FUTURE PROJECTION OF SO2 CONCENTRATION LEVELS OVER TAMIL NADU, INDIA USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL, PRECIS

Abstract

Due to rapid economic growth, industrialization and urbanization, sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) from coalfired power plants in India has increased notably in the past decades. The present paper estimates and predicts the future sulphur dioxide (SO2 ) concentrations in Tamil Nadu, India by using PRECIS, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) developed by Hadley Centre –UK Met office. The model is run with 25 km × 25 km resolution using different baseline Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBCs) from the Global Climate Model (GCM) - HadCM3Q at the emission rate of SRES A1B scenarios. Results show that SO2 emissions in major industrial cities in Tamil Nadu increased dramatically by 40% during 2000–2012. It is estimated that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, anthropogenic emissions of SO2 for the whole Tamil Nadu would increase more between 2010 and 2030 and then may decrease by end of the century due to various pollution control measures are implemented. For Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projection shows a decrease of 33% by the end of the century with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Further, a long term trend in the sulphur emissions for all the districts of Tamil Nadu including Cudddalore, Kancheepuram and Chennai districts having major industrial areas are projected for the period 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Such important results by using a high resolution regional climate model may be useful for various impact and vulnerability assessments studies in the state.