Resolution Regional Climate Model Research Articles

The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America

Climate science has long explored whether higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) provide improved simulation of regional climates over global climate models (GCMs). The advent of convective-permitting RCMs (CPRCMs), where sufficiently fine-scale grids allow explicitly resolving rather than parametrising convection, has created a clear distinction between RCM and GCM formulations. This study investigates the simulation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands in a suite of pan-South America convective-permitting Met Office Unified Model (UM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate simulations. All simulations produce annual cycles in TE cloud band frequency within 10–30% of observed climatology. However, too few cloud band days are simulated during the early summer (Nov–Dec) and too many during the core summer (Jan–Feb). Compared with their parent forcing, CPRCMs simulate more dry days but systematically higher daily rainfall rates, keeping the total rain biases low. During cloud band systems, the CPRCMs correctly reproduced the observed changes in tropical rain rates and their importance to climatology. Circulation analysis suggests that simulated lower subtropical rain rates during cloud bands systems, in contrast to the higher rates in the tropics, are associated with weaker northwesterly moisture flux from the Amazon towards southeast South America, more evident in the CPRCMs. Taken together, the results suggest that CPRCMs tend to be more effective at producing heavy daily rainfall rates than parametrised simulations for a given level of near-surface moist energy. The extent to which this improves or degrades biases present in the parent simulations is strongly region-dependent.

On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation

High resolution regional climate models (RCM) are necessary to capture local precipitation but are too expensive to fully explore the uncertainties associated with future projections. To resolve the large cost of RCMs, Doury et al. (2023) proposed a neural network based RCM-emulator for the near-surface temperature, at a daily and 12 km-resolution. It uses existing RCM simulations to learn the relationship between low-resolution predictors and high resolution surface variables. When trained the emulator can be applied to any low resolution simulation to produce ensembles of high resolution emulated simulations. This study assesses the suitability of applying the RCM-emulator for precipitation thanks to a novel asymmetric loss function to reproduce the entire precipitation distribution over any grid point. Under a perfect conditions framework, the resulting emulator shows striking ability to reproduce the RCM original series with an excellent spatio-temporal correlation. In particular, a very good behaviour is obtained for the two tails of the distribution, measured by the number of dry days and the 99th quantile. Moreover, it creates consistent precipitation objects even if the highest frequency details are missed. The emulator quality holds for all simulations of the same RCM, with any driving GCM, ensuring transferability of the tool to GCMs never downscaled by the RCM. A first showcase of downscaling GCM simulations showed that the RCM-emulator brings significant added-value with respect to the GCM as it produces the correct high resolution spatial structure and heavy precipitation intensity. Nevertheless, further work is needed to establish a relevant evaluation framework for GCM applications.

Physically‐Informed Super‐Resolution Downscaling of Antarctic Surface Melt

AbstractBecause Antarctic surface melt is mostly driven by local processes, its simulation necessitates high‐resolution regional climate models (RCMs). However, the current horizontal resolution of RCMs (≈25–30 km) is inadequate for capturing small‐scale melt processes. To address this limitation, we present SUPREME (SUPer‐REsolution‐based Melt Estimation over Antarctica), a deep learning method to downscale surface melt to 5.5 km resolution using a physically‐informed super‐resolution model. The physical information integrated into the model originates from observations tied to surface melt, specifically remote sensing‐derived albedo and elevation. These remote sensing data, in addition to a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) run at 27 km resolution, account for the diverse drivers of surface melt across Antarctica, facilitating effective generalization beyond the training region of the Antarctic Peninsula. A comparison of SUPREME with a dynamically downscaled RACMO run at 5.5 km over the Antarctic Peninsula shows high accuracy, with average yearly RMSE and bias of 5.5 mm w.e. yr−1 and 4.5 mm w.e. yr−1, respectively. Validation at five automatic weather stations reveals SUPREME's marked improvement with substantially lower average RMSE (81 mm w.e.) compared to RACMO 27 km (129 mm w.e.). Beyond the training region, SUPREME aligns more closely with remote sensing products associated with surface melt than super‐resolution models lacking physical constraints. While further validation of SUPREME is needed, our study highlights the potential of super‐resolution techniques with physical constraints for high‐resolution surface melt monitoring in Antarctica, providing insights into the impacts of localized melting on processes affecting ice shelf integrity such as hydrofracturing.

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

Developing climate services for vulnerable islands in the Southwest Indian Ocean: A combined statistical and dynamical CMIP6 downscaling approach for climate change assessment

Climate change is a global challenge necessitating adaptation at the local level. Small island developing states (SIDS) in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin are particularly vulnerable and already facing significant challenges due to climate variability and extreme weather events like tropical cyclones (TCs). Tailored climate services, catering to their specific needs and contexts, are crucial for formulating appropriate adaptation strategies. This study aims to fill the gap of localized and reliable information for climate services in the SWIO region. A 12-km resolution regional climate model is dynamically downscaled from a CMIP6 model to capture the climatology of tropical cyclones. Outputs are bias-corrected at kilometer-scale resolution over multiple islands. A subset of CMIP6 simulations is also statistically downscaled over La Réunion to quantify model uncertainties at the local scale and compare statistical and dynamical downscaling methods.CMIP6 models project an average increase in daily mean temperatures over small islands ranging from 1.2 °C (SSP1-2.6) to 3.7 °C (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the century compared to the reference period of 1981–2010, and up to 4.4 °C on Madagascar (SSP5-8.5). The dry season in the SWIO region is anticipated to become significantly drier, with precipitation deficits ranging from 10 % to 40 %, primarily due to a delayed onset of the rainy season. The cyclonic risk is expected to increase due to stronger cyclone intensities, a higher proportion of strong TCs, and the poleward migration of very intense TCs by one to two degrees latitude, further amplifying the risk faced by the Mascarene islands.

Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF-RCM.

This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985-2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under highshared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.

Convection-permitting climate simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model

AbstractWe present the first convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations at 4.5 km horizontal resolution for South America at near-continental scale, including full details of the experimental setup and results from the reanalysis-driven hindcast and climate model-driven present-day simulations. We use a range of satellite and ground-based observations to evaluate the CPRCM simulations covering the period 1998–2007 comparing the CPRCM output with lower resolution regional and global climate model configurations for key regions of Brazil. We find that using the convection-permitting model at high resolution leads to large improvements in the representation of precipitation, specifically in simulating its diurnal cycle, frequency, and sub-daily intensity distribution (i.e. the proportion of heavy and light precipitation). We tentatively conclude that there are also improvements in the spatial structure of precipitation. We see higher precipitation intensity and extremes over Amazonia in the CPRCMs compared with observations, though more sub-daily observational data from meteorological stations are required to conclusively determine whether the CPRCMs add value in this regard. For annual mean precipitation and mean, maximum and minimum near surface temperatures, it is not clear that the CPRCMs add value compared with coarser-resolution models with parameterised convection. We also find large changes in the contribution to evapotranspiration from canopy evaporation compared to soil evaporation and transpiration compared with the RCM. This is likely to be related to the shift in precipitation intensity distribution of the CPRCMs compared to the RCM and its impact on the hydrological requires further investigation.

Consistency of the regional response to global warming levels from CMIP5 and CORDEX projections

Assessing the regional responses to different Global Warming Levels (GWLs; e.g. + 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 ºC) is one of the most important challenges in climate change sciences since the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C with respect to the pre-industrial period. Regional responses to global warming were typically analyzed using global projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and, more recently, using higher resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over limited regions. For instance, the IPCC AR6 WGI Atlas provides results of the regional response to different GWLs for several climate variables from both GCMs and RCMs. These results are calculated under the assumption that the regional signal to global warming is consistent between the GCMs and the nested RCMs. In the present study we investigate the above assumption by evaluating the consistency of regional responses to global warming from global (CMIP5) and regional (CORDEX) projections. The dataset aggregated over the new IPCC reference regions, available from the IPCC AR6 WGI Atlas repository, is analyzed here for temperature and precipitation. The existing relationships between the regional climate change signals and global warming are compared for both CMIP5 and CORDEX. Our results show significant linear scaling relationships between regional changes and global warming for most of the regions. CORDEX and CMIP5 show remarkably similar scaling relationships and similar robustness in the emergence of the climate change signal for most of the regions. These results support the use of regional climate models in the context of global warming level studies.

A Comparative Study Between Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations Coupled and Uncoupled to a Regional Ocean Model of the Indian Summer Monsoon

AbstractWe evaluate the impact of air‐sea coupling in simulating the characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) by using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere regional climate model (CRSM) and an atmosphere‐only regional climate model (URSM). These 20‐km resolution regional climate models (RCMs) were driven by the boundary conditions from Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) global model. The mean ISM rainfall simulated by URSM and CRSM is comparable with observations and shows an improvement over the CCSM4. The systematic error in the spatial distribution of the mean June–September low‐level and upper‐level winds, sea surface temperature, and latent heat flux shows that CRSM performs better than URSM, suggesting the benefits of air‐sea coupling in the RCM simulations of the mean ISM. Both the CRSM and the URSM perform reasonably and comparably in capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of 10–20‐day high‐frequency and 20–70‐day low‐frequency ISOs of the ISM rainfall. These RCMs simulated the observed features of the ISO‐filtered rainfall anomalies that propagate at a faster rate across the Arabian Sea compared to that over the Bay of Bengal. Furthermore, the difference in the track density of the monsoon low‐pressure systems between the wet and the dry phases of ISOs shows insignificant differences between CRSM and URSM but is found to be superior to the CCSM4 simulation. This study suggests a relative insensitivity of air‐sea coupling in the RCM for simulating ISO and LPS features of ISM, which is likely abetted by the realistic ISO signals in the parent CCSM4.

Physical responses of Baiu extreme precipitation to future warming: Examples of the 2018 and 2020 western Japan events

Baiu (Meiyu) is a continuous and large-scale rainfall phenomenon in East Asia, whose extreme events have caused many disasters in recent years. Global warming will accelerate the global water cycle and tend to increase the risks of extreme precipitation events. However, to date, the response of Baiu extreme rainfall to future climate warming is still not well investigated. In this study, by conducting the ensemble experiments with a very high resolution (2 km) regional climate model and pseudo warming technique, we reproduced two Baiu extreme rainfall events in 2018 and 2020 that caused severe losses in western Japan, and investigated its response to a +4K warmer climate. We found that climate warming will apparently increase the intensity of the peak Baiu precipitation, and the increasing rates can be much larger than the well-known Clausius-Clapeyron (C–C) scaling (∼7% K−1) with the maximum rate reaching 16.7% K−1 for Shikoku in the 2018 event. This increase in peak precipitation is jointly caused by the increased atmospheric moisture and the accelerated vertical air motion. However, both super and under C–C scaling of changes are expected for total precipitation, with the range from 1.5% K−1 to 17.4% K−1 for different regions and events. The rainfall change rates are jointly influenced by moisture transport direction and elevation, topography, and vertical air motion. The moisture inflow with lower elevation tends to cause a larger rainfall increase. It should also be noted that our regional simulations underestimate the extreme precipitation when reproducing the two events, which is caused by the bias in the GCM data. Implementing bias correction methods or future improvement of GCM simulations could be the solutions for future study. Overall, this study points out the risk of extreme Baiu rainfall under future global warming, and highlights the different increasing rates of extreme Baiu rainfall due to specific climate conditions.

Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation

Recent studies using convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations have demonstrated a step-change in the representation of heavy rainfall and rainfall characteristics (frequency-intensity) compared to coarser resolution Global and Regional climate models. The goal of this study is to better understand what explains the weaker frequency of precipitation in the CP ensemble by assessing the triggering process of precipitation in the different ensembles of regional climate simulations available over Europe. We focus on the statistical relationship between tropospheric temperature, humidity and precipitation to understand how the frequency of precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean is impacted by model resolution and the representation of convection (parameterized vs. explicit). We employ a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (FPSCONV). The multi-variate approach is applied to all model ensembles, and to several surface stations where the integrated water vapor (IWV) is derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The results show that all model ensembles capture the temperature dependence of the critical value of IWV (IWVcv), above which an increase in precipitation frequency occurs, but the differences between the models in terms of the value of IWVcv, and the probability of its being exceeded, can be large at higher temperatures. The lower frequency of precipitation in convection-permitting simulations is not only explained by higher temperatures but also by a higher IWVcv necessary to trigger precipitation at similar temperatures, and a lower probability to exceed this critical value. The spread between models in simulating IWVcv and the probability of exceeding IWVcv is reduced over land in the ensemble of models with explicit convection, especially at high temperatures, when the convective fraction of total precipitation becomes more important and the influence of the representation of entrainment in models thus becomes more important. Over lowlands, both model resolution and convection representation affect precipitation triggering while over mountainous areas, resolution has the highest impact due to orography-induced triggering processes. Over the sea, since lifting is produced by large-scale convergence, the probability to exceed IWVcv does not depend on temperature, and the model resolution does not have a clear impact on the results.

Future Projections of Precipitation using Bias–Corrected High–Resolution Regional Climate Models for Sub–Regions with Homogeneous Characteristics in South Korea

Future Projections of Precipitation using Bias–Corrected High–Resolution Regional Climate Models for Sub–Regions with Homogeneous Characteristics in South Korea

A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small-scale information in regional climate change projections

The issue of the added value (AV) of high resolution regional climate models is complex and still strongly debated. Here, we approach AV in a perfect model framework within a 16-member single model initial condition ensemble with the regional climate model RACMO2 embedded in the global climate model EC-Earth2.3. In addition, we also used an ensemble produced by a pseudo global warming (PGW) approach. Results for winter temperature and precipitation are investigated from two different perspectives: (1) a signal-to-noise perspective analysing the systematic response to changing emission forcings versus internal climate variability, and (2) a prediction perspective aimed at predicting a 30-year future climate state. Systematic changes in winter temperature and precipitation contain fine-scale response patterns, but in particular for precipitation these patterns are small compared to internal variability. Therefore, single members of the ensemble provide only limited information on these systematic patterns. However, they can be estimated more reliably from PGW members because of the stronger constraints on internal variability. From the prediction perspective, we analysed AV of fine-scale information by comparing three prediction pairs. This analysis shows that there is AV in the fine-scale information for temperature, yet for precipitation adding fine-scale changes generally deteriorates the predictions. Using only the large-scale change (without fine scales) from a single ensemble member as a delta change on top of the present-day climate state, already provides a robust estimate of the future climate state and therefore can be used as a simple benchmark to measure added value.

Regional climate model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach

Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In the longer term, the final aim of this tool is to enlarge the high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost to explore better the various sources of projection uncertainty at local scale. Using a neural network, we build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12 km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM, particularly how the RCM refines the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a substantial computational benefit of running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 h on GPU, and the prediction takes less than a minute. However, further work is needed to improve the reproduction of some temperature extremes, the climate change intensity and extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest.

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

FUTURE PROJECTION OF SO2 CONCENTRATION LEVELS OVER TAMIL NADU, INDIA USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL, PRECIS

Due to rapid economic growth, industrialization and urbanization, sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) from coalfired power plants in India has increased notably in the past decades. The present paper estimates and predicts the future sulphur dioxide (SO2 ) concentrations in Tamil Nadu, India by using PRECIS, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) developed by Hadley Centre –UK Met office. The model is run with 25 km × 25 km resolution using different baseline Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBCs) from the Global Climate Model (GCM) - HadCM3Q at the emission rate of SRES A1B scenarios. Results show that SO2 emissions in major industrial cities in Tamil Nadu increased dramatically by 40% during 2000–2012. It is estimated that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, anthropogenic emissions of SO2 for the whole Tamil Nadu would increase more between 2010 and 2030 and then may decrease by end of the century due to various pollution control measures are implemented. For Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projection shows a decrease of 33% by the end of the century with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Further, a long term trend in the sulphur emissions for all the districts of Tamil Nadu including Cudddalore, Kancheepuram and Chennai districts having major industrial areas are projected for the period 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Such important results by using a high resolution regional climate model may be useful for various impact and vulnerability assessments studies in the state.

Projected Streamflow and Sediment Supply under Changing Climate to the Coast of the Kalu River Basin in Tropical Sri Lanka over the 21st Century

Tropical countries are already experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change. This study presents projections of climate change-driven variations in hydrology and sediment loads in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka. Bias-corrected climate projections (i.e., precipitation and temperature) from three high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (viz., RegCM4-MIROC5, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR, and NCC-NORESM1-M) are used here to force a calibrated hydrological model to project streamflow and sediment loads for two future periods (mid-century: 2046–2065, and end of the century: 2081–2099) under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, all simulations (forced with the three RCMs) project increased annual streamflow (67–87%) and sediment loads (128–145%). In general, streamflow and sediment loads are projected to increase more during the southwest monsoon season (May–September) than in other periods. Furthermore, by the end of the century, all simulations under the RCP 8.5 project a shift of streamflow and sediment loads in the southwest monsoon peak from May to June, while preserving the peak in the inter-monsoon 2 (in October). The projected changes in annual sediment loads are greater than the projected changes in annual streamflow (in percentage) for both future periods.

Climate change projections for sustainable and healthy cities.

The ambition to develop sustainable and healthy cities requires city-specific policy and practice founded on a multidisciplinary evidence base, including projections of human-induced climate change. A cascade of climate models of increasing complexity and resolution is reviewed, which provides the basis for constructing climate projections—from global climate models with a typical horizontal resolution of a few hundred kilometres, through regional climate models at 12–50 km to convection-permitting models at 1 km resolution that permit the representation of urban induced climates. Different approaches to modelling the urban heat island (UHI) are also reviewed—focusing on how climate model outputs can be adjusted and coupled with urban canopy models to better represent UHI intensity, its impacts and variability. The latter can be due to changes induced by urbanisation or to climate change itself. City interventions such as greater use of green infrastructure also have an effect on the UHI and can help to reduce adverse health impacts such as heat stress and the mortality associated with increasing heat. Examples for the Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) partner cities of London, Rennes, Kisumu, Nairobi, Beijing and Ningbo illustrate how cities could potentially make use of more detailed models and projections to develop and evaluate policies and practices targeted at their specific environmental and health priorities.Practice RelevanceLarge-scale climate projections for the coming decades show robust trends in rising air temperatures, including more warm days and nights, and longer/more intense warm spells and heatwaves. This paper describes how more complex and higher resolution regional climate and urban canopy models can be combined with the aim of better understanding and quantifying how these larger scale patterns of change may be modified at the city or finer scale. These modifications may arise due to urbanisation and effects such as the UHI, as well as city interventions such as the greater use of grey and green infrastructures.There is potential danger in generalising from one city to another—under certain conditions some cities may experience an urban cool island, or little future intensification of the UHI, for example. City-specific, tailored climate projections combined with tailored health impact models contribute to an evidence base that supports built environment professionals, urban planners and policymakers to ensure designs for buildings and urban areas are fit for future climates.

Climate change over UK cities: the urban influence on extreme temperatures in the UK climate projections

Increasing summer temperatures in a warming climate will increase the exposure of the UK population to heat-stress and associated heat-related mortality. Urban inhabitants are particularly at risk, as urban areas are often significantly warmer than rural areas as a result of the urban heat island phenomenon. The latest UK Climate Projections include an ensemble of convection-permitting model (CPM) simulations which provide credible climate information at the city-scale, the first of their kind for national climate scenarios. Using a newly developed urban signal extraction technique, we quantify the urban influence on present-day (1981–2000) and future (2061–2080) temperature extremes in the CPM compared to the coarser resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations over UK cities. We find that the urban influence in these models is markedly different, with the magnitude of night-time urban heat islands overestimated in the RCM, significantly for the warmest nights (up to 4~^{circ }C), while the CPM agrees much better with observations. This improvement is driven by the improved land-surface representation and more sophisticated urban scheme MORUSES employed by the CPM, which distinguishes street canyons and roofs. In future, there is a strong amplification of the urban influence in the RCM, whilst there is little change in the CPM. We find that future changes in soil moisture play an important role in the magnitude of the urban influence, highlighting the importance of the accurate representation of land-surface and hydrological processes for urban heat island studies. The results indicate that the CPM provides more reliable urban temperature projections, due at least in part to the improved urban scheme.