Reserve Currency Country Research Articles

A Study on the Exchange Rate Linkage between Korea and China following the Reform of the Yuan Exchange Rate System

Purpose - This study aims to conduct an empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility and dynamic correlation between Korea and China based on the “8.11” central exchange rate reform in China. Unlike other developed countries’ foreign exchange markets, the Chinese Yuan has not yet achieved complete free circulation, and China has an onshore Yuan exchange rate (CNY) and an offshore Yuan exchange rate (CNH). In this study, we investigated the dynamic correlation between Korea’s won exchange rate and China’s onshore yuan exchange rate and offshore yuan exchange rate around the “8.11” central exchange rate reform in China. Design/Methodology – In this study, we attempted to analyze the average and the volatility spillover effect of the won exchange rate from China’s onshore and offshore yuan exchange rate before and after the 8.11 central parity exchange rate reform. In addition, the relation between the won exchange rate and on- and off-shore yuan exchange rate at various stages were analyzed through the VAR model and the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model. Findings – The results of analyzing the volatility spillovers between the KRW exchange rate and the offshore RMB exchange rate show that there are two-way volatility spillovers between the two markets, both before and after the “8.11” central parity rate reform. The dynamic correlation between the two exchange rates (CNY and KRW, CNH and KRW) is increasing over time. In addition, the two exchange rates are positively correlated with each other, implying that the volatility of the two exchange rate markets is moving in the same direction. The dynamic dependence relations between CNY and KRW become significantly higher after the “8.11” central parity rate reform. Originality/value - As a non-international currency, the won must engage in export trade and capital market transactions with other international reserve currency countries. Therefore, it is important for Korean export-import companies and investors to explore changes in the dynamic correlation between the won and the Chinese yuan through exploration.

“Reserve currency country against its will”?

“Reserve currency country against its will”?

Would Gradual De‐Dollarization and More Financing in Local Currencies Boost Trade?

AbstractThe article summarizes arguments in favor of de‐nominating trade finance in local currencies. By reducing exposure to policy developments in reserve currency countries and improving the allocation of currency risk with the help of global currency risk markets will have a positive long‐term impact on stability, trade volumes, and growth.

A Study on the stability of international reserve currency

This article uses the dynamic analysis of the small country open economic framework (Obstfeld and Rogoff) to establish a basic supply and demand model of two countries, which solves the stable condition that the international reserve currency reaches the balance. The equilibrium stability condition of reserve currency is that the solvency growth rate of reserve currency countries is not lower than the real yield of reserve currency and the actual output growth rate of the non-reserve currency countries, while the reserve currency countries should have larger economic volume. The test of the Bretton Woods system and the contemporary international reserve currency system with stable conditions shows that the Bretton Woods system and the contemporary international reserve monetary system do not meet the stability conditions.

Short Term Inflation Determinants in Barbados

Inflation in Barbados is mainly imported. But how are external shocks transmitted to the domestic economy? Shouldn't there be also a domestic component, albeit very small, given the presence of capital controls? We focus on short term dynamics and contribute to the existing literature in three ways: (i) we identify the process with which inflation expectations are likely to be formed in Barbados; (ii) we add forward looking inflation expectations as one of the main channels through which external monetary shocks are transmitted to the economy; and (iii) we measure the importance of domestic shocks. We find that due to the peg, forward-looking inflation expectations in the reserve currency country are an important component of the inflation expectation process in Barbados and that they are a key channel in the international monetary transmission mechanism. Domestic factors, mainly monetary shocks, also matter given the limited degree of monetary autonomy provided by capital controls.

The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns

With the rapid growth of countries' foreign asset and liability positions over the last two decades, financial returns on those positions ('NFA returns') have become material drivers of current accounts and net stock positions. This paper documents the relative importance of NFA return versus trade channels in driving NFA dynamics, for a sample of 52 economies over 1990-2015. While persistent trade imbalances have been a strong force leading to diverging NFA positions, NFA returns have played an important stabilizing role, mitigating NFA divergence. The stabilizing role of NFA returns primarily reflects the response of asset prices, rather than yield differentials or exchange rates. There is also evidence of heterogeneity in the speed of NFA adjustment, with emerging market economies adjusting more rapidly than advanced economies, and reserve-currency countries adjusting more slowly than others. The paper also documents the role of NFA returns as insurance against domestic and global income shocks, with a focus on reserve-currency countries.

Is the Eurozone Not a Monetary Union, But an Extraordinary Exchange Rate Union?

The Target imbalances within the Eurozone can be interpreted as a sign of a missing balance of payments adjustment mechanism for the member countries. As the Eurozone lacks a fiscal union, in economic theory it is more an exchange rate union or a system of fixed exchange rates than a monetary union. In the latter, there would not be any national balances of payments, but only one for the whole Eurozone. This paper will show why the Target System is a crucial indicator for the Eurozone not being a monetary union, but an exchange rate union and why countries holding Target liabilities against the European System of Central Banks can be compared to a reserve currency country, e.g. like the US during the Bretton-Woods-System.

Modelling the Eurozone as an Extraordinary Exchange Rate Union

The Trans-European Automated Real-Time Gross settlement Express Transfer system (TARGET) imbalances within the Eurozone can be interpreted as a sign of a missing balance of payments adjustment mechanism for the member countries. As the Eurozone lacks a fiscal union, in theory it is more of an exchange rate union or a system of fixed exchange rates than a monetary union. This paper will show why the TARGET is a crucial indicator for the Eurozone not being a monetary union but instead an exchange rate union, and why countries holding TARGET liabilities against the European System of Central Banks can be compared to a reserve currency country, like the US under the Bretton-Woods System.

Reserve accumulation and financial crises: From individual protection to systemic risk

This paper provides a new perspective on the relationship between countries׳ international reserve holdings and financial crises: while the “local” view holds that reserves may prevent domestic crises, it overlooks that the accumulation of reserves relaxes the financing constraint of the reserve currency country and may cause a financial crisis in the centre, which is transmitted globally. According to this “global” view reserve accumulation might destabilize the international financial system. Since the crisis affects all countries alike, the accumulation of reserves imposes a negative externality on non-accumulating countries.We integrate this idea in a theoretical model of the optimal amount of reserves and illustrate the gap between local and global optimality: the consideration of systemic risk lowers the demand for reserves. Moreover, if a supranational authority determines the optimal level of reserves, it internalizes the negative externality and accumulates fewer reserves. A macroprudential tax on reserve hoardings might implement the socially optimal solution. Our calibration analysis shows that these considerations are economically significant: they lower the optimal amount of reserves in the benchmark case by 45%.

Western European inflation and the reserve currencies

The article is a text read and discussed at Chatham House, London, in February 1968. The author establishes to what extent and in what ways British monetary policies, and those of the other main reserve currency countries, have interacted with the European Economic Community’s. The analysis is confined to the years following the return to convertibility, starting with 1959 and ending with 1966. Two extreme lines of thought are distinguished, which are so far removed the one from the other as to leave a very wide field of opinion in between. At one extreme, there is the school of thought that maintains that the reserve currency countries have been exporting inflation. At the other extreme, it is claimed that they have been importing, if not actual deflation, at least certain deflationary impulses from the non-reserve currency countries, mainly those in continental Western Europe. The evidence might show that the same kind of impulses emanated from both sets of countries, and that the difference between them was only one of degree.

A Crisis Transmission Channel for Reserve Currency Countries: A Cautionary Tale

World financial markets have been in turmoil as investors grapple with the possibility that Greece and perhaps Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain will default on their debts. The 2011 downgrade of the S&P outlook for US debt to “negative” suggests that there may eventually be concerns that the US will go the way of Europe. The paper studies possible transmission effects of a crisis for reserve-currency debt which may occur via central bank holdings of reserve-currency debt.

Internationalization of the renminbi: what it means for the stability and flexibility of the international monetary system

The central question this paper addresses is whether internationalization of the RMB would be sufficient for the international monetary system (IMS) to provide greater stability and flexibility than today’s IMS. Whether Chinese efforts to internationalize the RMB culminate in the currency achieving reserve status will be for China to realize. The path to reserve currency status, however, is not one that the Chinese can pursue unilaterally. Internationalization entails an interaction between private and public decision-making, and is a function of private-sector confidence as much as public policy. The outcome will be the result of strategic interplay involving public policies across systemically important countries and confidence-building among global savers and investors. The paper argues that international cooperation, especially among reserve currency countries on policy frameworks to achieve the common objectives of economic growth, full employment, price stability, and sustainable fiscal positions will define a coherent and well-functioning IMS.

Central Banking in an Era of Quantitative Easing

This paper compares central banking in the era of Bagehot’s Rule (1873) and the current era of quantitative easing (QE) and zero (or near-zero) interest rate policy (ZIRP) to suggest that our analytical frameworks need updating. It also proposes some rules for emerging-market central banks to follow today. Bagehot’s Rule — that in a financial crisis, the central bank should lend freely against good collateral, and at market interest rates — can no longer apply in an age when the gold standard has been abandoned, hard budget constraints have disappeared, and the national perspective of central banks limits their ability to regulate a shadow banking system that is global in nature. Central ban s in reserve currency countries have used QE and ZIRP because the political will to stem excess consumption and raise taxation is lacking. Central banks in emerging markets might avoid the domestic collectiveaction traps that the deficit countries have fallen into by applying a systems-wide analytical perspective. This would involve privileging diversity, imposing a strict limitation on concentration, the promotion and regulation of the commons, and increased taxation.

LESSONS FROM ARGENTINA’S CURRENCY BOARD SYSTEM FOR INDONESIA

The purpose of this study is to attempt to draw lessons from Argentina’s Currency Board System (CBS) for Indonesia. Moreover, this study reviews Argentina’s economic performance before and after the implementation of the CBS, through an examination of some macroeconomic indicators namely real GDP growth, interest rates, money and inflation, as well as fiscal condition. The first three indicators are compared to the US, as the reserve-currency country, and Indonesia. The last indicator is compared to Indonesia only.In summary, the study found that after the adoption of the CBS the economic growth of Argentina substantially improved. The real interest rate tended to converge with the US interest rate, and the inflation rate that is linked to money growth was brought down to a low level close to the US inflation rate. However, this study also produced some more important findings. First, the long-run sustainability of Argentina’s economic growth with its CBS is questionable. Second, the real interest rate convergence was broken due to high default risk and deflationary expectations in Argentina. Third, low inflation later on turned to deflation as a consequence of the overvalued nominal exchange rate. Fourth, lack of sound fiscal policy and weak fiscal performance undermined the CBS regime. Finally, the study suggests that the absence of a lender of last resort is an institutional weakness of the CBS.

The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements

This paper studies the evolution of exchange rate arrangements of almost all countries in the world over the period 1970–1996. It examines both officially reported and empirically observed exchange rate arrangements. Several findings are obtained. First, the relative economic size of countries under fixed exchange rate regimes has not declined as dramatically as the measure based on reported arrangements would indicate. Second, the U.S. dollar has been the most dominant, global anchor currency because many developing economies, particularly those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, have attempted to stabilize their exchange rates to the dollar. Third, the reserve currency composition is determined by the constructed measure of the net currency-area size in addition to the own-economic size of the reserve currency country. Fourth, as a result of the transition to the final stage of EMU, the euro is expected to emerge as the world's second most dominant anchor currency. While the Japanese yen will continue to play a less significant role as nominal anchor, its role in East Asia is expected to rise gradually.J. Japan. Int. Econ.December 1998,12(4), pp. 334–387. World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433 and Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F31, F33, F36.

Monetary interdependence between the United States and United Kingdom under alternative exchange rate regimes

The issue of monetary interdependence between the reserve-currency country (US) and the non-reserve-currency country (UK) is investigated under fixed and flexible exchange rate periods. For the fixed rate period, our investigations show that there existed monetary interdependence between the US and UK. For the flexible rate period, the results are sensitive to the definition of money used in the model. Some of our results indicate that US monetary action has no impact on UK money and income, whereas the others confirm the currency substitution argument that significant monetary interdependence is found between the US and UK. The empirical results do not show the striking contrast between fixed and flexible rate regimes which one might expect from the theory. The most striking result is that there was substantial and consistent causal influence from British incomes and money to US incomes and money in both time periods, while the influence in the opposite direction was consistently smaller.

The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves

This study examines the determinants of the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves for both industrial and developing countries. During the period from 1976-85, our empirical results indicate that the currency composition of reserves has been influenced by each country`s exchange rate arrangements, its trade flows with reserve currency countries, and the currency of denomination of its debt-service payments. The evidence is consistent with the view that managing the currency composition of a country`s net foreign asset position is done more cheaply by altering the currency of denomination of assets and liabilities that are not held as reserve assets.

A NEW TEST OF THE BUFFER STOCK MONEY HYPOTHESIS *

The author finds strong evidence for a buffer stock role for money balances using Irish data. The results obtained are not subject to the criticisms made by MacKinnon and Milbourne (1984) in relation to previous attempts to test the cash balance as shock absorber hypothesis by Laidler (1980) and Carr and Darby (1981). This is for two reasons: firstly, emphasis is laid on the role of the reserve currency country (here the United Kingdom) rather than the small open economy itself (Ireland) as the primary money creator for the latter and, secondly, added to this, the use of an empirical approach which avoids the econometric pitfall dealt with by MacKinnon and Milbourne. Copyright 1989 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves

This study examines the determinants of the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves for both industrial and developing countries. During the period from 1976-85, our empirical results indicate that the currency composition of reserves has been influenced by each country`s exchange rate arrangements, its trade flows with reserve currency countries, and the currency of denomination of its debt-service payments. The evidence is consistent with the view that managing the currency composition of a country`s net foreign asset position is done more cheaply by altering the currency of denomination of assets and liabilities that are not held as reserve assets.

The international transmission of inflation to a small open economy under fixed exchange rates and highly interest-sensitive capital flows: An Empirical Analysis

This paper deals with the international transmission of inflation to a small open economy (SOE) under fixed exchange rates and facing very interest sensitive capital flows. It focuses particular attention on a channel of transmission which has been hitherto largely ignored, namely portfolio capital flows arising from the monetary policy actions of the SOE's reserve currency country (RCC). The bulk of the existing literature on this topic regards portfolio capital flows, and money in general, as having no causative role but simply passively mirroring transmission through commodity markets. The model obtains strong support for Ireland from 1972 to 1979 during which the IR£ was maintained in a strict one-for-one parity with the £stg.