Results Of Species Distribution Models Research Articles

Species Distribution Models as Tools for Community Empowerment and Informed Decision Making in Colombia’s Chocó Pacific Coast Fisheries

Changes in marine ecosystem dynamics have led to alterations in the availability of fish in established fishing grounds. Predictive models suggest their utility in understanding and predicting species distribution at varying depths and times of the year, significantly influencing regional fisheries management. Thus, access to information on oceanographic conditions, serving as a science-based decision-making support tool for artisanal fishers, has been identified as an adaptation strategy fostering social empowerment in the Colombian Pacific region. To address this need, an open-source WebGIS (geographic information system) was co-created to provide users with the results of species distribution models of marine fish species, aiming to expand knowledge of the ever-changing environment dynamics. The Chocó Artisanal Fishing Geovisor offers options for planning fishing operations and provides tools for understanding the results of species distribution models and resource management. By promoting informed decision making and community empowerment, it serves as a strategic response to marine environmental fluctuations, establishing itself as an essential tool for adapting to shifting marine conditions and ensuring food security.

An Invisible Boundary between Geographic Ranges of Cryptic Species of Narrow-Headed Voles (Stenocranius, Lasiopodomys, Cricetidae) in Transbaikalia

The narrow-headed vole species complex is represented by Lasiopodomys gregalis and L. raddei, which probably diverged at the beginning of the Middle Pleistocene and came into secondary contact in the Transbaikal region. The current study analyzed mitochondrial gene cytochrome b, nuclear gene BRCA1, and microsatellite data and was aimed at clarifying geographic ranges of these species and searching for hybrid zones between them. It turned out that the geographic range of L. raddei is almost surrounded by that of L. gregalis; these species are strictly parapatric without a single detected sympatry zone. Although in none of the tested populations did the BRCA1 genotyping contradict the pattern revealed by mitochondrial cytb, microsatellite loci showed traces of hybridization in several populations. Results of species distribution modeling indicated that these species are characterized by quite similar (caused by the same environmental factors), but nevertheless significantly different, ecological preferences.

Modeling habitat suitability of bats to identify high priority areas for field monitoring and conservation.

Bats provide important ecosystem services but face severe threats due to land and climate changes. Although bats are an important component of mammal diversity in Iran, the ecology of many species remains virtually unstudied in the country. Here we applied the maximum entropy approach to model habitat suitability of bat species in Iran, identify the most important variables for their distribution, predict high priority areas for field monitoring and conservation, and estimate the coverage of the bat species' suitable habitats by the existing protected areas. We created a richness map for the twelve species to identify high priority areas for field monitoring and conservation. The results of species distribution modeling showed that Pipistrellus kuhlii (828,977.2 km2) and Miniopterus pallidus (646,581.9 km2) had the largest distribution ranges and Rhinopoma microphyllum (211,202.7 km2) and Rousettus aegyptiacus (218,278.6 km2) had the smallest distribution ranges in Iran. By averaging the importance of each ecological variable across the 12 species, we found that distance to forests (with a negative association) is the most important ecological driver of bat distribution in Iran. The Zagros Mountains were identified as a hotspot of bats based on the distribution of the 12 species. Our findings showed that small proportions of each species suitable habitats were covered by protected areas and protected suitable habitats varied from 3.2%for Pipistrellus kuhlii to15.9% for Tadarida teniotis. This study highlights the importance of forests for bat conservation showing that forest conservation is a high priority in the country. Areas which have the highest richness should be prioritized for field monitoring and conservation.

Contact zone of two different chloroplast lineages and genetic guidelines for seed transfer in Quercus serrata and Quercus crispula

AbstractWithin their natural distribution ranges, plant species exhibit a genetic structure that has been created by global climate change and natural selection over long periods. This genetic structure needs to be conserved for sustainable use of genetic resources. To conserve local forests with different genetic structures, genetic guidelines for seed and seedling transfer in individual species are necessary. Genetic guidelines have been published for 43 Japanese tree species using population genetic data; however, for practical use, more detailed genetic borders between important genetic lineages should be clarified to inform seed collection and planting. Thus, we investigated in detail the genetic borders between two important Japanese oak species, Quercus serrata and Quercus crispula, in the Chubu region of Japan using chloroplast and nuclear DNA markers, and we discuss the factors that influenced border creation using the results of species distribution modeling (SDM). The chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) haplotype was clearly different within the Chubu region of Japan but the difference in nuclear DNA between northern and southern haplotype populations was very small, both in Q. serrata and Q. crispula. The results of SDM showed that during the last glacial maximum (LGM) Q. serrata was distributed mostly along the coastline but Q. crispula was distributed not only along the coast but also in mountainous areas further inland. The cpDNA genetic borders of these two oak species are complex and seem to have been influenced by topography and their distribution during the LGM. We propose and discuss genetic guidelines for these two oak species based on the results of this study.

Modelling the potential spread of the Red-billed Leiothrix Leiothrix lutea in Italy

ABSTRACTCapsule: The introduced Red-billed Leiothrix Leiothrix lutea can greatly expand its range in Italy, with many regions being at high risk of invasion due to their high habitat suitability.Aims: To assess the environmental variables affecting the distribution of the Red-billed Leiothrix during the invasion process, and to predict the potential distribution of the species in Italy.Methods: We retrieved data on 548 occurrences from Liguria (northern Italy), Tuscany, and Latium (Central Italy) using the Ornitho.it portal, a citizen science-based resource. We used species distribution models to assess the most important climatic and landscape variables for the presence of the species and to generate a countrywide habitat suitability map.Results: Red-billed Leiothrix distribution was jointly affected by climatic and landscape variables, being related to precipitation seasonality, percentage cover of agricultural areas, and annual precipitation. Habitat suitability for the species was highest at intermediate levels of precipitation seasonality, decreased with the amount of agricultural areas, and increased with annual precipitation. The results of species distribution models were highly consistent across regions. The areas with the highest suitability for the species occurred in a strip spanning the northern and western sides of Italy, particularly in regions with a Mediterranean climate.Conclusion: Broad areas of Italy have a high risk of invasion by the Red-billed Leiothrix. We provide fine-grained information on the magnitude of habitat suitability over the Italian peninsula.

Conservation of data deficient species under multiple threats: Lessons from an iconic tropical butterfly (Teinopalpus aureus)

With increasing pressure from wildlife trade, conservation efforts must balance deficiencies in distribution data for species (the Wallacean shortfall) with the risk of increasing accessibility of locality for collectors. The Golden Kaiser-I-Hind (Teinopalpus aureus Mell) is an iconic butterfly restricted to Southeast Asia, popular in trade markets but lacking in ecological and conservation information. We compiled occurrence records and used them to assess multiple threats of T. aureus distribution-wide and at the national level. Results of species distribution models suggest that suitable habitats of T. aureus are montane forests in mid to high elevations in Southern China, Laos and Vietnam. However, habitat networks for the species are poorly connected, with some portions of its distribution experiencing intensive deforestation and threatened by climate change. The trade assessment results showed specimens of T. aureus were available for sale with high prices, indicating potential pressure from trade markets. We also found different conservation statuses and efforts to protect T. aureus across countries; the species is under strict protection in China, moderate protection in Vietnam and has no protection in Laos. Both recorded locations and projected distribution in the three countries were poorly covered by protected areas. These results together demonstrate the importance of distribution data in conservation management of threatened species while highlighting trade-offs inherent in not making location information widely available when trade pressure is present. Finally, we strongly encourage cross-border cooperation in sharing ecological information for consistent conservation management of species under multiple threats from habitat loss, climate change and illegal wildlife trade.

Translocation of Otostegia bucharica, a highly threatened narrowly distributed relict shrub

Translocation is a recognized means of rescuing imperiled species but the evidence for the long-term success of translocations is limited. We report the successful translocation of reproductive individuals of a critically endangered shrub Otostegia bucharica from a site facing imminent habitat destruction into a nearby natural population of the species. The relocated plants were visited the year after planting and 13 years later to assess short- and long-term plant survival. Significant percentage of plants that survived transplanting shock and very dry spring following transplanting (around 36%), and further decrease of this number in the next 12 years by only 14%, indicated that O. bucharica is amenable to translocation using reproductive plants. Based on results of species distribution modeling, and failed attempts of ex situ cultivation, we propose introduction of this species into areas with suitable climatic and soil conditions. However, because there is currently no nature reserve in Uzbekistan having suitable conditions for the species under the present climate and that expected in the near future, and because all known habitats of O. bucharica are exposed to the very strong anthropogenic pressure, establishment of a new protected area, awareness building and involvement of local community in conservation activities are required to prevent extinction of this extremely rare species.

The importance of temporal resolution for niche modelling in dynamic marine environments

AbstractAimHighly dynamic ocean environments can experience dramatic changes over relatively short timeframes, affecting the spatial distribution of resources and therefore the presence or absence of highly mobile species. We use simulation studies to investigate how different temporal resolutions might affect the results of species distribution models for highly mobile species (e.g. cetaceans) in marine environments.LocationAzores archipelago, Portugal.MethodsWe developed three virtual species with different habitat preferences influenced by (1) only static (topographic), (2) only dynamic (oceanographic), and (3) both dynamic and static variables. Assuming that species would reposition themselves daily according to these preferences (as has been observed for large marine foragers such as cetaceans), we used two different approaches (generalized linear model and generalized boosted model) to test the effect of using daily, weekly and monthly environmental datasets to model distributions.ResultsThe results showed that the selection of different temporal scales has a very important effect on model predictions. When dynamic variables are important components of habitat preference, models based on daily or weekly timeframes performed best at reconstructing the known niche.Main conclusionIt is important that we consider temporal resolution when applying species distribution models. Several factors (e.g. species ecology and oceanographic characteristics of the ecosystem) should be taken into consideration when selecting an adequate temporal scale for niche modelling. For fine scale applications (e.g. dynamic ocean management), highly dynamic ecosystems, and highly mobile species, our results suggest exploring temporal resolution of 7–8 days rather than coarser temporal scales. For some applications annual, seasonal or even monthly averages may produce inferior or inaccurate models.

Benthic Crustacea and Mollusca distribution in Arctic fjord – case study of patterns in Hornsund, Svalbard

Summary We present the results of species distribution modeling conducted on macrobenthic occurrence data collected between 2002 and 2014 in Arctic fjord – Hornsund. We focus on species from Mollusca and Crustacea taxa. This study investigates the importance of individual environmental factors for benthic species distribution, with a special emphasis on bottom water temperature. It aims to verify the hypothesis that the distribution of species is controlled by low water temperatures in the fjord and that the inner basins of the fjord serve as potential refugia for Arctic species threatened by the climate change-related intensification of warmer water inflows. Our results confirm the importance of bottom water temperature in regulating the presence of benthic fauna in the Hornsund fjord. The distribution of studied species is clearly related to specific water mass – colder ( 1°C); and the preferred temperature regimes seem to be species specific and unrelated to analyzed groups. This study supports the notion that inner basins of the Hornsund fjord are potential refugia for cold water Arctic fauna, while the outer and central basins provide suitable habitats for fauna that prefer warmer waters.

The role of time and species identities in spatial patterns of species richness and conservation.

Many conservation actions are justified on the basis of managing biodiversity. Biodiversity, in terms of species richness, is largely the product of rare species. This is problematic because the intensity of sampling needed to characterize communities and patterns of rarity or to justify the use of surrogates has biased sampling in favor of space over time. However, environmental fluctuations interacting with community dynamics lead to temporal variations in where and when species occur, potentially affecting conservation planning by generating uncertainty about results of species distribution modeling (including range determinations), selection of surrogates for biodiversity, and the proportion of biodiversity composed of rare species. To have confidence in the evidence base for conservation actions, one must consider whether temporal replication is necessary to produce broad inferences. Using approximately 20 years of macrofaunal data from tidal flats in 2 harbors, we explored variation in the identity of rare, common, restricted range, and widespread species over time and space. Over time, rare taxa were more likely to increase in abundance or occurrence than to remain rare or disappear and to exhibit temporal patterns in their occurrence. Space-time congruency in ranges (i.e., spatially widespread taxa were also temporally widespread) was observed only where samples were collected across an environmental gradient. Fifteen percent of the taxa in both harbors changed over time from having spatially restricted ranges to having widespread ranges. Our findings suggest that rare species can provide stability against environmental change, because the majority of species were not random transients, but that selection of biodiversity surrogates requires temporal validation. Rarity needs to be considered both spatially and temporally, as species that occur randomly over time are likely to play a different role in ecosystem functioning than those exhibiting temporal structure (e.g., seasonality). Moreover, temporal structure offers the opportunity to place management and conservation activities within windows of maximum opportunity.

Molecular and iridescent feather reflectance data reveal recent genetic diversification and phenotypic differentiation in a cloud forest hummingbird.

The present day distribution and spatial genetic diversity of Mesoamerican biota reflects a long history of responses to habitat change. The hummingbird Lampornis amethystinus is distributed in northern Mesoamerica, with geographically disjunct populations. Based on sampling across the species range using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and nuclear microsatellites jointly analysed with phenotypic and climatic data, we (1) test whether the fragmented distribution is correlated with main evolutionary lineages, (2) assess body size and plumage color differentiation of populations in geographic isolation, and (3) evaluate a set of divergence scenarios and demographic patterns of the hummingbird populations. Analysis of genetic variation revealed four main groups: blue-throated populations (Sierra Madre del Sur); two groups of amethyst-throated populations (Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and Sierra Madre Oriental); and populations east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (IT) with males showing an amethyst throat. The most basal split is estimated to have originated in the Pleistocene, 2.39-0.57million years ago (MYA), and corresponded to groups of populations separated by the IT. However, the estimated recent divergence time between blue- and amethyst-throated populations does not correspond to the 2-MY needed to be in isolation for substantial plumage divergence, likely because structurally iridescent colors are more malleable than others. Results of species distribution modeling and Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis fit a model of lineage divergence west of the Isthmus after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and that the species' suitable habitat was disjunct during past and current conditions. These results challenge the generality of the contraction/expansion glacial model to cloud forest-interior species and urges management of cloud forest, a highly vulnerable ecosystem to climate change and currently facing destruction, to prevent further loss of genetic diversity or extinction.

Neotropical forest expansion during the last glacial period challenges refuge hypothesis

The forest refuge hypothesis (FRH) has long been a paradigm for explaining the extreme biological diversity of tropical forests. According to this hypothesis, forest retraction and fragmentation during glacial periods would have promoted reproductive isolation and consequently speciation in forest patches (ecological refuges) surrounded by open habitats. The recent use of paleoclimatic models of species and habitat distributions revitalized the FRH, not by considering refuges as the main drivers of allopatric speciation, but instead by suggesting that high contemporary diversity is associated with historically stable forest areas. However, the role of the emerged continental shelf on the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot of eastern South America during glacial periods has been ignored in the literature. Here, we combined results of species distribution models with coalescent simulations based on DNA sequences to explore the congruence between scenarios of forest dynamics through time and the genetic structure of mammal species cooccurring in the central region of the Atlantic Forest. Contrary to the FRH predictions, we found more fragmentation of suitable habitats during the last interglacial (LIG) and the present than in the last glacial maximum (LGM), probably due to topography. We also detected expansion of suitable climatic conditions onto the emerged continental shelf during the LGM, which would have allowed forests and forest-adapted species to expand. The interplay of sea level and land distribution must have been crucial in the biogeographic history of the Atlantic Forest, and forest refuges played only a minor role, if any, in this biodiversity hotspot during glacial periods.

Bioclimatic niches of selected endemic Ixora species on the Philippines: predicting habitat suitability due to climate change

The pantropical genus Ixora is highly diverse, with several species endemic to the Philippines. Owing to their endemic nature, many of these species are endangered and little is known about their basic biology. This study aimed to establish baseline information about the bioclimatic niches of Ixora species endemic to the Philippines, determine suitable areas and potential range shifts under future climate conditions, and identify priority areas for conservation and future research. Locality records of 12 endemic Ixora species from the Philippine archipelago were analyzed, with a particular focus on the five most abundant species I. auriculata, I. bartlingii, I. cumingiana, I. macrophylla, and one island endemic species, Ixora palawanensis. Bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database at 2.5′ resolution were used, with a focus on annual means and seasonality of temperature and precipitation as well as precipitation of the warmest quarter. Analysis of the relationships of the species locations with the bioclimatic variables showed that the bioclimatic niches of the five focal Ixora species generally had narrow temperature and wider precipitation niches. Species distribution modeling with the model Maxent suggested that I. auriculata and I. bartlingii will likely shift their geographic distributions southwards under predicted levels of climate change, while I. cumingiana and I. macrophylla were found to likely expand their ranges. Ixora palawanensis, in contrast, was predicted to decrease its potential distribution with future climate change. Further, results of species distribution modeling for the rare endemic Ixora species I. bibracteata, I. chartacea, I. ebracteolata, I. inaequifolia, I. longistipula, I. luzoniensis, and I. macgregorii were presented, which, however, had much less observation points and therefore only provide a first estimate of potential species distributions. The generated potential habitat suitability maps can assist policy makers in designing conservation strategies for the species and in identifying areas with potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080.

Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

Does Elevated Temperature and Doubled CO2 Increase Growth of Three Potentially Invasive Plants?

AbstractClimate change, comprising an increase in carbon dioxide levels coupled with elevated temperature, may favor invasive plants, as they possess traits that will facilitate adaptation to a new climate. In particular, alien plants of subtropical origin introduced to a colder region are expected to increase the number and size of their populations and spread farther with climate change. Seedlings of three such woody alien species in New Zealand (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava, and Schefflera actinophylla) were grown in environmental chambers under the combination of two temperature (23.7 and 26 C [74.7 and 78.8 F]) and two CO2 (450 and 900 ppmv) regimes, simulating current conditions and conditions projected for the end of the century. Total biomass of S. actinophylla was 45% higher and total leaf area 35% larger under doubled CO2 compared to current CO2. Root : shoot ratio was higher under doubled CO2 across all species, and the number of branches was increased for P. guajava. The only significant interactive effect of elevated temperature and doubled CO2 was for relative growth rate of the height of S. actinophylla seedlings. This study provides strong evidence of more vigorous growth of S. actinophylla under future conditions, particularly increased CO2, whereas the other two species appear likely to maintain current growth rates. Better knowledge of the types of future conditions that may benefit such species, together with results of species distribution models and competition and eco-physiology studies will ensure robust weed risk assessments.

Phylogeography and postglacial expansion of the endangered semi-aquatic mammal Galemys pyrenaicus

BackgroundSpecies with strict ecological requirements may provide new insights into the forces that shaped the geographic variation of genetic diversity. The Pyrenean desman, Galemys pyrenaicus, is a small semi-aquatic mammal that inhabits clean streams of the northern half of the Iberian Peninsula and is endangered in most of its geographic range, but its genetic structure is currently unknown. While the stringent ecological demands derived from its aquatic habitat might have caused a partition of the genetic diversity among river basins, Pleistocene glaciations would have generated a genetic pattern related to glacial refugia.ResultsTo study the relative importance of historical and ecological factors in the genetic structure of G. pyrenaicus, we used mitochondrial and intronic sequences of specimens covering most of the species range. We show, first, that the Pyrenean desman has very low levels of genetic diversity compared to other mammals. In addition, phylogenetic and dating analyses of the mitochondrial sequences reveal a strong phylogeographic structure of a Middle Pleistocene origin, suggesting that the main lineages arose during periods of glacial isolation. Furthermore, both the spatial distribution of nuclear and mitochondrial diversity and the results of species distribution modeling suggest the existence of a major glacial refugium in the northwestern part of the Iberian Peninsula. Finally, the main mitochondrial lineages show a striking parapatric distribution without any apparent exchange of mitochondrial haplotypes between the lineages that came into secondary contact (although with certain permeability to nuclear genes), indicating incomplete mixing after the post-glacial recolonization. On the other hand, when we analyzed the partition of the genetic diversity among river basins, the Pyrenean desman showed a lower than expected genetic differentiation among main rivers.ConclusionsThe analysis of mitochondrial and intronic markers in G. pyrenaicus showed the predominant effects of Pleistocene glaciations on the genetic structure of this species, while the distribution of the genetic diversity was not greatly influenced by the main river systems. These results and, particularly, the discovery of a marked phylogeographic structure, may have important implications for the conservation of the Pyrenean desman.

物种分布模型理论研究进展

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 物种分布模型理论研究进展 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201212031735 作者: 作者单位: 西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室;中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室;中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室,中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室;中国林业科学研究院荒漠化研究所,中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室;北京电子科技职业学院生物工程学院,中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室,中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 环境保护部环保公益性行业科研专项(201209028); 国家自然科学基金(40741003); 西北农林科技大学12年博士科研启动基金(Z111021309) Advances in theoretical issues of species distribution models Author: Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A,,,,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:利用物种分布模型估计物种的真实和潜在分布区,已成为区域生态学与生物地理学中非常活跃的研究领域。然而,到目前为止,这项技术的理论基础仍然存在不足之处,一些关键的生态过程未能被有效纳入到物种分布模型的理论框架中,从而为解释物种分布模型预测的结果带来了诸多困惑。鉴于此, 总结了物种分布模型的理论基础;系统探讨了物种分布模型与物种分布区的关系;特别指出了物种分布模型研究中存在的理论问题;重点阐述了物种分布模型未来的发展方向。研究认为,物种分布模型与生态位理论、源-库理论、种群动态理论、集合种群理论、进化理论等具有重要的联系;正确理解物种分布模型的预测结果与物种分布区的关系,有赖于对影响物种分布的3个主要因素(环境条件、物种相互作用与物种迁移能力)做出定量的分离;目前物种分布模型主要存在的问题是未能将物种的相互作用和物种的迁移能力有效纳入到模型的构建过程中;未来物种分布模型的发展应该加强模型背后理论框架的研究,并进一步加强整合物种相互作用过程、种群动态过程、迁移过程和物种进化过程等内容。研究还认为,从更高的理论层次模拟功能群和群落结构将是未来物种分布模型的重要发展方向。 Abstract:With the development of spatial techniques in geographic information systems (GIS), new methods have allowed for robust and detailed preparation of digital models of the earth's surface elevation, interpolation of climate parameters, and remote sensing of surface conditions in terrestrial environments. These methods in turn have led to greatly enhanced species distribution models (also called species niche models) by providing estimates of environmental conditions and predictions of potential and actual species distribution areas across entire landscapes. Species distribution models have become the subject of active field of research in large-scale ecology and biogeography, and have been used to solve many ecological issues in recent decades. Models are used for biodiversity assessment; biological reserve design; habitat management and restoration; population viability analysis; environmental risk assessment; invasive species management; community and ecosystem modeling; and predicting the effects of global environmental change on species and ecosystems. Species distribution models using species occurrence records (presence only or presence/absence data) associated with environmental variables seek to determine the fundamental niche or realized niche of a particular species, and then to project this niche onto the landscape of interest to reflect the potential distribution area of the species. Results could be interpreted as the probability of occurrence of the species, species habitat suitability or species relative richness. However, there is still insufficient knowledge of the theoretical basis of species distribution models, as some of the key ecological processes have not been incorporated into the framework of these models. This generates substantial confusion when the predicted results of species distribution models are explained. For more efficient use and further development of species distribution models, this study provides: 1) a full overview of the history and recent theoretical advances in the field of species distribution models; 2) a systematic discussion of the relationship between species distribution model and species distribution area; 3) a highlight of the critical limitations inherent in species distribution models; and 4) a focus on challenges of species distribution models for future research. Results from this study suggest that the theoretical basis of species distribution models is strongly related to niche theory, source-sink theory, population dynamics theory, metapopulation theory, and evolutionary theory. Proper understanding of the relationship between the predicted and actual species distribution area depends on separation of three factors (environmental condition, species interactions and species migration ability) affecting the distribution area of species. The main problems of current species distribution models are that they fail to efficiently integrate species interaction and species migration ability into the model building process, which creates gaps between the predicted and actual species distribution area under normal circumstances. Future development of species distribution models should focus on strengthening their inherent theoretical framework, and must integrate species interactions process, population dynamics process, migration process and evolutionary process into models. This study also suggests that simulating functional groups and community structure from higher theoretical levels is important for the development of species distribution models. We believe that through the efforts of scientists, future species distribution models can overcome the above-mentioned drawbacks and can dynamically model the multi-species potential distribution area, thus providing a more in-depth theoretical study of community ecology and biogeography. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Conservation planning under climate change: accounting for adaptive potential and migration capacity in species distribution models

AbstractAimA number of assumptions underpinning the use of species distribution models to predict biological responses to climate change are violated for temperate and boreal tree species that are widespread, long‐lived and genetically adapted to local climate conditions. To address this situation, we propose a methodology to account for the potential effects of genetic structure, adaptive potential and limited migration capacity.LocationBritish Columbia, Canada.MethodsSimilar to the widely used ‘no migration’ and ‘unlimited migration’ scenarios, we employ more refined biological response scenarios to evaluate the potential effects of genetic adaptation to local environments and the capacity of species to adapt and migrate. These scenarios are realized by two sets of geographic delineations that partition the species range into multiple populations and that subdivide the study area into smaller landscape units.ResultsIn a case study for British Columbia, we demonstrate how the approach can be used to evaluate the adequacy of a reserve system of 906 protected areas to ensure long‐term maintenance of forest genetic resources for 48 tree species. We find that between 35% and 85% of locally adapted populations in protected areas are maintained under a median climate change scenario until the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that assumptions about migration and adaptation capacity of species have a major effect on the projected conservation status.Main conclusionsWe propose that the results of species distribution models have practical value for conservation planning if the focus is on maintenance rather than loss of suitable habitat. Accounting for genetic structure, adaptive potential and migration capacity through best‐case and worst‐case scenarios provide important information to effectively allocate limited resources available for conservation action.

Delimiting the geographical background in species distribution modelling

AbstractAim The extent of the study area (geographical background, GB) can strongly affect the results of species distribution models (SDMs), but as yet we lack objective and practicable criteria for delimiting the appropriate GB. We propose an approach to this problem using trend surface analysis (TSA) and provide an assessment of the effects of varying GB extent on the performance of SDMs for four species.Location Mainland Spain.Methods Using data for four well known wild ungulate species and different GBs delimited with a TSA, we assessed the effects of GB extent on the predictive performance of SDMs: specifically on model calibration (Miller’s statistic) and discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic plot, AUC; sensitivity and specificity), and on the tendency of the models to predict environmental potential when they are projected beyond their training area.Results In the training area, discrimination significantly increased and calibration decreased as the GB was enlarged. In contrast, as GB was enlarged, both discriminatory power and calibration decreased when assessed in the core area of the species distributions. When models trained using small GBs were projected beyond their training area, they showed a tendency to predict higher environmental potential for the species than those models trained using large GBs.Main conclusions By restricting GB extent using a geographical criterion, model performance in the core area of the species distribution can be significantly improved. Large GBs make models demonstrate high discriminatory power but are barely informative. By delimiting GB using a geographical criterion, the effect of historical events on model parameterization may be reduced. Thus purely environmental models are obtained that, when projected onto a new scenario, depict the potential distribution of the species. We therefore recommend the use of TSA in geographically delimiting the GB for use in SDMs.