System Resilience Research Articles

Beyond volatility: Systemic resilience and risk mitigation in interconnected commodity markets

In today's interconnected commodity markets, understanding volatility spillover dynamics is crucial. This research builds on Diebold & Yilmaz (2012, 2014) to estimate System Resilience, a vital measure for investors and policymakers. By using connectedness-based estimates, a unique stability score for each system component is constructed and aggregated to estimate overall System Resilience. This concept is applied to three key commodity segments: Energy, Agriculture, and Metals. Results show that most commodities, especially bullion, maintain moderate stability, offering investment alternatives even during periods of heightened systemic risk. The study also examines rolling estimates of System Resilience to identify early warning signals through increased standard deviation in successive resilience series. Tipping points indicate critical slowdowns where recovery to a stable state is hindered. Findings suggest that apart from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), commodity portfolios remain relatively stable. The implications are significant for energy policymakers, traders, and financial investors. Early detection of warning signals supports strategic risk management. This research contributes to academic discourse and provides actionable insights, highlighting the importance of early warning indicators in enhancing financial resilience in an ever-evolving market landscape. It underscores the value of foresight in navigating global financial stability.

Austerity Measures and the Resilience of Zimbabwe's Healthcare System: Challenges and Solutions.

Austerity measures have become a contentious topic, shaping the landscape of health care systems around the world. As governments grapple with economic challenges, the impact of austerity on health care has emerged as a critical concern. This study focuses on the consequences of austerity actions adopted by the Zimbabwean government under the Transitional Stabilization Program (TSP) from August 2018 to December 2025. This research examines the impact of austerity measures on Zimbabwe's health care sector, exploring its connections with health infrastructure and resources, accessibility and affordability of health care, health funding, health care inequalities, and the health care workforce. Using a quantitative approach and data from 970 participants, including the general populace, health care providers, and government officials, significant positive correlations between austerity measures and these health care variables were identified. The findings indicated a noteworthy positive correlation between the independent variable "austerity measures" and five dependent variables: health care accessibility and affordability, health care inequalities, infrastructure and resources, health care funding, and health care workforce. The t-statistics values exceeded the threshold of 1.96, with values of 5.085, 3.120, 6.459, 8.517, and 3.830, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of considering the effects of austerity on health care access, health funding, health care inequalities, health workforce, health infrastructure and resources development. Policymakers should prioritize equitable resource allocation and targeted investments to strengthen the resilience of the health care system during economic challenges. Understanding these associations is crucial for evidence-based policy decisions and fostering a more equitable and resilient health care system in Zimbabwe.

Enhancing resilience of distribution systems: Integrating mobile energy storage systems and information gap decision theory for uncertainty management

Power Distribution Systems (PDSs) have seen considerable disruption owing to events and the intrinsic uncertainty associated with renewable energy sources (RES). The fundamental purpose of this project is to identify methods to enhance the resilience of Mobile Energy Storage Systems (MESSs) against unexpected cyber and natural disasters. Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) is used to effectively handle the uncertainties linked with RES's outputs. It also applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to predict important aspects that affect the output of RES. The shift to microgrid mode prioritizes the delivery of critical loads through MESSs, which are crucial amid adverse situations. A risk-averse strategy mitigates risks associated with wind turbine and photovoltaic (PV) outputs, therefore enhancing the resilience of the PDS. An optimization model utilizing Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) was formulated. The approach's efficacy in reducing uncertainties in RES has been proved by simulations conducted on the IEEE 69 bus and Dakota transport system. Assuming the most severe situation, the Uncertainty Radius (UR) for wind turbines is 0.7385, but for PVs, it is 0.8753, thereby guaranteeing the robustness of the system against power failures and disturbances.

Development of a thermal diagnostic system for the SPARC tokamak.

The SPARC tokamak will have scrape-off layer parallel heat fluxes on the order of GW/m2. Managing power exhaust of this magnitude will be mandatory for a reactor-scale device. To enable this mission, a thermal diagnostic suite will be deployed to measure the in-vessel structural temperatures to ensure they do not exceed their design limits and to determine the spatial distribution and magnitude of energy deposited onto the first wall. Thermocouples and fiber Bragg gratings have been selected for their environmental compatibility and proven useful on other fusion devices. High-density thermocouple arrays in the divertor will have two spring-loaded thermocouples per divertor target tile, which are being used as calorimeters, and will look to resolve the temperature distribution within the tile due to a swept or static strike point. All systems will need to survive the vacuum vessel bake, set at a minimum plasma facing surface temperature of 350 °C, which presents a particularly challenging environment for the fiber-based subsystem. Along with this temperature design requirement, all the materials in the primary vacuum need to be ultra-high vacuum compatible, able to handle the expected neutron and gamma radiation, as well as tritium exposure, all of which restrict material options. Finally, due to the expected activated environment in SPARC, there will be little chance to replace defective sensors, so system resilience is ensured through toroidal redundancy, probe material selection, and mitigating the impact of common-mode failures. Initial testing of sensors show that intershot structural measurements are sufficiently captured with the raw output, but intrashot measurements of the plasma facing material requires model-based interpretive tools.

Electricity supply resiliency evaluation by a hybrid renewable energy system for a petrochemical plant: Frameworks and quantitative assessment methodologies

The escalation of harm inflicted upon energy systems, has spurred the investigation of energy system resilience. In this regard, the measurement of resilience capacity can serve as a valuable metric for assessing the energy system's ability to withstand a variety of events that may result in potential adverse outcomes. For renewable energy systems, the measurement of resilience is imperative due to the inherent unpredictability and unreliability in their nature. Often, resilience studies lack the comprehensiveness required to fully comprehend the intricate interdependencies within integrated hybrid renewable energy systems. This research delineates the essential factors required to facilitate a comprehensive understanding and advancement in the quantification of such integrated systems in small-scale. Pardis Petrochemical Company, located in Asalouyeh city, Iran, has been chosen as case study. Four distinct configurations of hybrid renewable energy systems—comprising Photovoltaic panels, Photovoltaic panels + Wind Turbines, Photovoltaic panels + Wave energy converters, and Photovoltaic panels + Wind Turbines + Wave energy converters— connected to grid, have been developed. These configurations are the result of a multi-objective optimization process, considering the following metrics: the cost of electricity (as an economic metric), CO2 emissions (as an environmental metric), loss of power supply probability (as a reliability metric), and exergy efficiency (as a technical metric). Subsequently, a methodological framework for multicriteria decision support is introduced. This framework is constructed based on primary resilience dimensions, namely: “resist,” “restabilize,” “technology,” and “withstand” serve as a tool for measuring the resiliency of the optimized configurations. The findings indicate that the Photovoltaic panels + Wind Turbines + Wave Energy Converters configuration is as the most resilient system among the studied alternatives.

Adaptive Compensation for Robotic Joint Failures Using Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning

Robotic manipulators are widely used in various industries for complex and repetitive tasks. However, they remain vulnerable to unexpected hardware failures. In this study, we address the challenge of enabling a robotic manipulator to complete tasks despite joint malfunctions. Specifically, we develop a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to adaptively compensate for a nonfunctional joint during task execution. Our experimental platform is the Franka robot with seven degrees of freedom (DOFs). We formulate the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where the robot is trained under various joint failure conditions and tested in both seen and unseen scenarios. We consider scenarios where a joint is permanently broken and where it functions intermittently. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by comparing it with traditional inverse kinematics-based control methods. The results show that the RL algorithm enables the robot to successfully complete tasks even with joint failures, achieving a high success rate with an average rate of 93.6%. This showcases its robustness and adaptability. Our findings highlight the potential of RL to enhance the resilience and reliability of robotic systems, making them better suited for unpredictable environments.

A Study on The Dominance of Digital Transaction Over M3 Money Supply Transactions

The financial landscape is evolving increasingly with digital transactions dominating traditional M3 money supply transactions. Given the growth of digital payments, fintech innovations and cryptocurrencies, there is an urgent need to understand the degree to which these electronic transactions have now surpassed or altered conventional M3 money supply operations. In this study, we seek to fill that gap with our understanding and direction forwards. By investigating the effect on financial stability, economic growth and the overall resilience of monetary systems, this research opens up new avenues for analysis in an ongoing dialogue about how digital transformation has been affecting financial transactions and its wider implications for the money landscape.

Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum): A Climate Resilient and Nutritionally Significant Crop for Global Food Security

The environmental balance needed for agriculture is severely strained due to changes in rainfall patterns and climate change, as well as the growing global need for food. As global temperatures rise and precipitation patterns become more erratic, millets offer an efficient solution to the trade-off between food security and water availability. Millets are rich in nutrients and possess a special ability to endure extreme conditions such as heat, drought, and various other abiotic and biotic stresses. Pearl millet is a highly climate-resilient crop capable of mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. Antioxidant gene expression, presence of a waxy outer layer and heat shock proteins/chaperons contribute to its abiotic stress tolerance. By adjusting its flowering phenology and establishing fast-growing roots, pearl millet enhances its water and nutrient use efficiency. Stable sources of germplasm in pearl millet that exhibit resistance to diseases such as downy mildew, blast, rust, smut, and ergot have also been incorporated into disease resistance breeding programs. Pearl millet plays a crucial role in nourishing the poverty-stricken populations due to its high palatability and rich nutritional profile. Various bioactive compounds pertain to hypoglycemic, anticancerous and probiotic properties that contribute to its health benefits. Biofortification in pearl millet offers a solution to address issues of micronutrient deficiency in vulnerable populations. Continued research and investment in pearl millet production not only bolster food security but also contribute to the resilience of agricultural systems in the face of increasingly unpredictable environmental conditions. Thus, embracing pearl millet represents a forward-thinking approach to ensuring food security and promoting nutritional diversity on a global scale.

Comparation on the responses and resilience of single-anammox system and synergistic partial-denitrification/anammox system to long-term nutrient starvation: Performance and metagenomic insights

Starvation disturbance was a common problem in biological sewage treatment processes. However, understanding about the responses and resilience of different active anammox biomass in autotrophic and heterotrophic systems to long-term nutrient starvation remains limited. This study compared responses and potential recovery mechanisms of autotrophic single-Anammox and heterotrophic synergistic partial-denitrification/anammox (PD/anammox) systems to prolonged starvation (31–40 days). After starvation, total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) removal efficiency of single-Anammox and synergistic PD/anammox systems decreased to 62.16 % and 78.52 %, respectively, of their original level. After the nutrient resupply, the performance of both systems gradually recovered to a similar-to-pre-starvation level at the rate of 1.26 %/day and 1.89 %/day, respectively. Compared with single-Anammox system, complex synergistic relationship of microorganisms and effective quorum sensing (QS) regulation strategies might mitigate the negative influences were caused by starvation and ensure the performance quickly return of synergistic PD/anammox system. This study would contribute to promote the application of Anammox technology.

Macrogenomic analysis of tolerance and degradation mechanisms of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in carbon and nitrogen metabolic pathways and associated bacterial communities during endogenous partial denitrification

The effective production of NO2−-N through endogenous partial denitrification (EPD) provides a promising perspective for the broader adoption and application of anaerobic ammonia oxidation. However, the accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the environment may worsen the operational challenges of the EPD system. This study evaluated the resilience of the EPD system to the toxic impacts of phenanthrene (PHE) and anthracene (ANT) through macrogenomic analysis. A control group was maintained under identical conditions for comparison. The results revealed that PHE and ANT had a relatively minimal impact on NO3−-N transformation and organic matter removal but significantly affected PO43−-P removal and NO2−-N accumulation in the EPD process. The PHE system achieved a higher NO2−-N accumulation, with a maximum NO3−-N to NO2−-N conversion ratio of 90.08%. In contrast, the ANT system exhibited higher efficiency in the PO43−-P removal, achieving a peak removal rate of 74.94%. Macrogenomic analysis revealed that PAHs significantly enriched both denitrifying glycogen-accumulating organisms (including Candidatus_Competibacter) and denitrifying polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (such as Thauera, Candidatus_Contendobacter, and Candidatus_Accumulibacter). This enrichment stabilized these organisms, facilitating NO2−-N accumulation and PO43−-P removal. Metabolic pathway analysis indicated that PHE promoted the enrichment of NO3−-N reductase and inhibited NO2−-N reductase activity. However, ANT stimulated oxidative phosphorylation and the phosphate cycle. Moreover, PAH metabolites enhanced the expression of key genes encoding succinate dehydrogenase and isocitrate dehydrogenase in the tricarboxylic acid cycle within the EPD process, leading to increase the synthesis and utilization of acetyl coenzyme-A. Notably, significant differences were observed between the effects of PHE and ANT on these metabolic processes. This study provides new methods for treating PAH-containing wastewater through the combination of EPD and anaerobic ammonia oxidation.

A thermodynamic approach to evaluating the ecological health and sustainability of integrated production systems in Goharkuh Taftan agro-industrial complex and sensitivity analysis of the results

In recent times, the increasing influx of energy inputs into farming systems has led to a significant enhancement in their overall efficiency. However, this has happened at the expense of endangering the sustainability of these systems and degrading the environment. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a methodology to evaluate the resilience of agricultural systems. This study utilised the Steinborn and Svirezhev methodology to assess five different production systems (wheat, barley, alfalfa, cotton, and Pistachio) within the Goharkuh Taftan agro-industrial complex. The approach measures the excessive production of entropy, which acts as an indicator of the system's departure from sustainability. The study focuses on four components: overproduction of entropy, limit energy load, maximum crop yield for sustainable agriculture, and deviation from sustainable agriculture. The results indicated that the production systems analysed in this study produce surplus entropy, thus rendering them in an unstable condition. Among all the products, alfalfa had the lowest entropy overproduction, while pistachio had the highest. The three agricultural commodities, namely wheat, barley, and cotton, are situated at a point equidistant from the two opposite ends. Alfalfa has shown greater energy use efficiency compared to pistachios. It surpasses the maximum crop yield for sustainable agriculture and has less deviation from sustainable agriculture than other integrated production systems. The differences in the intensity of energy flow and the structural characteristics of the integrated production systems were responsible for the variations in the values of the examined components. Nevertheless, none of these solutions are sustainable in the long term. An analysis of the energy inputs and components of the harvest index revealed the importance of implementing management techniques that decrease the intensity of energy flows into these systems and enhance the harvest index to attain a sustainable state. Integrating supplementary renewable energy sources will bolster the long-term sustainability of production systems.

Деятельность российских нефтегазовых компаний в Арктике: теория и практика резильентности в эпоху декарбонизации

Addressing global climate change presents a shared challenge, particularly for the development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) and for industrial companies operating in the region, including oil and gas producers. Given the strategic role of hydrocarbon development in the AZRF for ensuring Russia’s energy security and the responsibility of oil and gas companies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is critical to examine their role in enhancing the resilience of the AZRF amidst global decarbonization efforts. This article aims to provide a theoretical and practical analysis of the relationship between organizational and territorial resilience in the context of climate change. It focuses on the measures taken by Russian oil and gas companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the anthropogenic impact of their operations in the AZRF. The empirical basis for this study is drawn from the corporate reports of the largest Russian oil and gas companies. Through a review of contemporary Russian and international research, key risks to the resilience of economic systems in the AZRF are identified. A conceptual framework is proposed, highlighting the role of oil and gas companies in supporting the resilience of the AZRF, particularly through decarbonization initiatives aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change, such as permafrost thawing. Content analysis has been used to categorize the environmental and industrial safety measures, as well as decarbonization efforts, undertaken by Russian oil and gas companies in the AZRF. The study concludes by outlining the various decarbonization scenarios and strategies implemented by these companies in the AZRF.

Monitoring of black oak (xánthiip) to center indigenous ecocultural revitalization

AbstractIndigenous Knowledge, Practice, and Belief Systems (IKPBS) are an ecological and cultural framework with which Indigenous communities have (and continue to) adaptively manage their land since time immemorial. In the current context of climate change and colonial forest and fire management in the western US, Indigenously‐led ecological research and cultural revitalization offers a path forward where tribal sovereignty of land stewardship is maintained and the resiliency of natural systems are reestablished. We describe our process of developing an Indigenous‐Directed Research (IDR) partnership to study xánthiip (Karuk for black oak, Quercus kelloggii), a Karuk cultural focal species, in the context of Karuk‐led forest restoration. We first outline our process of IDR by describing how this partnership was established, research questions and methodologies were co‐developed, IKPBS were centered, and utility to tribal forest restoration processes were prioritized. The primary product of this partnership was a culturally responsive black oak monitoring protocol to assess black oak tree quality over time. We describe how this protocol was developed including conducting semi‐structured qualitative interviews with Karuk cultural practitioners, translating qualitative interviews to field protocol metrics, consulting with research partners, testing for field feasibility, and sharing back to the local community through field training and youth curriculum development. Second, we analyzed plot data collected from the implementation of the black oak protocol using a two‐eyed seeing approach that ensured our ecological findings had cultural relevance for future Karuk‐led forest stewardship. Through this analysis we described the dominant black oak tree typologies based on their traits of importance as identified by Karuk cultural practitioners and research collaborators. All natural resources research takes place on Indigenous land. By outlining the steps of this transdisciplinary IDR partnership, we provide a framework for centering IKPBS, respecting Indigenous land sovereignty, and centering Indigenous leadership in ecological research and knowledge co‐development.

Resilience in Operators, Technologies, and Systems

Resilience in Operators, Technologies, and Systems

The impact of new VAT enforcement on financial performance: Evidence from Saudi Arabia non-financial listed companies using the event study and ARMA model

This paper examines the influence of the new 15 % Value Added Tax (VAT) enforcement on non-financial listed companies in Saudi Arabia. By comparing financial data from 2019, before the VAT implementation and the COVID-19 pandemic, with data from 2020, during both the VAT increase and the pandemic, the research aims to uncover the consequences of this tax policy change. Utilizing charts, tables, and an event study analysis approach with the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, we investigated key financial indicators such as Shareholders' Equity (SE), Total Income (TI), Total Revenues (TR), Net Income (NI), Total Expenses (TE), Other Changes in Operating Activity (COA), and Cash at the End of the Period (CEP). The findings reveal significant financial impacts, highlighting companies' challenges due to the increased tax burden. Shareholders' Equity dropped from an average of 11.55 million to 4.57 million, and Total Income and Total Revenues decreased from approximately 1.73 million to 316,234 and from 1.95 million to 331,605, respectively. Net Income sharply declined from 406,109 to 74,624, and Total Expenses decreased from about 1.18 million to 223,495. Other Changes in Operating Activity shifted from a negative mean of −168,936 to a positive 523,520, and Cash at the End of the Period fell from 1.99 million to 666,663. These results suggest that the VAT increase has significantly strained companies' financial performance, emphasizing the need to consider such tax reforms carefully, particularly in developing countries. The study concludes that while the VAT increase aims to enhance government revenues, it imposes substantial financial strain on companies, potentially leading to long-term economic repercussions. Policymakers should consider these implications and implement practical measures to optimize the VAT system and support business resilience in the face of such reforms.

Reliable Federated Learning With GAN Model for Robust and Resilient Future Healthcare System

Reliable Federated Learning With GAN Model for Robust and Resilient Future Healthcare System

HARVESTING INSIGHTS: THE ROLE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN TRANSFORMING AGRICULTURAL FINANCE

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and agricultural finance has emerged as a transformative force in enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of farming practices. This review article explores the multifaceted applications of AI technologies in agricultural finance, focusing on credit scoring, risk assessment, and financial decision-making for farmers and agricultural businesses. We examine the integration of machine learning algorithms and big data analytics in providing tailored financial products, enabling precision agriculture, and improving access to credit in under banked communities. By synthesizing current literature and case studies, we identify key challenges and opportunities, such as the need for data security, transparency, and the democratization of AI tools in rural finance. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of AI to address climate change impacts on agriculture and its implications for financing sustainable practices. This article aims to provide stakeholders in the agricultural finance sector—policymakers, financial institutions, and technology developers—with a comprehensive understanding of how AI can drive innovation and improvement in financing agricultural activities, ultimately fostering a resilient and sustainable food system.

Resilient and Fast Block Transmission System for Scalable Hyperledger Fabric Blockchain in Multi-Cloud Environments

Resilient and Fast Block Transmission System for Scalable Hyperledger Fabric Blockchain in Multi-Cloud Environments

Operational resilience implementation: Challenges and opportunities for UK building societies

Operational resilience is the preparedness and existence of resilient IT systems, processes and resources to provide services continuously during a disruption. This study examines the operational resilience implementation challenges and opportunities for UK building societies and wider financial institutions. The key challenges are resource constraints, understanding regulatory requirements, supplier concerns, domain knowledge, legacy systems and manual-driven processes. Some challenges are being addressed with awareness and training, improved governance and risk management, recruitment and industry support networks. The opportunities include realising the actual state of IT systems, adopting cloud solutions, resources and capabilities, as well as improved domain knowledge and a better understanding of services and markets. Regulators need to be more explicit about their expectations and requirements, while the industry needs to collaborate on setting up common frames of reference for operational resilience frameworks. Lastly, the study provides a holistic view of operational resilience, including its implementation and management challenges, control measures and emerging opportunities.

Cost-effective and optimal pathways to selecting building microgrid components – The resilient, reliable, and flexible energy system under changing climate conditions

Amidst the changing climate conditions, electricity retailers-led demand response programs and the emergency backup power for possible grid outages are often discussed in isolation, although several underlying linkages exist, which are important for how the existing building stock evolves with the energy transition. This study navigates through the linkages while investigating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)-based building microgrid components and undertakes a comparative analysis of energy optimisation models with and without emergency diesel generators. It also examines the building energy system’s resilience, reliability, and flexibility by using OpenStudio and HOMER Grid to develop energy simulation and optimisation models and other probabilistic models for a chosen building archetype in Sydney, Australia. This study finds that excluding the emergency diesel generator will require a larger battery storage system, increasing LCOE from A$0.17/kWh to A$0.20/kWh across climate scenarios. However, the larger battery storage system increases the probability of surviving outages (> 4 h) by around 10 % across climate scenarios. The LCOE increases up to 45 % for outages up to 8 h across climate scenarios and up to 85 % for outages up to 12 h. Additionally, for the building archetype, the probability of grid purchase (below the current average) is 0.78 in 2030, which drops to 0.55 in 2050. The probability of grid sales (above the current average) also drops from 0.69 to 0.46. Thus, while the narratives around the building energy system’s flexibility overstate the electricity exchange between the building and the grid, this study finds that increasing the on-site production utilisation rate and larger battery throughput contributes to demand response application and flexibility.