Representation Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Integrating Neutrosophic Numbers in Regression Analysis for Enhancing Predictive Modelling through Uncertainty Representation

This article explores the integration of neutrosophic statistics into regression analysis to bolster predictive modeling. Neutrosophic statistics, an extension of interval statistics, offer a robust framework for handling uncertainty and indeterminacy in datasets. By augmenting traditional interval predictions with measures of indeterminacy, neutrosophic numbers provide a nuanced representation of uncertainty, empowering decision-makers with a comprehensive view of potential outcomes. The methodology emphasizes the iterative refinement of predictive models to adapt to evolving data dynamics and escalating uncertainties. Future research directions include investigating the impact of different neutrosophic aggregation techniques on model performance, exploring synergies with other machine learning paradigms, and extending the applicability of neutrosophic statistics to diverse domains beyond regression analysis. By addressing these avenues, this study aims to advance the frontier of predictive modeling and facilitate more informed decision-making in complex and uncertain environments.

The influence of uncertainty visualization on cognitive load in a safety- and time-critical decision-making task

Decisions with spatial visualizations are often made under uncertainty and high time pressure. However, missing or improper representation of uncertainty can hamper the decision-making process. This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty visualization on cognitive load in the context of a safety-critical, time-sensitive decision-making task with a transportation system map. In a controlled experiment (n = 40) with a dual-task paradigm, we compared three different uncertainty visualization techniques and a baseline for different levels of time pressure. Cognitive load was measured using psycho-physiological metrics based on eye tracking and galvanic skin response, as well as self-reported. The results reveal significant differences in cognitive load among different visualization types, with line uncertainty representation techniques leading to lower cognitive load under both low and high-time pressure scenarios ( α < 0.05 ).

Global sensitivity analysis and optimization of multi-stage TEG based on random and fuzzy mixed input variables

In practical engineering, uncertainties in thermoelectric power generation arise from various factors such as material properties, geometric dimensions, assembly processes, and operational fluctuations of the thermoelectric components. Addressing subjective and objective uncertainties in the design parameters of multi-stage thermoelectric generators (TEGs), this study establishes a robust TEG model incorporating non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Fuzzy and stochastic theories are employed for uncertainty representation, and a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is conducted. The results indicate that the uncertainties in the design variables have varying effects on the output responses of the three-stage TEG. Among them, the temperature of the hot and cold sources has the most significant impact on the output responses（STHP: 0.5018, STLP:0.2199, STHη: 0.5436, STLη: 0.3336）, Parameters like Seebeck coefficient, thermal resistance, thermal conductivity, and operating current exhibit relatively minor effects. The coefficient of variation of the output response varies consistently with changes in the standard deviation or coefficient of variation of input variables, following a similar order as the sensitivity indicators. The variations in the distribution parameters of the key design variable, i.e., the temperature of the hot and cold sources, do not affect the sensitivity index rankings of the variables concerning the system output responses. As the distribution parameters of the hot and cold source temperatures gradually increase, the sensitivity indices of the design variables to the system output responses exhibit different trends, indicating a change in the degree of sensitivity to the variations in distribution parameters of the design variables. Optimization based on global sensitivity analysis enhances power output by 43.37 %, reaching a maximum of 11.37 W under constraints compared to the original 7.93 W. This research provides guidance for designing and optimizing thermoelectric power systems under mixed uncertainties.

Rational representations of uncertainty: a pluralistic approach to bounded rationality

Rational representations of uncertainty: a pluralistic approach to bounded rationality

Dopamine encoding of novelty facilitates efficient uncertainty-driven exploration.

When facing an unfamiliar environment, animals need to explore to gain new knowledge about which actions provide reward, but also put the newly acquired knowledge to use as quickly as possible. Optimal reinforcement learning strategies should therefore assess the uncertainties of these action-reward associations and utilise them to inform decision making. We propose a novel model whereby direct and indirect striatal pathways act together to estimate both the mean and variance of reward distributions, and mesolimbic dopaminergic neurons provide transient novelty signals, facilitating effective uncertainty-driven exploration. We utilised electrophysiological recording data to verify our model of the basal ganglia, and we fitted exploration strategies derived from the neural model to data from behavioural experiments. We also compared the performance of directed exploration strategies inspired by our basal ganglia model with other exploration algorithms including classic variants of upper confidence bound (UCB) strategy in simulation. The exploration strategies inspired by the basal ganglia model can achieve overall superior performance in simulation, and we found qualitatively similar results in fitting model to behavioural data compared with the fitting of more idealised normative models with less implementation level detail. Overall, our results suggest that transient dopamine levels in the basal ganglia that encode novelty could contribute to an uncertainty representation which efficiently drives exploration in reinforcement learning.

Multi-criteria constrained interval type-2 fuzzy decision-making: A space analysis perspective

Practical decision-making problems invariably involve inherent uncertainty in information, making it challenging to obtain precise evaluations. In this research, the utilization of constrained interval type-2 fuzzy sets (CIT2 FSs) enables the representation of complex uncertainty in decision information, and a space analysis approach, called CIT2 fuzzy multi-criteria acceptability analysis (CIT2FMAA), is proposed for conducting reliable decision-making. The CIT2FMAA introduces a novel paradigm for type-2 fuzzy decision-making, wherein CIT2 fuzzy evaluations are acknowledged as spaces of type-1 fuzzy evaluations and processed using type-1 fuzzy operations and methodologies. First, from a space analysis perspective, the type-2 fuzzy measures of logical rank expressions are formalized as CIT2 fuzzy rank acceptability indexes, and the CIT2 fuzzy rank acceptability analysis is developed to rank CIT2 fuzzy numbers. Second, the weighted average of the CIT2 fuzzy numbers is defined, and the CIT2FMAA is proposed to support uncertain multi-criteria decision-making. Subsequently, a sampling algorithm is designed for implementing CIT2 fuzzy rank acceptability analysis and CIT2FMAA. Finally, a linguistic disease diagnosis is performed to demonstrate the efficiency of CIT2FMAA. Compared to traditional type-2 fuzzy decision-making methods, CIT2FMAA is more efficient because it not only derives ranks of alternatives but also provides confidence degrees for those ranks.

Artificial intelligence for risk analysis-A risk characterization perspective on advances, opportunities, and limitations.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen numerous applications for risk analysis and provides ample opportunities for developing new and improved methods and models for this purpose. In the present article, we conceptualize the use of AI for risk analysis by framing it as an input-algorithm-output process and linking such a setup to three tasks in establishing a risk description: consequence characterization, uncertainty characterization, and knowledge management. We then give an overview of currently used concepts and methods for AI-based risk analysis and outline potential future uses by extrapolating beyond currently produced types of output. We end with a discussion of the limits of automation, both near-term limitations and a more fundamental question related to allowing AI to automatically prescribe risk management decisions. We conclude that there are opportunities for using AI for risk analysis to a greater extent than is commonly the case today; however, critical concerns about proper uncertainty representation and the need for risk-informed rather than risk-based decision-making also lead us to conclude that risk analysis and decision-making processes cannot be fully automated.

Flow‐ and scale‐dependent spatial predictability of convective precipitation combining different model uncertainty representations

AbstractConsidering a whole summer season in central Europe, we find that the operational, convection‐permitting ICON‐D2 ensemble prediction system is spatially underdispersive in convective precipitation forecasts. The spatial spread of hourly precipitation is insufficient to capture the inherent error adequately across all scales (up to 300 km) and forecast times (up to 24 h). This lack of spread becomes more pronounced in the weak convective forcing regime. Using physically based stochastic perturbations in the planetary boundary layer is beneficial and leads to a reduction in spatial error at scales larger than 20 km and increases the spread at scales less than 50 km during weak forcing of convection, whereas the effect is almost neutral during strong forcing. Complementing the stochastic perturbations by perturbed parameters in the microphysics scheme shows an additive effect on spatial error and spread for a characteristic case study. Assessing the practical predictability of convective precipitation in a flow‐dependent manner is crucial, and our approach of combining multiple sources of uncertainty proves beneficial in mitigating the spatial underdispersion across scales, particularly during weak convective forcing.

Adaptive Uncertainty-Based Learning for Text-Based Person Retrieval

Text-based person retrieval aims at retrieving a specific pedestrian image from a gallery based on textual descriptions. The primary challenge is how to overcome the inherent heterogeneous modality gap in the situation of significant intra-class variation and minimal inter-class variation. Existing approaches commonly employ vision-language pre-training or attention mechanisms to learn appropriate cross-modal alignments from noise inputs. Despite commendable progress, current methods inevitably suffer from two defects: 1) Matching ambiguity, which mainly derives from unreliable matching pairs; 2) One-sided cross-modal alignments, stemming from the absence of exploring one-to-many correspondence, i.e., coarse-grained semantic alignment. These critical issues significantly deteriorate retrieval performance. To this end, we propose a novel framework termed Adaptive Uncertainty-based Learning (AUL) for text-based person retrieval from the uncertainty perspective. Specifically, our AUL framework consists of three key components: 1) Uncertainty-aware Matching Filtration that leverages Subjective Logic to effectively mitigate the disturbance of unreliable matching pairs and select high-confidence cross-modal matches for training; 2) Uncertainty-based Alignment Refinement, which not only simulates coarse-grained alignments by constructing uncertainty representations but also performs progressive learning to incorporate coarse- and fine-grained alignments properly; 3) Cross-modal Masked Modeling that aims at exploring more comprehensive relations between vision and language. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our AUL method consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance on three benchmark datasets in supervised, weakly supervised, and domain generalization settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/CFM-MSG/Code-AUL.

Extended EDAS Analysis for Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Based on Distributed Generation (DG) Technologies System

Recently, there has been a growing interest in distributed generation (DG) technologies, driven by various factors such as fuel price uncertainties, environmental constraints, and increasing power consumption along with transmission capacity shortages, in modern power systems. DG, which involves utilizing clean and renewable energy sources for power generation within the distribution system, has gained significant attention globally. Many developing countries, including Libya, are considering the adoption of DG technologies as part of their energy system expansion plans. Libya, located in North Africa and characterized by vast desert lands, has abundant solar radiation, making solar energy a promising and sustainable source of power. However, despite this energy potential, the southern part of Libya faces frequent power outages. In order to effectively maintain service quality, it is essential to conduct quantitative evaluation of wireless sensor networks. the evaluation of wireless sensor networks involves addressing the multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problem. To tackle the challenges of MAGDM, an extension of the classical EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution) method is proposed in this paper. The proposed method incorporates interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs), which provide a more flexible and comprehensive representation of uncertainty, to handle the complexities of MAGDM. The paper begins with a brief review of essential concepts related to IVIFSs. Then, the weights of attributes are determined using the CRITIC method. Subsequently, the IVIF-EDAS method is established by integrating the EDAS method with IVIFSs, and all the calculation procedures are described.

Arousal coherence, uncertainty, and well-being: an active inference account.

Here we build on recent findings which show that greater alignment between our subjective experiences (how we feel) and physiological states (measurable changes in our body) plays a pivotal role in the overall psychological well-being. Specifically, we propose that the alignment or 'coherence' between affective arousal (e.g. how excited we 'feel') and autonomic arousal (e.g. heart rate or pupil dilation) may be key for maintaining up-to-date uncertainty representations in dynamic environments. Drawing on recent advances in interoceptive and affective inference, we also propose that arousal coherence reflects interoceptive integration, facilitates adaptive belief updating, and impacts our capacity to adapt to changes in uncertainty, with downstream consequences to well-being. We also highlight the role of meta-awareness of arousal, a third level of inference, which may permit conscious awareness, learning about, and intentional regulation of lower-order sources of arousal. Practices emphasizing meta-awareness of arousal (like meditation) may therefore elicit some of their known benefits via improved arousal coherence. We suggest that arousal coherence is also likely to be associated with markers of adaptive functioning (like emotional awareness and self-regulatory capacities) and discuss mind-body practices that may increase coherence.

A robust data-model dual-driven fusion with uncertainty estimation for LiDAR–IMU localization system

Accurate and robust localization is a critical requirement for autonomous driving and intelligent robots, particularly in complex dynamic environments and various motion scenarios. However, existing LiDAR odometry methods often struggle to promptly respond to changes in the surroundings and motion conditions with fixed parameters through execution, hindering their ability to adaptively adjust system model parameters. Additionally, current localization techniques frequently overlook the confidence level associated with their pose results, leading the autonomous systems to unconditionally accept estimated outputs, even when they may be erroneous. In this paper, we propose a robust data-model dual-driven fusion with uncertainty estimation for the LiDAR–IMU localization system, which integrates the advantages of data-driven and model-driven approaches. We introduce data-driven feature encoder modules for LiDAR and IMU raw data, enabling the system to detect changes in the environment and motion status. Subsequently, these data-driven findings are incorporated into a filtering based model, allowing for the adaptive refinement of system model parameters. Furthermore, we refine the representation of uncertainty based on the Extended-Kalman-Filter model covariance, integrating uncertainty from sensor data and model parameters, which helps to evaluate the confidence of fusion system results. We conducted extensive experiments on two publicly available datasets and one dataset we collected with three sequences, verifying the accuracy of our method. In addition, we have demonstrated the robustness of our method in different motion states and scenarios through comparative experiments, as well as the effectiveness of our refined uncertainty estimation, compared with existing great methods, such as Fast-LIO2 and LIO-SAM, the localization accuracy has been improved by 8.3%.

AI-enhanced forecasting of Indian primary energy demand: Fuzzy auto-regressive distributed lag models

As the demand for energy in India continues to surge, accurate forecasting becomes paramount for efficient resource allocation and sustainable development. This study proposes an innovative approach to forecasting Indian primary energy demand by integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques with Fuzzy Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (FADL) models. FADL models, incorporating fuzzy logic, allow for a nuanced representation of uncertainties and complexities within the energy demand dynamics. In this research, historical energy consumption data is analysed using FADL models with both symmetric and non-symmetric triangular coefficients, enhancing the model’s adaptability to the inherent uncertainties associated with energy forecasting. This study addresses the urgent need for enhanced energy planning models in the context of sustainable development. Our research aims to provide a comprehensive framework for predicting future Total Final Consumption (TFC) in alignment with the Indian National Energy Plan’s net-zero emissions target by 2035. Recognizing the limitations of current models, our research introduces a novel approach that integrates advanced algorithms and methodologies, offering a more flexible and realistic assessment of TFC trends. The primary objective of this study is to develop an improved energy planning model that surpasses existing projections by incorporating sophisticated algorithms. We aim to refine

Mathematical analysis of big data analytics under bipolar complex fuzzy soft information

The aim of this study is to develop new and efficient theories for handling complex and unreliable data in real-world scenarios. The proposed approach integrates two distinct theories: the Bipolar Complex Fuzzy Set (BCFS) and the Soft Set (SS), resulting in a novel and superior method compared to existing solutions. Furthermore, the value of big data analytics cannot be overstated as it provides businesses with the opportunity to use their data to find areas for development and progress. To gain insights from raw data, it must first be collected and organized. Data modeling represents these large, complex data sets in a visual format, such as a chart or diagram. However, the visualization process often results in uncertainties and inaccuracies, highlighting the need for a more robust approach to data analysis. To address this issue, this paper introduces the concept of Bipolar Complex Fuzzy Soft Relations (BCFSRs), a fuzzy decision-making method within a complex bipolar fuzzy environment that can have the advantages of both a Bipolar Complex fuzzy relation and a soft relation at the same time. In BCFSRs, an element can have degrees of membership in both the positive and negative directions, reflecting a more nuanced and versatile representation of uncertainty or ambiguity. These mathematical ideas are explained through the Cartesian product of two Bipolar Complex Fuzzy Soft Sets (BCFSSs) and serve to simplify the decision-making process by presenting the BCFSSs in a clear and concise manner. The inventive notion of the BCFSRs elucidates the combined positive and negative effects of anything with parameterization. To support organizations in making data-driven choices and obtain insights for strategic planning and inventiveness, the analysis of big data is essential in several industries, including financial services, marketing, and medical treatment, among others. To choose the optimal big data analytics for efficient operation, this research presents modeling methodologies based on BCFSRs, including the formulation and analysis of scoring functions. The validity of the proposed work is demonstrated through a comparison study with existing methods, providing valuable insights for effective data analysis.

Effects of aging on externally cued and internally driven uncertainty representations.

The Hick-Hyman law states that response time (RT) increases linearly with increasing information uncertainty. The effects of aging on uncertainty representations in choice RT paradigms remain unclear, including whether aging differentially affects processes mediating externally cued versus internally driven uncertainty. This study sought to characterize age-related differences in uncertainty representations using a card-sorting task. The task separately manipulated internally driven uncertainty (i.e., probability of each stimulus type with fixed number of response piles) and externally cued uncertainty (i.e., number of response piles with fixed probability of each stimulus type). Older adults (OA) showed greater RT slowing than younger adults in response to uncertainty load, an effect that was stronger in the externally cued than internally driven condition. While both age groups showed lower accuracy and greater RTs in response to unexpected (surprising) stimuli in the internally driven condition at low uncertainty loads, OA were unable to distinguish between expected and nonexpected stimuli at higher uncertainty loads when the probability of each stimulus type was close to equal. Among OA, better performance on the internally driven, but not externally cued, condition was associated with better global cognitive performance and verbal fluency. Collectively, these findings provide behavioral evidence of age-related disruptions to bottom-up (externally cued) and top-down (supporting internally driven mental representations) resources to process uncertainty and coordinate task-relevant action. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

An evidential linguistic ELECTRE method for selection of emergency shelter sites

In many circumstances, decisions are based on subjective experience. However, some views can be vague, meaning that policymakers do not know exactly how they should express their opinions. Therefore, it is necessary for researchers to provide scientific decision frameworks, among which the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method in the linguistic environment is gradually favored by scholars. A large body of literature reports relevant approaches with regard to linguistic term sets, but existing approaches are insufficient to express the subjective thoughts of policymakers in a complex and uncertain environment. In this paper, we address this problem by introducing the concept of evidential linguistic term set (ELTS). ELTS generalizes many other uncertainty representations under linguistic context, such as fuzzy sets, probabilities, or possibility distributions. Measures on ELTS, such as uncertainty measure, dissimilarity measure and expectation function, provide general frameworks to handle uncertain information. Modeling and reasoning of information expressed by ELTSs are realized by the proposed aggregation operators. Subsequently, this paper presents a novel MCDM approach called evidential linguistic ELECTRE method, and applies it to the case of selection of emergency shelter sites. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for MCDM problems under linguistic context and highlight the significance of the developed ELTS.

Cover Feature: Hierarchical Representation of Measurement Data, Metrological Uncertainty and Metadata for Calibrated Battery Tests (Batteries &amp; Supercaps 3/2024)

Cover Feature: Hierarchical Representation of Measurement Data, Metrological Uncertainty and Metadata for Calibrated Battery Tests (Batteries &amp; Supercaps 3/2024)

A Software Tool for Estimating Uncertainty of Bayesian Posterior Probability for Disease.

The role of medical diagnosis is essential in patient care and healthcare. Established diagnostic practices typically rely on predetermined clinical criteria and numerical thresholds. In contrast, Bayesian inference provides an advanced framework that supports diagnosis via in-depth probabilistic analysis. This study's aim is to introduce a software tool dedicated to the quantification of uncertainty in Bayesian diagnosis, a field that has seen minimal exploration to date. The presented tool, a freely available specialized software program, utilizes uncertainty propagation techniques to estimate the sampling, measurement, and combined uncertainty of the posterior probability for disease. It features two primary modules and fifteen submodules, all designed to facilitate the estimation and graphical representation of the standard uncertainty of the posterior probability estimates for diseased and non-diseased population samples, incorporating parameters such as the mean and standard deviation of the test measurand, the size of the samples, and the standard measurement uncertainty inherent in screening and diagnostic tests. Our study showcases the practical application of the program by examining the fasting plasma glucose data sourced from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Parametric distribution models are explored to assess the uncertainty of Bayesian posterior probability for diabetes mellitus, using the oral glucose tolerance test as the reference diagnostic method.

Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis.

Determining the psychological, computational, and neural bases of confidence and uncertainty holds promise for understanding foundational aspects of human metacognition. While a neuroscience of confidence has focused on the mechanisms underpinning subpersonal phenomena such as representations of uncertainty in the visual or motor system, metacognition research has been concerned with personal-level beliefs and knowledge about self-performance. I provide a road map for bridging this divide by focusing on a particular class of confidence computation: propositional confidence in one's own (hypothetical) decisions or actions. Propositional confidence is informed by the observer's models of the world and their cognitive system, which may be more or less accurate-thus explaining why metacognitive judgments are inferential and sometimes diverge from task performance. Disparate findings on the neural basis of uncertainty and performance monitoring are integrated into a common framework, and a new understanding of the locus of action of metacognitive interventions is developed.

Uncertainty in humanities network visualization

Network visualization is one of the most widely used tools in digital humanities research. The idea of uncertain or “fuzzy” data is also a core notion in digital humanities research. Yet network visualizations in digital humanities do not always prominently represent uncertainty. In this article, we present a mathematical and logical model of uncertainty as a range of values which can be used in network visualizations. We review some of the principles for visualizing uncertainty of different kinds, visual variables that can be used for representing uncertainty, and how these variables have been used to represent different data types in visualizations drawn from a range of non-humanities fields like climate science and bioinformatics. We then provide examples of two diagrams: one in which the variables displaying degrees of uncertainty are integrated/pinto the graph and one in which glyphs are added to represent data certainty and uncertainty. Finally, we discuss how probabilistic data and what-if scenarios could be used to expand the representation of uncertainty in humanities network visualizations.