Renewable Electricity Scenario Research Articles

Electricity system optimisation based on python model for renewable electricity generation portfolio

100% renewable electricity scenarios have received great attention from industry and policy makers, this is due to its widespread need for technical, economical, and renewable integration action plans. In this research, a python model named WIBSS, is developed and tested for adequacy using sensitivity analysis and then used to simulate the Irish electricity system.In this investigation, the optimal cost was identified with the installed capacities needed for the electricity system for high electricity demand scenario, and the generation portfolios for the electricity system in Ireland is proposed.The electricity system parameters are determined and the levelised cost of electricity is optimised and tabulated. In this investigation, the optimal solution is identified to decrease curtailment and minimize the total cost. Overlay graphs are plotted, and the optimal renewable sources combinations are presented.This research of determining generation portfolios toward 100% renewable electricity systems demonstrates simulations of two different pathways for 2030 scenarios to meet electricity demand in Republic of Ireland. The renewable energy target appeared in the government climate action plan and the authors renewable energy target determined based on the simulation of the python model, with more than doubled photovoltaic installation, a significant reduction in offshore wind, and a substantial integration of battery capacity, the authors renewable energy target performs better than renewable energy target, the levelised cost of electricity were 57.22 €/mWh and 51.11 €/mWh respectively. The least cost pathway is extended to balance between electricity generation and electricity demand in 2040 scenario, and keys target were proposed for generation portfolios.

SEWGS integration in a direct reduction steelmaking process for CO2 mitigation

The iron and steel industry represents one of the most carbon intensive sectors accounting for roughly 25% of CO2 emissions generated by the industrial sectors and for 7% of total energy sector emissions. The aim of this work is to assess the techno-economic analysis of the integration of the SEWGS technology in the DRI-EAF process to reduce the carbon footprint of this steelmaking route. The study has been carried out using plant data taken from literature and investigating possibilities of GHG mitigation by introducing carbon-capture technologies such as MEA and MDEA scrubbing or the SEWGS technology. The latter solution shows environmental and economic advantages compared to the cases based on amine scrubbing. A reduction of CO2 emissions close to 90%, with respect to the BF-BOF route, can be achieved with the implementation of the SEWGS when a renewable electricity scenario is considered. Economic KPIs such as the Levelised Cost of Hot Rolled Coil and the Cost of CO2 avoided have been computed for all the plants. In addition, a sensitivity analysis on natural gas and electricity prices has been carried out. The integration of the SEWGS technology represents a promising solution for the reduction of the carbon footprint of the DRI-EAF process and, potentially, it could be commercially viable in the near future considering that the DRI and EAF processes are already globally commercialised.

Tradeoffs in life cycle water use and greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen production pathways

Hydrogen has been promoted as a key component of global decarbonization efforts, with various past studies estimating carbon emissions for several production pathways, but little past work has considered its water resource needs. This life cycle analysis considers hydrogen production on a per-kilogram basis for 11 pathways, fossil and non-fossil. It also includes impacts of treating water to the required quality for hydrogen production. Greenhouse gas emissions results were in a range of −15 to +31 kg CO2e/kg H2 produced. Water consumption varied more widely, from about 7 to 55 kg water/kg H2 for fossil-based pathways and 530 to 3400 kg water/kg H2 for biomass-based pathways. Electrolysis with various renewable electricity scenarios were also modeled. Overall, there are challenging tradeoffs to be navigated to achieve a low carbon and water footprint in hydrogen economy.

Use of nested multi-regional input–output analysis for the evaluation of subnational emission reduction policies: A case of Japanese prefectures

Many subnational regions around the world, in their own capacity for policy formulation and implementation, have set targets for net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions. However, most targets do not consider consumption-based emissions, which include emissions generated outside their borders to produce the products they consume. It is partly due to methodological difficulties and data gaps that subnational governments often face but this situation could misguide their efforts in the face of the goal of reducing global emissions. To facilitate an understanding of consumption-based subnational carbon emissions and informed subnational policymaking, this study proposes a relatively simple and less data-intensive methodology for subnational consumption-based emission analysis. It uses a nested multi-regional input–output approach by combining a publicly available global multi-regional input–output table and a subnational input–output table, whose computation is repeated for multiple regions for comparison. A case study of three Japanese prefectures with different levels of renewable electricity consumption was conducted using the 2015 datasets. The results showed that two prefectures with similar socioeconomic conditions, except for their totally different renewable electricity ratios (90 % and 4.6 %), exhibited a 25 % difference (4.4- and 6.0-ton CO2) in per capita household consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions in 2015. Counterfactual policy scenarios were analyzed using the constructed models. Application of an increased renewable electricity scenario indicated that an approximate 10 % increase in the prefectural renewable electricity ratio could reduce household per capita consumption-based emissions by 151–179 kg CO2 in those prefectures. Consumption-based emissions disaggregated by product category indicated that increasing the renewable electricity ratio had significant consumption-based emission reduction effects on not only electricity itself but also on services, particularly commerce, hotel, and restaurant services. The potential impacts of changing renewable electricity ratios on consumption-based emissions were found to be high for products whose share in household spending on local products and electricity cost in their production was large. A scenario analysis of home electrification, assuming the total replacement of household fuel gases and kerosene with electricity, resulted in a modest consumption-based emission reduction potential of less than 10 % for a prefecture with a high renewable electricity ratio and even showed a slight emission increase for a prefecture with a low renewable electricity ratio. In using commonly available datasets without the need to model trade flows between subnational regions, this study's method could realistically be applied by subnational governments to estimate consumption-based emissions of their jurisdiction, compared with other regions, and analyze the potential effects of emission reduction policy scenarios.

Thermal Storage Power Plants (TSPP) - Operation modes for flexible renewable power supply

The paper at hand presents a simulation model for Thermal Storage Power Plants (TSPP). Such plants can theoretically cover highly variable residual load patterns during the transition from fossil to renewable electricity supply. TSPP can use electricity surplus from the grid, photovoltaic power and biomass or – during transition – natural gas as primary energy sources in order to generate highly flexible power just on demand. The core of a TSPP is a Carnot Battery consistent of an electric heater, a large-scale high-temperature heat storage and a Rankine power cycle. Gas turbines with waste heat recovery can be added for occasional peak loads that exceed the capacity of the steam turbine.After a brief introduction that explains the challenges of the energy transition that can be tackled by TSPP, the paper describes basic configurations and operation modes and the equations and parameters of the simulation model used for this analysis. After that, the feasibility of TSPP is tested for different configurations by modelling their technical and economical performance in the frame of highly variable residual load patterns derived from a 90% renewable electricity scenario in Germany. Finally, the results of this analysis and an outlook for further work are discussed.

Jordan toward a 100% renewable electricity system

Jordan has faced two major energy crises during the past two decades; the disruption of Iraqi's oil in 2003 and Egyptian's natural gas in 2011. Restructuring Jordan's electricity supply system became a national necessity to secure sustainable electricity at affordable prices. In this work, a 100% renewable electricity supply scenario is constructed and compared with three other scenarios, which contain a mix of natural gas, nuclear, oil shale and renewable energy, in terms of techno-economic feasibility, security of supply, and carbon dioxide emissions. All the proposed scenarios were found to be economically feasible. The cumulative discount production costs, over the coming thirty five years under different fuel prices assumption, is less than 80 billion dollars (2010 dollar) for all proposed scenario. In the 100% renewable electricity scenario, the country needs around 10.6 GW of concentrated solar power, 4.5 GW of wind, and 25 GW of photovoltaic to meet the demand in the year 2050 which are achievable in terms of energy resources. The dispatchability problem of the renewable scenario was solved by proposing a 90 GWh storage system (43 CSP plants, 250 MW each, 8 h storage). Furthermore, import dependency and CO2 emission will entirely disappear by 2050 in the renewable scenario.

A novel framework for development and optimisation of future electricity scenarios with high penetration of renewables and storage

Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels, it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore, this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model, PowerGAMA, to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix, including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than, or equal to, today’s costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today’s costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn, compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand, despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore, the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.

Thermal Management of Dynamic Operation of Solid Oxide Cell-Based Energy Storage System for 2 Renewable Electricity Scenarios

The increasing contribution of renewable energy sources (RES) to the power generation sector has motivated researchers to devise new methods for reliable energy storage systems. The significance of mechanisms for storing large amounts of electricity for longer time-scales is accentuated by the dynamics of renewable electricity generation that depend upon the season of the year, time of day, and the location. Conventional large-scale electricity storage technologies such as pumped-hydro and compressed-air storage systems are limited by geographical features (e.g., access to a cavern or high elevations). Traditional rechargeable batteries are limited by the fact that energy and power capacities do not scale independently. One of the promising and multipurpose techniques for storing electricity from these fluctuating renewable sources such as wind and solar, is conversion of the electric power to sustainable and carbon free gaseous fuel like hydrogen (power-to-gas (P2G)). In fact, owing to its diverse applications and worthwhile features such as high gravimetric energy density, hydrogen has become an attractive means of delivering renewable energy to many heavy-duty transport and industrial processes that are difficult to electrify. The renewable hydrogen produced from these zero emission electricity sources could be stored in caverns or injected into existing natural gas grids, initially at low concentrations as mixed with natural gas and ultimately piecewise replacing natural gas in the system. The stored hydrogen could be utilized in transportation for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), in power generation for stationary fuel cells or in chemical industries as a feedstock for chemical synthesis of low-carbon fuels or other products, enabling the eventual decarbonization of all energy conversion. One of the efficient and cost-effective techniques for electrochemical conversion of electricity to hydrogen is steam electrolysis using solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC). The steam electrolysis reaction is intrinsically an endothermic reaction for which the required energy is to be supplied as electricity or heat or a combination of both. High temperature electrolyzers, such as SOEC, benefit from both lower energy required for the electrochemical reactions and an ability to provide part of the endothermic energy demand with the heat content of the inlet streams. At high current densities, SOEC can operate exothermically, meaning that the heat generation due to the losses and electricity supply are greater than the endothermic energy demand. When the SOEC systems are connected to intermittent renewable sources like solar or wind, the varying electricity profile will cause the SOEC operation to dynamically switch between endothermic to exothermic modes and all levels of endothermicity and exothermicity in between. This transient behavior of the electrolyzer could lead to highly dynamic thermal response that could have detrimental effects on thermal stress and degradation. In this work, an energy storage system (ESS) is designed in Matlab/Simulink which simulates the dynamic operation of an integrated SOEC system applied to an intermittent RES. The main focus of the research is the thermal management of the SOEC stack during highly dynamic operation throughout the entire operating regime from highly endothermic to thermo-neutral and to highly exothermic operation. An additional thermal management challenge is to keep the SOEC system hot during periods of non-operation (hot standby). These challenges are addressed in the current work by a novel system design that integrates a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) with the SOEC and combines several control strategies within the balance of plant (BoP). For thermal balance of the system the SOFC exothermicity is used to reduce the dependence of the system on electric heaters. The SOFC system oxidizes a fraction of the renewable hydrogen produced by SOEC and generates heat and electricity. A heat exchanger network is designed to convey the SOFC heat to the SOEC for a wide range of endothermic conditions. The main function of SOFC is to keep the SOEC warm when it is not operating or when it is operating in highly endothermic regions. The proposed configuration is integrated with 2 different patterns of electricity production from RES: one representing measured wind dominant RES such as that in Germany, and one representing solar dominant RES such as that in California. Dynamic analysis of the system in terms of the electric power generated by RES for these 2 conditions is presented. The response of different parameters in the system to keep the integrated system warm, self-sustaining, and within desired limits for lower thermal stress and degradation are presented. These parameters include required SOFC power, voltage and temperature profiles of both SOEC and SOFC, BoP parasitic consumption, system efficiencies, hydrogen production amounts, consumption, and storage levels during transient operation.

Cost optimization for the 100% renewable electricity scenario for the Java-Bali grid

A 100% renewable electricity supply is no insurmountable technical problem anymore after the respective technologies to harvest the energy from multiple renewable energy sources have been developed and have reached a high level of maturity. A problem may rather be suspected to reside on the economic side of an exclusively renewable electricity supply. The present study examines the economic implications of a renewable energy scenario for the Java-Bali grid. Based on given energy supply scenarios, the costs of an electricity supply from renewable energy sources alone are determined. Economic optimum configurations are determined for which the annual system costs and accordingly the power generation costs are minimized. First the system running costs are considered, i.e. the operation and maintenance costs as well as the costs of the continuous renovation of system components, while capital costs are not taken into account. After this the capital costs are taken into consideration, and total system costs and power generation costs are determined. The main result is a specification of economic optimum system configurations. One important result is that a future electricity supply from renewable resources alone is not more expensive than the current power generation in developed countries. Another result is that the integration of special long-term storage into the Java-Bali grid, like for instance methane storages, besides pumped storages and batteries, is not economically favourable if further moderate battery cost reductions are reached.Article History: Received May 18th 2018; Received in revised form August 16th 2018; Accepted October 1st 2018; Available onlineHow to Cite This Article: Günther, M., Eichinger, M., (2018) Cost Optimization for the 100% Renewable Electricity Scenario for the Java-Bali Grid, International Journal of Renewable Energi Development, 7(3), 269-276.https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.7.3.269-276

A 100% Renewable Energy Scenario for the Java-Bali Grid

Currently, many countries try to satisfy their energy needs with an increasing usage of renewable resources. The general motivations, with varying weighting in the different countries, are ecological reasons, concerns about energy security, and economical considerations. A for now rather theoretical question, although interesting for opening a long-term perspective, is how an energy supply from exclusively renewable energy resources could look like. This question has to be answered individually for any specific energy supply system. The present paper has the objective to present and evaluate a scenario for an electricity supply only from renewable energy resources for the Java-Bali grid. After designing a load time series for the year 2050 for the Java-Bali grid, a scenario is developed how to cover the load with electricity from renewable energy resources alone. Assumptions about the usable energy sources are made as well as assumptions about the available power plant capacity or energy potential. A specific challenge is the fact that solar energy must be the main source in such a renewable-energy based system, which comes with the need for a large storage capacity to match the power supply at any time with the load. Several possibilities are presented how to bring down the storage capacity: the increment of the installed PV capacity, the usage of bioenergy for seasonal balancing, and the complementation of the proposed short-term storage with an additional long-term storage. The study shows some of the specific challenges that a gradual transformation of the current electricity supply system on Java and Bali into a renewable-energy-based one would face and gives some hints about how to cope with these challenges. Scenarios like the one designed in this study are an important tool for decision-makers who face the task to scrutinize the consequences of choosing between different development paths. Article History: Received: August 15th 2017; Received: October 18th 2017; Accepted: January 14th 2018; Available onlineHow to Cite This Article: Günther, M., Ganal, I. and Bofinger, S. (2018) A 100% Renewable Electricity Scenario for the Java-Bali Grid. Int. Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 7(1), 13-22.https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.7.1.13-22

A review on global renewable electricity scenario

Global exploitation of renewable energy technologies is increasing rapidly due to the concern in global warming and dwindling supplies of fossil fuels. Most of the countries in the world are blessed with two or more renewable energy sources (RES) and hence have formulated policies to boost the utilization of RES for their electricity production. An assessment of renewable electricity scenario is essential for research and development related works in the field of renewable energy technologies in order to further develop the renewable energy industry. Recent developments in installation capacities, costs and reductions in electricity costs of major RES based electricity generation methods are discussed in this paper. It also includes the past growth and future expectations of renewable electricity production. The analysis shows that if the current developments in renewable industry continue, then a major share of global electricity production in the future could be supplied by renewable energy technologies. The analysis further shows that a significant amount of fuel cost and pollutants emission can be reduced by the increased use of RES based electrical power production technologies.

Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplied transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario.

Impacts on the biophysical economy and environment of a transition to 100% renewable electricity in Australia

We investigate the impacts on the biophysical economy, employment and environment of a transition scenario to an energy-efficient, 100% renewable electricity (RE) system by 2060, based on wind, solar and biomass technologies, and an introduction of electric vehicles. We employ a CSIRO process-based model of the physical activity of Australia’s economy and environmental resources, the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework. The RE systems are assumed to be manufactured in Australia to identify possible employment benefits. In comparison with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, on a national scale, the RE scenario has much lower economy-wide net emissions, remaining below contemporary levels and becoming zero in the electricity sector by 2060. Compared with BAU, the RE scenario also has significantly lower industrial water use, somewhat higher materials use, slightly lower unemployment, lower net foreign debt (relative to a GDP proxy) and, resulting from the growth in electric vehicles, reduced oil imports. The GDP per capita growth, based on the physical stocks of capital and labour, is virtually the same in both scenarios. Hence, from the viewpoint of the biophysical economy, there are no major barriers to implementing policies to facilitate the transition to a 100% renewable electricity system for Australia.