Resilient Supply Research Articles

Mitigating Supply Disruption Risks: Impact of Product Upgrading Strategy

Supply disruption is one of the crucial risks faced by supply chains in the changing external environment. To mitigate supply disruption risk and enhance resilience, product upgrading with Research and Development (R&D) investment is widely adopted by firms. In this paper, we establish a game-theoretic model to study the operation decisions and product upgrading strategies for a supply chain. Specifically, Firm 1 faces supply disruption risks when selling a normal product with a key component sourced from an unreliable supplier. To achieve supply resilience, the firm has an incentive to replace the unreliable supplier with product upgrading supported by R&D. It has an option to make high or low investments in R&D projects, indicating a high or low success rate. Our findings reveal that Firm 1 prefers to make investments in R&D for the upgraded product at a high investment level when the additional production cost of the upgraded product is relatively low or both the upgrading cost and supply disruption risk are relatively high. Extending our model to a duopoly scenario, we investigate the impact of competition on the product upgrading strategy selection. It is shown that a firm with a sufficiently large market share can drive its competitor out of the market by making R&D investments. Compared to the monopoly scenario, Firm 1 has a stronger incentive to upgrade the product under the duopoly scenario if its market share is relatively low. Finally, we identify the conditions where consumers get benefits from product upgrading. Our findings shed light on the importance of product upgrading strategy in a volatile business environment and provide insights into how firms can effectively mitigate supply disruption risk through R&D investments.

Removal of turfgrass for water supply resilience

AbstractLandscape plant palettes are changing due to water supply pressure. Turfgrass area is being replaced with alternative ground covers, other non‐irrigated plants or hardscapes. Mechanisms range from incentive programs sometimes called “cash for grass” to outright bans on the use of turfgrass in “nonfunctional” areas or areas otherwise considered unnecessary. Despite evidence that shifts in landscape plants such as turf removal can save water, questions remain about the long‐term impact of such programs as well as the high cost. This shift in plant palettes will need to be accompanied by development of new groundcovers. In addition, there is opportunity for turfgrass breeding and development for cultivars that require no irrigation in humid climates.

Enhancing supply chain resilience through supervised machine learning: supplier performance analysis and risk profiling for a multi-class classification problem

PurposeThis paper explores the application of supervised machine learning (ML) classification models to address supplier performance analysis and risk profiling as a multi-class classification problem. The research highlights that current applications of machine learning in supplier selection primarily focus on binary classification problems, underscoring a significant gap in the literature.Design/methodology/approachThis research paper opts for a structured approach to solve supplier selection and risk profiling using supervised machine learning multi-class classification models and prediction probabilities. The study involved a synthetic data set of 1,600 historical data points, creating a supplier selection framework that simulates current supply chain (SC) performance. The “Supplier Analysis and Selection ML Module” guided supplier selection recommendations based on ML analysis. Real-world variability is introduced through random seeds, impacting actual delivery dates, quantity delivered and quality performance. Supervised ML models, with hyperparameter tuning, enable multi-class classification of suppliers, considering past delivery performance and risk calculations.FindingsThe study demonstrates the effectiveness of the supervised ML-based approach in ensuring consistent supplier selection across multi-class classification problems. Beyond evaluating past delivery performance, it introduces a new dimension by predicting and assessing supplier risks through ML-generated prediction probabilities. This can enhance overall SC visibility and help organizations optimize strategies associated with risk mitigation, inventory management and customer service.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings highlight the adaptability of ML-based methodologies in dynamic SC environments, providing a proactive means to identify and manage risks. These insights are vital for organizations aiming to bolster SC resilience, particularly amid uncertainties.Practical implicationsThe practical implications of this study are significant for both commercial and humanitarian supply chain management (SCM). For commercial applications, the ML-based methodology allows businesses to make more informed supplier selection decisions, reducing risks and improving operational efficiency. In disaster and humanitarian SC contexts, the use of ML can improve preparedness and resource allocation, ensuring that critical supplies reach affected areas promptly.Social implicationsThe study’s implications extend to disaster and humanitarian SCM, where timely and efficient delivery is critical for saving lives and alleviating suffering. ML tools can improve preparedness, resource allocation and coordination in these contexts, enhancing the resilience and responsiveness of humanitarian supply chains.Originality/valueUnlike conventional methods focused on quality, cost and delivery performance aspects, the current study introduces supervised ML to identify and assess supplier risks through prediction probabilities for multi-class classification problems (delivery performance as late, on-time and ahead), offering a refined understanding of supplier selection in dynamic SC environments.

Resilience assessment of water supply and demand in the Yellow River Basin based on integrated optimisation weighting–improved grey-target model

Context As a result of the combined impacts of global climate change and intensive human activities, the water-resources supply–demand imbalance has become prominent, particularly in the Yellow River Basin. Aims This study aims to accurately assess the changes in resilience of water-resource supply and demand over the past few decades. Methods This study examines the resources, economy, society, and ecology of both the supply and demand aspects in assessing the resilience of water supply and demand. The composite evaluation model based on integrated optimisation weighting and an improved grey-target model was constructed. Key results Using the Yellow River Basin as an example, from 2011 to 2020, the resilience index of the water-resource supply–demand system (RIWRSS) in the Yellow River Basin increased significantly by 69.4%. Among the 12 indicators in the Yellow River Basin, the contribution proportion of the inhibiting factors decreased by 3.7%, whereas the contribution of the driving factors increased by 70.9%. Conclusions The present study has provided insights into evaluating the RIWRSS and highlighted resilience disparities between the supply and demand sides in the Yellow River Basin. Implications This study expects to provide evidence for the improvement of water-supply conditions of water resources in the Yellow River Basin.

Supply Resilience Constrained Scheduling of MEGs for Distribution System Restoration: A Stochastic Model and FW-PH Algorithm

Supply Resilience Constrained Scheduling of MEGs for Distribution System Restoration: A Stochastic Model and FW-PH Algorithm

The Impact of Imported Timber Price Fluctuations on the Margins of Wood Forest Product Exports: Empirical Evidence from Provincial-Level Data in China

This paper adopts a comprehensive approach to integrating the wood forest product trade of China's provinces with the global market, utilizing over four million records of trade data from the Chinese Customs database and the United Nations Trade and Commerce database, creating a three-dimensional panel dataset structured by year—province—importing country. The paper decomposes the export trade share into extensive margin, quantity margin, and price margin, collectively referred to as the ternary margins of export, to analyze the impact of imported timber price fluctuations on these export margins of wood forest products. The findings indicate that fluctuations in imported timber prices increase uncertainty, thereby suppressing the growth of China's wood forest product export share, extensive margin, and quantity margin while increasing the price margin. Heterogeneity tests further reveal that the impact of imported timber price fluctuations is more pronounced for southern forest regions, labor-intensive wood products, and countries without a free trade agreement. Mechanism tests suggest that increasing forestry fixed asset investment intensity and enhancing timber supply capacity can help mitigate the uncertainty effects associated with imported timber price fluctuations. The paper proposes policy implications, including enhancing local timber supply resilience, strengthening government support for forestry, and reinforcing the supply chain.

Improving Crude Oil Tank Inventory Stock Availability Through Compact Solution Method to Ensure National Fuel Supply Security at PT Kilang Pertamina International Unit VI Balongan

PT Pertamina International Refinery Unit VI Balongan plays a crucial role in maintaining national fuel oil (BBM) and special fuel (BBK) supply resilience. However, challenges such as declining crude oil storage capacity due to tank damage and limited space threaten the continuity of refinery operations and the stability of national energy supply. This study aims to address this issue by implementing the compact solution method to enhance crude oil stock availability and secure the national fuel supply. Using a quantitative approach with descriptive methods, the research collected data through observation, document review, and literature study. The data were analyzed qualitatively to assess the impact of the compact solution method. The results indicate a significant improvement in crude oil stock availability, which increased from 60.14% (using the off-stream repair method) to 72.9%. Additionally, the tank level was successfully increased to a maximum of 13,990 mm, adhering to API 650 or API 579 FFS Level 3 standards. This improvement extends the operational lifespan of the tank to 62 years, reducing maintenance costs and ensuring uninterrupted refinery operations. The findings highlight the effectiveness of the compact solution method in addressing crude oil tank capacity issues and securing national energy resilience. These results provide valuable insights for energy sector stakeholders in optimizing crude oil storage and refinery operations while minimizing repair costs and downtime.

Strengthening food supply resilience: Lean and Lean Six Sigma strategies for disruptions

ABSTRACT Recognizing that the food industry faces a myriad of challenges, ranging from natural disasters to geopolitical conflicts and pandemics, this study explores how Lean, and Lean Six Sigma (L&LSS) can fortify supply chains against such diverse disruptions. While the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a contextual backdrop, our focus is on the broader application of L&LSS methodologies in navigating disruptive events. This study analyzes responses from 120 food firms, utilising structural equation modelling to correlate L&LSS practices with adaptive performance during crises. Our findings indicate that L&LSS not only equip firms to maintain operational continuity amidst disruptions but also positions them to anticipate and adapt to future systemic shocks. By elucidating the positive correlation between L&LSS engagement and crisis resilience, this research contributes a strategic framework to the literature, advocating for a pre-emptive embrace of L&LSS practices as essential to navigating the unpredictable nature of global crises.

Increasing Water Supply Resilience Through the Pure Water Antelope Valley Program

Key TakeawaysThe Pure Water Antelope Valley (AV) program, the first inland potable reuse program in California, aims to augment water supplies to overcome current and projected reductions.Pure Water AV will use groundwater recharge via subsurface injection to increase the reliability and resilience of Antelope Valley's water supply.A collaboration between the Palmdale Water District, City of Palmdale, and Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts, the program will improve the groundwater quality over time.Besides overcoming technical challenges, Pure Water AV's success depends on well‐thought‐out strategies for funding and public outreach.

A One Water Approach Meets Regulatory Requirements, Increases Water Supply Resilience

A One Water Approach Meets Regulatory Requirements, Increases Water Supply Resilience

Electricity supply resiliency evaluation by a hybrid renewable energy system for a petrochemical plant: Frameworks and quantitative assessment methodologies

Electricity supply resiliency evaluation by a hybrid renewable energy system for a petrochemical plant: Frameworks and quantitative assessment methodologies

Making waves: Harnessing stormwater for resilient water supply - A blueprint for vulnerable continental coasts and oceanic islands

At the forefront of climate change and natural disasters, small islands like Puerto Rico confront immense challenges in sustaining an adaptive water supply. The challenges are further exacerbated when the islands' constraints, such as geographic isolation, limited resources, aging infrastructure, constrained capacity, and environmental fragility, are compounded. As these issues increasingly impact low-lying continental coasts, home to approximately 40 % of the global population, similar water supply crises have already emerged or are anticipated in these regions. To surmount these widespread challenges, harnessing stormwater as a non-conventional water source presents a promising solution. A stormwater-enabled water supply system, collectively characterized by water source diversification, decentralization, and modularity, can enhance the resilience of water supply in these vulnerable regions, both in routine situations and during emergencies. This article identifies barriers to the implementation of stormwater-to-drinking water (STDW) practices in Puerto Rico and advocates for engineering solutions to utilize stormwater at both community and household scales in vulnerable continental coasts and small oceanic islands. The primary barriers in Puerto Rico include uncertainty in water quality, insufficient data on local stormwater availability and domestic water demand, economic constraints, and the lack of an adaptive power supply. To overcome these obstacles, we emphasize engineering strategies focused on modular system design, assessments of local stormwater capture and demand dynamics, advancements in treatment technologies, and the enhancement of energy resilience. By analyzing the Puerto Rican context, we propose a conceptual framework that outlines pathways to adaptive STDW strategies for other oceanic islands and larger, more complex continental coasts in the face of similar challenges. These pathways encompass enhancing system modularity, understanding the dynamics of local stormwater supply and water consumption, applying tailored treatment technologies, and strengthening the resilience of supporting infrastructures. The insights gained from Puerto Rico's experience can guide current and future efforts for resilient water supply solutions in increasingly vulnerable coastal, island, and other regions.

Advancing irrigation management: integrating technology and sustainability to address global food security.

Irrigation management is essential for addressing global food security challenges under changing climate. This review discusses the integration of advanced irrigation technologies and their roles in enhancing water use efficiency and managing energy demands within agricultural systems. High-efficiency irrigation systems, such as drip and sprinkler systems, have significant potential to reduce water use and increase crop yields. However, their adoption varies worldwide, and the efficiency of existing irrigation practices often remains inadequate, resulting in substantial water losses due to outdated management practices. Emerging technologies and innovative irrigation strategies, including precision agriculture and advanced crop models, provide promising pathways for improving irrigation efficiency. Nonetheless, the widespread integration of these technologies is hindered by high costs, the need for technical expertise, and challenges in adapting existing agricultural systems to new methodologies. Irrigation systems can have substantial energy requirements, particularly those dependent on groundwater. The exploration of the water-environment-energy-food (WEEF) nexus illustrates the importance of a balanced approach to resource management, which is crucial for achieving sustainable agricultural outcomes. Future research should include lowering barriers to technology adoption, enhancing data utilization for precision irrigation, promoting integrated management strategies within the WEEF framework, and strengthening policy support for sustainable practices. This review proposes a multidisciplinary approach to irrigation management that includes technological innovation, strategic policy development, and global cooperation to secure sustainable agricultural practices and ensure global food supply resilience in the face of climate change.

A geospatial assessment of the resilience of municipal water supply to flooding in Nowshera District, Pakistan

A geospatial assessment of the resilience of municipal water supply to flooding in Nowshera District, Pakistan

Design and analysis of government subsidies policy of capacity expansion under reselling and agency selling schemes

Design and analysis of government subsidies policy of capacity expansion under reselling and agency selling schemes

The new role of sustainable hydropower in flexible energy systems and its technical evolution through innovation and digitalization

The new role of sustainable hydropower in flexible energy systems and its technical evolution through innovation and digitalization

Research on the supply point mechanism of Shanghai during the closure of COVID-19 in 2022 from the perspective of urban resilience

In the context of significant public emergencies, the capacity of cities to withstand shocks assumes paramount importance, serving as a key indicator of urban resilience. This study focuses on the supply points established during the lockdown period of Shanghai in 2022 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this investigation, the actual distribution of the population is depicted using a thermodynamic map generated from cell phone usage data, while the per capita supply capacity and the intensity of supply coverage are assessed using an official list. Furthermore, the efficacy of the supply point is evaluated through a public survey. Through these combined analyses, the level of "Supply Resilience" is assessed and categorized for each district of Shanghai. The findings indicate a high level of supply resilience in the central city, with varying degrees of divergence observed in the near suburban districts and generally lower resilience in the remote suburban districts. Based on these observations, this research identifies and discusses the supply challenges exposed during the epidemic lockdown in Shanghai and proposes strategies to enhance the urban resilience in the future. Leveraging both data analysis and public survey, this study aims to offer approaches and methodologies for evaluating urban resilience under major public emergencies.

Identifying the exaptation potential of supply chain resilience capabilities during COVID-19: insights from Australia

ABSTRACT What happens to newly built resilience capabilities when the pandemic is over? Using the concept of exaptation, we investigate how supply chain organizations have repurposed supply chain resilience capabilities post-pandemic. In particular, we examine the degree of ambidexterity capabilities to identify the exaptation potential from the newly acquired supply chain resilience capabilities during a disruptive event. In this paper, we (1) adopt a framework that depicts four types of different exaptation potential for supply resilience based on the management constructs of exploitation and exploration capabilities and (2) use the results from a related survey among 447 supply chain managers in Australia to subsequently analyse the exaptation potentials post COVID-19. The integration of the exaptation potential into supply chain literature opens a new chapter on how resilience capabilities are utilized, and we found that the majority of supply chains are able to simultaneously pursue and develop exploitative and exploratory capabilities.

Higher rates of food insecurity and stress experienced by food systems workers during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The present study examined the prevalence of food insecurity and perceived stress among food system workers relative to other members of the population during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also explored perspectives on the role of food system workers during the pandemic and their experiences working during this time. Data were collected via an online survey in spring 2021. The sample was comprised of 441 residents of Vermont, United States, including 41 food system workers. Regression models identified higher rates of food insecurity and perceived stress among food system workers during the first year of the pandemic. However, these relationships were not maintained when the models were adjusted for income and job disruption, suggesting that the associations were primarily due to the economic vulnerability of food system workers. Most respondents indicated concern for the health and well-being of food system workers, felt that food system workers were undervalued, and agreed that the well-being of food system workers should be prioritized. However, opinions were split regarding whether it was worth the health risk to require farms and food processing plants to stay open to maintain the food supply. Half of food system workers believed that their work had compromised their well-being during the pandemic, although several also identified their jobs as pathways for accessing food. The findings provide valuable information for decision-makers seeking to increase the resilience of the food supply and the food system workforce.

Risk assessment and resilience enhancement strategies for urban power supply-demand imbalance affected by extreme weather: A case study of Beijing

Risk assessment and resilience enhancement strategies for urban power supply-demand imbalance affected by extreme weather: A case study of Beijing