Election Results Research Articles

Mafia and Political Competition Redirecting Votes not Discouraging Candidates

ABSTRACTThe efforts of organized crime to affect the outcome of elections have been well documented. In the present paper, we exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991, an anticrime measure that mandates dissolution of the city council in the case of suspected mafia infiltration, to show that political competition in municipal elections in Italy, measured by the win margin between the two “strongest” candidates and the Herfindahl index, increases sharply in the first election following a compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of municipalities that have never been subject to council dissolution. We find that this effect of the anti‐mafia policy remains slightly significant up to the third election after dissolution, after which time it disappears. The paper suggests that mafias manipulate electoral outcomes principally by affecting voter behaviour, rather than by discouraging unfriendly candidates. We investigate several channels that might be driving these results.

Reverse symbolic action and quiescence: a critical exploration of anti-abortion rhetoric and movement activation

Abstract Following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision, the pro-choice movement had a clear spike in motivation and action. The Republican Party hosted a celebratory news conference following the decision, but rather than activating their own base they witnessed an unintentional activation of their opposing base. This article proposes a theory of reverse symbolic action which explores the possibility that extreme anti-abortion rhetoric caused the pro-life movement to fall into dormancy while causing the pro-choice movement to activate. Drawing on social judgment theory and politics as symbolic action, reverse symbolic action has three dimensions: policy action producing quiescence, rhetorical overreach, and unintentional activation of the oppositional base. A case study applies this new theoretical lens to the House Republican news conference held immediately after the announcement of Dobbs. Public responses are explored through analysis of Twitter activity following the conference and the 2022 midterm election results.

Multinational Democratic Federations: Comparing India with Multi-level Systems from the Global North

In this article, we compare the Indian experience with that of some of the multinational and multi-level polities from the Global North, namely Belgium, Canada, Spain and the United Kingdom. We first summarize the essence of multinationalism. Drawing from our comparative examples of the Global North we then show how dominant narratives of state nationalism condition the extent to which the state can accommodate plurinational difference through self-rule, shared rule and ethno-symbolic recognition within these states, and then compare and contrast this with the Indian experience. Despite the stickiness of elite narratives on the meaning of the state during state formation and democratization, we highlight the ability of electoral competition to push multi-level politics into a more accommodative or majoritarian direction. We illustrate this with reference to India including the 2024 General Election Outcome.

Using Candidates’ Tweets to Predict an Election Outcome

Using Candidates’ Tweets to Predict an Election Outcome

A System for the Analysis of Historical Electoral Results of the National Electoral Institute of Mexico

This paper presents a computer system capable of analyzing the databases of the results of the elections in Mexico, using genetic algorithms to achieve efficient analyses that will serve for the creation of reports with the information generated, in a shorter time than it can take to perform a manual analysis. The developed system implements the Windows Forms environment with the C# programming language and the SQL Server relational database system. In this research, the variables related to the execution time in the generation of reports will be measured, with respect to the traditional method, in addition to collecting relevant information that the system shows through experimentation.

Who, Republican or Democrat CEOs, laughs last? Political cycles in the market for corporate directors

This paper examines the relationship between CEOs' political preferences and their post-retirement directorship opportunities, proposing that political donations may serve as signals of political influence or connections that impact career prospects in the market for corporate directors. Using data on political contributions from 1998 to 2016, we explore whether CEOs' political affiliations create a cyclical pattern in the professional labor market, favoring those aligned with the ruling party. Our analysis reveals that Republican partisan CEOs are more successful in securing directorships under Republican regimes (George Walker Bush, 2003∼2008), while the reverse holds under Democratic regimes (Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. 2009∼2014). These results remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity using presidential election outcomes as an instrumental variable.

Dismantling Discrimination: Breaking Down Systemic Inequities in Our Communities and Workplaces

This article explores the author's emotional reaction and reflections following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, in which an incumbent candidate secured both the electoral college and popular vote. As an educated, upper-middle class, straight, cisgender white man, the author grapples with his own privilege and the implications of the election result for marginalized communities. The piece delves into the concepts of "disparate impact" and "disparate treatment" discrimination, examining how these forms of systemic bias manifest not just in the workplace, but also in public policy and the legislative process, with examples provided across domains such as voting rights, criminal justice, environmental regulations, and education funding. The author outlines alternative policy, legislative, and legal approaches that could help address these complex issues of discrimination and inequality, concluding with a call to self-reflection and an urging of readers to consider their own complicity in perpetuating disparate impacts and to take concrete steps towards dismantling systemic inequities in society.

Emotional aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election: a study of hindsight bias in younger and older adults

ABSTRACT Hindsight bias – also known as the knew-it-all-along effect – is a ubiquitous judgment error affecting decision makers. Hindsight bias has been shown to vary across age groups and as a function of contextual factors, such as the decision maker’s emotional state. Despite theoretical reasons why emotions might have a stronger impact on hindsight bias in older than in younger adults, age differences in hindsight bias for emotional events remain relatively underexplored. We examined emotion and hindsight bias in younger and older adults (N = 272) against the backdrop of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Participants predicted electoral college votes for the two presidential candidates before the election and were asked to remember their predictions approximately three weeks later, after the election results had been finalised. Republicans, for whom the electoral outcome was negatively tinged, exhibited greater hindsight bias for President Biden’s result compared with Democrats, for whom the electoral outcome was positive. The asymmetry in hindsight bias between Republicans and Democrats was similar for younger and older participants. This study suggests that negative emotions may exacerbate hindsight bias, and that adult age differences in hindsight bias observed in laboratory settings may not translate to real-world contexts.

Improving the Security of United States Elections with Robust Optimization

The preservation of democracy hinges on the reality and perception that votes in elections are counted properly. In the paper “Improving the Security of United States Elections with Robust Optimization,” Crimmins, Halderman, and Sturt provide a low-cost approach to reducing the security risks of voting machines that are used to scan ballots and count votes. Their approach consists of applying robust optimization to a century-old testing procedure called logic and accuracy testing (LAT), which is performed by election officials on each voting machine before each election. The authors show that their robust optimization approach is guaranteed to detect any misconfiguration of voting machines that would cause votes to be swapped across candidates. Applying their approach to Michigan’s November 2022 election, the authors show that their approach to LAT would have only required a 1.2% increase in cost to election officials compared with current practice. Their approach, which is forthcoming in the Societal Impact section, has been successfully piloted in real-world elections by the Michigan Bureau of Elections since Summer 2023 as a cost-efficient way to enhance election security and public trust in election outcomes.

United States Precinct Boundaries and Statewide Partisan Election Results

We describe the creation and verification of databases of all precinct boundaries used in the United States 2016, 2018, and 2020 November general elections, enhanced with election results for all partisan statewide offices. United States election officials report election results in the smallest geographic reporting known as the precinct. Scholars and practitioners find these election results valuable for numerous use cases. However, these data cannot be augmented with other geographically-bound data, such as U.S. Census data, without precinct boundaries. Here we describe the collection of precinct boundary data from state and local election officials, sometimes provided in GIS formats, images, text descriptions, and – in rare cases – verbally. We describe how we verify boundaries with other election data, such as geocoded voter registration files. Our open-source data has appeared in redistricting litigation argued before the United States Supreme Court; and has been used by state and local redistricting authorities, media organizations, advocacy groups, scholars, and a vibrant community of mapping enthusiasts.

The Declining Role of Islamic Politics and The Jokowi’s Factors in the 2024 Presidential Election: A Study of Contemporary Political Policies and Dynamics in Indonesia

Research Problem: This abstract discusses the complex challenges faced by Islamic parties in the 2024 presidential election related to Jokowi's role as president. This report focuses on the dynamics of constellation formation between candidates competing in the 2024 presidential election. Research purposes: The main aim of this abstract is to examine the complexity of the problems faced by Islamic parties in the 2024 presidential election. This report aims to explain why Islamic parties cannot unite, but instead try to defeat each other in the election, due to the existence of forces outside of them who are capable of determine political dynamics in a presidential system. Research methods: Methodologically, this abstract refers to a case study of the experience of Islamic parties in contesting the 2024 presidential election in Indonesia. This report uses a qualitative analysis approach to investigate the political dynamics of the 2024 presidential election which also involves the influence of President Jokowi. Results and Discussion: This abstract discusses the challenges faced by political parties in Indonesia, especially Islamic political parties, in the 2024 presidential election which will be held simultaneously with the legislative elections. President Jokowi's influence is important in popularizing political parties that support the presidential candidates he supports, so that it also influences the results of the legislative elections for each Islamic party. Research Implications and Contributions: This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges faced by Islamic parties, both those that already exist and those that are just emerging in the 2024 elections. This report invites further research and discussion regarding important external (influence of the President in power) and internal aspects of Islamic parties. (institutional power and their consolidation).

Exploring the Security Challenges of an E-Voting System (EVS): A Case Study in the Bolgatanga Senior High School

The integration of electronic voting systems (EVS) into electoral processes promises increased efficiency, speed, and transparency. However, this technology also introduces a variety of security challenges that must be addressed to ensure the integrity of the voting process. This study explores the security vulnerabilities of an EVS, focusing on its implementation at Bolgatanga Senior High School (BIGBOSS). Through a case study approach, this research examines the potential threats to the administration of EVS, including issues related to data privacy, system integrity, authentication protocols, and susceptibility to cyber-attacks. A mixed-methods strategy was employed, utilizing surveys, interviews, and system tests to assess both technical vulnerabilities and user experiences. Key findings revealed Potential Voter Manipulation where unauthorized access could allow individuals to cast votes fraudulently; Insider Threats where trusted users exploiting their access could manipulate election outcomes; Weak Authentication; Lack of Robust Verification; Potential Physical Attack where individuals could vandalize machines and Vulnerabilities in Encryption which may expose votes, compromising ballot secrecy. The study recommends the implementation a blockchain-based technology , such as cryptographic techniques, consensus mechanisms, use of biometric verification to ensure the identity of voters as well as the use of digital signatures to verify the authenticity of electronic ballots and ensure that they haven't been altered during transmission, implementation of real-time monitoring of the e-voting system to detect and respond to security threats promptly” and also provide ongoing cybersecurity education and training to election officials, staff, and voters to raise awareness and reduce the risk of human error. These findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on EVS security, providing insights into practical measures for improving the reliability and safety of electronic voting systems in educational institutions and beyond.

Perceived political incivility and trust in government: the moderating roles of election news exposure and favorability of election outcomes*

ABSTRACT While extensive research has shown that political incivility can lead to unfavorable democratic outcomes, our understanding of the dynamics in election campaigns is limited. The current study investigates the effects of perceived political incivility on trust in government by taking into account both informational and motivational factors during elections: the distinct channels through which individuals receive election news (institutional, social media, and messaging applications) and whether the election outcome is (un)favorable to the individual. Drawing from the literatures on online incivility and motivated reasoning, we argue that both election news exposure and favorability of election outcomes could moderate the effects of perceived incivility. We conducted a two-wave panel survey (pre- and post-election) during the 2022 Malaysian General Election (Wave-1 N = 1800; Wave-2 N = 901). We found that increased incivility perceptions over time and unfavorable election results diminished trust in government, and there was evidence that increased exposure to election news from institutional news sources increased trust in government from pre- to post-election. For those who found the election outcome unfavorable, increased social media exposure resulted in a greater loss of trust in the government in response to increased perceptions of incivility during the campaign. These results underscore the importance of both informational (news media) and motivational (favorability of election outcome) factors, as well as their combined effects on individuals’ responses to political incivility during elections.

From the Streets to the Voting Booth: The Electoral Effect of Grassroots Mobilization Against the Far Right

Abstract Is anti-far-right grassroots mobilization effective? Scholars studying the far right have focused extensively on the causes and consequences of far-right success but have paid little attention to what citizens and civil society can do to tackle this phenomenon. Focusing on the surge of Sardine (the Sardines), an anti-far-right social movement, during the 2020 Italian regional elections, we test whether grassroots mobilization is an effective tool to curb far-right parties’ electoral performance. Employing municipality-level data on electoral results, Sardines rallies, and far-right events, we exploit a difference-in-differences design to identify the effect of local exposure to Sardine mobilization on the municipal electoral performance of far-right parties. The results suggest that local exposure to a Sardines event has a strong negative effect on far-right electoral results.

“The Druze vote in Israel: between ideology, socioeconomic status, kinship, and the Nation-State Basic Law”

ABSTRACT This study investigates the determinants of Druze voting behaviour in Israel, focusing on three theoretical frameworks: ideological, socioeconomic, and kinship theories. Analysing electoral data from 2003 to 2022, the study examines trends in voter turnout and party preferences among the Druze community. Findings reveal a complex interplay of factors influencing Druze political choices. The ideological theory suggests that shifts in political ideology, particularly in response to legislative changes such as the 2018 Nation-State Basic Law, impact Druze voting patterns. Conversely, the socioeconomic theory posits that local economic conditions, education levels, and population demographics shape voting behaviour. Furthermore, the kinship theory highlights the significance of community ties and descriptive representation in guiding political allegiances. Through statistical analysis, the study identifies kinship ties, specifically the inclusion of Druze candidates within political parties, as the most significant predictor of Druze voter support. This suggests that community representation holds considerable sway over Druze political choices, transcending the influence of ideology and socioeconomic factors. In conclusion, while all three theories offer valuable insights, the dominance of the kinship theory underscores the importance of identity and descriptive representation in shaping Druze electoral outcomes in Israel.

Narrow Margins and Misinformation: The Impact of Sharing Fake News in Close Contests

This study investigates the impact of candidates disseminating fake news on voter behavior and electoral outcomes in highly competitive, partisan races. While the effects of fake news on electoral outcomes have been studied, research has yet to examine the impact of candidates’ strategic use of fake news in elections where it may have the greatest impact—close races. This research explores whether the use of fake news influences voter support, particularly among independent voters, in tightly contested elections. Through a conjoint survey experiment involving participants from Amazon MTurk, this study analyzes how variables such as race competitiveness, perceived risk of alienating independents, and the presence of partisan labels affect voter responses to candidates who spread misinformation. The findings indicate that while the competitiveness of a race does not significantly enhance support for candidates sharing fake news, the presence of partisan labels does. These results suggest that voter behavior in response to fake news is more closely tied to partisan identity than to strategic electoral considerations. This study highlights the complex dynamics of misinformation in electoral contexts and its implications for democratic processes.

Using Improved Two-Source Capture-Recapture Methods In Settling Disputed Election Results

Introduction of new technology to check rigging and manipulation of election results by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) raised hopes and dreams of many Nigerians, especially the new electorates, that the 2023 general election in Nigeria would be free and fair. Cross-checking INEC declared election results using this recapture model is supposed go beyond questionnaires. Sampling technique to select polling units where re-run election is to take place is necessary. They have been issues of vote suppression, rigging, manipulation or intimation in those areas would have largely been reduced. The new estimator has shown that there were no serious cases of vote suppression, manipulation or intimation by any political party, as far as this Local Government Area is concerned. If there were vote suppression, it is only about 1.78% which is negligible. Using simulated data, we found that efficient recapture model (Me) provides better and more reliable estimate than the conventional models.

The Stability of Party Power in Turkey after President Erdogan's Victory in the 2023 Elections

The present research aims to identify the impact of Erdogan's victory on the basic budgets in Turkey and its impact on the opposition parties and the strength of the opposition, as well as on the Turkish economy, as the economic factor played a significant and influential role in the results of the Turkish elections, which led to the rise of the Justice and Development Party with Erdogan's victory. This party has an effect on the political and democratic process in the country. Thus, the investigation includes two axes: the first, political parties in Turkey, and the second, the Turkish elections in 2023 AD.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

How elections shape perceptions of ideal leadership.

Individuals hold internal leadership representations, termed leadership prototypes. We examined how these prototypes changed in reaction to the 2020 U.S. presidential election. A sample of Republicans (N = 200), Democrats (N = 200), and individuals who identified with neither major party (N = 200), surveyed eight times between October 2020 and January 2021, and reported their perceptions of the characteristics of the ideal leader. Results from a regression discontinuity in time and repeated measurement analyses found that the election altered two dimensions of the average U.S. leadership prototype. We specifically find participants' perceptions of Tyranny and Masculinity to decrease, that is, shifts to more Biden-like and less Trump-like leadership prototypes. Other dimensions of the leadership prototype remained stable, that is, charisma, sensitivity, dedication, intelligence, and dynamism. Analyses examined two boundary conditions of the effect: political identification and the acceptance of the election result as legitimate. Only perceived legitimacy was found to moderate the effect with the shift in leadership prototypes being driven by individuals who accepted the result of the election as legitimate. Our findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of leadership prototypes in response to real-world events and more broadly how an election can shape psychological perceptions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).