A precise prediction of the cure-induced shrinkage of an epoxy resin is performed using a finite element simulation procedure for the material behaviour. A series of experiments investigating the cure shrinkage of the resin system has shown a variation in the measured cure-induced strains. The observed variation results from the thermal history during the pre-cure. A proposed complex thermal expansion model and a conventional chemical shrinkage model are utilised to predict the cure shrinkage observed with finite element simulations. The thermal expansion model is fitted to measured data and considers material effects such as the glass transition temperature and the evolution of the expansion with the degree of cure. The simulations accurately capture the exothermal heat release from the resin and the cure-induced strains across various temperature profiles. The simulations follow the experimentally observed behaviour. The simulation predictions achieve good accuracy with 2–6% discrepancy compared with the experimentally measured shrinkage over a wide range of cure profiles. Demonstrating that the proposed complex thermal expansion model affects the potential to minimise the shrinkage of the studied epoxy resin. A recommendation of material parameters necessary to accurately determine cure shrinkage is listed. These parameters are required to predict cure shrinkage, allow for possible minimisation, and optimise cure profiles for the investigated resin system. Furthermore, in a study where the resin movement is restrained and therefore able to build up residual stresses, these parameters can describe the cure contribution of the residual stresses in a component.