Election Results Research Articles

Toward an assessment of the relevance of proposed public policy in contemporary African society: A retrospective review of Kenya's now‐defunct building bridges initiative, with special reference to post‐election violence

AbstractWhereas competing interests characterize the African public policy sphere today, the lens of mass‐elite differences has hardly been employed to study electoral violence. Accordingly, this article juxtaposes the lived experiences of ordinary Kenyan citizens, obtained through focus groups, with the content of the now‐defunct Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), a comprehensive set of public policy changes proposed by Kenya's political protagonists Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga in 2017. It poses the following broad question: did the BBI proposals truly intersect with the opinions and lived experiences of the masses? I find that various factors, including the lack of electoral and judicial integrity, and a winner‐takes‐all democratic system, are responsible for post‐election violence according to citizens. A comparative analysis of citizen perspectives and the BBI Report reveals considerable congruence in the understanding of the causes of post‐election violence. The study partly concludes that African leaders should continue to engage in policy entrepreneurship.Related ArticlesHodzi, Obert. 2020. “African Political Elites and the Making(s) of the China Model in Africa.” Politics & Policy 48(5): 887–987. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12380.Kouladoum, Jean‐Claude. 2023. “The Role of Freedom of Communication in Modulating the Effect of Political Participation on Electoral Outcome in Africa.” Politics & Policy 51(4): 588–613. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12539.Onyango, Gedion. 2024. “DHR‐PA—Democracy and Human Rights in Public Administration in Africa.” Politics & Policy 52(2): 426–49. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12584.

Economic Impact of United States Presidential Election Years: A Comparative Analysis

The United States Presidential elections are held every four years, and they bring a time of economic uncertainty that raises many questions domestically and internationally. In this essay, the relationship between the economy and the presidential election years will be analyzed. Some of those include changes in the investment markets like stocks and real estate, the expectation of the president's policies and how they will affect the economy, what the consumers should expect, how each presidential candidate (Donald Trump and Kamala Harris) has different policies, and how those policies will affect the economy of the US and internationally. By looking at stats from past elections and trends, the confusing connection between the economy and the years that have a presidential election can be further understood, showing how the outcome of United States presidential elections impacts the growth and the power of the economy.

The Impact of the 2022 Electoral Reform on the Credibility of the 2023 General Elections in Nigeria

Over the years, Nigeria has faced serious election fraud, leading many Nigerians to lose confidence in the electoral process. In 2022, the new Electoral Act was introduced, creating more opportunities for the integration of technologies like BVAS and IREV to improve voter accreditation, result transmission, and real-time election viewership for all stakeholders. This development was welcomed by many Nigerians who hoped the Act would restore voter confidence in the country. However, the outcome of the elections, particularly the presidential elections, indicated that the Act failed to meet the expectations of Nigerians. This study therefore examined the Electoral Act 2022 and the election credibility of the 2023 elections. It explored why the Act failed to mitigate insecurity and ensure effective transmission and viewing of election results, which are key to free and fair elections. Using a mixed research approach to data collection and analysis, the study drew on direct responses from voters and stakeholders, scholarly literature, media reports, and findings from election observer groups. The results indicate that while the Act provides a legal framework for stronger elections in Nigeria, it has not sufficiently ensured a free and fair election in the presidential polls. The study concludes that the Act alone cannot guarantee transparent elections due to poor implementation by stakeholders and certain grey areas in the Act that were exploited for election manipulation. The researcher recommends revisiting or strengthening these grey areas to prevent manipulation by elites and ensuring effective implementation by all stakeholders. Specifically, the study suggests the integration of technological advancements, such as blockchain for secure voting, electronic voting systems to enhance accessibility, geospatial technology for better logistics management, and secure mobile applications for real-time results transmission, to further bolster election credibility and transparency in Nigeria.

The Costs of Voting and Voter Confidence

We revisit the effect of ballot access laws on voter confidence in the outcome of elections. Previous research found weak or no relationship between voter confidence and election laws regulating ballot access. We argue this non-finding is conditioned by partisanship. Democrats and Republicans view election laws through a partisan lens, which is especially triggered when coalitions lose. Republican voters see ballot restrictions as a means of securing the vote against fraud; Democratic voters see ballot restrictions as voter suppression. We maintain that the conditional partisan effect that election laws have on voter confidence is triggered or attenuated when partisans’ candidates lose elections. We find that in states where ballot access is costly, voter confidence among partisans and supporters of the losing Presidential candidate is significantly higher for Republicans and significantly lower for Democrats than their counterparts in states with less costly ballot access laws. These effects are greater for Republican than Democrats. We discuss the implications of our findings on election ecosystems and voter confidence.

Measuring the Contribution of Voting Blocs to Election Outcomes

Measuring the Contribution of Voting Blocs to Election Outcomes

Implementing ADR for Election Result Disputes Among Party Candidates in the Indonesian House

Implementing ADR for Election Result Disputes Among Party Candidates in the Indonesian House

Economic insecurity in the 2022 Italian general election: mobilization or withdrawal?

A right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerged as the clear winner of the 2022 Italian general election, with voter turnout reaching its lowest level in the history of the Italian Republic. This result unfolded amidst a long-standing sense of economic stagnation, escalating inequality, and rising inflation. The article explores the relationship between individual economic insecurity and the 2022 election results. There is an assumption in both public and scholarly discourse that economic insecurity is responsible for the rise of populist and, particularly, populist radical-right (PRR) parties. Does the 2022 Italian general election represent a case of mobilization or withdrawal of the economically insecure electorate? Building on the literature on populist success and the economy’s effects on political behavior, we find that economic insecurity was not behind the success of the PRR parties (the League and FdI) in the 2022 election. It was also not associated with the vote for the main populist non-radical-right party in the Italian political landscape: the 5-Star Movement. On the contrary, in this election, economic insecurity mostly deterred voters from casting their ballots, and the success of the PRR can mostly be explained by anti-immigration attitudes.

Introducing the Democratic Electoral Systems data, 1919-1945

This data note introduces an update to the widely-used Democratic Electoral Systems (DES) data that encompasses the period from 1919 to 1945. The data include 243 legislative lower house and presidential elections in 34 interwar democracies. Information on these elections falls into four categories: first and foremost, DES contains variables that capture the institutional rules that define how elections are organized. Second, the data captures the consequences of electoral rules in the form of summary statistics of electoral outcomes. Third, we include democracy classifications for four major democracy datasets so that users can choose their preferred democracy definition when working with the data. Finally, the DES dataset contains multiple identification variables that allow linking the DES data to a wide variety of other datasets. This update to the DES data is fully compatible with prior releases for the post-war period 1–3 .

The Impact of Social Media on Political Mobilization in Nigeria: A Case Study of the Obidient Movement

This study demonstrates how the social media can be used for political mobilization, using the obidient movement as a case study. The emergence of the Obidient Movement in Nigeria has been intimately associated with the way in which the development of social media platforms has revolutionised political communication. This article looks at how social media affects political mobilisation in Nigeria, with a particular emphasis on the remarkable role that technology-driven communication played in the Obidient Movement’s success. The conventional boundaries of political campaigning have been rewritten with the rise of social media, giving non-traditional influencers, grassroots activism, and digital activism a greater chance to shape political discourse and election outcomes. The study employed the Uses and Gratification theory, to deduce how citizens were mobilized via social media to join the obidient movement. To achieve this, the study relied on qualitative research method that examines and synthesizes extant literature on political mobilization and the particular relevant literature on social media and political mobilization. The outcome of the study shows that despite the proliferation of fake news and misinformation on social media, it served as a tool for political mobilization for the obidient movement, as obidients used social media to form alliances, crowdfund, mobilse political support and interact with a wider audience. By exploring the pivotal role of social media in the recent Nigerian election, this article illuminates the transformative potential of these platforms in reshaping political mobilization and generating support for previously underrepresented political forces in the nation.

The geography of partisan homophily in the 2020 US presidential election

Partisan segregation in the United States is often interpreted as evidence of limited social interaction among out-partisans, or partisan homophily. In this paper, I draw on 2020 US presidential election results and data on the pairwise density of social ties between the populations of 22,537 zip code tabulation areas (ZCTA) to examine how different areas are socially connected to politically similar others. Using the local Moran index, I first identify clusters of ZCTAs where there is evidence of partisan homophily or heterophily. In a series of multinomial logistic regressions, I then also examine differences in the probability of each cluster across different settlement types and regions, and across areas with differences in the relative connectedness and geographic distance to others. I find that partisan homophily is the norm across areas, broadly tracking partisan segregation along the urban-rural continuum. However, the populations of Democratic-leaning areas, which are most likely to be in cities and suburbs, are on average likely to have more of their co-partisan social ties in relatively distant areas when compared to the populations of Republican-leaning areas. This highlights the prospect of partisan differences in the role of non-local context in local political outcomes.

Campaign Strategy for the Election of Bojongmalaka Village Head, Baleendah District, Bandung Regency in 2022

This study aims to analyze the campaign strategies implemented in the village head election of Bojongmalaka, Baleendah District, Bandung Regency, in 2022. The village head election is a democratic process that involves active community participation in choosing local leaders who will influence village development. This study uses a qualitative approach with a case study method, involving in-depth interviews with candidates, campaign teams, and local residents, as well as analysis of campaign-related documents. The results of the study indicate that an effective campaign strategy includes several key elements, including good candidate introduction, optimal use of social media, a personal approach through direct visits to residents' homes, and delivery of work programs that are relevant to the needs of the village community. Factors such as candidate popularity, support from community leaders, and mass mobilization also play a significant role in determining election results. These findings provide insight into local political dynamics and can be a guide for candidates in similar elections in the future.

THE OPPOSING FORCES IN THE CIVIL WAR AND THE POLITICAL MOOD OF THE CITIZENS (BASED ON THE MATERIAL OF BASHKIRIA)

One of the most important factors in the political struggle is the position of the citizens. In this article, we will try to consider the political sentiments of the citizens based on the material of Bashkiria during one of the turning points in Russian history during the civil war. The territory of our region was the scene of fierce military and political confrontation between the Bolsheviks and a wide range of their opponents: from those who were called the members of «democratic counterrevolution" in the historiography of the Soviet period to more right-wing forces. A number of sources provide valuable and objective material on the political proclivity of the citizens during the civil war. These are the results of elections at various levels, the position of elected authorities, the documents characterizing the attitude of the citizens to the mobilization and voluntary entry into the army of opposing forces, the documents from the category "internal distribution only”. The scientific novelty of the article is due to the lack of special works on this problem. However, we have taken into account the works devoted to the civil war as a whole or its individual aspects in Russia and Bashkiria. As the goals of our research, we can see the identification of documents containing objective information about the political sentiments of the population and the formulation of conclusions regarding the support of the citizens of the opposing forces. In summary, we conclude that there is no mass and constant support from all the opposing forces and indicate the reasons for the indifference of the citizens.

Enhancing Electoral Integrity: Implementation of a Secure E-Voting Platform

This paper proposes the design and implementation of a secured e-voting system intended to innovate the electoral process, thereby improving voters' Technologies: I.INTRODUCTION participation in elections. Traditional methods of voting have a number of drawbacks regarding logistics inefficiency, accessibility to voters, and security issues. The proposed e-voting system will help solve these problems by offering a digital platform that will ensure secured, efficient, and accessible voting. The system has been developed in Java, JSP, and MySQL; it has a highly user- friendly interface, a robust backend processing system, and data managed safely. The system is secured to allow access only to the authorized voter by its OTP-based authentication mechanism via SMS gateway. In fact, such a model of two- factor authentication considerably reduces unauthorized access and hence enhances the security for the voting process. All votes are encrypted before storage to maintain confidentiality and integrity of data for the voters using the system. The architecture of the system is such that it is scalable, hence, capable of responding to simultaneous requests from a high volume of users with no degradation of performance. Extensive testing gives evidence of the system's reliability and efficiency in different scenarios, hence allowing it to suit all parameters that ensure a secure, as well as transparent, electoral process. Introducing contemporary technology into the context of voting, this e-voting system has great potential to revolutionize how elections are conducted and guarantee more participation while securing the integrity of the election outcome in the digital era. INDEX TERMS : Online Voting , Secure Voting Platform, Voter Authentication, OTP Verification, SMS Gateway, Encryption, Web Application Development, Voting Results , Election Management System

NCTE 2024 Election Results

NCTE 2024 Election Results

Digital Democracy in India: How Social Media Shapes Political Narratives?

Social media has significantly impacted the landscape of Indian electoral politics, transforming the dynamics of political campaigning and voter engagement. The adoption of platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, and Instagram in Indian political campaigns represents a fundamental shift in how political messages are crafted and disseminated. The 2014, 2019, and 2024 general elections highlight the strategic role of these platforms in shaping electoral outcomes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has employed social media not only as a tool for broadcasting campaign messages but also for creating interactive, data-driven strategies that personalize voter engagement. This paper examines the multifaceted impact of social media on Indian politics, including its influence on voter behaviour, campaign strategies, and public opinion. It explores both the empowering aspects of digital engagement and the challenges, such as misinformation, echo chambers, and algorithmic biases. The aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how social media has redefined political communication and its implications for democratic processes in India.

Peran Masyarakat Desa Sumberejo pada Penyelenggaraan Pilkada Serentak Tahun 2024

The purpose of this journal is to provide socialization and education to the people of Sumberejo Village about political violations and the role of society in organizing regional elections. Participatory supervision plays an important role in realizing democratic leaders. Community participation that takes part in this regional election can produce integrity, credibility of organizers, transparency of organizers and accountability of election results. The method used by students is to use the socialization method by inviting members of the KPU, the people of Sumberejo Village, the Sumberejo Village apparatus, the Sub-district Panwas, and the Sumberejo Village PPS. The communication tools used by students to deliver the material are using Powerpoint and Projectors. With this socialization, it is hoped that all elements of society and government can work together to carry out regional elections fairly and in a focused manner.

Wielkość okręgów wyborczych w wyborach do sejmików województw a zasada wyborów proporcjonalnych

The subject of the article is the analysis of the influence of the size of constituencies in elections to the voivodeship assemblies on the observance of the principle of proportionality in elections. It was assumed as a research hypothesis that the existence of as many as 85 constituencies in elections to the voivodeship assemblies in Poland causes in practice the occurrence of “disproportionality” of these elections. In order to verify this hypothesis, the author presented the results of research on the impact of the size of constituencies on the results of the 2024 elections to the voivodeship assemblies, addressing the issue of using the d’Hondt and the so-called “modified” Sainte-Laguë methods, as well as a proposal to determine election results based on provincial rather than constituencies’ voting results.

여론조사에서 무응답 대체를 통한 선거 결과 예측

In the results of the election polls, the candidates' approval ratings are not only a major concern of the people, but also an important factor in establishing the election strategy of the party concerned. However, if there is an inaccurate or distorted result of the election poll, it can cause a big problem because of its influence, and the controversy about the poll often arises. There are many cases in which the actual election results are different from the results of the polls, and political parties and research institutes, which are related to the polls, are making efforts to improve the accuracy of the election forecasts. The purpose of this study is to improve the accuracy of election prediction by replacing non-response through machine learning algorithm using the survey data of the 20th Presidential Election, the 2021 Busan Mayor By-election, and the 8th National Simultaneous Local Election (Busan Metropolitan City, Nam-gu, Gimhae Mayor). For this purpose, first, the data excluding the non-response (I do not know/don't know) was separated into train data and the data selected as non-response (I do not know/don't know) was separated into test data. Second, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM methods were applied, and only the top three questions were used by deriving the importance of questions when predicting candidates through train data. Third, through the model learned based on the train data, the non-response of the test data was replaced with the response of one candidate, and the corresponding data and the train data were combined to calculate the percentage of votes for each candidate. As a result of comparing the actual election results with the percentage of votes for each candidate by replacing the non-response, it was confirmed that the Random Forest method is suitable for the model for improving the accuracy of election prediction through non-response substitution.

Who votes for populist presidential candidates? Differential support among US-based Latin American diasporas

What explains diaspora support for populist presidential candidates? Existing findings suggest most diaspora voters are less likely to support populist candidates. However, there are notable exceptions among Latin American diasporas. We posit educated diasporas will be less likely to support populist candidates and political socialization in destination countries with successful populists will increase support for populist candidates in origin-country elections. We use origin-country candidate-level election data from 13 Latin American diasporas residing in the United States to test these claims. Our data covers 172 candidates from 45 first-round presidential elections. We connect this voting data to time-variant demographic data from the American Community Survey (ACS) for US respondents born in our thirteen Latin American countries of interest. Our results complicate existing findings as only some diasporas have less support for populist candidates than domestic voters, while others have relatively more support. We find weak origin-country state capacity, manifested by non-reporting of consulate-level election results, explains this variation. Diasporas from weaker states leave earlier in life and are more politically socialized in the destination country, yet likely vote for populists out of a desire to restore order in their country of birth.

Relationship between Media Coverage and Public Opinion during Political Campaigns in South Africa

Purpose: The aim of the study was to assess the relationship between media coverage and public opinion during political campaigns in South Africa. Materials and Methods: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The study indicated that media coverage significantly influences public opinion by shaping perceptions, framing issues, and highlighting particular aspects of candidates and policies. During political campaigns, the media serves as a primary source of information for the electorate, often determining the salience of issues and the prominence of candidates. Extensive and favorable media coverage can enhance a candidate's visibility and credibility, potentially swaying undecided voters and reinforcing the views of supporters. Conversely, negative coverage can damage a candidate's public image and diminish their support base. The framing of news stories, the selection of topics, and the tone of coverage play critical roles in this process. For instance, media emphasis on certain campaign issues can lead to a phenomenon known as agenda-setting, where the public perceives these issues as more important. Additionally, the portrayal of candidates through specific narratives can influence voter perceptions, contributing to the formation of public opinion. The interplay between media coverage and public opinion underscores the media's power in shaping political landscapes and affecting electoral outcomes. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: Agenda-setting theory, framing theory and spiral of silence theory may be used to anchor future studies on assessing the relationship between media coverage and public opinion during political campaigns in South Africa. From a practical standpoint, political campaigns must adopt strategic media engagement to shape public opinion effectively. In terms of policy, there is a pressing need for regulations that promote accountability and transparency in media coverage during political campaigns.