Abstract
Renewable electricity development is not a critical concern in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa, where fossil fuels are abundant and accessible. As a result, the growth of fossil-fuel electricity generators reduces renewable electricity competitiveness and slows its development. Since renewable electricity has an insufficient market share (less than 5% of total electricity generation in these countries, according to global statistics), its development should become a priority due to fossil-fuel depletion and demand growth in the future. The present study investigates various scenarios to examine the energy sector's development in countries facing severe competitiveness challenges of renewable electricity. Then, it recommends the most appropriate policies through evaluating the proposed plans' effectiveness. In this regard, a comprehensive framework has been developed by integrating system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling logic, and game theory concepts. This systemic modeling procedure has several advantages, including formation of a macro policymaking perspective, the analysis of renewable electricity development trends, and the simulation of competitors' and investors' reactions and decisions. In this case, Iran is chosen for the study due to being a representative of these countries, and its data have been used to validate the proposed model. Model validation showed less than 9% error between simulation results and real data. Besides, the simulation results indicated that establishing a competitive market and enacting targeted support policies could stimulate the development of renewable electricity up to the year 2060. A presumed combined policy based on efficient simulated scenarios could increase renewable electricity capacity and market share 5-fold and 6-fold by 2035, respectively. Also, it could improve capacity and market share 8-fold and 10-fold by 2060, respectively.
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