Renewable Electricity Capacity Research Articles

Climate change impacts of bioenergy technologies: A comparative consequential LCA of sustainable fuels production with CCUS

The use of sustainable biomass can be a cost-effective way of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions in the maritime and aviation sectors. Biomass, however, is a limited resource, and therefore, it is important to use the biomass where it creates the highest value, not only economically, but also in terms of GHG reductions. This study comprehensively evaluates the GHG reduction potential of utilising forestry residue in different bioenergy technologies using a consequential LCA approach. Unlike previous studies that assess GHG impacts per unit of fuel produced, this research takes a feedstock-centric approach which enables comparisons across systems that yield diverse products and by-products. Three technologies—combined heat and power plant with carbon capture, hydrothermal liquefaction, and gasification—are assessed, while considering both carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and utilisation (CCU). Through scenario analysis, the study addresses uncertainty, and assumptions in the LCA modelling. It explores the impact of energy systems, fuel substitution efficiency, renewable energy expansion, and the up/down stream supply chain. All technology pathways showed a potential for net emissions savings when including avoided emissions from substitution of products, with results varying from −111 to −1742 kgCO2eq per tonne residue. When combining the bioenergy technologies with CCU the dependency on the energy system in which they are operated was a significantly higher compared to CCS. The breakpoint was found to be 44 kg CO2eq/kWh electricity meaning that the marginal electricity mix has to be below this point for CCU to obtain lower GHG emissions. Furthermore, it is evident that the environmental performance of CCU technologies is highly sensitive to how it will affect the ongoing expansion of renewable electricity capacity.

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Causal effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on renewable investments and generation: The role of heterogeneity and dynamics

Despite a 30-year long history, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) remain controversial and debates continue to surround their efficacy in leading the low-carbon transition in the electricity sector. Contributing to the ongoing debates is the lack of definitive causal evidence on their impact on investments in renewable capacity and generation. This paper provides the most detailed analysis to date of the impact of RPSs on renewable electricity capacity investments and on generation. We use state-level data from 1990–2019 and recent econometric methods designed to address dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects in a staggered adoption panel data design. We find that, on average, RPS policies increase wind generation capacity by 600–1200 MW, a 44% increase, but have no significant effect on investments in solar capacity. Additionally, we demonstrate that RPSs have slow dynamic effects: most of the capacity additions occur 5 years after RPS implementation. Estimates for wind and solar electricity generation mimic those for capacity investments. We also find similar results using an alternate treatment definition that allows states to meet their RPS requirements with pre-existing renewable generation and renewable generation from nearby states.

Can Bitcoin mining increase renewable electricity capacity?

Proponents of Bitcoin argue that demand for electricity from Bitcoin miners can lead to an increase in renewable electricity capacity. We rigorously evaluate this claim by estimating a Bitcoin electricity demand curve and include this demand curve in a long-run model of the Texas electricity market. We find that while Bitcoin mining can indeed increase renewable capacity, it also increases carbon emissions. When Bitcoin miners provide grid management services in the form of demand response, their emissions impact is largely mitigated.

A Review of Renewable Electricity Cost and Capacity Factor Impact on Green Hydrogen Levelized Cost in Off-grid Configuration

Green hydrogen development is still at a niche stage and faces several technical & commercial barriers. Among them is the high LCOH (Levelized Cost of Hydrogen) of green hydrogen, predominantly due to the cost of renewable electricity. In recent years, several research studies have focused on finding the most cost-effective renewable electricity option to feed electrolyzers for producing green hydrogen. However, their findings suggest that renewable electricity costs vary widely between solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind technologies based on the meteorological conditions of the location. With a focus on the United Kingdom (UK), this paper does a high-level business case analysis to assess renewable electricity options considering their impact on the green hydrogen LCOH in off-grid configuration. The paper uses the cost and capacity factors of renewable electricity generated from solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind in the UK. The paper discusses how offshore wind electricity in an off-grid configuration could be the most effective in bringing down the green hydrogen LCOH and reducing offshore wind curtailments in the UK.

A Review of Renewable Electricity Cost and Capacity Factor Impact on Green Hydrogen Levelized Cost in Off-grid Configuration

Green hydrogen development is still at a niche stage and faces several technical & commercial barriers. Among them is the high LCOH (Levelized Cost of Hydrogen) of green hydrogen, predominantly due to the cost of renewable electricity. In recent years, several research studies have focused on finding the most cost-effective renewable electricity option to feed electrolyzers for producing green hydrogen. However, their findings suggest that renewable electricity costs vary widely between solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind technologies based on the meteorological conditions of the location. With a focus on the United Kingdom (UK), this paper does a high-level business case analysis to assess renewable electricity options considering their impact on the green hydrogen LCOH in off-grid configuration. The paper uses the cost and capacity factors of renewable electricity generated from solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind in the UK. The paper discusses how offshore wind electricity in an off-grid configuration could be the most effective in bringing down the green hydrogen LCOH and reducing offshore wind curtailments in the UK.

Carbon offsetting and renewable energy development

AbstractNew carbon crediting and offsetting mechanisms are being developed under the Paris Agreement. Polluters can meet their emission reduction targets by acquiring and retiring carbon offset credits. Globally, most of these credits come from renewable energy sources. However, their additionality is increasingly questionable. Global renewable electricity capacity continues to grow. Greenhouse gas emissions from coal‐fired power generation are starting to fall, as governments and organisations pledge to curtail emissions, more capital is mobilised for energy transition, and renewable energy technologies become commercially competitive. The opportunity to earn carbon offset credits is becoming less indispensable to renewable energy development. Aggregate emissions could rise above the baseline level when polluters increase their emission budgets by using carbon credits generated from a renewable energy installation that is part of the baseline scenario. To safeguard environmental integrity, the conditions for including renewable energy in carbon crediting and offsetting schemes should be reconsidered.

Assessing the design and the outcome of the new renewable electricity auctions in Spain

Similarly to other countries in the EU, Spain has very ambitious renewable electricity targets for the 2030 timeframe. According to its National Climate and Energy Plan, 74% of electricity will have to be generated from renewable electricity sources. This means that around 60 GW of new renewable electricity capacity (mostly wind and solar PV) will have to be deployed in the next decade, which will certainly be a challenge. Auctions are the main instrument to reach those targets. A radically different design of the auctions was adopted in 2020 and already four auctions have been conducted with the new design. Based on an analysis of official data and secondary sources, the aim of this article is to assess the main design features and the outcome of those auctions. The design of the auction is considered to be appropriate. However, the ex-ante effectiveness of the auction has decreased over the auction rounds. Similarly, support cost efficiency was very high in the first auction and decreased over auction rounds (higher bid prices) due to the higher costs of materials, logistics and financing. Finally, technological and actor diversity have been low in most auctions.

International competitiveness of low-carbon hydrogen supply to the Northwest European market

This paper analyses which sources of low-carbon hydrogen for the Northwest European market are most competitive, taking into account costs of local production, conversion and transport. Production costs of electrolysis are strongly affected by local renewable electricity costs and capacity factors. Transport costs are the lowest by pipelines for distances under 10,000 km, with costs linearly increasing with distance. For larger distances, transport as ammonia is more efficient, with less relation to distance, despite higher conversion costs. The most competitive low-carbon hydrogen supply to the Northwest European market appears to be local Steam Methane Reforming with Carbon Capture and Storage when international gas prices return back to historical levels. When gas prices, however, remain high, then import from Morocco with electrolysis directly connected to offshore wind generation is found to be the most competitive source of low-carbon hydrogen. These conclusions are robust for various assumptions on costs and capacity factors.

Public support for community microgrid services

Utility-owned community microgrids can provide communities with decentralized grid access to distributed energy resources and improve reliability and resiliency. However, the feasibility of installing microgrids requires rigorous cost-benefit analysis, which should incorporate social values. Currently, the gap in our understanding of ratepayers' preferences for community microgrid services leaves stakeholders guessing. Using a survey-based contingent valuation method, with a referendum-style elicitation format, this paper provides evidence of public support for community microgrid installations in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah (the Four Corners). The Four Corners region is unique in its potential for renewable electricity capacity as well as heterogeneous state policy objectives regarding the transition to clean energy. A split-sample survey of 4783 Four Corner's ratepayers resulted in between 40 and 45% of respondents voting to support a community microgrid installation (after controlling for hypothetical bias) with a median willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $25.44 (divided among 24 months) if the ratepayer received direct benefits, or $13.92 if they received indirect benefits. Ratepayers in Utah were willing to pay the most relative to the other states. Results highlight the impacts of ideological, institutional, and socioeconomic factors on public support and WTP.

Wind energy integration in Africa: development, impacts and barriers

<span>The African renewable energy initiative (AREI), adopted in 2015 by nearly half of the African countries, planned to install 10 GW of renewable energy by the end of 2020 and 300 GW by 2030, of which 100 GW would be wind. These countries have each adopted their own national energy strategy defining their rate of renewable electricity capacity, particularly wind, in the overall energy mix by 2020 and/or 2030. This article aims to assess the implementation of these strategies by evaluating the up-to-date achievements in regards to wind energy and thus infer the AREI realization rate by the end of 2020. It focuses on the wind energy investments of the major African countries while comparing their effective realization rates with those targeted by their national strategies. This article also covers the impact of wind energy integration and the barriers to its development in Africa. Taking into account the recent study published in 2020 by the Global Wind Energy Council which assessed the wind energy potential in Africa at 59 TW, the obtained results show that the huge wind power potential in Africa is still far from being exploited and that only Morocco, Egypt and South Africa are on the right track.</span>

International Comparison of Research and Investments in New Renewable Electricity Technologies: A Focus on the European Union and China

There are many promising renewable energy (RE) technologies that could help increase the contribution of RE in energy supply but which are not yet commercially available. The development rate of new RE technologies depends on many factors, such as Research and Development (R&D) efforts and policies. This study focuses on comparing China’s efforts regarding the development of new RE technologies (e.g., wave and tidal, binary geothermal power, floating solar, micro hydro, osmotic energy, floating offshore wind and vertical axis wind turbines) with those of the European Union (EU). For this purpose, we collected data from publications and databases and analysed several indicators: e.g., the development of renewable electricity generation and capacity, demonstration projects, investments in R&D and patent applications. The results show that China has become a big player globally for mainstream renewable electricity (hydropower, wind and solar PV). This development is due to China’s industrial policy and prioritization of effectiveness over cost efficiency. The main developments in China occurred in the 2010s, while the EU was a frontrunner in the 2000s. For the newer or less mainstream technologies, the application in China is still low, compared to the EU, except for floating solar, where China is a lead player. Regarding patent applications, China has shown a higher application amount compared to the EU since 2006. However, only a small share of China’s patents are valid internationally. We conclude that China has emerged as a big player in mainstream renewable energy technologies over the last decade. In regard to new renewable energy technologies, China is predominantly involved in solar energy and, in comparison to the EU, less in other new technologies (e.g., binary geothermal systems and ocean energy).

The heterogeneous role of energy policies in the energy transition of Asia–Pacific emerging economies

The achievement of sustainable energy systems requires well-designed energy policies, particularly targeted strategies to plan the direction of energy development, regulations monitored and executed through credible authorities and laws enforced by the judicial system for the enhancement of actions and national targets. The Asia–Pacific region (APAC), responsible for more than half of global energy consumption, has enacted a large number of energy policies over the past two decades, but progress on the energy transition remains slow. This study focuses on the aggregate effect of energy policies on the progress towards sustainable targets in 42 emerging economies from 2000 to 2017. We find that energy policies have contributed to improving access to electricity (3.0%), access to clean cooking (3.8%), energy efficiency (1.4%) and renewable electricity capacity (6.9%), respectively. Among different types of energy policy (strategies, laws and regulations), strategies have greater impacts on advancing electrification, clean cooking and renewable electricity capacity than laws and regulations, whereas the laws are more effective for achieving energy efficiency. Measuring the impact of energy policies towards emissions reduction and other sustainability goals is critical for designing effective future policy. Meng et al. assess the impact of energy policies in 42 Asia–Pacific countries and find that strategies are more effective than laws or regulations.

Combining game theory concepts and system dynamics for evaluating renewable electricity development in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa

Renewable electricity development is not a critical concern in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa, where fossil fuels are abundant and accessible. As a result, the growth of fossil-fuel electricity generators reduces renewable electricity competitiveness and slows its development. Since renewable electricity has an insufficient market share (less than 5% of total electricity generation in these countries, according to global statistics), its development should become a priority due to fossil-fuel depletion and demand growth in the future. The present study investigates various scenarios to examine the energy sector's development in countries facing severe competitiveness challenges of renewable electricity. Then, it recommends the most appropriate policies through evaluating the proposed plans' effectiveness. In this regard, a comprehensive framework has been developed by integrating system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling logic, and game theory concepts. This systemic modeling procedure has several advantages, including formation of a macro policymaking perspective, the analysis of renewable electricity development trends, and the simulation of competitors' and investors' reactions and decisions. In this case, Iran is chosen for the study due to being a representative of these countries, and its data have been used to validate the proposed model. Model validation showed less than 9% error between simulation results and real data. Besides, the simulation results indicated that establishing a competitive market and enacting targeted support policies could stimulate the development of renewable electricity up to the year 2060. A presumed combined policy based on efficient simulated scenarios could increase renewable electricity capacity and market share 5-fold and 6-fold by 2035, respectively. Also, it could improve capacity and market share 8-fold and 10-fold by 2060, respectively.

Using Natural Gas Resources to De-Risk Renewable Energy Investments in Lower-Income Countries

Combatting climate change necessitates a substantial global increase in renewable electricity capacity. Many low-income and lower-middle-income countries suffer from unfavorable green financing conditions. Fifteen of these countries possess substantial natural gas reserves. To overcome green financing constraints in such countries, we propose an integrated energy contract that awards a renewable energy project in parallel with an upstream natural gas project to interested energy companies. The state returns from the natural gas project provide a guarantee for renewable energy investments, reducing their associated risks. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations for each of the targeted countries after populating the input parameters for the upstream natural gas and renewable energy projects, including forecasting country-specific natural gas prices. When accounting for 10% of their existing natural gas reserves in the proposed contract, Nigeria, Myanmar, and Indonesia can achieve more than 60% of their 2030 renewable energy target capacity additions while countries with low access to electricity can significantly upscale their installed capacities. The guarantee mechanism provides protection levels exceeding 96% on renewable energy investments. The proposed contract enables the considered countries to increase their renewable energy capacities while inducing economic development.

100% renewable energy in Japan

Low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind offer a reliable and affordable pathway to deep decarbonization of energy, which accounts for three quarters of global emissions. However, large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics and wind requires space and may be challenging for countries with dense population and high per capita energy consumption. This study investigates the future role of renewable energy in Japan as a case study. A 40-year hourly energy balance model is presented of a hypothetical 100% renewable Japanese electricity system using representative demand data and historical meteorological data. Pumped hydro energy storage, high voltage interconnection and dispatchable capacity (existing hydro and biomass and hydrogen energy produced from curtailed electricity) are included to balance variable generation and demand. Differential evolution is used to find the least-cost solution under various constraints. This study shows that Japan has 14 times more solar and offshore wind resources than needed to supply 100% renewable electricity and vast capacity for off-river pumped hydro energy storage. Assuming significant cost reductions of solar photovoltaics and offshore wind towards global norms in the coming decades driven by large-scale deployment locally and global convergence of renewable generation costs, the levelized cost of electricity is found to be US$86/Megawatt-hour for a solar-dominated system, and US$110/Megawatt-hour for a wind-dominated system. These costs can be compared with 2020 average system prices on the spot market in Japan of US$102/Megawatt-hour. Cost of balancing 100% renewable electricity in Japan ranges between US$20–27/Megawatt-hour for a range of scenarios. In summary, Japan can be self-sufficient for electricity supply at competitive costs, provided that the barriers to the mass deployment of solar photovoltaics and offshore wind in Japan are overcome.

Can Bitcoin Mining Increase Renewable Electricity Capacity?

Can Bitcoin Mining Increase Renewable Electricity Capacity?

Timmermans’ dream: An electricity and hydrogen partnership between Europe and North Africa

Because of differences in irradiation levels, it could be more efficient to produce solar electricity and hydrogen in North Africa and import these energy carriers to Europe, rather than generating them at higher costs domestically in Europe. From a global climate change mitigation point of view exploiting such efficiencies can be profitable, since they reduce overall renewable electricity capacity requirements. Yet the construction of this capacity in North Africa would imply costs associated with the infrastructure needed to transport electricity and hydrogen. The ensuing geopolitical dependencies may also raise energy security concerns. With the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN we quantify the trade-off between costs and benefits emanating from establishing import-export links between Europe and North Africa for electricity and hydrogen. We show that for Europe a net price may have to be paid for exploiting such interlinkages, even while they reduce the domestic investments for renewable electricity capacity needed to implement the EU's Green Deal. For North African countries the potential net benefits thanks to trade revenues may build up to 50 billion €/yr in 2050. Despite fears over costs and security, Europe should seriously consider an energy partnership with North Africa, because trade revenues are likely to lead to positive employment, income, and stability effects in North Africa. Europe can indirectly benefit from such impacts.

Do high electricity bills undermine public support for renewables? Evidence from the European Union

The clean energy transition has long been framed in terms of its technological and economic feasibility. An increasingly salient constraint lies in its political feasibility. The transition requires vigorous public support to be completed. Yet increased consumer costs associated with the deployment of renewable electricity could make voters - and, by extension, governments - less supportive of it. As a result, overly aggressive government support for renewables could lead to its own downfall. To examine this threat, I document two stylized facts. First, the expansion of renewable electricity capacity has been followed by an increase in household electricity bills, and this has mostly happened because of energy-specific taxes. An increase of renewable electricity capacity by one within-country standard deviation raises a typical household's bill by €5.7 per MWh (95% CI: [3, 8.3]), most of which comes from an increase in non-VAT taxes (+€3.8/MWh [2.6; 5.1]). Second, these taxes have hurt popular support for aggressive renewable energy policy. An increase of non-VAT taxes by one standard deviation increases the share of people who find renewable energy too ambitious by 0.7 percentage points (95% CI: [0.1; 1.3]). Climbing costs could therefore undermine further political support toward renewable electricity deployment and threaten its contribution to greenhouse gas reductions.

Do renewable portfolio standards increase renewable energy capacity? Evidence from the United States

This research evaluates the impacts of the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on renewable electricity capacity using annual data spanning 47 states between 1990 and 2014 in the United States. RPS is a state-level policy that requires electricity suppliers to include a certain fraction of renewable electricity in their total electricity sales over a specified time period. Following nuanced identification strategies, generalized difference-in-difference method is used to transform observational data into a quasiexperimental setting to mitigate against potentially inconsistent estimator or selection bias concerns vis-à-vis the adoption of RPS across states. Generalized least squares with panel corrected standard errors and spatial econometric methods are selected as estimation techniques. The results show that RPS adoption drives more than one third increase in overall renewable electricity capacity. RPS impacts on total electricity capacity remain significantly positive with consistent estimates across modeling scenarios. However, the results reveal that impacts of heterogeneous RPS attributes differ across competing sources of renewable electricity. The impacts are positively significant for solar and wind capacity with the largest impact on wind capacity, while they are insignificant or significantly negative for biomass and geothermal capacity. The significantly positive contribution of renewable energy certificates provision and manifestation of spatial spillover effects indicate the regional marketing possibilities of renewable energy. The results imply that scaling up RPS proliferation across the states and specifying RPS targets by renewable energy sources at least up to the point when renewable energy sector achieves efficiency gains (economies of scales and allocative efficiency) or better alternatives to the RPS become available (e.g., least-cost carbon pricing policy), can play critical roles to exert transformative advances in renewable electricity sector.