Reproduction Number Research Articles

Toxicity and Sublethal Effect of Chlorantraniliprole on Multiple Generations of Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae).

Due to the quick development of insecticide resistance, it is crucial to optimize management programs by understanding the sublethal effects of effective insecticides like chlorantraniliprole on Aedes aegypti L. populations. Using age-stage and two-sex life tables, we investigated the sublethal impacts of chlorantraniliprole on Ae. aegypti. Larval duration in the progeny of exposed parents was reduced by 0.33-0.42 days, whereas, the longevity of male and female adults was decreased by 1.43-3.05 days. Similarly, the egg-laying capacity of F1 and F2 progeny of the exposed parents was significantly reduced from 27.3% to 41.2%. The mean generation time (T) increased up to 11.8% in exposed populations, and the net reproduction rate (Ro) decreased by 51.50-55.60%. After 24 h of chlorantraniliprole treatment, there was a significant increase in cytochrome P450 activity. Contrarily, the activity of glutathione S-transferase (GST) initially declined but started increasing after 48 h of treatment. This research highlights the importance of chlorantraniliprole in mosquito management, as well as the importance of considering sublethal effects when developing strategies to handle them. Having a thorough understanding of the harmful effects of insecticides on mosquito populations can greatly enhance the effectiveness of insecticide-based interventions, while also minimizing the risk of pest resurgence.

EFFECTS OF PUBLIC AWARENESS AND VACCINATION IN MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF MONKEY-POX TRANSMISSION DISEASE IN NIGERIA

Monkey-pox disease is recognized as pathogens, disturbing animals and humans, it is among the family of orthopox virus and the disease causes lymph nodes to swell. In this paper, we developed a deterministic model system for Monkey pox infection by incorporating public awareness parameter and vaccination individual. The study verified the feasible region of the system equations and non-negativity of the solutions is achieved. The disease free and endemic equilibrium states have been obtained. The study computed and analyzed the reproduction number, of the system equations. The study presented and analysed, the global stability of disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium state, it has been found that when there is no transmission between human and non-human (), then meaning it is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) at DFE and using nonlinear lyapunov function, the study shows that the endemic equilibrium state is GAS if and unstable if by comparison method of lyapunov functions. Numerical Simulations were done, it was found that the effective reproduction number decreases as vaccination of individual increases, varying the public awareness, the effective reproduction number reduces to zero and becomes stable as public awareness increases. It was discovered that effective reproduction number decreases as public awareness increases.

Modeling and analysis of transmission dynamics of tuberculosis with preventive treatment and vaccination strategies in China

In China, approximately 350 million people with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are the major source of new TB cases, meanwhile, BCG vaccination for newborns and children under five fails to fully arrest the TB epidemic due to the mechanisms of vaccine failure. It is expected that widespread TB preventive treatment (TPT) and new vaccination strategies may be solutions to end TB. This work allows for TPT and vaccination strategies in a nonlinear age-structured SVEIR model with nonexponential residence times to exploit the interventions for ending TB in China. Global stability analysis reveals that the target model preserves the threshold-value dynamics in terms of the basic reproduction number so that some existing results are extended, moreover, the model is applied to fit the data of TB cases in China. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis for endemic steady state suggests that four potentially feasible interventions (i.e., amplifying the inhibition effect of infectious individuals by limiting range of their mobility, shortening the treatment duration for patients, adopting BCG revaccination and enhancing the rate of TPT) can lower the steady level of infectious individuals at endemic steady state and delay its arrival time. Finally, several multifaceted strategies composed of these interventions are compared via emulational experiments. We conclude that the target of End TB Strategy by 2035 in China would be reached just by the multifaceted strategy with moderate intensity if BCG revaccination, the duration of TPT for 2 months and a 40% completion rate are realized. This investigation sheds light on the fantastic potential applications of new TPT and vaccination strategies.

A metapopulation model with exit screening measure for the 2014–2016 West Africa Ebola virus outbreak

We construct a new metapopulation model for the transmission dynamics and control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in an environment characterized by considerable migrations and travels of people. It is an extended SEIR model modified by the addition of Quarantine and Isolated compartments to account for travelers who undergo the exit screening. The model is well-fitted by using the reported cases from the neighboring countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone where the 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak simultaneously arose. We show that the unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE) of the model is unstable or locally asymptotically stable (LAS) depending on whether the control reproduction number is larger or less than unity. In the latter case, we prove that the DFE is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) provided that the exit screening is 100% negative. We also prove the GAS of the DFE by introducing more explicit thresholds, thanks to which the existence of at least one boundary equilibrium is established. We design two new nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) schemes, which preserve the dynamics of the continuous model. Numerical simulations that support the theory highlight that exit screening is useful to mitigate the infection. They also suggest that the disease is controlled or the explicit threshold is less than unity provided that the migration and the exit screening parameters are above a critical value.

A dynamical optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness analyses of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model.

Studies have shown that the co-infection of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) poses a major threat to the public health due to their combined negative impacts on health and increased risk of complications. Even though, some scholars formulated and analyzed the HBV and HIV co-infection model they did not consider the compartment that contains protected individuals against both HBV and HIV infections. They incorporated the optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness analysis simultaneously. With this in mind, we are motivated to formulate and analyze the HBV and HIV co-infection model, considering the protected group and incorporating optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness. In this study, we have theoretically computed all of the models disease-free equilibrium points, all the models effective reproduction numbers and unique endemic equilibrium points. The two sub-models disease-free equilibrium points are locally as well as globally asymptotically stable whenever their associated effective reproduction numbers are less than one. We reformulated the optimal control problem by incorporating five time-dependent control measures and conducted its theoretical analysis by utilizing the Pontryagin's maximum principle. Using the fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical method and MATLAB ODE45, we performed the numerical simulations with various combinations of control efforts to verify the theoretical results and investigate the impacts of the suggested protection and treatment control strategies for both the HBV and HIV diseases. Also, we carried out a cost-effectiveness analysis of the proposed control strategies. Eventually, we compared our model results with other researcher similar model results whenever cost-effectiveness analysis is not carried out the findings of this particular study suggest that implementing each of the proposed control strategies simultaneously has a high potential to reduce and control the spread of HBV and HIV co-infections in the community. According to the cost-effectiveness analysis, implementing the HBV treatment and the HIV and HBV co-infection treatment measures has a high potential effect on reducing and controlling the HBV and HIV co-infection transmission problem in the community.

Ornamental Plant Growth in Different Culture Conditions and Fluoride and Chloride Removals with Constructed Wetlands

Natural water resources often contain fluorides and chlorides due to wastewater discharge; however, excessive exposure to fluorides can pose health risks to humans. Elevated chloride levels can negatively affect aquatic fauna and disrupt the reproductive rates of plants. This study assessed constructed wetlands (CWs) featuring monocultures (including Canna hybrid, Alpinia purpurata, and Hedychium coronarium) and polycultures (combinations of species from the monoculture systems) of ornamental plants (OPs) to evaluate their efficiency in removing fluorides and chlorides. The results revealed that the ornamental plants flourished in the CW conditions without sustaining any physical damage. C. hybrid demonstrated the longest roots and the highest volume, as well as greater height compared to other species. However, this did not affect the ion removal efficiency. In polyculture systems, 42.2 ± 8.8% of fluoride was removed, a result that was not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the removal rates observed in monocultures of C. hybrid (42.5 ± 7.5%), H. coronarium (36.8 ± 7.0%), or A. purpurata (30.7 ± 7.9%). For chloride, a similar pattern emerged, with 32.4 ± 4.8% removed in constructed wetlands (CWs) using a polyculture of ornamental plants, a figure that was also not significantly different (p > 0.05) from the removal percentages in monocultures of C. hybrid (29.1 ± 5.3%), H. coronarium (28.1 ± 5.0%), or A. purpurata (32.0 ± 5.7%). Our results indicate that CWs with polyculture species contribute to pollutant removal at levels comparable to those found in monoculture systems. However, polyculture systems offer enhanced aesthetic appeal and biodiversity, incorporating various ornamental flowering plants. The use of this eco-technology for removing fluoride and chloride pollutants helps prevent river contamination and associated health issues.

Side effects of insecticides used for management of Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechidae) on the biocontrol agent Trichogramma brassicae Bezdenko (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae)

Trichogramma brassicae is one of the most important egg parasitoids of many pests including South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae). In agrosystems, the function of parasitoids can be affected by the application of insecticides. To use biological control agents and pesticides simultaneously in pest management, it is necessary to know the potential effect of pesticides on biological control agents. In this study, the lethal and sublethal effects of four insecticides (flubendiamide, emamectin benzoate + lufenuron, thiocyclam, and spinosad) frequently used to control T. absoluta, were investigated on its parasitoid Trichogramma Brassicae Bezdenko (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae), under controlled laboratory conditions. The results showed that spinosad with an LC50 value of 0.73 mg a.i./ L was highly toxic against adults of T. brassicae in comparison to flubendiamide (4.09 mg a.i./ L), emamectin benzoate + lufenuron (4.17 mg a.i./ L), and thiocyclam (9.59 mg a.i./ L). Furthermore, key demographic parameters such as net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of increase (rm), mean generation time (T), and doubling time (DT) were significantly decreased after exposure of T. brassicae to the LC30s of spinosad, thiocyclam, flubendiamide, and emamectin benzoate + lufenuron compared to the control. In the light of our results, the four insecticides should be used cautiously in T. absoluta integrated management programs. While the thiocyclam can be combined with the T. brassicae, the flubendiamide and emamectin benzoate + lufenuron are not recommended in the presence of this parasitoid. The use of spinosad should be avoided concomitantly with the release of T. brassicae.

Correcting for Replicated Genotypes May Introduce More Problems Than it Solves.

Across the tree of life, many organisms are able to reproduce clonally, via vegetative spread, budding or parthenogenesis. In population genetic analyses of clonally reproducing organisms, it is common practice to retain only a single representative per multilocus genotype. Though this practice of clone correction is widespread, the theoretical justification behind it has been very little studied. Here, I use individual-based simulations to study the effect of clone correction on the estimation of the genetic summary statistics HO, HS, FIS, FST, F''ST and Dest. The simulations follow the standard finite island model, consisting of a set of populations connected by gene flow, but with a variable rate of sexual versus asexual reproduction. The results of the simulations show that by itself, the inclusion of replicated genotypes does not lead to a deviation in the values of the summary statistics, except when the rate of sexual reproduction is less than about one in thousand. However, clone correction can introduce a strong deviation in the values of most of the statistics, when compared to a scenario of full sexual reproduction. For HS and FIS, this deviation can be informative about the process of asexual reproduction, but for FST, F''ST and Dest, clone correction can lead to incorrect conclusions. I therefore argue that clone correction is not strictly necessary, but can in some cases be insightful. However, when clone correction is applied, it is imperative that results for both the corrected and uncorrected data are presented.

A conformable fractional finite difference method for modified mathematical modeling of SAR-CoV-2 (COVID-19) disease.

In this research, the ongoing COVID-19 disease by considering the vaccination strategies into mathematical models is discussed. A modified and comprehensive mathematical model that captures the complex relationships between various population compartments, including susceptible (Sα), exposed (Eα), infected (Uα), quarantined (Qα), vaccinated (Vα), and recovered (Rα) individuals. Using conformable derivatives, a system of equations that precisely captures the complex interconnections inside the COVID-19 transmission. The basic reproduction number (R0), which is an essential indicator of disease transmission, is the subject of investigation calculating using the next-generation matrix approach. We also compute the R0 sensitivity indices, which offer important information about the relative influence of various factors on the overall dynamics. Local stability and global stability of R0 have been proved at a disease-free equilibrium point. By designing the finite difference approach of the conformable fractional derivative using the Taylor series. The present methodology provides us highly accurate convergence of the obtained solution. Present research fills research addresses the understanding gap between conceptual frameworks and real-world implementations, demonstrating the vaccination therapy's significant possibilities in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population genetics of the freshwater red alga Batrachospermum gelatinosum (Rhodophyta) I: Frequent intragametophytic selfing in a monoicous, haploid-diploid species.

Life cycles with a prolonged haploid phase are thought to be correlated with greater rates of selfing and asexual reproduction. In red algae, recent population genetic studies have aimed to test this prediction but have mostly focused on marine species with separate sexes. We characterized the reproductive system of the obligately monoicous (i.e., hermaphroditic) freshwater red alga Batrachospermum gelatinosum and predicted that we would find genetic signatures of uniparental reproduction because of its haploid-diploid life cycle. We sampled 18 sites and genotyped 311 gametophytes with 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci to describe the reproductive system. Genotypic richness was low (<0.5) and pareto β values (describing clonal membership) were <0.7 for most sites. In taxa with separate sexes, these patterns are typically indicative of asexual reproduction. However, the genetic consequences of selfing in monoicous gametophytes are indistinguishable from those caused by asexual processes. Since we sampled gametophytes and have not yet genotyped the chantransia (i.e., the diploid phase), we interpretedlow diversity as a signature of intragametophytic selfing. Additionally, to understand the factors that drive selfing, we tested latitude and several other environmental variables, but none was significantly correlated with the genetic variation we observed. Nevertheless, future studies should genotype the chantransia to measure observed heterozygosity among other summary statistics to disentangle the effects of selfing versus asexual reproduction. Together, these data, coupled with further characterization of abiotic factors that influence population genetic patterns, will allow us to test potential drivers of reproductive system evolution.

Clonality contributes to the spread of Avrainvillea lacerata (Bryopsidales, Chlorophyta) in Hawai'i.

The relative rates of sexual versus asexual reproduction influence the partitioning of genetic diversity within and among populations. During range expansions, asexual reproduction often facilitates colonization and establishment. The arrival of the green alga Avrainvillea lacerata has caused shifts in habitat structure and community assemblages since its discovery in 1981 offshore of O'ahu, Hawai'i. Field observations suggest this species is spreading via vegetative reproduction. To characterize the reproductive system of A. lacerata in Hawai'i, we developed seven microsatellite loci and genotyped 321 blades collected between 2018 and 2023 from three intertidal sites at Maunalua Bay and 'Ewa Beach. We observed one to four alleles at multiple loci, suggesting A. lacerata is tetraploid. Each site was characterized by high genotypic richness (R > 0.8). However, clonal rates were also high, suggesting the vegetative spread of A. lacerata plays a significant role. The importance of clonal reproduction for the persistence of A. lacerata in Hawai'i is consistent with the ecological data collected for this species and observations of other abundant macroalgal invaders in Hawai'i and other regions of the world. These data demonstrate the necessity for implementing appropriate population genetic methods and provide insights into the biology of this alga that will contribute to future studies on effective management strategies incorporating its reproductive system. This study represents one of the few that investigate green algal population genetic patterns and contributes to our understanding of algal reproductive system evolution.

Chronic psychosocial stress affects insulin-like growth factor 1 and its receptors in mouse ovaries.

Context Chronic psychosocial stress negatively affects folliculogenesis and oogenesis. Intraovarian mechanisms mediating these effects are poorly understood. Aims This work aimed to find out how chronic psychosocial stress affects ovarian IGF1 and its receptor (IGF1R), as well as Igf1 and Igf1r gene expression in cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs). It also aimed to address possible protective effects of gonadotropin stimulation on IGF1 ovarian signalling. Methods Female CD1 mice experienced chronic psychosocial stress of 11-day isolation followed by overcrowding for 10days. To verify the model, blood corticosterone levels and the quality of oocytes were evaluated in stressed females. The levels of IGF1/IGF1R, blood IGF1 concentration, and expression of Igf1 /Igf1r in the ovaries were compared in stressed and unstressed females. Key results Psychosocial stress caused an elevation of corticosterone level, which was alleviated by gonadotropin treatment. The stressed mice showed a decreased IGF1 level in the ovaries and a decreased expression of Igf1 and Igf1r in COCs. In the unstressed females, gonadotropin injection decreased the expression of Igf1 and Igf1r ; in the stressed females, the same treatment increased Igf1r expression. Neither stress nor ovarian stimulation with gonadotropins affected the serum IGF1 level. Conclusions Psychosocial stress suppresses IGF1 signalling in the ovaries. Gonadotropin treatment modulates these effects differently in stressed and unstressed animals. Implications The results may have translational value for human reproduction. Ovarian IGF1 can be considered a candidate for further improvement of IVF results in women under conditions of chronic stress.

Two tiers, not one: Different sources of extrinsic mortality have opposing effects on life history traits.

Guided by concepts from life history (LH) theory, a large human research literature has tested the hypothesis that exposures to extrinsic mortality (EM) promote the development of faster LH strategies (e.g., earlier/faster reproduction, higher offspring number). A competing model proposes that, because EM in the past was intimately linked to energetic constraints, such exposures specifically led to the development of slower LH strategies. We empirically address this debate by examining (1) LH variation among small-scale societies under different environmental conditions; (2) country-, regional- and community-level correlations between ecological conditions, mortality, maturational timing, and fertility; (3) individual-level correlations between this same set of factors; and (4) natural experiments leveraging the impact of externally-caused changes in mortality on LH traits. Partially supporting each model, we found that harsh conditions encompassing energetic stress and ambient cues to EM (external cues received through sensory systems) have countervailing effects on the development of LH strategies, both delaying pubertal maturation and promoting an accelerated pace of reproduction and higher offspring number. We conclude that, although energetics are fundamental to many developmental processes, providing a first tier of environmental influence, this first tier alone cannot explain these countervailing effects. An important second tier of environmental influence is afforded by ambient cues to EM. We advance a 2-tiered model that delineates this second tier and its central role in regulating development of LH strategies. Consideration of the first and second tier together is necessary to account for the observed countervailing shifts toward both slower and faster LH traits.

More social species live longer, have longer generation times and longer reproductive windows.

The role of sociality in the demography of animals has become an intense focus of research in recent decades. However, efforts to understand the sociality-demography nexus have hitherto focused on single species or isolated taxonomic groups. Consequently, we lack generality regarding how sociality associates with demographic traits within the Animal Kingdom. Here, I propose a continuum of sociality, from solitary to tightly social, and test whether this continuum correlates with the key demographic properties of 152 species, from jellyfish to humans. After correction for body mass and phylogenetic relationships, I show that the sociality continuum is associated with key life history traits: more social species live longer, postpone maturity, have longer generation time and greater probability of achieving reproduction than solitary, gregarious, communal or colonial species. Contrary to the social buffering hypothesis, sociality does not result in more buffered populations. While more social species have a lower ability to benefit from disturbances, they display greater resistance than more solitary species. Finally, I also show that sociality does not shape reproductive or actuarial senescence rates. This cross-taxonomic examination of sociality across the demography of 13 taxonomic classes highlights key ways in which individual interactions shape most aspects of animal demography.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Understanding age and society using natural populations'.

Modelling Of The Weed Invasion And Control Strategies For Mesquite Plants

The new study presents an innovative model for examining the spread of the mesquite species, which is well-known for its extensive presence around the world thanks to water dispersion in various areas. The goal is to assess the stability of the system locally and globally using epidemiological modeling techniques. The approach involved analyzing the basic reproduction number (R₀) using the next-generation matrix to find the coefficients for the Lyapunov function. The results indicated that, the absence of mesquite remains stable on both local and global scale when R₀ is less than 1, but when R₀ exceeds 1, an endemic equilibrium is observed. Numerical simulations using Runge Kutta ode45 algorithm implemented in MATLAB. The study demonstrated that, an increase in the number of water bodies flowing on land, leads to a faster spread and invasion of mesquite. The study suggests the use of this model in areas where the mesquite species is native to raise awareness, inform decision-making, and educate communities, ultimately aiding efforts to manage and eliminate the species.

Investigation of an optimal control strategy for a cholera disease transmission model with programs

Cholera is a disease of poverty affecting people with inadequate access to safe water and basic sanitation. Conflict, unplanned urbanization and climate change all increase the risk of cholera. In this article, an optimal control deterministic mathematical model of cholera disease with cost-effectiveness analysis is developed and analyzed considering both direct and indirect contact transmission pathways. The model qualitative behaviors, such as the invariant region, the existence of a positive invariant solution, the two equilibrium points (disease-free and endemic equilibrium), and their stabilities (local as well as global stability) of the model are studied. Moreover, the basic reproduction number of the model is obtained. We also performed sensitivity analysis of the basic parameters of the model. Then an optimal control problem is designed with a control functional having five controls: vaccination, treatment, environment sanitation and personal hygiene, and water quality improvement program. We examined the existence and uniqueness of the optimal controls of the system. Through the implementation of Pontryagin's maximum principle, the characterization of the optimal controls optimality system is established. The numerical simulation results the integrated control strategies demonstrated that strategy 2, 7, and 12 are effective programs to combat cholera disease from the community. Based on the local circumstances, available funds, and resources, it is recommended to the government stakeholders and policymakers to execute any one of the three integrated intervention programs.

Inverse uncertainty quantification for stochastic systems by resampling. Applications to modeling of alcohol consumption and infection by HIV

A random differential equation, or stochastic differential equation with parametric uncertainty, is a classical differential equation whose input values (coefficients, initial conditions, etc.) are random variables. Given data, the probability distributions of the input random parameters must be appropriately inferred, before proceeding to simulate the model’s output. This task is called inverse uncertainty quantification. In this paper, the goal is to study the applicability of the Bayesian bootstrap to draw inferences on the posterior distributions of the parameters, by resampling the residuals of the deterministic least-squares optimization with Dirichlet weights. The method is based on repeated deterministic calibrations. Thus, to alleviate the curse of dimensionality, the technique may be combined with the principle of maximum entropy for densities, when there are some parameters that are not optimized deterministically. For illustration of the methodology, two case studies on important health topics are conducted, with stochastic fitting to data. The first one, on past alcohol consumption in Spain, taking social contagion into account. The second one, on HIV evolution considering CD4+ T cells and viral load, with a patient in clinical follow-up. All these applied models are built from a compartmental viewpoint, with a randomized basic reproduction number that controls the long-term behavior of the system.

5.C. Scientific session: Strengthen resilience against emerging vector-borne diseases through the ECDC Fellowship Programmes

Abstract Over the past decade, climate change has impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in Europe, where locally transmitted outbreaks have occurred. It has been implicated in the observed expansion of competent disease vectors in Europe such as Aedes albopictus, which transmits diseases such as Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya. Climate may influence the life cycle of vectors, and the reproduction rate of viral particles inside vectors and human hosts, which means that upsurges in temperature can reduce the incubation period of these pathogens and the life cycle of vectors, thus boosting transmission risk through elevated vector populations. Moreover, globalization and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Risk mapping suggests further expansion of the species in northern Europe due to climate change. The above underscores the necessity for more proactive measures, such as developing an effective vector control program by monitoring the density and distribution of hosts and pathogens at urban, national, and cross-border levels. Additionally, establishing early warning systems based on integrated human and zoonotic and entomological surveillance is crucial to detect alerts promptly and comprehend where and when infections may emerge or spread. Furthermore, cross-border collaboration and harmonization of vector-borne surveillance systems across European countries may improve preparedness, control and response to mosquito-borne diseases. Preparedness and response require significant efforts from EU Member States and neighbouring countries. Only through a multidisciplinary approach, involving multiple sectors, can we truly prepare to address public health threats. To contribute to strengthening resilience against cross-border public health and emerging health threats in EU Member States and neighbouring countries, the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has established three fellowship training programmes. These programmes aim to create and maintain a network of highly qualified epidemiologists, microbiologists and public health professionals and strengthen the public health epidemiology workforce at EU and neighbor countries. This workshop will offer attendees a comprehensive overview of the ECDC’s fellowship programmes, describe how they function and explain their role in preparing for health threats. It will provide examples of three projects carried out by fellows on the implementation of preparedness, response and control measures for emerging vector-borne diseases in European countries at local, national and multinational levels. Those will set the scene for an in-depth analysis of the key challenges faced and can help promote awareness that integrated, multidisciplinary interventions are both feasible and effective in reducing the threat of vector-borne infectious diseases spreading in Europe and neighboring countries. Key messages • ECDC fellowship programmes aim to strengthen resilience against emerging public health threats in EU Member States and neighboring countries. • Fellows are engaged in national and cross-border integrated and multidisciplinary interventions to strengthen preparedness and mitigate the spread of emerging vector-borne diseases.

Population changes in a Southern Ocean krill predator point towards regional Antarctic sea ice declines

While foraging, marine predators integrate information about the environment often across wide-ranging oceanic foraging grounds and reflect these in population parameters. One such species, the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; SRW) has shown alterations to foraging behaviour, declines in body condition, and reduced reproductive rates after 2009 in the South African population. As capital breeders, these changes suggest decreased availability of their main prey at high-latitudes, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). This study analysed environmental factors affecting prey availability for this population over the past 40 years, finding a notable southward contraction in sea ice, a 15–30% decline in sea ice concentration, and a more than two-fold increase in primary production metrics after 2008. These environmental conditions are less supportive of Antarctic krill recruitment in known SRW foraging grounds. Additionally, marginal ice zone, sea ice concentration and two primary production metrics were determined to be either regionally significant or marginally significant predictors of calving interval length when analysed using a linear model. Findings highlight the vulnerability of recovering baleen whale populations to climate change and show how capital breeders serve as sentinels of ecosystem changes in regions that are difficult or costly to study.

Dynamics and event-triggered control of rumor propagation model with saturated incidence and time delay on heterogeneous networks

Considering the impact of user’s cognitive ability in rumor propagation, this paper proposes a new susceptible infection recovery (2SIR) rumor propagation model with saturation incidence and time delay on heterogeneous networks. First, the existence of the equilibria is discussed by using mean field theory and basic reproduction number. Second, the dynamic behaviors of the rumor-free and persistent equilibria are analyzed via the local linearization method, Lyapunov stability theory and irreducible matrix properties. Furthermore, an event-triggered impulsive control strategy is proposed to control the rumor spreaders and some corresponding control conditions are given. Finally, some numerical simulation results and a practical example are presented to verify the correctness of the theoretical results and reflect the impact of cognitive ability and time delay on rumor propagation.