Foresight Results Research Articles

Exploring the benefits of applying indigenous knowledge (IK) into foresight process

PurposeIndigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.Design/methodology/approachThe fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.FindingsWith the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.Practical implicationsIndigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.Originality/valueThis study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

Foresight Research as а Strategic Planning Component

An important component of the state organizational and economic mechanism to promote high-tech production is the presence of a well-established system of strategic planning, which helps to determine the trajectory of long-term changes in technological competitiveness. Creating an effective policy framework in the field of science, technology and innovation (STI), its planning is an important element of a sustainable policy system. Roadmaps, on the basis of which development strategies and plans for achieving the set goals are developed, are a modern tool of strategic planning, in particular in the field of STI. From the point of view of economic and social management, the technological foresight, as an element of the roadmap, provides the basis for the decision-making process on science and innovation by identifying key long-term prospects for science, technology, innovation and long-term investment in STI. Foresight outlines future priorities for science and innovation, focusing on various aspects of projected change. Prediction is not the same as forecasting. While forecasting tries to predict a single «correct» version of the future, Forsythe uses several alternative plausible futures based on their usefulness to develop sound, forward-looking policies. The object of research of this work is the roadmap of science, technology, innovation (STI), as a tool for strategic planning in the field of STI; subject — foresight research. The main purpose of this work is to study the structure of the STI roadmap and the place of foresight research in it, to develop recommendations for integrating the results of the national technological foresight in the regulatory field of Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the article presents the stages of road map development, outlines the place of Foresight in it, presents a brief methodology and the results of foresight research conducted in Ukraine in 2021. These results represent new priority areas for the development of science, technology, innovation, which will be approved by the Law of Ukraine and the basis of plans for STI contributions to the Development Strategies of various sectors of Ukraine and for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Integration of corporate technological foresight into the technological development management system in companies of oil and gas sector

The experience of leading multinational players in conducting corporate technological foresight shows that the key to its successful implementation is effective integration with the existing corporate strategic planning system. The issue of identifying the most important and necessary measures for integrating foresight into the corporate governance system of oil and gas companies has been considered in the article. The elements of the corporate management system with which it is necessary to build interrelation and description of options for strategies, have been presented, recommendations for conducting foresight for each of them have been given. It has been noted, that the use of foresight research has a significant impact on the effectiveness of individual projects and on the efficiency of companies' activity as a whole. The results obtained have showed that the effectiveness of the results of foresight directly depends on the company’s readiness to conduct it and the level of maturity of scientific and technical processes of innovative development of the company. The directions of the company’s management system, that have a particularly strong impact on the effectiveness of the results of foresight research have been highlighted, as well as methods for assessing the company’s readiness to conduct foresight have been proposed. An assessment of the options for applying foresight research depending on the company’s chosen model of innovative development and innovative development program has been given. It has been noted, that the greatest effect is achieved with a proactive management model that allows you to fully use the tools of foresight research, resulting forecasts. Using foresight for active and passive models doesn't give any advantages for the company, it leads to additional costs. The relationship between foresight and the most common organizational management structures, currently used in Russian oil and gas companies, has been shown.

Labor market of the Sverdlovsk region: current state and prospects

The article is devoted to assessing the current state of the labor market in the Sverdlovsk region and its development prospects with the account of the situation in the regional economy. It provides analysis of the regional labor market from 2009 to the present and evaluation of the probable changes in its separate characteristics until 2023. The current problems of the labor market are highlighted. There are outlined the primary tasks that should be solved by the state authorities, municipalities, educational organizations and employers to ensure adequate conditions for effective functioning of the labor market. In order to assess the situation on the labor market a SWOT analysis was carried out, which was based on the results of rapid foresight “Employment in the Urals region”. The analysis showed that in the region there is still a shortage of qualified personnel in more than 70 occupations and specialties, the existing system of vocational education does not fully meet the needs of enterprises for skilled workers and specialists, that aggravates the problems of employment of graduates of educational institutions. Personnel provision of the economy of the Sverdlovsk region is worsened by the territorial imbalance of labor resources and the concentration of demand and supply of labor in certain localities. The directions for minimizing the problems in the region’s labor market in the medium term are proposed. They are related to bringing the educational services market in line with the current and future needs of the regional labor market, developing the materal and technical base of professional educational organizations in the Sverdlovsk region, and raising the efficiency of vocational guidance for young people. There are also formulated recommendations for development of dual education in the region, which will increase the efficiency of training on the order of employers.

Opening up Corporate Foresight: What Can We Learn from Open and User Innovation?

Organizations find themselves in a fast-paced and increasingly complex and uncertain environment. Hence, they engage in foresight to understand weak signals and developments that may affect them in the medium to long run and build up "strategic preparedness". Literature on open and user innovation has described methods to tap into external knowledge sources and some have potential to enhance foresight results, but research has not yet fully benefitted from these insights. Thus, the aim of this article is to synthesize findings from both literatures and explain why users and user collectives are a valuable knowledge source for foresight. The contributions of the paper are twofold. First, the paper provides a typology of methods, which are suitable for drawing on user knowledge. Second, the identified methods are compared with regard to their advantages, disadvantages and boundary conditions.

Opening up Corporate Foresight: What Can We Learn from Open and User Innovation?

Organizations find themselves in a fast-paced and increasingly complex and uncertain environment. Hence, they engage in foresight to understand weak signals and developments that may affect them in the medium to long run and build up "strategic preparedness". Literature on open and user innovation has described methods to tap into external knowledge sources and some have potential to enhance foresight results, but research has not yet fully benefitted from these insights. Thus, the aim of this article is to synthesize findings from both literatures and explain why users and user collectives are a valuable knowledge source for foresight. The contributions of the paper are twofold. First, the paper provides a typology of methods, which are suitable for drawing on user knowledge. Second, the identified methods are compared with regard to their advantages, disadvantages and boundary conditions.

Sustainable development of education: mutual links of technology and pedagogy

The purpose of the paper is to compare the development trends of information and communication environment, the global educational space and pedagogical ideas, which directly or indirectly affect the application of ICT in education. The study has been based on the foresight results and the content of the Internet publications on the prospects for sustainable development of education in the context of UNESCO Incheon Declaration for Education 2030. The content analysis of pedagogical publications has demonstrated that the current understanding of knowledge appeals to its socialization and dissemination in the global network environment, whose technological basis is rapidly growing. The educational process in the Learning Society is regarded as a distributed one among some formal education establishments (“universities of the world for one”) and the community of content curators. The function of content curators is to deliver comments, generalize and promote new information that supports learning needs of different global network users. The relation model of the subjects of the informational and educational space has been described. The model includes lecturers and learners as well as the content curators. The necessity of humanitarian potential development in the informational and communicational environment has been argued as well as the development of a creative class of people who share their existential experience, knowledge and wisdom. The development of every society member in the robot-based artificial intelligence environment has been considered to be defective without any interpersonal interaction and learners’ activity in the online community. Thus, the psychological and pedagogical theories of connectionism, social learning, multiple intelligences, and some others are to be recognized in the development of hardware and software base for education technologies.

Technology foresight in asset intensive industries: The case of Russian shipbuilding

Developing competitive national shipbuilding industries is a strategic priority for many countries. Shipbuilding has evolved into a high tech industry over the last few decades that is strongly driven by customer needs and wishes. Consequently economic development of the industry is now far more complex than previously.International competition in the shipbuilding industry is very strong in all segments of the industry. The article assesses the future development of the shipbuilding industry globally and evaluates the position and opportunities for Russian shipbuilding. International experience of estimating industries' future development shows that a necessary condition of success is building a vision of the industry's long-term future in the context of social and economic development. One way to create such a long-term vision is through developing scenarios based on factors including wild card events, global challenges, trends, threats, drivers, barriers, and limitations.One of the most effective approaches to enhance competitiveness of the industry is Technology Foresight. The paper presents results of Foresight for civil shipbuilding in Russia on the basis of benchmarking, expert procedures and scenario analysis. It demonstrates how Technology Foresight was adjusted to the special conditions of Russia as an emerging country and how the special features of strategic industries which are in the national interest of countries can be included in Technology Foresight studies. Finally the article derives strategies for policy making to set priorities for revitalizing the industry.

A portfolio analysis methodology to inform innovation policy and foresight

This paper describes a new method for combining innovation foresight, country's innovation indices, and decision analysis to identify the best combination of investments to improve national innovation systems, using Brazil as the example. The sub-pillars for human factors for innovation of the Global Innovation Index (GII) (Cornell University, INSEAD, and WIPO, 2014) are used to develop a gap coverage matrix that is analysed using the Portman method (Chow et al., 2011), to enable the identification of an optimum portfolio of investments, taking into account the level of funding for each program and any interrelationships between them. The methodology could either be refined through a foresight exercise or provide inputs to a foresight study for innovation policy that would generate threshold values for the gaps and describe their relative importance. The latter could provide an explicit and quantitative guide to decision-makers in the implementation of the foresight results. The implications of the method for FTA practice are discussed.

Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in foresight exercises: how to communicate derived results? Design/methodology/approach – By drawing on an empirical study, this paper presents a framework for using visualizations in foresight and illustrates its application by referring to a case study. Findings – The argument is made that by using a dimensional framework, the effects of visualization can be leveraged for communicating foresight results and creating stronger buy-in. Originality/value – Although visualizations appear to be a central means of communication and engagement, little is known in the context of foresight on the functions and dimension of visualizations.

Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation

Technology foresight is usually conducted by government or industry associations and can serve to provide companies with information on critical technologies that a country or industry intends to develop in the next ten to twenty years. For individual companies to benefit from foresight results and transform them into specific technology development plans, the relationships between the desired technologies and the dynamic business environment need to be understood. In this article, an innovation diffusion model implemented via system dynamics simulation is used to operationalize the link between foresight and planning. It helps company decision makers visualize the diffusion process of the innovation inhabiting the chosen technology and determine the critical parameters quantitatively through experiments and analysis. Using these results, possible paths leading to the desired future of the chosen technology can be generated and plans be prepared to guide the effective development of the technology, essential infrastructure, and key applications. An example is presented at the end to illustrate the application of the proposed method that helps a Chinese service carrier to plan for its 4G wireless communication network expansion.

FTA supporting effective priority setting in multi-lateral research programme cooperation: The case of EU–Russia S&T cooperation

Common global societal challenges require common answers, also in programming research to help offer those answers. This paper addresses the issue of priority setting for research programming in a multi-layered and multilateral context, taking into account the interests of diverse stakeholder groups. It uses a structured FTA approach to offer guidance for the design of foresight exercises supporting such priority setting, drawing on the case of S&T cooperation between EU Member States, countries associated to the FP7, and Russia. A framework is proposed for thematic priority setting through the application of Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) and for achieving clear policy impacts by including principles for impact optimisation. A combination of foresight methodologies such as expert workshops, a Delphi survey, roadmapping elements, and prioritisation techniques was applied to select relevant topics for a joint research call. The paper shows how foresight can be embedded in a multilateral S&T programme cooperation using a set of coordination dimensions and design principles. Strategies for achieving policy impact and for communicating foresight results are also outlined. Future research is proposed to further improve guidance to facilitate more global research programme cooperation in the future to jointly address global challenges.

Долгосрочные тренды развития сектора информационно-коммуникационных технологий

Гиглавый Александр Владимирович - заместитель директора по науке, Лицей № 1533 (информационных технологий) г. Москвы. Адрес: 119296, Москва, Ломоносовский проспект, 16. E-mail: giglavy@yandex.ru Соколов Александр Васильевич - заместитель директора, директор Международного научно-образовательного Форсайт-центра ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ. Адрес: Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», 101000, Москва, Мясницкая ул., 20. E-mail: sokolov@hse.ruАбдрахманова Гульнара Ибрагимовна - директор Центра статистики и мониторинга информационного общества ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ. Адрес: Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», 101000, Москва, Мясницкая ул., 20. E-mail: gabdrakhmanova@hse.ruЧулок Александр Александрович - заведующий отделом научно-технического прогнозирования ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ. Адрес: Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», 101000, Москва, Мясницкая ул., 20. E-mail: achulok@hse.ruБуров Василий Владимирович - председатель совета директоров, WikiVote! Адрес: 125047, Москва, ул. Фадеева, 7, стр.1, оф. 2. E-mail: burov@wikivote.ruТрансформационные эффекты, оказываемые информационно-коммуникацион­ными технологиями (ИКТ) на развитие различных сфер деятельности, привлекают пристальное внимание исследователей. Вместе с тем динамика этого сектора напрямую зависит от глобальных вызовов и трендов более широкого характера, определяющих долгосрочные приоритеты науки и технологий.Какие факторы окажут воздействие на будущее индустрии ИКТ? Какие технологические решения определят ее облик в последующие 15-20 лет? На эти и подобные вопросы попытались ответить специалисты ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ при реализации комплекса исследований общемировых и национальных тенденций научно-технологического развития. Aнализировались социально-экономические и научно-технологические вызо­вы, касающиеся сферы ИКТ, перспективные направления исследований и разработок, рынки инновационных продуктов и услуг; оценивались «окна возможностей» для России. В итоге были выявлены стратегические направления задельных исследований, создающие основу для производства в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе (за пределами 2020 г.) инновационных продуктов и формирования на этой основе новых рынков. Результаты прогноза прошли экспертную валидацию представителями ведущих компаний, научных центров, университетов и международных организаций.Среди решений, ожидаемых в период до 2030 г., - прототипы систем, реализующих новые принципы организации вычислений, и мультиязычных программ извлечения и формализации знаний; технологии для работы с гигантскими массивами данных; новые аналитические инструменты (персональные аналитические системы, средства обработки данных, поступающих в режиме реального времени, мобильной аналитики и др.). Бурный рост рынков для этих разработок прогнозируется в здравоохранении, энергетике, машиностроении и на транспорте, а также в сфере персонального потребления ИКТ-продуктов и услуг.Проведенный анализ позволяет заключить, что в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе ИКТ-индустрия сохранит высокие темпы динамики, окажет трансформирующее воздействие практически на все сферы жизни общества. Жизненный цикл технологий, соответствующих продуктов и услуг будет только сокращаться. В этих условиях новые исследования и разработки станут ключевым фактором поддержки конкурентоспособности. Во многих рассматриваемых направлениях российская наука обладает определенными заделами, что, однако, не позволяет рассчитывать на мировое лидерство. Исключение составляют телекоммуникационные технологии (передачи информации, организации сетей и распространения контента), где уровень исследований можно считать прорывным.

Foresight of evolving security threats posed by emerging technologies

Purpose – Many emerging technologies are being developed in an accelerating pace and are key drivers of future change. In foresight studies, usually their positive impact on the quality of life is considered or their negative environmental effects. This paper seeks to draw attention to an overlooked “dark side” of new technologies: their potential abuse by terrorists or organized crime. Recent cybercrime events are examples of abuse that perhaps could have been minimized if appropriate foresight studies were performed years ago. This was the aim of the recently completed EU-funded project FESTOS. Design/methodology/approach – Several foresight methodologies were employed. Following a horizon scanning for potentially threatening technologies, a Delphi-type expert survey helped to evaluate critical threat characteristics of selected 33 technologies: the likelihood that each technology will actually come to pose a security threat (in different time frames), the easiness of its malicious use, the severity of the threat, and the most threatened societal spheres. Findings – The results enabled ranking the technologies by their “abuse potential” and “threat intensity”. Certain emerging technologies (or their combinations), regarded as “weak signals”, inspired ideas for potential “wild cards”. In a subsequent workshop, which employed a variant of the “futures wheel” method, four wild-card “scenario sketches” were constructed. These were later developed to full narrative scenarios. Originality/value – The entire process enables the introduction of security foresight into policy planning in a long-range perspective. The foresight results were followed by the evaluation of policy implications and coping with the knowledge control dilemma. The paper illustrates how a mix of foresight methods can help in a continuous analysis of new and threats posed by emerging technologies, thus raising awareness of decision makers and mitigating the risk of unforeseen surprises.

Strategic dialogues for research policy making in Germany

PurposeThe mere generation of foresight results is not sufficient in itself to influence research policy. Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning. Therefore, deriving the maximum benefit from foresight activities requires a carefully designed and actively driven transfer process of foresight results into research policy making. This paper aims to present such a process (“strategic dialogue”) and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe authors compare strategic dialogues with existing dialogue instruments and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making. They capture the lessons learnt from such dialogues in a seven‐step process that can be adapted to specific situations. Specific success factors are identified and linked to the process.FindingsStrategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as foresight into research policy making. They ensure that foresight results are processed into a form that is directly useful as an input for policy development. They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.Originality/valueThe transfer of foresight results into research policy making has not featured prominently so far in discussions of foresight efforts and methods. However, it is a crucial element in ensuring that such activities have maximum impact.

The genetic program of the structural evolution of electric motors with a rolling rotor

The genetic program of functional class of electric motors is first defined and deciphered with a rolling rotor. An element base is defined and genetically possible amount of Class Types are specified. The results of genetic foresight are generalized. Accordance of the real evolution of Types is experimentally confirmed with their genetic program. Directions of further researches are determined.

Идентификация перспективных коллаборативных сетей в международных научных программах

Ville Brummer- Research Fellow, Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). E-mail: ville.brummer@tkk.fi Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandJuuso Liesio- Research Fellow, Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). E-mail: juuso.liesio@tkk.fi Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandJuuso Nissinen- Financial Analyst, Depfa Bank Plc. (Finland). E-mail: juuso.nissinen@depfa.com Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandAhti Salo- Professor, Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). E-mail: ahti.salo@tkk.fi Address: Systems Analysis Laboratory, Aalto University, P.O. box 11100 00076, Aalto, FinlandInternational partnership plays an increasingly important role in the performance of innovation systems. Despite the consensus on the benefits of international cooperation and the adoption of a number of influential policies, systemic ways of joint identification of the thematic priorities and collaborative networks and activities in R&D programmes are underdeveloped. At the global level, the formation of policy is complicated by the need to account for numerous horizontal and vertical linkages, both within as well as between innovation systems. As the number of prospective stakeholder groups grows, the diversity of the objectives and strategies that they pursue grows too, implying that it becomes increasingly difficult to synchronize them.Aiming to close the gap authors developed a methodology for robust portfolio modeling of networks (RPM-Networking) that allows identifying the thematic priorities and shaping long-term collaborative networks within national and international programmes. The basic criterion for evaluating potential networks is their viability. The proposed approach is based on portfolio analysis - robust portfolio modeling (RPM) - which allows taking into account resource-related and other constraints when identifying thematic priorities for R&D and shaping related networks. Building collaborative networks should be consistent with the definition of thematic priorities. RPM-Networking allows synthesizing these processes.Methodologically RPM-Networking presumes an integral estimate of thematic priorities and collaborative networks thus facilitating the identification of thematic priorities and the establishment of new networks basing on multi-criteria analysis of research topics to evaluate the degree of interest of potential participants.The paper considers the capacities of the method as exemplified by the processing of the data set derived from joint consultations under the project WoodWisdom-Net. It covers 18 partners from eight countries and seeks to advance networking and integration of national programmes in wood material science and engineering. Experience of applying the methodology has proved its effectiveness and viability.The authors conclude that the creation of new collaborative research networks should be central to the establishment of international programs where networking is hindered by a wide variety of cultural characteristics and organizational practices. In addition applying a systemic methodology allows achieving other desired parameters such as enhanced governance, determining the exact amount of funding for projects, thus reducing the risks, and identifying the target group of scientists which are interested in related topics in terms of complementarities and interdisciplinary approaches. Further it is possible to optimally implement the results of Foresight in practice. In particular it appears that the successful mobilization of the scientific community, submission of a quite wide range of topics for evaluation and their high scores are critical prerequisites for successful application of RPM-Networking.

Measuring the Value Contribution of Corporate Foresight

Managing uncertainty coming from environmental change is one of the challenges in innovation management. Companies are increasingly facing this challenge with means of corporate foresight. Integrating the gained insights into decision-making processes is believed to contribute to the success of an organization. A big barrier for the integration of foresight results though is how these results are valued – a matter of corporate culture, but also of cost-value ratio. Foresight activities can be costly and their budget has to be justified by creating a higher benefit. Only few approaches in how to measure the contribution of corporate foresight are discussed in today’s literature. Such approaches are needed though for both, guaranteeing an adequate budget for corporate foresight as well as ensuring the usage of foresight results. This paper gives an introduction to corporate foresight and discusses possible approaches of value measurement on the example of technology foresight at telecommunication provider Deutsche Telekom.

Axes of balance in foresight – reflections from FinnSight 20151

In 2005, the Finnish Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies – the Academy of Finland and the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) – to carry out FinnSight 2015, a joint foresight exercise that would provide inputs to this strategy, foster collaboration between these funding agencies and promote foresight and innovation activities at large. Towards these objectives, FinnSight 2015 engaged 10 expert panels which identified key driving forces and characterised focus areas of competences by making extensive use of Internet-based tools and by engaging in intensive deliberations at facilitated workshops. We also describe the policy context and methodological support of FinnSight: specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and what policy developments have taken place after to the publication of foresight results, in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.

Improving the business impact of foresight

Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a ‘trend map’ which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends – to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.