Results-based Payments Research Articles

The inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program

The Legal Amazon of Brazil holds vast mangrove forests, but a lack of awareness of their value has prevented their inclusion into results-based payments established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Based on an inventory from over 190 forest plots in Amazon mangroves, we estimate total ecosystem carbon stocks of 468 ± 67 Megagrams (Mg) ha−1; which are significantly higher than Brazilian upland biomes currently included into national carbon offset financing. Conversion of mangroves results in potential emissions of 1228 Mg CO2e ha−1, which are 3-fold higher than land use emissions from conversion of the Amazon rainforest. Our work provides the foundation for the inclusion of mangroves in Brazil’s intended Nationally Determined Contribution, and here we show that halting mangrove deforestation in the Legal Amazon would generate avoided emissions of 0.9 ± 0.3 Teragrams (Tg) CO2e yr−1; which is equivalent to the annual carbon accumulation in 82,400 ha of secondary forests.

Drivers of PES effectiveness: Some evidence from a quantitative meta-analysis

Payments for Environmental or Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes have become a popular tool to address environmental degradation and to promote sustainable management of ecosystem services. We use meta-regression analysis on a sample of 110 individual studies to investigate the determinants of the environmental effectiveness, defined as the probability to increase environmental services (ES) provision, of about 149 PES-schemes implemented worldwide. We find that increased effectiveness of PES schemes is strongly associated with periodical third-party monitoring, generic reference design and to a lesser extent results-based payments. We further study the determinants of PES additionality, defined as direct changes in ES provision induced by the PES scheme, compared to a baseline without PES, on a smaller sample of 41 studies from which we could obtain the necessary data. The results confirm the role of certain design variables, such as monitoring type, and raise a potential trade-off between enrolment and additionality in the assessment of PES effectiveness.

Farmers' acceptance of results-based agri-environmental schemes: A German perspective

Results-based agri-environmental schemes (AES) seek to overcome reluctance to adopt other forms of AES in the European Union. Instead of complying with inflexible land management prescriptions, farmers receive payments after certain contracted environmental results are verified. In addition to reducing the organizational and administrative burdens, this practice allows farmers to focus on which practices can achieve the desired environmental outcomes. Farmer uptake of results-based payments may be limited by risk-adverse behavior, such as fear of not meeting environmental targets and forfeiting the contracted payment. This study investigated participation in a hypothetical results-based AES among arable farmers in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia and the number of hectares enrolled (participation intensity). Our hypothetical scheme sought to foster biodiversity in pollinator and bird species by supporting weed-species richness in intensive arable production. Our split-treatment research design investigated how social nudging influences acceptance and intensity. Approximately 60% of the 63 farmers in our convenience sample expressed a willingness to participate in our hypothetical scheme. Using a Heckman style selection model, we could not detect any effect of the social nudge tested on the likelihood of participation or its intensity. Cognitive factors correlated positively with the likelihood of participation, whereas social and dispositional factors correlated with participation intensity. Perceived lack of control was the main obstacle found to adoption. The findings suggest that policies can mitigate barriers to acceptance by reducing the bureaucratic burden and being transparent over expected costs and ecosystem benefits. This study was the first to investigate farmers' acceptance of a hypothetical results-based AES that targets the enrichment of biodiversity in arable farming and thus may serve as a stepping stone for follow-up studies.

Carbon emissions reductions from Indonesia’s moratorium on forest concessions are cost-effective yet contribute little to Paris pledges

International initiatives for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) could make critical, cost-effective contributions to tropical countries' nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Norway, a key donor of such initiatives, had a REDD+ partnership with Indonesia, offering results-based payments in exchange for emissions reductions calculated against a historical baseline. Central to this partnership was an area-based moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions in primary and peatland forests. We evaluate the effectiveness of the moratorium between 2011 and 2018 by applying a matched triple difference strategy to a unique panel dataset. Treated dryland forest inside moratorium areas retained, at most, an average of 0.65% higher forest cover compared to untreated dryland forest outside the moratorium. By contrast, carbon-rich peatland forest was unaffected by the moratorium. Cumulative avoided dryland deforestation from 2011 until 2018 translates into 67.8 million to 86.9 million tons of emissions reductions, implying an effective carbon price below Norway's US$5 per ton price. Based on Norway's price, our estimated cumulative emissions reductions are equivalent to a payment of US$339 million to US$434.5 million. Annually, our estimates suggest a 3 to 4% contribution to Indonesia's NDC commitment of a 29% emissions reduction by 2030. Despite the Indonesia-Norway partnership ending in 2021, reducing emissions from deforestation remains critical for meeting this commitment. Future area-based REDD+ initiatives could build on the moratorium's outcomes by reforming its incentives and institutional arrangements, particularly in peatland forest areas.

ДОСВІД ЄС У ЗАСТОСУВАННІ АГРОЕКОЛОГІЧНИХ СХЕМ У СФЕРІ ЗАХИСТУ БІОРІЗНОМАНІТТЯ ПРИРОДООХОРОННИХ ТЕРИТОРІЙ

The article considers the scientific and organizational bases for the development and implementation of agro-ecological schemes, according to which payments are paid for achieving results in the field of conservation of biodiversity of protected areas. It is noted that in practice there exists a continuum of approaches to delivering biodiversity objectives on agricultural land within the boundaries of protected areas and areas with high natural value, ranging from the more conventional management-based approaches, to those approaches that reward only the results that are achieved, irrespective of the methods used. Results-based payments create a market for environmental services, including biodiversity. Production of these services needs to be incentivised on areas best placed to deliver on specific target. For biodiversity this includes Natura 2000 and land of similar character and high nature value farmland. Results-based payments relate to the achievement of a defined environmental result, and the farmer or land manager is allowed the flexibility to choose the most appropriate management to achieve that result (in contrast to management-based schemes where the farmer is contracted to undertake specific actions). With results-based payments there are typically varying levels of payment, where the level of payment reflects the quality of the biodiversity, or level of achievement of other environmental targets, assessed at field level. Also identified that for results-based schemes the calculation payment is based on the income foregone and additional costs incurred in implementing the typical farming practices required to achieve the result indicators and transaction costs. It is concluded that overwhelming benefits of the results-based payments approach are the associated tiered payments which are both financially efficient and incentivise higher quality results; the opportunity for farmers to use their management skills, professional judgment and farm knowledge. The main problem for the implementation of effective results-based schemes is the presence good data about the dynamic relationship between the target ecosystems and the economics and management choices of the farming systems that support them.

Facility and Community Results-Based Financing to Improve Maternal and Child Nutrition and Health in The Gambia

ABSTRACT In 2013, the Government of The Gambia implemented a novel results-based financing (RBF) intervention designed to improve maternal and child nutrition and health through a combination of community, facility and individual incentives. In a mixed-methods study, we used a randomized 2 × 2 study design to measure these interventions’ impact on the uptake of priority maternal health services, hygiene and sanitation. Conditional cash transfers to individuals were bundled with facility results-based payments. Community groups received incentive payments conditional on completion of locally-designed health projects. Randomization occurred separately at health facility and community levels. Our model pools baseline, midline and endline exposure data to identify evidence of the interventions’ impact in isolation or combination. Multivariable linear regression models were estimated. A qualitative study was embedded, with data thematically analyzed. We analyzed 5,927 household surveys: 1,939 baseline, 1,951 midline, and 2,037 endline. On average, community group interventions increased skilled deliveries by 11 percentage points, while the facility interventions package increased them by seven percentage points. No impact was found, either in the community group or facility intervention package arms on early ANC. The community group intervention led to 49, 43 and 48 percentage point increases in handwashing stations, soaps at station and water at station, respectively. No impact was found on improved sanitation facilities. The qualitative data help understand factors underlying these changes. No interaction was found between the community and facility interventions. Where demand-side barriers predominate and community governance structures exist, community group RBF interventions may be more effective than facility designs.

Toward a More Representative Monitoring of Land-Use and Land-Cover Dynamics: The Use of a Sample-Based Assessment through Augmented Visual Interpretation Using Open Foris Collect Earth

High-quality data for REDD+ monitoring, measurement, and reporting are critical for the continued success of REDD+ implementation and Results-Based Payments. Collect Earth is a free, user-friendly, and open-source software for land monitoring developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The tool allows countries to undertake land monitoring easily and rapidly through a sample-based approach and generate Activity Data (data on the magnitude of human activity resulting in emissions or removals during a given period of time) through augmented visual interpretation with low costs. Under the Paris Agreement, countries will have to update the greenhouse gas inventories that they report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change every two years through the Biennial Update Reports. One of the important benefits of using sample-based approaches such as the one proposed by Collect Earth is the possibility to achieve a detailed classification of the land-use sub-categories with high accuracy of the estimates for land-use changes occurring since 2000. However, most guidance documents developed for capacity building in developing countries for REDD+ reporting only advocate developing land-cover and land-cover change maps using remote sensing. As several countries already use Collect Earth and the sample-based methodology to report on REDD+, this commentary advocates for a more representative approach and a methodological debate on the potential of sample-based approaches using remote sensing, and when possible combined with ground truthing, to estimate Activity Data for REDD+ and countries’ greenhouse gas inventories for the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector in general.

Assessment of REDD+ MRV Capacity in Developing Countries and Implications under the Paris Regime

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognized the importance of forests in combating climate change and agreed upon financial support for REDD+ activities in developing countries through the Warsaw REDD+ Framework (WRF). The REDD+ activities for conserving carbon stored in forests to reduce GHG emissions and to enhance the carbon sink function of forests are expected to serve as an important means for achieving the climatic goal. In this study, a set of criteria was devised to assess the REDD+ Measuring, Reporting, and Verifying (MRV) implementation capabilities of developing countries, which was applied to analyze the REDD+ MRV levels in REDD+ countries. Based on the Forest Reference Emission Level/Forest Reference Level (FREL/FRL), National Strategy (NS), National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS) and Safeguard Information Summary (SIS) the countries submitted, 36 REDD+ countries submitted only the FREL/FRL (Group I), while 5 countries fulfilled the WRF requirements and registered REDD+ reduction results (Group II), and 6 received Results-Based Payments (RBP) (Group III). From longest to shortest, the periods for which the International Fund provided support were arranged in the order of Group III, II, and I, verifying the relative importance of international support. From highest to lowest, the overall MRV capability was also arranged in the order of Group III, II, and I, although Group I or Group II was at a higher level than the other groups in some elements. REDD+ countries in the Readiness Phase (Group I) would aim to have the MRV capabilities of Groups II and III to receive RBP, and international support for REDD+ MRV capacity building could enable them to do. However, in addition to the receipt of RBP, REDD+ should be reflected in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as consistent reduction results at the national GHG inventory level, and the advancement of REDD+ MRV is expected to be a necessary and sufficient condition for REDD+ cooperation under the Paris Agreement cooperative approach framework. For the following groups, international cooperation is essential. Countries in the Readiness Phase need to be supported with the establishment of an MRV framework, which will enable them to achieve REDD+ to receive RBP and be reflected in NDCs. For REDD+ countries that have thus far met the WRF requirements, the REDD+ scope needs to be upscaled to national levels, and the MRV system should be further advanced to establish a cooperative approach system that can achieve more ambitious reduction targets through forests.

Ecosystem accounting to support the Common Agricultural Policy

The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) provides an integrated statistical framework which organizes spatially explicit data on environmental quality, natural capital and ecosystem services and links this information to economic activities such as agriculture. In this paper we assess how the SEEA EA can support the monitoring and evaluation of environmental objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). We focus on the Netherlands, for which an elaborate set of SEEA EA accounts has been published, and the themes of nitrogen pollution and farmland biodiversity. We studied the completeness of indicators included in the accounts, their quality and analysed how the accounts could support agri-environmental reporting, agri-environmental measures effectiveness assessments, and results-based payments to farmers. As a reference we used the Driving forces – Pressures – State – Impacts - Responses (DPSIR) framework. The Dutch SEEA EA accounts only include half of the indicators which we considered essential to assess the effects of farming on natural capital and ecosystem services for the two studied environmental themes. However, most gaps in the accounts could be filled with other publicly available environmental monitoring data. Regarding N pollution, the availability and reliability of indicators at landscape and farm scales are not sufficient to support the assessment of agri-environmental measures effectiveness and results-based payments to decrease N pollution. The accounts have a higher potential to support the assessment of measures to conserve farmland biodiversity, in particular due to high resolution maps of ecosystem extent and ecosystem services flows. The potential of the SEEA EA accounts may be more limited in other countries where ecosystem accounting has only recently started. However, the SEEA EA is also implemented at the European Union scale, so that SEEA EA indicators will gradually become available for all European countries. To enhance the relevance of the SEEA EA in the agri-environmental policy area, we recommend to integrate information on farming emissions (externalities) recorded in the SEEA Central Framework with SEEA EA accounts and evaluate the applicability of SEEA EA accounts for case studies at landscape and farm scales. Our research shows that the Dutch SEEA EA accounts, complemented with other data sources, have potential to strongly enhance the CAP monitoring and evaluation framework but further steps need to be taken to fill data gaps.

Are indigenous territories effective natural climate solutions? A neotropical analysis using matching methods and geographic discontinuity designs.

Indigenous Territories (ITs) with less centralized forest governance than Protected Areas (PAs) may represent cost-effective natural climate solutions to meet the Paris agreement. However, the literature has been limited to examining the effect of ITs on deforestation, despite the influence of anthropogenic degradation. Thus, little is known about the temporal and spatial effect of allocating ITs on carbon stocks dynamics that account for losses from deforestation and degradation. Using Amazon Basin countries and Panama, this study aims to estimate the temporal and spatial effects of ITs and PAs on carbon stocks. To estimate the temporal effects, we use annual carbon density maps, matching analysis, and linear mixed models. Furthermore, we explore the spatial heterogeneity of these estimates through geographic discontinuity designs, allowing us to assess the spatial effect of ITs and PAs boundaries on carbon stocks. The temporal effects highlight that allocating ITs preserves carbon stocks and buffer losses as well as allocating PAs in Panama and Amazon Basin countries. The geographic discontinuity designs reveal that ITs’ boundaries secure more extensive carbon stocks than their surroundings, and this difference tends to increase towards the least accessible areas, suggesting that indigenous land use in neotropical forests may have a temporarily and spatially stable impact on carbon stocks. Our findings imply that ITs in neotropical forests support Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Thus, Indigenous peoples must become recipients of countries’ results-based payments.

Negotiating between forest conversion, industrial tree plantations and multifunctional landscapes. Power and politics in forest transitions

Increasing forest cover through reforestation and forest regrowth constitutes an essential contribution to mitigating the climate crisis, especially in the tropics. The Southeast Asian country of Lao PDR is on the brink of a forest transition, that is, a shift from net deforestation to net increases in forest area. This process is, however, contested and this article sheds light to power and politics in forest transitions and the implications for forests and people in Lao PDR and beyond. We develop a conceptual framework rooted in political ecology and critical state theory to identify visions and strategies by institutional actors that aim to transform the forests in particular ways, reflect on their power resources and synthesize three development projects from these strategies. We identify an antecedent dominant extractivist development project, focused on state-led timber extraction and large-scale land acquisitions. We argue that green development strategies that commodify forests through offsetting schemes, results-based payments from REDD+ and industrial tree plantations are increasingly mobilized to complement and modernize this extractivist development trajectory. Whereas these strategies align in their focus on land sparing to intensify agricultural and forest production, on the margins, we carve out an alternative livelihoods-based development project that supports extensive agroecological practices (including shifting cultivation) and integrates forests into multifunctional landscapes, re-centering local interests in reforestation approaches. The research therefore contributes to a more complex understanding of power and politics in forest transition research as well as a nuanced understanding of forest politics in political ecology.

Capacity Development for Use of Remote Sensing for REDD+ MRV Using Online and Offline Activities: Impacts and Lessons Learned

Four workshops and a webinar series were organized, with the aim of building capacity in countries to use Earth Observation Remote Sensing data to monitor forest cover changes and measure emissions reductions for REDD+ results-based payments. Webinars and workshops covered a variety of relevant tools and methods. The initiative was collaboratively organised by a number of Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI) partner institutions with funding from the World Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF). The collaborative approach with multiple partners proved to be efficient and was able to reach a large audience, particularly in the case of the webinars. However, the impact in terms of use of tools and training of others after the events was higher for the workshops. In addition, engagement with experts was higher from workshop participants. In terms of efficiency, webinars are significantly cheaper to organize. A hybrid approach might be considered for future initiatives; and, this study of the effectiveness of both in-person and online capacity building can guide the development of future initiatives, something that is particularly pertinent in a COVID-19 era.

The Importance of High–Quality Data for REDD+ Monitoring and Reporting

This article discusses the importance of quality deforestation area estimates for reliable and credible REDD+ monitoring and reporting. It discusses how countries can make use of global spatial tree cover change assessments, but how considerable additional efforts are required to translate these into national deforestation estimates. The article illustrates the relevance of countries’ continued efforts on improving data quality for REDD+ monitoring by looking at Mexico, Cambodia, and Ghana. The experience in these countries show differences between deforestation areas assessed directly from maps and improved sample-based deforestation area estimates, highlighting significant changes in both magnitude and trend of assessed deforestation from both methods. Forests play an important role in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, and therefore the ability of countries to accurately measure greenhouse gases from forests is critical. Continued efforts by countries are needed to produce credible and reliable data. Supporting countries to continually increase the quality of deforestation area estimates will also support more efficient allocation of finance that rewards REDD+ results-based payments.

Requirements and Realities of REDD+ Implementation in Nigeria

Negotiations and decisions of the 2007 and 2010 Conference of the Parties (COP) sessions at Bali and Cancun enabled participants to develop pilot projects leading into a national strategy on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) ‘Readiness’. REDD+ provides incentives for countries to receive payments for restraining greenhouse gas emissions through forest conservation, sustainable forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. The overarching Warsaw Framework on REDD+ set at COP19 in 2013 provided guidelines for how countries can work towards eligibility for results-based payments for carbon savings from REDD+. It included seven points covering governance issues, approaches to reference emissions level estimation, forest inventory and reporting obligations. In this paper we examine the case of REDD+ in Nigeria by assessing how effectively that nation has implemented the Warsaw Framework requirements. We determine that the country’s over-ambitious political motivation for REDD+ affected not only the practical design of its National Strategy but also distracted management from establishing adequate safeguards for the program. Lack of capacity in advanced modeling hindered the establishment of the forest emissions reference level. That step was essential to enabling payments for reported and verified emission reduction outcomes. We reveal that national circumstances like forest governance, capacity, and political factors significantly influenced the effectiveness of pilot programs. From the Nigerian case, we maintain that effective REDD+ pilot programs should ensure that there is: full and active engagement with relevant stakeholders; a comprehensive review of forest management policies and regulations to establish a reliable forest reference level; a rigorous and robust national forest monitoring system; and safeguards to assist implementation and distribute carbon benefit-sharing rights.

Results Based Payments for REDD+ under the Green Climate Fund: Lessons Learned on Social, Environmental and Governance Safeguards

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Decisions for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) recognize its role in poverty alleviation, enhancing social and environmental resilience and ensuring linkages between mitigation and adaptation. Similarly, the UNFCCC recognizes the diversity of potential environmental and social risks and benefits that could result from REDD+ implementation. As a result, the UNFCCC adopted a set of social, environmental and governance safeguards, commonly known as “Cancun Safeguards.” Cancun Safeguards should be addressed and respected throughout REDD+ implementation regardless of the source and type of funding and play a key role in accessing results-based finance. The UNFCCC provides guidance regarding an information system as well as up-to-date reports as information and reporting tools on how all Cancun Safeguards have been addressed and respected. However, the UNFCCC does not offer any guidance on how to consider, assess and/or verify reported information. Given the key role that the Green Climate Fund (GCF) plays in channeling REDD+ results-based finance, this research paper examines early lessons from the GCF’s pilot programme for REDD-plus results-based payments (RBPs). It assesses the extent to which REDD+ activities have been implemented in consistency with the Cancun Safeguards. This paper examines the assessment and verification procedures of the GCF’s pilot programme. Key informant interviews have been a key source of information. We conclude that assessing the extent to which REDD+ results-based activities have in fact been consistent with Cancun Safeguards is a complex endeavor. Such complexity requires a qualitative approach as well as a dedicated verification procedure. This in turn has not been fully captured in the GCF’s pilot programme. Additionally, we conclude that by requiring countries to demonstrate conformance with its interim safeguards in the context of REDD+ results-based finance, the GCF’s pilot programme poses a significant burden to countries’ abilities to access results-based financing.

"Wood Security": the importance of incentives and economic valorisation in conserving and expanding forests

Tropical forest degradation is a major source of greenhouse-gas emissions, but international forest and climate policies are yet to respond decisively to this. In some regions, as a result of population growth, climate change and forest degradation, the increased need for wood, whether for timber or fuelwood, will exceed the sustainable supply capacity of natural forests and plantations, potentially accelerating deforestation processes. As with the issue of food security, a problem of "wood supply security" is emerging in several developing countries. This issue is poorly understood by most international initiatives focused on climate or biodiversity, which want to conserve forests but neglect the importance of the productive role of forests to support this conservation through their sustainable use. Solutions exist, but a number of barriers, starting with unclear tenure rights and short-sighted policy choices, prevent the large-scale deployment of these ones. Putting investment back at the forefront of the international agenda and setting the right incentives for producers is necessary to overcome these barriers and create the conditions for achieving future results sought by the "results-based payments" schemes such as REDD+, currently favoured by donors. Beyond the production side, the role of the global demand and the consumers is critical, and trade policies should evolve significantly to favour sustainable and deforestation-free productions.

Mapping national REDD+ initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region

Countries in the Asia-Pacific region are pioneers in the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. They have implemented readiness activities to fulfil the requirements for results-based payments from the forestry sector (termed REDD+). Using content analysis, a questionnaire, and a series of workshops with key stakeholders, we mapped the REDD + readiness of 11 Asia-Pacific countries with respect to UNFCCC's resolutions on REDD+. Their status was mapped against the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which constitutes the five design elements of the Warsaw REDD + Framework and the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) requirements. While the overall achievements vary across the studied countries, our results demonstrate that Vietnam, Nepal, and Indonesia are in an advanced stage of REDD + readiness. A significant number of conditional NDCs and timely and adequate technical and financial support are imperative for the studied countries to achieve a high level of readiness. However, lack of trust and coordination among the state and non-state actors, limited national participation of Civil Society Organizations and Indigenous Peoples in REDD + related committees, and conflicts among regulatory frameworks related to forestry and other land uses remain common challenges for these countries. These challenges risk disrupting the essence of REDD + as a multi-level, multi-stage and multi-stakeholder governance system. Stakeholders in these countries are optimistic about a better performance of REDD + regarding emission reduction, enhanced livelihoods, improved forest governance and improvement in biodiversity. However, any optimism is challenged by stakeholder's own suspicion of the effectiveness of REDD + projects to achieve permanency and control leakage/displacement. Building political will and the development of context-specific benefit-sharing plans and their effective implementation could be important keys to maintaining optimism of stakeholders about REDD + initiatives.

From the Citizen’s Constitution to REDD+

This article identifies forest and climate change public policy instruments in Brazil. The country created a complex network of forest protection, deforestation control policies and Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) instruments, culminating with institutional arrangements for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+). Brazil’s positions at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations relied on a diverse pattern of leadership, blockage, and flexibility. Under the Warsaw REDD+ Framework, Brazil reduced 8,2 billion tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) and received almost 1,4 billion American dollars as results-based payments, by the end of 2018.

Mitigating the effects of omission errors on area and area change estimates

Information on Earth's land surface and change over time has never been easier to obtain, but making informed decisions to manage land well necessitates that this information is accurate and precise. In recent years, due largely to the inevitability of classification errors in remote sensing-based maps and the marked effects of these errors on subsequent area estimates, sample-based area estimates of land cover and land change have increased in importance and use. Area estimation of land cover and change by sampling is often made more efficient by a priori knowledge of the study area to be analyzed (e.g., stratification). Satellite data, obtained free of cost for virtually all of Earth's land surface, provide an excellent source for constructing landscape stratifications in the form of maps. Errors of omission, defined as sample units observed as land change but mapped as a stable class, may introduce considerable uncertainty in parameter estimates obtained from the sample data (e.g., area estimates of land change). The effects of omission errors are exacerbated in situations where the area of intact forest is large relative to the area of forest change, a common situation in countries that seek results-based payments for reductions in deforestation and associated carbon emissions. The presence of omission errors in such situations can preclude the acquisition of statistically valid evidence of a reduction in deforestation, and thus prevent payments. International donors and countries concerned with mitigating the effects of climate change are looking for guidance on how to reduce the effects of omission errors on area estimates of land change. This article presents the underlying reasons for the effects of omission errors on area estimates, case studies highlighting real-world examples of these effects, and proposes potential solutions. Practicable approaches to efficiently splitting large stable strata are presented that may reduce the effects of omission errors and immediately improve the quality of estimates. However, more research is needed before further recommendations can be provided on how to contain, mitigate and potentially eliminate the effects of omissions errors.

Toward REDD+ Implementation

After several years of REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) readiness, countries are starting to move toward REDD+ implementation and accessing results-based payments (RBPs). Currently various parallel processes for accessing RBPs exist, including project and jurisdictional—approaches that often operate under a nascent national framework. This review is structured around the key considerations for countries to implement REDD+ and access RBPs. It offers a discussion focusing on three areas that are crucial for the success of REDD+: ( a) REDD+ in the context of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), ( b) the role of the private sector in achieving emissions reductions, and ( c) access to RBPs for REDD+. We present some key considerations for future issues and possible successes of REDD+ implementation.