analysis of the development of the market of logistics services showed that the segment of freight and warehousing logistics is not significantly affected by indicators combined in the component that characterized the price indices for transport, transport services, etc., is changes in domestic and foreign trade are greater impact on changes in the volume of these segments, regardless of changes in prices for services and related goods in the market of logistics services. The selection of factors according to the proposed method allows to determine their influence, but does not fully clarify the mechanism of influence, so the direction of further research should be to identify hidden variables that determine the presence of statistical correlations.

Assessing the Spatial Dependence of the Shipped Products Volume in Dynamics

Purpose of the study. The relevance of studying the issues of assessing the volume of shipped products is due to at least two reasons. On the one hand, its role as a resultant indicator of the activity of territorial systems, on the other, its primary nature in relation to the subsequent stages of distribution and consumption. The increase in production is directly related to domestic consumption and the possibilities of promoting manufactured goods to foreign markets, which is characterized by the volume of retail and wholesale trade. The need to search for opportunities for growth in production determines the need to expand the existing ideas about these connections, including the effects of time and space. In the context of the economic space network development, the changes cannot be ignored in production and trade processes in some territories in isolation from the processes taking place in other territories. At the same time, it is obvious that any current state is a consequence of the position achieved by the considered territory in the past. The purpose of the study is to assess the spatial dependence of the volume of the shipped products in dynamics in relation to the indicators of wholesale and retail trade. Materials and methods. The paper evaluates spatial autocorrelation using univariate and bivariate Moran's indexes – indicators, characterizing production, distribution and exchange of goods. Based on the selected spatial dependencies, three models were consistently built on the panel data from 2010-2019 for 85 regions of the Russian Federation: pooled model, panel-based spatial lag model; model with a spatially weighted factor variable. The calculations were performed using the GeoDA program. Results. The results showed that spatial effects should be taken into account in the study of the volume of products shipped. The value of the global Moran's index shows a high direct connection between the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the volume of shipped products (0.29-0.39), with a weak connection for the wholesale trade turnover (0.06-0.18). In turn, the bivariate Moran's index showed that the volume of shipped products has a spatial relationship with the turnover of wholesale trade in neighboring regions of the Russian Federation. Domestic final consumption, characterized by per capita retail trade turnover, also has a positive effect on the volume of products shipped per capita. The constructed models showed that the volume of shipped products is positively affected by an increase in wholesale trade in the region and in neighboring territories, retail trade in the region and the development of production in neighboring territories. Conclusion. The article discusses a model that allows linking the development of the production of goods with the state of the channels of their promotion both inside the territory and outside it. At the same time, the use of panel data in the calculations helps to obtain reliable and meaningful estimates in the models. Within the framework of the proposed models, it was possible to identify the connection between production and wholesale trade, which was not previously determined on cross-sectional data. The results obtained make it possible to improve the quality of decisions made in matters of the territorial organization of economic activity in the regions, contributing to the development of production that depends on the possibilities of promoting manufactured goods through the wholesale and retail network.

КОМПЛЕКС МОДЕЛЕЙ ДЛЯ ОЦЕНКИ УРОВНЯ ПРИВЛЕКАТЕЛЬНОСТИ ГОРОДОВ РОССИИ

The article is devoted to the issues of determining the attractiveness of large Russian cities for residents, entrepreneurs and tourism, as well as the factors that determine it. In view of this, the parameters of the socio-economic development in the cities with population over 100 thousand people are considered. Assessment of the cities’ attractiveness for the population implied an analyzing: the number of the settlement’s inhabitants, the level of wages, the level of crime, the provision of housing and doctors, as well as the magnitude of migration growth. As part of assessing the attractiveness of the cities for entrepreneurs, the volume of shipments of goods of their own production and the provision of services on their own, retail trade turnover, the level of employment, the availability and degree of depreciation of fixed assets, the number of residents, and the volume of investments in fixed assets were taken into account. From the standpoint of the forming tourist flows, the number of persons accommodated in collective accommodation facilities, the number of places in collective accommodation facilities, and the average number of employees in collective accommodation facilities were considered. On the basis of the study, a number of regression equations were formed, and an analysis of variance was carried out. At the same time, the assessment of the attractiveness of the territory from the point of view of tourists was carried out, inter alia, on the basis of the number of relevant requests on the Internet. Five groups of cities were identified, which are characterized by a specific ratio between the number of persons accommodated in the CSW and the number of Internet requests. The corresponding mathematical formalization of these relations is carried out. The proposed models of the attractiveness of cities complement each other and make it possible to implement an integrated approach to solving this problem. It is shown that the improvement of the situation, both in individual regions and in the country as a whole, is possible only through integrated socio-economic development, that is, through the use of indirect measures and the creation of favorable conditions for the formation of positive changes.

Retail Internet Trade in Russia: Standing, Trends and Further Development

The article studies trends in the development of retail internet-trade in Russia based on official statistic data. The research showed that the share of internet-trade in the total retail trade turnover is very low, the target indicators of the Strategy of Trade Development in the Russian Federation up to 2025 were not attained. Only one third of the population use the Internet to buy goods and the average cost of sale per one customer in the network makes up 10 500 rubles a year. Different factors exerted various influence on the dynamics of yearly cost of internetsales per one customer: the growth in the total volume of market (trade turnover) of internet-trade had a positive impact, while a share of the population using the Internet for purchases had an adverse affect. The impact of the corona-virus pandemic, which caused a mass temporary shift to internet buying was not studied in the work. Findings of the analysis gave a chance to ground the conditions of the further development of internet-trade. Among promising conditions the article underlined a growing cover of different regions by the Internet, as this factor is an infrastructural one for building internet-trade. Another promising line in further development of internet-trade is selling goods by mobile applications, as mobile access to the Internet is prevailing for people of the country.

Causality of external population migration intensity and regional socio-economic development of Ukraine

The Carpathian Region (Zakarpattia, Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk) is inferior to other regions in Ukraine regarding its economic development, which does not contribute to migration stability and, rather, serves as a factor motivating the active part of the population to emigrate. The problem of the labor market disproportions in the Carpathian Region is one of the significant causes of the formation and subsequent implementation of migration intentions, especially in rural areas, less economically developed areas, and district centers, where labor demand is much lower. The research aims to develop an innovative approach to calculating the intensity of the population’s external migration based on the introduction of a correction coefficient, which enables to consider the scale of transit migration in the Carpathian Region. The data presented in the study were collected for the period 2005–2018. Granger causality analysis is used to assess the relationship between migration and socio-economic development of the region. The analysis reveals that in all regions of the Carpathian Region, there is a short-run causal relationship between the intensity of external migration and the share of total household expenditure on food; in the medium run, the real household income, the size of the average monthly wages, and the volume of foreign portfolio investment, the foreign economic activity and retail trade turnover in the region; in the long run, living standards and indicators of economic growth. Future studies may require a more diverse set of indicators to evaluate the causal relationship in other regions of Ukraine, which will provide the integrity of the results of Granger causality analysis. AcknowledgmentThe research has been conducted within the framework of applied research ‘Migration Activity of the Population of the Carpathian Region’ (Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0119U002010, 2019–2021).

Coverage of the 2008-2009 Economic Crisis in the Media and Relationship of the Coverage to Actual Situation

The primary goal of this paper is to examine the coverage of the 2008-2009 economic crisis in the Lithuanian online media as well as its relationship to the actual economic situation and perception of media consumers. The theoretical basis for this research is made up of the theories of agenda-setting and framing. The coverage of the media is assessed on the basis of the corpus of economic reporting in 2006–2014 in two Lithuanian media sources, the news agency BNS and DELFI news website, by analysing the volume and the tone of the reports. The coverage in the media is then compared to some statistical economic indicators.The main findings of the paper are the following:1. The coverage of the crisis in the media reflected rather accurately the actual situation: the fluctuations of the volume of the reports largely followed the timeline of the main events of the crisis. The correlation between the reporting tone and industrial production index as a gauge of the economic situation was rather high, which supports the adequacy of the coverage. The relationship between the reporting and economic indicators was found to be stronger in the case of the BNS than in DELFI.2. Negative reports were found to be dominating over positive ones. It is partially inevitable due to the context of the crisis, but the effect of the general media negativity bias cannot be ruled out either.3. During the year of the worst economic situation, the number of the reports of both highly negative and highly positive tone increased, but the volume of the two extremes decreased with the improvement of the economic situation. This might suggest that the media was aiming to counterweight the flow of very negative news during the crisis.4. On average, the tone of the BNS news agency coverage was more positive than that of DELFI. The factors behind this trend could be the linguistic features of the reporting style (usage of intensifying modal words as well as negatively or positively image-evoking lexis) and the intention to attract attention from the audience.5. Certain asymmetry was noticed in the public reaction to the coverage of the crisis in the media as media consumers reacted more rapidly and for a longer time period to the deterioration in the reporting tone than to its improvement.6. The correlation to media coverage was stronger in the case of the consumer sentiment indicator rather than in the case of the indicator for consumer behaviour (retail trade turnover index).It should be noted that the analysis was limited to only two media channels, so the inclusion of other media channels, especially television, could make such research more informative. Further research could include an additional corpus of reports with such keywords as “recession”, “recovery”, “growth”, “unemployment” and similar items. An analysis of the effects of linguistic factors alone on the reporting tone could also provide some interesting insights. Research on the coverage tone in relation to different subjects (economy, companies and political events) could be another valuable addition to the study.

An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia

Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.