Abstract
Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels, it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore, this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model, PowerGAMA, to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix, including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than, or equal to, today’s costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today’s costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn, compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand, despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore, the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables.
Highlights
Electricity generation is responsible for approximately 25% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
In an attempt to contribute to this effort, this paper proposes a new framework – Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) – with the aim of designing optimal power systems dominated by renewables
These show the estimated installed capacity, capacity factors and electricity generation of different sources taking into account the annual new-build capacity limits of 260 MW (BAU260 and RE260) and 750 MW (BAU750 and RE750)
Summary
Electricity generation is responsible for approximately 25% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has highlighted the importance of the decarbonisation of electricity supply and deployment of renewables as key mitigation measures for the sector [1]. A recent study showed that, between 2014 and 2016, the global energy-related CO2 emissions have remained constant after decades of increase [2]. The development of renewable technologies, such as solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind, has been crucial in achieving this, allowing them to become more competitive and triggering further increase in investment in recent years. This has been stimulated by policy in different regions.
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