Summer Drought over Western India C. S. Ramage* The Indian Ocean and Asia comprise a unique water-land combination : an uninterrupted continental mass, north of about 15° N, bordering a uninterrupted ocean to the south. The differing heat capacities of land and ocean subjected to the annual latitudinal cycle of the sun at its zenith give rise to the immense seasonal wind regimes known as monsoons. Although monsoons develop over other parts of the world, only around the Indian Ocean do they appear as truly massive interruptions and reversals of the normal global atmospheric circulation. Within this region the summer monsoon of the Arabian Sea is outstanding. Strong south and southwest winds of unequaled persistence sweep along the shores of Africa and Arabia and across the sea to western India. To the west and north extends the great yearround desert arc of Somalia, Arabia, Iran, and West Pakistan; in the northeast the arc ends in western India, a desert in winter, usually rain-drenched in summer. Vagaries of summer monsoon rain over western India may have dire results and have so far defied the efforts of countless perspiring meteorologists to forecast them adequately. Of the monsoon onset, the fisherman and the sailor think of winds, light or moderate northeast in the winter, usually shifting during late May to fresh or strong southwest. However, to the landanchored millions, the onset occurs when summer rains break the * Professor of Meteorology at the University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822, since 1957, Dr. Ramage is also Chairman of the Department of Geosciences and Associate Director of the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, from which this is Contribution No. 199. Supported by Grant GA-386 of the Atmospheric Sciences Section, National Science Foundation, this paper was presented at the Fifth Technical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Caracas, Venezuela, 20 28 November 1967. 41 42 ASSOCIATION OF pacific coast geographers 1004IOOO 004 008 Figure 1. Summer (July, August, September ): Mean surface pressure in nib (dashed lines); mean resultant wind direction ( solid lines ) . Figure 2. Summer: Mean isochrones of onset of monsoon rains: places mentioned in text (land above 12,000 feet elevation shown by hatching). winter drought. During winter, when dry northeast winds dominate the Indian subcontinent, the weather is dry. One might expect, then, that during summer the rains would begin when air which has crossed thousands of miles of ocean to the southwest moves in over the land. To the contrary, however, the rains may not begin until some weeks after the winds shift. This would indicate that establishment of the wind circulation in response to heating of the desert arc and development of heatlows (Figure 1) is a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite for rain, and that the air must be additionally modified before the moisture of the southwest monsoon can be precipitated. Furthermore, 1.The first rains of the monsoon might be expected to develop over southwest India and spread downstream along the flow toward the northeast. However, the rains start almost simultaneously in the northeast and south of the country, but do not reach the northwest until more than six weeks later (Figure 2). 2.Over the coastal regions of northwest India, north of Bombay , when the on-shore surface monsoon flow is strong, near-desert conditions prevail even at the height of the summer monsoon. Less rain falls here on a coast directly exposed to the monsoon than over the Deccan Plateau of central India, a sheltered area lying in the rain shadow of the Western Ghats (Figure 3). VOLUME 30 YEARBOOK 1968 43 I Figure 3. Summer: Mean rainfall in Figure 4. Summer: Mean frequency of surface depression occurrence (from Ananthakrishnan1 ). Isopleths labeled in inches (solid lines); percentage duration times per season (solid) and in years of rain ( dashed lines ) . between occurrences (dashed). 3.The meteorologist can often relate rain distribution to the distribution of pressure systems. Figure 4, based on 70 years of records ,1 depicts the frequency distribution of surface depressions and storms over the Arabian Sea, the Indian subcontinent, and the Bay of Bengal. The depressions, which generally move west-northwest up the Ganges Valley, readily account for the high precipitation of northeastern India and the...