Republican Vote Share Research Articles

Section 301 and Politics: Analysis of Tariff Exemptions

Section 301 tariffs were imposed as a consequence of China's discriminatory business practices against American firms. However, domestic American firms who rely on Chinese imports are now faced with paying for these tariffs. In response, the Trump administration allowed the affected firms to apply for a tariff exclusions. In this paper, we investigate the factors affecting the approval rates for these tariff exclusions. We find that an increase in county Republican vote share by 10 percentage points results in a 10% increase in probability of tariff exclusion approval.

The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States

We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter's rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congress elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and a text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter's relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.

The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States

We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter's rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congress elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and a text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter's relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.

A Machine Learning Approach for Forecasting US Presidential Election

In this paper, we develop and compare two models for forecasting the 2020 U.S. presidential election using multiple linear regressions (MLR) and the Machine Learning method of Extreme Gradient Boosting (xgboost). We predict each state’s Republican vote share using seven continuous predictors from 1976-2016, as well as dummy columns for each state. After computing 95% confidence intervals for each prediction, we determine the candidates’ electoral college probabilities. The xgboost appears to be a very strong predictor, accounting for 98.6% of the variance with a 3.34% root mean square error (RMSE), whereas the MLR only accounts for 71.8% of the variance and leaves an RMSE of 6.35%. We observe that 1) both models predict a Democratic electoral college landslide in the 2020 elections, 2) Georgia, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are crucial for the Republicans to win, and 3) Extreme Gradient Boosting is an attractive alternative to MLR in election forecasting.

Social capital determinants and labor market networks

AbstractWe explore the links between determinants of social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer–employee data with which we measure the strength of labor market networks, data on neighborhood homogeneity that has previously been tied to social capital, and new data—not previously used in the study of social capital—on the number and location of nonprofit sector establishments at the neighborhood level. We use a machine learning algorithm to identify the potential determinants of social capital that best predict neighborhood‐level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds local labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of nonprofit‐oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, fire and rescue services including volunteer fire departments, country clubs and golf courses, labor unions, chamber music groups, hobby clubs, and schools.

Virus, Partisanship, and Guns

Gun demand in the United States surged during COVID-19 pandemic. Combining multiple data sets including phone location, federal firearm licenses, Google trends, and county-level votes, this study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Americans’ gun demand, which is approximated by gun shop visits. This paper shows that the increase in gun shop visits is highly correlated with the evolution of the pandemic. It highlights that people with different partisan inclinations behaved differently in gun purchases. Counties with a higher Republican vote share have witnessed greater increases in gun shop visits relative to those with a lower Republican vote share. This paper also identifies less coronavirus risk avoidance for Republicans as the mechanism of increase in gun demand. Our findings suggest that policy interventions such as targeting more tailored preventive messages towards specific populations can work as a nudge.

Decomposing US Political Ideology: Local Labor Market Polarization and Race in the 2016 Presidential Election

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign highlighted protectionism of US-born workers at a time of growing income inequality, racial tensions, and labor market polarization. Our study investigates if and how voters’ life circumstances affected election behavior between 2012 and 2016, and how voter behavior relates to compositional versus structural change of communities. We relate changes in the Republican vote share between 2012 and 2016 to demographic and economic characteristics of US counties and to rates of return (in terms of vote share) to these characteristics. We find that structural change in how local-level community attributes (most especially race) affect elections played a greater role between 2012 and 2016 than did differences in these community characteristics themselves. We find this more pronounced in battleground states, and in the presidential race as opposed to congressional ones.

Decomposing U.S. Political Ideology: Local Labor Market Polarization and Race in the 2016 Presidential Election

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign highlighted protectionism of U.S.-born workers at a time of growing income inequality, racial tensions, and labor market polarization. Our study investigates if and how voters' life circumstances affected election behavior between 2012 and 2016, and how voter behavior relates to compositional versus structural change of communities. We relate changes in the Republican vote share between 2012 and 2016 to demographic and economic characteristics of U.S. counties and to rates of return (in terms of vote share) to these characteristics. We find that structural change in how local-level community attributes (most especially race) affect elections played a greater role between 2012 and 2016 than did differences in these community characteristics themselves. We find this more pronounced in battleground states, and in the presidential race as opposed to congressional ones.

Electoral Response to the Decline of Coal Mining in the United States

Replacing coal with cleaner energy carriers is a crucial lever to reach the Paris climate targets. However, as coal decline results in local job loss, political backlash might arise, jeopardizing the clean energy transition. Yet, we lack evidence on whether such backlash exists. Here, we analyze the electoral response to coal mining job losses in the United States presidential elections from 2000 to 2016 in a panel regression and a matched difference-in-difference setting. Our results suggest an electoral response in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections specific to the loss of coal mining jobs. We estimate an increased Republican vote share of 1.2 pp in 2012 and 1.5 pp in 2016 for each 100 coal mining jobs lost. The estimated electoral response is thus almost five times as large as the numbers of jobs lost. We observe this response only in places with large job losses, where these jobs account for a large share of locally available jobs and where income levels are low. Existing relative party strengths, however, do not influence the results. Moreover, we find a spillover effect of 2.2 pp in 2016 into counties within 50 km of those affected by coal decline. We discuss the implications of these findings for coal phase-outs worldwide.

Polarization, Participation, and Premiums: How Political Behavior Helps Explain Where the ACA Works, and Where It Doesn't.

Political partisanship can influence whether individuals enroll in government programs. In particular, Republicans, ceteris paribus, are less likely to enroll in Affordable Care Act (ACA) individual marketplace insurance than Democrats. The logic of adverse selection suggests low uptake among Republicans would generally put upward pressure on marketplace premiums, especially in geographic areas with more Republican partisans. Using data from Healthcare.gov at the rating area level, this article examines the association between Republican vote share and growth in ACA marketplace premiums, being careful to account for potential confounding variables. Insurers have increased marketplace premiums at higher rates in areas with more Republican voters. In the preferred model specification, a 10-percentage-point difference in Republican vote share is associated with a 3.2-percentage-point increase in average premium growth for a standard plan. A variety of robustness and placebo checks suggest the relationship is driven by partisanship. Partisan polarization can threaten the successful implementation of policies that rely on high levels of citizen participation.

Bean Counters: The Effect of Soy Tariffs on Change in Republican Vote Share between the 2016 and 2018 Elections

How do trade wars affect voting for the president’s party? President Trump’s aggressive tariffs on China, despite his largely rural electoral support base, provide a unique opportunity to analyze t...

Exploring the Relationship Between Housing Downturns and Partisan Elections: Neighborhood-Level Evidence from Maricopa County, Arizona

An understudied outcome of foreclosure crises is how their aftershocks affect partisan elections. Two hypotheses are that partisan shifts may occur in neighborhoods with concentrated foreclosures because of (1) declines in turnout among liberal leaning voters or (2) swells of anti-incumbency among all voters. This research explores these hypotheses in Maricopa County, Arizona, by using econometric modeling to uncover associations among neighborhood foreclosures, voter turnout, and changes in the Republican vote share between the 2006 and the 2010 Arizona gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. Our results show evidence of (1) anti-incumbent voting behavior and more liberal shifts among neighborhoods harder hit by foreclosures and (2) conservative shifts in neighborhoods experiencing African-American and Latinx population growth. These findings are suggestive of a link between neighborhood housing market distress and neighborhood partisan shifts, which in aggregate may shape state and national policymaking and future neighborhood conditions.

Political orientation, political environment, and health behaviors in the United States

Political orientation (Republican/Democrat and conservative/liberal) and political environment (geo-spatial political party affiliated voting patterns) are both associated with various health outcomes, including mortality. Modern disease etiology in the U.S. suggests that many of our health outcomes derive from behaviors and lifestyle choices. Thus, we examine the associations of political orientation and political environment with health behaviors. We used the Annenberg National Health Communication Survey (ANHCS) data, which is a nationally representative U.S. survey fielded continuously from 2005 through 2012. The health behaviors studied include health information search, flu vaccination, excessive alcohol consumption, tobacco consumption, exercise, and dietary patterns. Democrats/liberals had higher odds of cigarette smoking and excessive drinking compared to Republicans/conservatives. Whereas, Republicans/conservatives ate fewer servings and fewer varieties of fruit and vegetables; ate more high fat and processed foods; and engaged in less in-depth health information searches compared to Democrats/liberals. Also, conservatives had lower odds of exercise participation than liberals; whereas Republicans had lower odds of flu vaccination. Greater Republican vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections at the state and/or county levels was associated with higher odds of flu vaccination and smoking cigarettes and lower odds of avoiding fat/calories, avoiding fast/processed food, eating a variety of fruits and vegetables, and eating more servings of fruit. We use the distinct cognitive-motivational styles attributed to political orientation in discussing the findings. Health communication strategies could leverage these relationships to produce tailored and targeted messages as well as to develop and advocate for policy.

The politics of place: Presidential voting patterns and providers' prescription of emergency contraception

ObjectiveThe most effective forms of emergency contraception (EC) require a prescription or a medical procedure; therefore, provider willingness to offer EC remains critical to patient access. This study seeks to assess whether political alignment of a provider's county is associated with provider attitudes and behaviors regarding EC. Study designWe analyzed survey data collected from 1313 healthcare providers from February 2013 to April 2014 at 14 academic medical centers in the United States. Using logistic regression, we estimated associations between the county political alignment of a provider's practice and his or her EC-related beliefs and practices: 1) if the provider is aware of the most effective EC methods; 2) if knowing that a hypothetical EC method prevented implantation would make a provider less likely to prescribe that method because of personal ethical or religious reasons; and 3) if the provider prescribes any form of EC in his or her practice. ResultsIn multivariate models, a one percentage-point increase in county Republican vote share was associated with a 2.9% decrease in the odds of a provider prescribing EC, after accounting for provider knowledge and attitudes about EC. ConclusionsEC provides a critical last chance to prevent pregnancy after unprotected sex, yet women living in Republican-leaning counties may face difficulty obtaining EC from healthcare providers. Programs seeking to improve access to EC should focus on areas likely to have fewer providers willing to prescribe EC, which may be those that are more Republican-leaning. ImplicationsThe most effective forms of emergency contraception require a prescription or a medical procedure; therefore, provider willingness to offer EC remains critical to patient access. Women living in Republican-leaning counties may face difficulty obtaining emergency contraception from healthcare providers.

Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election.

To assess whether voting patterns in the 2016 US presidential election were correlated with long-run trends in county life expectancy. I examined county-level voting data from the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections and assessed Donald Trump's share of the 2016 vote, change in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016, and changes in absolute numbers of Democratic and Republican votes. County-level estimates of life expectancy at birth were obtained for 1980 and 2014 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Changes in county life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 were strongly negatively associated with Trump's vote share, with less support for Trump in counties experiencing greater survival gains. Counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined saw a 10-percentage-point increase in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016. Residents of counties left out from broader life expectancy gains abandoned the Democratic Party in the 2016 presidential election. Since coming to power, the Trump administration has proposed cuts to health insurance for the poor, social programs, health research, and environmental and worker protections, which are key determinants of population health. Health gaps likely will continue to widen without significant public investment in population health.

Manufacturing and the 2016 Election: An Analysis of US Presidential Election Data

Much of the public discourse and media analysis of the surprise outcome of the 2016 US presidential election has emphasized the role of manufacturing workers. This paper examines the importance of manufacturing jobs and job loss as determinants of voting patterns using county-level voting data from recent presidential elections. The share of employment in the manufacturing sector and long-run manufacturing job loss at the county level are not statistically significant in explaining the change in Republican vote shares from 2012 to 2016, when controlling for standard voting determinants. However, the change in the Republican vote share is positively correlated with manufacturing in predominantly white counties and negatively correlated with manufacturing in ethnically diverse counties, with these effects roughly offsetting each other. The paper further shows that this polarization between white and nonwhite manufacturing counties is more closely associated with polarizing candidates than a polarized electorate.

The 2008 Election: A Preregistered Replication Analysis

ABSTRACTWe present an increasingly stringent set of replications, a multilevel regression and poststratification analysis of polls from the 2008 U.S. presidential election campaign, focusing on a set of plots showing the estimated Republican vote share for whites and for all voters, as a function of income level in each of the states. We start with a nearly exact duplication that uses the posted code and changes only the model-fitting algorithm; we then replicate using already-analyzed data from 2004; and finally we set up preregistered replications using two surveys from 2008 that we had not previously looked at. We have already learned from our preliminary, nonpreregistered replication, which has revealed a potential problem with the earlier published analysis; it appears that our model may not sufficiently account for nonsampling error, and that some of the patterns presented in that earlier article may simply reflect noise. In addition to the substantive interest in validating earlier findings about demographics, geography, and voting, the present project serves as a demonstration of preregistration in a setting where the subject matter is historical (and thus the replication data exist before the preregistration plan is written) and where the analysis is exploratory (and thus a replication cannot be simply deemed successful or unsuccessful based on the statistical significance of some particular comparison). Our replication analysis produced graphs that showed the same general pattern of income and voting as we had found in our earlier published work, but with some differences in particular states that we cannot easily explain and which seem too large to be explained by sampling variation. This process thus demonstrates how replication can raise concerns about an earlier published result.

Immigration to the U.S.: A Problem for the Republicans or the Democrats?

We empirically analyze the impact of immigration to the U.S. on the share of votes to the Republicans and Democrats between 1994 and 2012. Our analysis is based on variation across states and years – using data from the Current Population Survey merged with election data – and addresses the endogeneity of immigrant flows using a novel set of instruments. On average across election types, immigration to the U.S. has a significant and negative impact on the Republican vote share, consistent with the typical view of political analysts in the U.S. This average effect – which is driven by elections in the House – works through two main channels. The impact of immigration on Republican votes in the House is negative when the share of naturalized migrants in the voting population increases. Yet, it can be positive when the share of non-citizen migrants out of the population goes up and the size of migration makes it a salient policy issue in voters' minds. These results are consistent with naturalized migrants being less likely to vote for the Republican party than native voters and with native voters' political preferences moving towards the Republican party because of high immigration of non-citizens. This second effect, however, is significant only for very high levels of immigrant presence.

The Influence of Political Dynamics on Southern Lynch Mob Formation and Lethality

Existing literature focuses on economic competition as the primary causal factor in Southern lynching. Political drivers have been neglected, as findings on their effects have been inconclusive. We show that these consensus views arise from selection on a contingent outcome variable: whether mobs intent on lynching succeed. We constructed an inventory of averted lynching events in Georgia, Mississippi, and North Carolina—instances in which lynch mobs formed but were thwarted, primarily by law enforcement. We combined these with an inventory of lynching and analyzed them together to model the dynamics of mob formation, success, and intervention. We found that low Republican vote share is associated with a higher lethality rate for mobs. Lynching is better understood as embedded in a post-conflict political system, wherein all potential lynching events, passing through the prism of intervention, are split into successful and averted cases.

Red State/Blue State Divisions in the 2012 Presidential Election

The so-called “red/blue paradox” is that rich individuals are more likely to vote Republican but rich states are more likely to support the Democrats. Previous research argued that this seeming paradox could be explained by comparing rich and poor voters within each state – the difference in the Republican vote share between rich and poor voters was much larger in low-income, conservative, middle-American states like Mississippi than in high-income, liberal, coastal states like Connecticut. We use exit poll and other survey data to assess whether this was still the case for the 2012 Presidential election. Based on this preliminary analysis, we find that, while the red/blue paradox is still strong, the explanation offered by Gelman et al. no longer appears to hold. We explore several empirical patterns from this election and suggest possible avenues for resolving the questions posed by the new data.