Resilience Of Socio-ecological Systems Research Articles

Deep-time patterns of sustainability and resilience in socio-ecological systems: An Introduction to the Special Issue

As we stand on the precipice of unprecedented global challenges, understanding the deep-time patterns of sustainability and resilience is no longer just a scholarly endeavour but imperative for the future of our planet and its inhabitants. The collection of papers in this special issue brings together archaeologists, historians, and environmental scientists around four main topics: (1) social-ecological modelling, (2) long-term human-environment interactions, (3) modelling diachronic landscapes and (4) sustainability and resilience from past to future. Our aims are to come to a better understanding of socio-economic resilience and sustainability in past, present and future societies. Through interdisciplinary collaboration, we aim to forge new conceptual frameworks for understanding complex, long-term socio-ecological dynamics. Through the case studies, theoretical reflections and methodological innovations presented here, this special issue seeks to advance interdisciplinary scholarship on sustainability and resilience and offer fresh insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in building a sustainable future.

A framework for functional zoning of national parks based on biocultural diversity assessment

Reasonable zoning is essential for maintaining the integrity and stability of natural ecosystems and achieving multi-goal management of national parks, and can facilitate efficient management and protection of various resources. Biocultural diversity is an important result and outstanding representation of human-land relationships, directly affecting the resilience of socio-ecological systems. Taking Kunlun Mountains National Park in Qinghai Province (KMNP) as an example, we transformed the dualistic conservation model of biology and culture, and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) was used to establish a technical framework for the functional zoning of national parks based on the collaborative protection of biological diversity and cultural diversity. The research results indicated that biocultural diversity and its coupling relationship of KMNP are relatively good, with high coupling areas mainly dominated by cultural diversity and low coupling areas mainly by biological diversity. The research suggests that KMNP should be divided into 4 functional zones: strict protection area, ecological conservation area, traditional utilization area, and comprehensive development area. These findings provide references for the planning and construction of national parks and reserves around the world, to unleash their transformative potential in addressing global biodiversity loss.

RESILIENCIA SOCIOECOLÓGICA: CONCEPTO CLAVE PARA EL ESTUDIO DE LA SUSTENTABILIDAD EN AGROECOSISTEMAS

<p><strong>Background</strong>. In order to achieve food security and sustainability in society, current research focused on the evaluation of socio-ecological resilience (SER) of agroecosystems (AES), applies various methodological frameworks to address challenges arising from climate change and the deterioration of natural resources. <strong>Objective</strong>. To review the state of the art on the concept of socio-ecological resilience to identify and analyze the methodological frameworks, attributes, indicators, and indices applied to measure the degree of resilience currently presented in various AES models. <strong>Methodology</strong>. Publications from 1998 to 2022 were reviewed from the Dialnet, SciELO, Redalyc databases, and the Google Scholar search engine. 62 publications were selected that included the term socio-ecological resilience associated with the words "definition," "concept," "agroecosystem," and "indicators." The criteria considered were the presence or absence of the concept, the SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) indicator, as well as clarity and precision. The documents were analyzed with Nvivo 12 Pro software, applying the word frequency analysis technique. <strong>Main Results</strong>. Colombia (18), Mexico (14), the United States (7), and Sweden (5) stand out with the highest number of publications, respectively and the authors Holling (19%) as the main driver of ecological resilience, Folke (16%) emphasized the importance of SER research, Gunderson (10%) pioneered resilience in socio-ecological systems, while Berkes (9.5%) and Walker (9%) excelled in applied SER research. Methodological frameworks that attempted to operationalize the concept were the framework for assessing the management of natural resource systems incorporating sustainability indicators (MESMIS), the resilience approach, the holistic risk index (HRI), and the methodology for assessing socio-ecological resilience (MERS). Furthermore, eight publications that mentioned the term socio-ecological resilience identified its main attributes as external disturbance (21.1%), adaptive capacity (18.4%), self-organization capacity (18.4%), stability domain or attraction (15.8%), and resistance (5.3%). It was also revealed that the most suitable indicators for measuring socio-ecological resilience are dependence on external inputs, organic certification, the presence of drought-tolerant species, vulnerability to extreme climatic events, agrobiodiversity, and levels of productive organization. <strong>Implications</strong>. Deriving suitable attributes and indicators to measure the level of socio-ecological resilience will depend on the political, economic, social, ecological context, and the spatial and temporal scale of the study. <strong>Conclusion</strong>. This review shows evidence on the research efforts carried out by the scientific community to develop methodological frameworks that contribute to assess the SER of the various agricultural production models and particularly, the AES that face greater risks associated with climate change.</p>

A framework to assess resilience attributes based on local knowledge

New coexistence scenarios have been imposed on fishermen in the Santos Estuarine System region, a coastal city located 75 km from the largest city in Latin America (São Paulo). Whether due to the expansion of port and industrial activities, or due to the environmental liabilities associated with other human activities, thousands of workers from fishing communities are compelled to seek new forms of subsistence in the face of the gradual reduction of their fishing territories. The objective of this investigation was to develop a methodological framework to assess, based on local knowledge, ecological and social attributes of resilience in socio-ecological systems of small-scale fisheries over the last decades. To experimentally test the application of the framework, pilot interviews with fishermen, master craftsman and local leaders of the Santos Estuarine System were carried out with questions on aspects concerning eleven attributes of resilience, for three different time periods (currently, 25 years ago, and 50 years ago). Scores were assigned to the responses according to the contribution of the aspect addressed to the resilience of small-scale fisheries in the face of the various disturbances suffered over the years. The attribute scores in each period were then compared in a multivariate manner and the results of this pilot evaluation showed a decrease in overall resilience in recent decades, according to the perceptions of interviewees. Ecological attributes showed a significant decrease in the same period associated with anthropic pressures with losses in the attributes diversity, modularity and variability. Social resilience attributes did not show significant variation, although there was an increase in the attributes recognition of slow variables, tight feedbacks and overlap in governance. Although the use of the framework proposed requires its application on a broader scale for the characterization of resilience of small-scale fishing communities, the present study demonstrated that the methodological framework is applicable and provides useful information on attributes of socio-ecological resilience based on local knowledge.

The Butterfly Effect and its Implications for Resilience in Complex Socio-Ecological Systems

This study delves into the intriguing concept of the Butterfly Effect and its implications for resilience in complex socio-ecological systems. Drawing upon chaos theory, the Butterfly Effect posits that minute initial changes can yield substantial and unforeseen outcomes in dynamic systems. The research investigates how the Butterfly Effect influences the resilience of intricate systems, such as urban ecosystems, global supply chains, and social networks, when confronted with environmental, economic, or social disruptions. By scrutinizing case studies and employing mathematical modeling, this study seeks to unveil the nonlinear dynamics, tipping points, and feedback loops that amplify or mitigate the effects of minor perturbations in complex systems. Moreover, it explores how comprehending the Butterfly Effect can inform strategies for augmenting the resilience of socio-ecological systems, including adaptive management, scenario planning, and community engagement. The study also explores the ethical and governance considerations arising from the unpredictability and interconnectedness inherent in complex systems. It highlights the need for inclusive decision-making processes that account for diverse perspectives and values. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of adaptive governance approaches that allow for flexible responses to changing circumstances and evolving knowledge. By delving into the Butterfly Effect and its implications, this research endeavors to contribute to the development of strategies and policies that foster resilience in the face of uncertainty and promote sustainable development in complex socio-ecological systems. It recognizes the need for integrated approaches that consider the interdependencies and feedbacks between social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Ultimately, this study underscores the significance of understanding the Butterfly Effect as a lens through which to view and manage complex systems. By acknowledging the potential for cascading effects from minor changes, decision-makers and practitioners can adopt proactive measures to enhance system resilience. This research calls for further exploration of the Butterfly Effect across different scales and contexts to better grasp its implications and potential applications. In conclusion, the Butterfly Effect serves as a powerful concept for understanding the dynamics of complex socio-ecological systems. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by shedding light on its implications for resilience and providing guidance for decision-making and policy development in an uncertain and interconnected world.

Mapping Ecosystem Services Bundles for Spatial Planning with the AHP Technique: A Case Study in Tuscany (Italy)

Agricultural and forest ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services (ESs) fundamental to the well-being and quality of life of citizens. However, in the European context, these ecosystems are often threatened by processes of urban development, around cities, or abandonment, in mountainous or remote areas. Faced with the need for solutions oriented towards greater sustainability and resilience of socio-ecological systems, planning should contribute to rebuilding more integrated and mutually beneficial relationships between urban and rural areas, ensuring the effective production of multiple ESs. The regulation and management of ESs are complex and require scientifically sound and widely understandable policies and governance models, based on detailed assessment methods. This paper proposes a method for mapping and bundling the supply of five ESs produced in agricultural and forest areas, based on the processing of open source territorial data through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and tailored for the Tuscany region (Italy). The method integrates the land use and land cover map with other data to obtain a comprehensive ESs assessment, and then uses cluster analysis to identify bundles of ESs. Based on a first trial, the method seems to show high potentialities as a Decision Support System to promote innovative governance models for ES management.

Circular Economy Induced Resilience in Socio-Ecological Systems: an Ecolonomic Perspective

Circular Economy Induced Resilience in Socio-Ecological Systems: an Ecolonomic Perspective

Quantifying and improving flood resilience of urban drainage systems based on socio-ecological criteria

In this paper, a new framework is developed for evaluating the resilience of urban drainage systems (UDSs) under floods by proposing and quantifying some technical and socio-ecological (SE) criteria. The proposed criteria are used to quantify the seven principles of building resilience in socio-ecological systems. The criteria mainly focus on preserving diversity and multiplicity in a UDS, managing variables that gradually change over time (slow variables), improving structural and functional connectivity, maintaining system adaptability, encouraging learning, broadening participation, and promoting polycentric governance systems. For evaluating the efficiency of the proposed framework, it is applied to a real-world case study of improving resilience of the UDS in the eastern part of Tehran metropolitan area. Three scenarios for flood management are proposed based on the Low Impact Development (LID) practices which are simulated using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The Entropy method is used to consider the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in estimating the flood resilience. The estimated values for the proposed criteria regarding the current drainage system in the study area show its undesirable condition in many sub-catchments. The results also show that using around 2.3 km2 of LID practices in this urban watershed can significantly improve the resilience in many sub-catchments (nearly, 30%) and reduce the total volume of the overflow (about 50%). The results also show that using the flood management scenarios, improving connectivity is the most influential factor that enhances the general resilience of the system.

Quantifying resilience of socio-ecological systems through dynamic Bayesian networks

Quantifying resilience of socio-ecological systems (SES) can be invaluable to delineate management strategies of natural resources and aid the resolution of socio-environmental conflicts. However, resilience is difficult to quantify and the factors contributing to it are often unknown. We provide a theoretical and conceptual framework to quantify resilience in a long-term context. Our approach uses elements from interdisciplinarity and network perspectives to establish links and causalities between social and ecological variables and resilience attributes. The evaluation and modeling of SES structure and function are established from the analysis of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN). DBN models allow quantifying resilience through probabilities and offer a platform of interdisciplinary dialogue and an adaptive framework to address questions on ecosystem monitoring and management. The proposed DBN is tested in Monquentiva, a SES located in the high Andes of Colombia. We determined historical socio-ecological resilience from paleoecological evidence (palynological diversity, forest cover, fires, and precipitation) and social-economic factors (governance, social organization, and connectivity) between 1920 and 2019. We find that transformation processes in Monquentiva are mainly related to social change (e.g., social organization) and increased ecological diversity that in turn have fostered SES resilience between 1980 and 2019. The ability to predict the SES response over time and under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management. We conclude with a series of management and policy-relevant applications of the DBN approach for SES resilience assessment.

Koncepcja odporności systemów społeczno-ekologicznych wobec innych aktualnych koncepcji rozwoju oraz uwagi krytyczne

The aim of the article is to identify the concepts of development concerning the functioning of socio-ecological systems that share common elements with the concept of resilience. The second aim is to identify critical remarks relating to the concept of resilience, which are seldom raised by researchers and practitioners. The above goals were achieved on the basis of a query of mainly international literature relating to the concept of resilience of socio-ecological systems. The results of the research indicate that in the literature dealing with the issue of resilience, links with the concept of vulnerability and sustainable development are relatively often indicated. Critical comments relate to understanding resilience as an objective feature independent of the adopted axiology, understanding resilience in a purely positive context, and understanding resilience as the ability to withstand negative shocks rather than the ability to constantly adapt.

Climate variability in agroecosystems: A quantitative assessment of stakeholder-defined policies for enhanced socio-ecological resilience

CONTEXTThe development of methods for improving the assessment of resilience of socio-ecological systems has become increasingly important as the severity and variability of global climate patterns continue to compound and intensify. OBJECTIVEThe present study was conducted with the aim of using a dynamically-coupled bio-physical and socioeconomic model to test the efficacy of stakeholder-defined policy measures in conferring resilience to two agroecological variables, farm income and water-table depth, experiencing both socio-ecological shocks and climatic stress in the Rechna Doab basin of northeastern Pakistan. METHODSThe objective was accomplished by using a dynamically-coupled physical and group-built system dynamics modelling framework for scenario testing and output generation, including three NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DGGP), two relevant socio-ecological shock scenarios (market inflation and canal water supply variability), and three stakeholder-defined policy measures. Resilience was assessed using the following system functionality metrics: 1) The degree of return for each variable after a perturbation, i.e., the extent to which the observed variable returns to baseline functioning; 2) The return time of the variable to baseline functioning; 3) The rate of variable return to baseline; 4) Overall perturbation of the system post-disturbance; and 5) The corrective impact of the shock on system functionality. Differences in the resilience metrics were subsequently compared based on the behavioral change(s) of the study variables in response to the application of the three selected policy scenarios. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe results presented here indicate that rainwater harvesting is the most effective stakeholder-defined policy measure for improving or maintaining resilience of the tested study variables in the Rechna Doab agricultural basin; this holds true for every climate and shock scenario with the exception of water-table depth in the upper and mid-watershed regions under canal supply shock conditions, for which canal lining is the most effective policy measure. The irrigation improvement and canal lining policies were more effective in improving the resilience metrics of water-table depth than those of the farm income variable, as the water-table depth variable is not bound so tightly by economic constraints; although there were regional differences in policy efficacy, these trends hold true, on average, for the entire watershed. The results presented herein align well with previous studies conducted in the region which note similar patterns in spatial resilience of agroecosystem variables (i.e., upper to lower watershed) in the Recha Doab basin as well as regional differences in the efficacy of the stakeholder-defined policy measures. SIGNIFICANCEThis unique approach for assessing socio-environmental policies can help improve decision-making processes with respect to agro-infrastructure and climate change mitigation strategies in vulnerable agroecosystems.

Windstorm Impacts on Forest-Related Socio-Ecological Systems: An Analysis from a Socio-Economic and Institutional Perspective

Windstorms are considered among the most impacting natural events for European forests and related Socio-Ecological Systems (SES). Given that their intensity and frequency are increasing, an in-depth understanding of their impacts is crucial to mitigate risks and potential negative effects. However, so far, scientific research on windstorm impacts has mainly focused on environmental dimensions, while socio-economic and institutional ones are rarely taken into consideration. Our analysis aims at enriching the current scientific knowledge on windstorm impacts on forest SES by providing an overview of the state-of-the-art academic investigations on windstorm impacts on socio-economic and institutional dimensions. Overall, 46 papers were reviewed to identify the most recurrent post-windstorm dynamics and drivers that influence resilience and adaptation of socio-economic, institutional and related governance dimensions of European forest SES. Results show that the current scientific knowledge on socio-economic impacts of windstorms mainly concentrates on forest-related stakeholders and sectors, paying little attention to the broader social, cultural and institutional drivers that contribute to forest SES resilience. Further, cascade effects linking environmental, social and institutional dimensions are poorly analyzed. This restricted focus could lead to an incomplete understanding of the dynamics shaping socio-economic adaptability to windstorms, affecting long-term and sustainable recovery from extreme natural events. To correctly frame effective, intersectoral and coordinated recovery strategies gaining a deeper understanding of human–environment interactions is needed, as well as acknowledging the positive influence of causal relationships in improving forest-related SES resilience.

Community Resilience Related to Community Resources Access to Peatland in Political Ecological Perspectives: A Case Study of Purun (Eleocharis dulcis) Craftmen in Ogan Komering Ilir, South Sumatera, Indonesia

Community resilience is widely used in managing natural resources and the environment as a means of system capacity to cope with stress. However, our findings show that resilience is not easily applied to common-pool resources (CPRs) such as peatlands, which are open access and full of importance. This is experienced by the community of purun craftsmen (Eleocharis dulcis) in Ogan Komering, Ilir Regency, South Sumatra, Indonesia. This paper was conducted to determine the community's social resilience in overcoming pressures originating from environmental, socio-economic, and political changes. We used a qualitative research method with a descriptive approach and obtained data through observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation. Our findings suggest that community resilience on peatlands is influenced by mechanisms to gain and maintain access to the resource. This mechanism is relatively limited, so it can be said that it is less robust, mainly if three threat scenarios co-occur, such as massive activity by companies, weak rules for managing, utilizing, and protecting resources, and extreme weather conditions. In conclusion, from these findings, we show that “access politics” and policy implications also play an essential role in increasing the resilience of socio-ecological systems in important peatland areas.

Building resilient local tourism systems: insights from New Zealand's premier cycling attractions

ABSTRACT Using a framework based on seven principles that build resilience in socio ecological systems, this paper explores how two prominent cycle tourism attractions in New Zealand have been able to adapt to exogenous and endogenous change over several decades. The findings, based on interviews with actors involved in management and governance roles, identifies five factors that have contributed to the resilience demonstrated by these exemplar cases and notes the potential of the seven principles as a guiding framework for organisations responsible for managing or governing similar local tourism systems.

Disaster adaptation evolution and resilience mechanisms of traditional rural settlement landscape in Xinjiang, China

In consideration of the socioecological environment and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, the subject of how rural settlements can respond to disturbances and achieve sustainable development is important. From the perspective of the disaster resilience of socioecological systems, this study first identified the disaster types historically faced by rural settlements in Xinjiang, China. Then, based on the evolution of these settlements, the landscape carrier was divided into four levels: the overall village pattern, street networks, central landmarks, and special public spaces. Four stages of disaster adaptation were then identified—namely, predisaster defense, disaster impact, postdisaster recovery, and adaptation. Finally, based on the experience of disaster resilience and adaptation in traditional rural settlements, the resilience mechanism of adaptation to disasters was proposed for rural communities in Xinjiang. Specifically, the universal construction of water-conservancy facilities to adapt to disasters is key for these settlements to continuously enhance resilience, with government-guided deployment providing institutional guarantees. Moreover, the wisdom gleaned from local construction experience with disaster adaptation can further strengthen rural resilience. Finally, religious cultural norms can provide a behavioral basis for residents to organize and effectively adapt to disasters.

КОНЦЕПТ СТРЕССОУСТОЙЧИВОСТИ КАК МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД В ИЗУЧЕНИИ АККАУНТОВ ДЕПУТАТОВ КУЗБАССА В СЕТИ ВКОНТАКТЕ

The subject of the article is related to the identification of possible risk factors in the communication of Kuzbass members of the State Duma of the VIII convocation based on the case of the VKontakte social network, which affect the stress resilience of the regional political system in Kuzbass. The purpose of the article is the validation of the authors’ approach to the application of the stress resilience concept to analyzing possible risk factors in the communication of State Duma members of the VIII convocation on the VKontakte network and the identification of stabilizing factors that ensure the stability of all branches of the regional power system. The methodological basis of the study is presented by the concept of resilience, the M. Castells’s concept of the network society and the method of content analysis for studying posts and comments on the posts of deputies. The concept of stress resilience was first substantiated in the works of K. Holling in his consideration of resilience of socio-ecological systems. Russian researchers do not apply the concept of resilience widely; it is applied mainly to the consideration of international issues related to the dynamics of interaction between Russia and the states of the European Union. The first works on the impact of risk factors on the internal political processes of the regions have appeared recently, in particular, against the background of the spread of COVID-19 and under the influence of latent risks of the socio-economic development of the regions. In the course of the study, it was revealed that the accounts of Kuzbass deputies have all the signs of risk factors that not only make the posted news content unattractive, but also affect the sentiments in the region and increase the level of political inertia and apathy towards all programs and projects implemented in the region. News content is formalized, posts have features of low information content, the opinion of politicians in posts is impersonal, and comments do not fulfill its function of receiving an answer to the question posed. Forms of communication are identified as stabilizing factors that contribute to building a more “open” dialogue and exchange of opinions between politicians and network users as a tool for ensuring the sustainable development of Kuzbass

Who Has Benefited? A Socio-Ecological Chronology of Urban Resilience in the Early Reconstruction of Talca after the 27-F Earthquake, Chile 2010–2012

This article engages in the understanding of resilience from the perspective of socio-ecological systems (SES) and the reconstitution of events of recovery and reconstruction in the city of Talca after the 27-F earthquake in Chile, between 2010 and 2012. For such purposes, we have developed a chronological or timeline-analysis model. This methodology, which uses mostly ethnographic and participant-observation techniques to recapitulate these events, observes the interaction of social agents, elements of the built environment, government institutions, and other institutional functions of the urban domain within the socio-ecological panarchy. The results suggest that key events, such as local government institutional actions, the observation of probable property speculation events, and community agency efforts dismissal, among other factors, could alter both human and natural resilience processes. In turn, this could affect the capacity of this city, its inhabitants, and its social institutions to endure future crises, as a product of deteriorated and maladaptive resilience mechanisms, aside from the natural and geographical conditions of Chile, exposed to future earthquake events. Likewise, the partial loss of the civic environment in this historic city and weakened neighborhood networks, contrasting with the redevelopment of real estate in central areas, altogether portray considerable risks with regard to the (un)generated social mechanisms of resilience, affecting future developments. The final section focuses on discussing these findings and their relevance in integrating a coherent understanding of SES resilience in urban planning and governance practice, especially in cities or urban areas that are prone to natural risks or catastrophes.

A Behavioral Perspective on Community Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Paraisópolis in São Paulo, Brazil

The present article discusses the emergence and dynamics of community resilience by empirically investigating the case of the favela of Paraisópolis in São Paulo, Brazil. The emergence of innovative practices that initially contributed to significantly lower rates of COVID-19 infection and mortality when compared to the city average is described. The analytical framework combines two conceptual perspectives in the study of complex systems. First, resilience in socio-ecological systems highlights the adaptation processes characterized by an interplay of previous experience and emerging new knowledge. Second, the metacontingency framework describes the interplay between a cultural milieu, as a context for cultural practices; an aggregate product; and a selecting environment that embed the acquisition and continuity of interlocking behavioral contingencies. Research methods that combine elements of the descriptive analysis and an exploratory basic qualitative study are employed to understand how the community has self-organized during this period. The findings demonstrate how previous experience with social challenges facilitated self-organization and the emergence of innovative practices in the context of uncoordinated public health measures during the pandemic in Brazil. Furthermore, findings from interviews indicate the existence of positive feedback loops at the community level that facilitated the emergence of innovative practices. This study aims at contributing to the understanding of community resilience by identifying the geographic, psychological, and ecological factors (contextual variables) that facilitate responses to the pandemic.

Research and practice on socio-ecological systems resilience over cryosphere affected areas: progress and prospects

Research and practice on socio-ecological systems resilience over cryosphere affected areas: progress and prospects

Integrating collapse theories to understand socio-ecological systems resilience

The world is facing new environmental challenges that may trigger the collapse of some social-ecological systems (SES). More extreme weather events may be much more common in the decades to come due to climate change. Although we have an idea of what climatic events to expect in each region, we know less about how SES can cope with these challenges. We study The Peruvian Piura Basin, which has been exposed to harsh environmental events associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for centuries. The Piura basin was home to the ancient Moche civilization, which collapsed due to a combination of factors, but strong El Niño events likely played a significant role. To analyze the resilience of The Piura Basin to flood events, we used as guidance the Robustness Framework and different propositions from prominent collapse theories to carry out a longitudinal study based on both primary and collected secondary data. We found that the Piura basin is very fragile based on almost all of the predictions of collapse theories (especially with respect to selfish elites, centralized governance, systems interconnection, anticipation capacity and sensitive dependence on resources), but the biggest strength is its growing stock of social capital. In small steps, user associations have been collectively working towards solutions for water conservation and public-infrastructure maintenance. There is a long way to go, but with the right policies to encourage the strengthening of these associations, the Piura basin could become more resilient to future El Niño events. This study also provides methodological and theoretical insights that can contribute to theory building for the resilience of SES.