Reports Of Death Research Articles

A data-driven semi-parametric model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States.

To support decision-making and policy for managing epidemics of emerging pathogens, we present a model for inference and scenario analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA. The stochastic SEIR-type model includes compartments for latent, asymptomatic, detected and undetected symptomatic individuals, and hospitalized cases, and features realistic interval distributions for presymptomatic and symptomatic periods, time varying rates of case detection, diagnosis, and mortality. The model accounts for the effects on transmission of human mobility using anonymized mobility data collected from cellular devices, and of difficult to quantify environmental and behavioral factors using a latent process. The baseline transmission rate is the product of a human mobility metric obtained from data and this fitted latent process. We fit the model to incident case and death reports for each state in the USA and Washington D.C., using likelihood Maximization by Iterated particle Filtering (MIF). Observations (daily case and death reports) are modeled as arising from a negative binomial reporting process. We estimate time-varying transmission rate, parameters of a sigmoidal time-varying fraction of hospitalized cases that result in death, extra-demographic process noise, two dispersion parameters of the observation process, and the initial sizes of the latent, asymptomatic, and symptomatic classes. In a retrospective analysis covering March-December 2020, we show how mobility and transmission strength became decoupled across two distinct phases of the pandemic. The decoupling demonstrates the need for flexible, semi-parametric approaches for modeling infectious disease dynamics in real-time.

Limitations of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Information as Reported in the National Violent Death Reporting System.

The National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) is a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) restricted-access database detailing precipitating circumstances to U.S. violent deaths. In 2013 and 2015, the CDC added codes denoting sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) and sex of partner. In the past decade, researchers have leveraged NVDRS data to document SOGI-related patterns and characteristics of violent death including suicide. Yet, there are substantial limitations to NVDRS SOGI information that should be considered in responsible reporting by researchers and informed assessment by reviewers. In this perspective, we summarize some of these challenges and offer recommendations for using NVDRS SOGI data responsibly.

Revisiting the Structural (In)Variances of Homicide: Examining the Differential Effects of Context Across Homicide Types

Objectives Extend foundational work on the structural covariates of homicide (concentrated disadvantage in particular) by examining the differential effects of context across distinct types of incidents. Methods Using data on 31,513 incidents nested within 4,598 places from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) from 2003 to 2018, multilevel latent class analysis (MLCA) classified homicides into types. Two-level negative binomial regression models subsequently examined the place-level correlates of homicide counts disaggregated by type. Results Four empirically distinct types of incidents were identified, including felony, argument, intimate partner violence, and child abuse homicides. While concentrated disadvantage has a positive relationship with all four types, its effect is significantly stronger for felony and argument homicides relative to incidents involving intimate partner violence and child abuse. Conclusions The results indicate that context exhibits differential effects across homicide types, in turn suggesting that their underlying social processes and mechanisms are distinct.

Firearm Homicides of US Children Precipitated by Intimate Partner Violence: 2003-2020.

Examine characteristics associated with firearm homicides of children aged 0-17 years precipitated by intimate partner violence (IPV). Data were from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Violent Death Reporting System (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico; 2003-2020). Logistic regression was used to examine associations between various characteristics and IPV among child firearm homicides. From 2003-2020, a total of 11 594 child homicides were captured in the National Violent Death Reporting System, of which 49.3% (n = 5716) were firearm homicides; 12.0% (n = 686) of child firearm homicides were IPV-related. Among IPV-related child firearm homicides, 86.0% (n = 590) were child corollary victims (ie, children whose death was connected to IPV between others); 14.0% (n = 96) were teens killed by a current or former dating partner. Child firearm homicides had greater odds of involving IPV when precipitated by conflict, crises, and cooccurring with the perpetrator's suicide compared with those without these characteristics. Over half of IPV-related firearm homicides of child corollary victims included homicide of the adult intimate partner, of which 94.1% were the child victim's mother. Child firearm homicides perpetrated by mothers' male companions (adjusted odds ratio, 6.9; 95% confidence interval, 3.9-12.1) and children's fathers (adjusted odds ratio, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.8) had greater odds of involving IPV compared with those perpetrated by mothers. Multiple factors were associated with greater odds of child firearm homicides being IPV-related. Strategies promoting healthy intimate partner relationships starting at a young age; assessment of danger to children in IPV situations; strengthening economic supports for families; creating safe, stable, and nurturing relationships and environments for children; and addressing social and structural inequities are important for preventing firearm homicides of children, including those involving IPV.

Suicides among American Indian/Alaska Native firefighters: Data from the National Violent Death Reporting System, 2003 – 2017

Suicide is a significant public health problem in the United States and disproportionally affects male American Indian/Alaska Natives (AI/AN). Suicide is particularly problematic among AI/AN firefighters who are more likely to report suicide ideation, planning, attempts, and risk compared to non-Hispanic white (NHW) firefighters. The aim of the current study was to compare non-Hispanic AI/AN firefighter and NHW firefighter suicide decedents by demographics and risk/precipitating factors using National Violent Death Reporting System data for 45 male non-Hispanic AI/AN firefighter and 588 male NHW firefighter decedents who died by suicide. Compared to NHW firefighter decedents, AI/AN firefighter decedents were significantly younger and had significantly higher odds of experiencing alcohol use problems and a recent death/suicide of a family member/friend. AI/AN firefighter decedents had significantly lower odds of documented mental health problems, documented diagnosis of depression/dysthymia, receipt of mental health treatment, or leaving a suicide note compared to NHW firefighter decedents. Results from this study may inform tailored suicide prevention and screening efforts among first responders with the goal of lowering suicide mortality among AI/AN firefighters and fire service as a whole.

Firearm use risk factors and access restriction among suicide decedents age 75 and older who disclosed their suicidal intent.

A majority of older adult suicide decedents used firearms. In this study, we focused on suicide decedents age 75+ who disclosed their suicidal intent within a month of their injury/death to examine demographic and clinical characteristics associated with firearm use and firearm access restriction attempts by their family members. The 2017-2019 U.S. National Violent Death Reporting System provided data (N = 1,734 suicidal intent disclosers; 1,476 males and 258 females; 21.4% of decedents age 75+). Generalized linear model (GLM) for a Poisson distribution with a log link was used to examine firearm use risk factors. Firearm access restriction attempts by decedents' family members were examined based on coroner/medical examiner and law enforcement (CME/LE) reports. Nearly three quarters of disclosers disclosed their intent to family members, and 82.9% of males and 27.5% of females used firearms. GLM results showed males, non-Hispanic white people, and residents in the South and West regions had higher likelihood of firearm use. CME/LE reports of 140 out of 1,294 firearm decedents included narratives related to firearm restriction attempts or lack thereof. Firearm access restrictions were not attempted in 65 cases because family members did not take suicidal intent disclosure seriously or because decedents promised no self-harm. Partial or complete removal of firearms in 75 cases were not effective as decedents had hidden a firearm or purchased a new one. Others used different lethal methods. The findings indicate a need for: (a) training family members of older adults who are at risk of suicide in effective means safety/access restriction and strategies to prevent means substitution; (b) more comprehensive legislative reforms reducing access to firearms by those at risk of suicide; and (c) more comfort and palliative care and counseling for psychosocial risk factors.

Results of a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled Phase 2 study propose iptacopan as an alternative complement pathway inhibitor for IgA nephropathy

Targeting the alternative complement pathway is an attractive therapeutic strategy given its role in the pathogenesis of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). Iptacopan (LNP023) is an oral, proximal alternative complement inhibitor that specifically binds to Factor B. Our randomized, double-blind, parallel-group adaptive Phase 2 study (NCT03373461) enrolled patients with biopsy-confirmed IgAN (within previous three years) with estimated glomerular filtration rates of 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 and over and urine protein 0.75 g/24 hours and over on stable doses of renin angiotensin system inhibitors. Patients were randomized to four iptacopan doses (10, 50, 100, or 200 mg bid) or placebo for either a three-month (Part 1; 46 patients) or a six-month (Part 2; 66 patients) treatment period. The primary analysis evaluated the dose–response relationship of iptacopan versus placebo on 24-hour urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) at three months. Other efficacy, safety and biomarker parameters were assessed. Baseline characteristics were generally well-balanced across treatment arms. There was a statistically significant dose-response effect, with 23% reduction in UPCR achieved with iptacopan 200 mg bid (80% confidence interval 8 -34%) at three months. UPCR decreased further through six months in iptacopan 100 and 200 mg arms (from a mean of 1.3 g/g at baseline to 0.8 g/g at six months in the 200 mg arm). A sustained reduction in complement biomarkers levels including plasma Bb, serum Wieslab, and urinary C5b-9 was observed. Iptacopan was well-tolerated, with no reports of deaths, treatment-related serious adverse events or bacterial infections, and led to strong inhibition of alternative complement pathway activity and persistent proteinuria reduction in patients with IgAN. Thus, our findings support further evaluation of iptacopan in the ongoing Phase 3 trial (APPLAUSE-IgAN; NCT04578834).

CKD is the Major Cause of Death in Uddanam: A Population-Representative Study Using Smart Verbal Autopsy

IntroductionUddanam is an agricultural area with a high burden of chronic kidney disease of unknown aetiology (CKDu). Despite reports of many deaths due to CKD in the lay press, the exact contribution of CKD to deaths remains uncertain as most deaths occur outside medical care. MethodsWe used SmartVA automated verbal autopsy (VA) tool to ascertain the cause-specific mortality fractions amongst a 2419 subject-strong general population cohort in Uddanam between 2018-2022. VA interviews were conducted twice with the family members of the deceased. ResultsA total of 133 deaths were recorded, giving a crude death rate of 5.5%, 10 times higher than that recorded in national surveys. CKD was responsible for 45% of all deaths, followed by ischemic heart disease (15%) and respiratory disease (6%). ConclusionThis study confirms CKD as the leading cause of mortality in this high CKD burden area and provides crucial data for public health decision-making and resource allocation.

Intimate partner violence and suicide mortality: a cross-sectional study using machine learning and natural language processing of suicide data from 43 states

IntroductionIntimate partner violence (IPV) is associated with suicidal ideation, yet it remains unclear how often IPV precipitates suicide mortality. To overcome limitations with national data, we applied novel methods to:...

Racial Disparity among Youth Decedents of Legal Intervention Trauma.

Legal intervention trauma (LIT) is defined as injury due to any encounter with law enforcement. This study investigates associations between demographics, violent status, and law enforcement tactics among youth decedents of LIT. Decedents of LIT age 26 years or younger were identified using the CDC's National Violent Death Reporting System from 2003 to 2018. Decedents were classified as "violent" if they possessed a weapon, were committing a violent crime, or if law enforcement reported justified use of force. All others were classified as "nonviolent." Law enforcement tactics were stratified into "lethal" (firearm with standard ammunition) or "less lethal" (any other) force. Differences in the racial distribution across these classifications were assessed using chi-square tests of proportions. We identified 1,281 youth decedents of LIT; of which, 92.5% met violent criteria. Black youths were less likely than White youths to possess a weapon (71.6% vs 77.4%, p = 0.02) and were not more likely to be committing a violent crime (63.6% vs 60.4%, p = 0.27). They were, however, more likely than White youths to experience force reported as justified by law enforcement (89.9% vs 82.4%, p = 0.002) and to experience exclusively lethal force not preceded by less-lethal tactics (94.0% vs 88.7%, p = 0.001). Among the subset of 85 cases where law enforcement reported justified use of force despite the decedent not possessing a weapon or committing a violent crime, the precipitating event was more often a traffic stop for Black youths than for White youths (28.5% vs 6.66%, p = 0.02). These findings indicate a racial disparity among youth decedents of LIT.

Canadian organ donation organizations’ donor audit processes: an environmental scan

PurposeDeceased donor audits (DAs) allow organ donation and transplantation systems to measure and analyze missed donation opportunities (MDOs). Missed donation opportunities can harm both patients/families denied the opportunity to donate and patients on transplant waitlists denied access to lifesaving organs. In Canada, there are no national standards for DAs, data analysis, nor accountability processes surrounding MDOs. Understanding DA current practice in each jurisdicton would facilitate developing a national strategy for DAs.MethodAll provincial organ donation organizations (ODOs) were invited to participate in an environmental scan (ES) of current DA practices. The two ES phases were an electronic survey followed by semistructured interviews. We collected information about the objectives, frequency, scope, data collection methodology, resources required, definitions/metrics used, and process for reporting outcomes.ResultsAll eleven ODOs participated in both phases of the ES (July and October 2019). The primary purposes for conducting DAs were to estimate the following: 1) donor potential (5/11, 45%); 2) system performance at the provincial level (3/11, 27%); and 3) system performance at the hospital level (3/11, 27%). Frequency of DAs varied from weekly to annually, depending on the availability of death reports, urban vs rural setting, and staffing. High variability was observed in DA methodology, donor definitions, and metrics across jurisdictions.ConclusionThere is significant variability across Canadian ODOs in the methodology, definitions, timeliness, data collection, and reporting of DAs. This underscores the need for a national donor audit strategy to reduce preventable harm from MDOs to patients/families at end of life and those on transplant waitlists.

Identifying Rare Circumstances Preceding Female Firearm Suicides: Validating A Large Language Model Approach.

Firearm suicide has been more prevalent among males, but age-adjusted female firearm suicide rates increased by 20% from 2010 to 2020, outpacing the rate increase among males by about 8 percentage points, and female firearm suicide may have different contributing circumstances. In the United States, the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) is a comprehensive source of data on violent deaths and includes unstructured incident narrative reports from coroners or medical examiners and law enforcement. Conventional natural language processing approaches have been used to identify common circumstances preceding female firearm suicide deaths but failed to identify rarer circumstances due to insufficient training data. This study aimed to leverage a large language model approach to identify infrequent circumstances preceding female firearm suicide in the unstructured coroners or medical examiners and law enforcement narrative reports available in the NVDRS. We used the narrative reports of 1462 female firearm suicide decedents in the NVDRS from 2014 to 2018. The reports were written in English. We coded 9 infrequent circumstances preceding female firearm suicides. We experimented with predicting those circumstances by leveraging a large language model approach in a yes/no question-answer format. We measured the prediction accuracy with F1-score (ranging from 0 to 1). F1-score is the harmonic mean of precision (positive predictive value) and recall (true positive rate or sensitivity). Our large language model outperformed a conventional support vector machine-supervised machine learning approach by a wide margin. Compared to the support vector machine model, which had F1-scores less than 0.2 for most infrequent circumstances, our large language model approach achieved an F1-score of over 0.6 for 4 circumstances and 0.8 for 2 circumstances. The use of a large language model approach shows promise. Researchers interested in using natural language processing to identify infrequent circumstances in narrative report data may benefit from large language models.

Predictive power of wastewater for nowcasting infectious disease transmission: A retrospective case study of five sewershed areas in Louisville, Kentucky

BackgroundEpidemiological nowcasting traditionally relies on count surveillance data. The availability and quality of such count data may vary over time, limiting representation of true infections. Wastewater data correlates with traditional surveillance data and may provide additional value for nowcasting disease trends. MethodsWe obtained SARS-CoV-2 case, death, wastewater, and serosurvey data for Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA), between August 2020 and March 2021, and parameterized an existing nowcasting model using combinations of these data. We assessed the predictive performance and variability at the sewershed level and compared the effects of adding or replacing wastewater data to case and death reports. FindingsAdding wastewater data minimally improved the predictive performance of nowcasts compared to a model fitted to case and death data (Weighted Interval Score (WIS) 0.208 versus 0.223), and reduced the predictive performance compared to a model fitted to deaths data (WIS 0.517 versus 0.500). Adding wastewater data to deaths data improved the nowcasts agreement to estimates from models using cases and deaths data. These findings were consistent across individual sewersheds as well as for models fit to the aggregated total data of 5 sewersheds. Retrospective reconstructions of epidemiological dynamics created using different combinations of data were in general agreement (coverage >75%). InterpretationThese findings show wastewater data may be valuable for infectious disease nowcasting when clinical surveillance data are absent, such as early in a pandemic or in low-resource settings where systematic collection of epidemiologic data is difficult.

Firearm Legislation and Firearm Use in Female Intimate Partner Homicide Using National Violent Death Reporting System Data, 2015–2019

Firearm Legislation and Firearm Use in Female Intimate Partner Homicide Using National Violent Death Reporting System Data, 2015–2019

Left out in the cold: Homicide amongst persons experiencing homelessness

BackgroundThere is no American population-level study comparing the characteristics of homicides involving victims who were vs were not experiencing homelessness at time of death. We aim to identify variables surrounding homeless homicide that are unique, and intervenable. MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we reviewed the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) from 2003 to 2018 and compared the characteristics surrounding homicides of victims who were not-homeless (cohort 1) vs experiencing homelessness (cohort 2) at death. We utilized the available perpetrator data to characterize the average perpetrator for each cohort. We considered housing status to be our primary predictor and recorded NVDRS variables, such as age of victims and likelihood to know perpetrators, to be our primary outcomes. Results81,212 Homicide Victims and 60,982 Homicide Perpetrators were included in analysis. Homeless cohort victims were more likely younger, White, male, and to have a known mental health or substance abuse disorder. PEH were also more likely to have co-morbid mental health and substance abuse disorders but were roughly half as likely to be getting treatment for said disorders. Circumstances surrounding incidents, including geographic location, mechanism of injury, and premeditation, varied; homeless cohort victims were more likely to die in random acts of violence, but were less likely to die via firearm. ConclusionsThere is room for targeted interventions against homeless homicides. Level of evidenceEpidemiological, Level IV.

Suicide Among Roofers: Injury, Pain & Substance Misuse

Objective CDC has called for suicide research on the construction industry, an industry with a high suicide rate. The present study addresses this gap and focuses on roofers. It assesses which risk factors distinguish suicides by roofers from those of the general population. Alcohol and drug misuse, related to their high incidence of injury and pain, are seen as key potential drivers of roofer suicide. Methodology Data refer to 30,570 suicides and are taken from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Drawing from previous work on the health professions, 15 core predictors are selected, representing psychiatric morbidity, social strains, and demographics. Since the analysis seeks to differentiate roofers’ suicides from others, the dependent variable is a dichotomy where roofers’ suicides (=1) and other suicides (=0). Results After adjusting for the other 14 risk factors, a multivariate logistic regression analysis found that roofers’ suicides were 76% more apt (Odds ratio = 1.76, CI: 1.18, 2.63) than other suicides to have a known substance or alcohol problem that contributed to their suicide. Other constructs differentiating roofers’ suicides from other suicides included marital status, gender, and race. Roofers were less protected by marriage. Conclusion The results inform prevention efforts and substance misuse can serve as a key warning sign for roofers’ suicide. This is the first investigation of the drivers of suicide among roofers, and one of a few drawing links between occupational injury and suicide.

Opiate Use and Rise in U.S. Suicide Rates: a Network Analysis Approach on the National Violent Death Reporting System Data

Opiate Use and Rise in U.S. Suicide Rates: a Network Analysis Approach on the National Violent Death Reporting System Data

Preventable deaths involving falls in England and Wales, 2013-22: a systematic case series of coroners' reports.

Falls in older people are common, leading to significant harm including death. Coroners have a duty to report cases where action should be taken to prevent future deaths, but dissemination of their findings remains poor. To identify preventable fall-related deaths, classify coroner concerns and explore organisational responses. A retrospective systematic case series of coroners' Prevention of Future Deaths (PFD) reports, from July 2013 (inception) to November 2022. England and Wales. Reproducible data collection methods were used to web-scrape and read PFD reports. Demographic information, coroner concerns and responses from organisations were extracted and descriptive statistics used to synthesise data. Five hundred and twenty-seven PFDs (12.5% of PFDs) involved a fall that contributed to death. These deaths predominantly affected older people (median 82years) in the community (72%), with subsequent death in hospital (70.8%). A high proportion of cases experienced fractures (51.6%), major bleeding (35.9%) or head injury (38.7%). Coroners frequently raised concerns regarding falls risks assessments (20.9%), failures in communication (20.3%) and documentation issues (17.5%). Only 56.7% of PFDs received a response from organisations to whom they were addressed. Organisations tended to produce new protocols (58.5%), improve training (44.6%) and commence audits (34.3%) in response to PFDs. One in eight preventable deaths in England and Wales involved a fall. Addressing concerns raised by coroners should improve falls prevention and care following falls especially for older adults, but the poor response rate may indicate that lessons are not being learned. Wider dissemination of PFD findings may help reduce preventable fall-related deaths in the future.

Morphological Study of Hemiscorpius Peters, 1861 (Scorpiones: Hemiscorpiidae) in Hormozgan Province, Southern Iran.

Hemiscorpius species are distributed in Africa and Asia. Seven species of this genus have been identified in Iran of which six species have been reported from Hormozgan province. Members of this genus are the most dangerous scorpions in Iran. corpions were collected by moving stones during the day and searching at night using portable UV lights from 2011 to 2022 from different areas in Hormozgan province. Three species were identified from Hormozgan province including Hemiscorpius acanthocercus, H.enischnocela and H. shahii which are endemic to Iran. These species have limited distribution and were reported only from the south of Iran. The number of trichobothria are 3, 10-12 and 15-17 in H. acanthocercus, H. enischnochela and H. shahii, respectively. The measured values showed that H. Shahii is larger than H. enischnochela and H. acanthocercus. Specimens of H. acanthocercus are brown to dark brown samples with dark metasomal segment V. There have been reports of death from biting this species. Members of H. enischnochela are light brown to yellow samples. Members of H. Shahii are large brown samples. All three species have sexual dimorphism. Although these three species can be distinguished based on their morphological characters, the molecular investigation is needed to confirm the validity of all species of this genus. Identifying species and determining their distribution range is very useful in facilitating education and treatment management.

Management of Localized Prostate Cancer in Men With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Analysis of a Large Retrospective Cohort.

We aimed to characterize the clinicopathological characteristics and outcomes of HIV-positive patients with clinically localized, prostate cancer (PCa). A retrospective study was conducted of HIV-positive patients from a single institution with elevated PSA and diagnosis of PCa by biopsy. PCa features, HIV characteristics, treatment type, toxicities, and outcomes were analyzed by descriptive statistics. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine progression-free survival (PFS). Seventy-nine HIV-positive patients were included with a median age at PCa diagnosis of 61 years-old and median duration from HIV infection to PCa diagnosis of 21 years. The median PSA level at diagnosis and Gleason Score was 6.85 ng/mL and 7, respectively. The 5-year PFS was 82.5% with the lowest survival observed in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP)+radiation therapy (RT), followed by cryosurgery (CS). There were no reports of PCa-specific deaths, and the 5-year overall survival was 97.5%. CD4 count declined post-treatment in pooled treatment groups that included RT (P=.02). We present the characteristics and outcomes of the largest cohort of HIV-positive men with prostate cancer in published literature. RP and RT ± ADT is well-tolerated in HIV-positive patients with PCa as seen by the adequate biochemical control and mild toxicity. CS resulted in worse PFS compared to alternative treatments for patients within the same PCa risk group. A decline in CD4 counts was observed in patients treated RT, and further studies are needed to investigate this relationship. Our findings support the use of standard-of-care treatment for localized PCa in HIV-positive patients.