Remaining Useful Life Prediction Model Research Articles

A deep learning approach for supercapacitor remaining useful life prediction using pre-classifying strategy

Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of supercapacitors (SCs) is essential for the application of energy storage systems. In the existing end-to-end RUL prediction methods, there exist large errors in life prediction in SCs, especially in the early cycle prediction. This paper proposes an augmentation of the end-to-end RUL prediction method to improve the precision named pre-classifying. First, the pre-classifying is used to divide SCs’ cycling data into different classes to ensure consistency in each class. Then the end-to-end models are built for each class to predict the RULs. In this work, a novel hybrid model that combines convolutional neural networks and long short-term memory networks is proposed to capture spatiotemporal features from the cycling data. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms various deep neural networks in terms of prediction accuracy. When using the same hybrid model as the backbone, we report competitive results of the pre-classifying method on the public dataset with the root mean square error (RMSE) of 147.67 cycles, a 69.5% improvement compared with the RMSE of 484.18 cycles of the classical end-to-end RUL prediction model. Furthermore, experiment results indicate that the proposed pre-classification method significantly enhances the prediction accuracy of the standard end-to-end RUL prediction method with different deep neural network architectures. These results demonstrate that the pre-classifying method can be a general and effective methodology for RUL prediction of complex SC systems.

Dual-drive RUL Prediction of Gear Transmission Systems based on Dynamic Model and Unsupervised Domain Adaption under Zero Sample

Gear transmission systems are key components in rotating machinery, and its remaining useful life (RUL) prediction can provide adequate leading time for well-timed maintenance. Existing RUL prediction models usually rely on sufficient training data. However, the acquisition of full life cycle dataset of gear transmission system is difficult or impossible. To solve the problem on the difficult startup and poor generalization of prediction model under zero environment, a dual-drive prediction method based on dynamic model of gear transmission system and unsupervised domain adaptation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, a dynamic model of gear transmission system and growth mechanism of local defect is established to generate full-life cycle simulation data. Then, the multi-scale modulation features are extracted based on simulated and measured data. Furthermore, multi-scale temporal convolution operations are introduced into dual-channel unsupervised domain adaptation model. Besides, a compound principle of reverse truncation and forward expansion principle is investigated to determine the first prediction time. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is verified by two kinds of gearbox data. Ablation experiments are carried out to evaluate the contribution of each module in proposed model. In addition, the effectiveness and generalization ability of proposed model are verified when compared with other advanced transfer learning methods.

Fault Diagnosis and Prediction of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of Rolling Element Bearing : A review state of art

Fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings is a critical aspect of machine maintenance and reliability. Bearings are extensively used in various industrial applications, and their failure can lead to costly downtime and equipment damage. Rotating machinery under continuous overload conditions can indeed significantly degrade bearing life and lead to various other issues. To identify issues in rolling element bearings (REB), several techniques and methods are employed. Diagnosing faults in ball bearings while simultaneously estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the bearing is a crucial aspect of predictive maintenance. This can be achieved through a combination of signal processing techniques, machine learning methods, and RUL prediction models. The estimation of a bearing Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is of significant importance in predictive maintenance strategies to avoid unexpected failures, reduce downtime, and optimize maintenance costs. This literature review aims to explore the methodologies, techniques, and advancements in predicting the remaining useful life of bearings.

GRU-AE-wiener: A generative adversarial network assisted hybrid gated recurrent unit with Wiener model for bearing remaining useful life estimation

Bearings play a pivotal role in various mechanical systems, and their health directly impacts the reliability and safety of these systems. Consequently, extensive research has been dedicated to the estimation of Bearing Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through the lens of information fusion theory. The absence of comprehensive life-cycle degradation data for bearings, a common challenge within the information fusion domain, can hinder the accuracy and reliability of RUL prediction models. A novel hybrid data and model approach named GRU-AE-Wiener has been developed to address this limitation. This approach combines the power of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Wiener process models within the information fusion framework. Firstly, a Loop Generative Adversarial Network (Loop-GAN) is introduced to synthesize pseudo data to enhance the quality of synthetic data. Next, a bidirectional GRU model is structurally integrated with the Wiener process. In this design, the GRU model is configured in an Auto-Encoder-like structure, with the Wiener process serving as the hidden layer within this Auto-Encoder. Importantly, both the GRU and Wiener processes are jointly optimized with the assistance of Loop-GAN, emphasizing the collaborative nature of information fusion in this approach. The effectiveness of the proposed GRU-AE-Wiener is validated using the PHM 2012 dataset and XJTU-SY dataset. Experimental results underscore its superior RUL predictive performance compared to other deep learning models, highlighting the practical application of information fusion principles in bearing health assessment.

Rolling Bearing Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on CNN-VAE-MBiLSTM.

Ensuring precise prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) for bearings in rolling machinery is crucial for preventing sudden machine failures and optimizing equipment maintenance strategies. Since the significant interference encountered in real industrial environments and the high complexity of the machining process, accurate and robust RUL prediction of rolling bearings is of tremendous research importance. Hence, a novel RUL prediction model called CNN-VAE-MBiLSTM is proposed in this paper by integrating advantages of convolutional neural network (CNN), variational autoencoder (VAE), and multiple bi-directional long short-term memory (MBiLSTM). The proposed approach includes a CNN-VAE model and a MBiLSTM model. The CNN-VAE model performs well for automatically extracting low-dimensional features from time-frequency spectrum of multi-axis signals, which simplifies the construction of features and minimizes the subjective bias of designers. Based on these features, the MBiLSTM model achieves a commendable performance in the prediction of RUL for bearings, which independently captures sequential characteristics of features in each axis and further obtains differences among multi-axis features. The performance of the proposed approach is validated through an industrial case, and the result indicates that it exhibits a higher accuracy and a better anti-noise capacity in RUL predictions than comparable methods.

Analysis of remaining useful life of slope based on nonlinear wiener process

A remaining useful life (RUL) prediction model based on the nonlinear Wiener process is proposed to better tackle the life evaluation problem in the slope degradation process. Taking the displacement of the slope as its performance degradation index, and the nonlinear Wiener process is used to establish the RUL prediction model of the slope. For this model, the least squares method (LSM) is used to estimate the drift coefficients, the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLEM) is used to estimate the diffusion parameters, and then the probability density function (PDF) of the RUL of the slope is deduced and the RUL is predicted. The proposed model is verified by slope engineering examples. The results demonstrated that the RUL of the degradation model based on the nonlinear Wiener process has a greater prediction accuracy than the linear Wiener process. Because the various nonlinear functions have varying slope adaptations, and it can predict the RUL of a slope more accurately, which can provide more reliable preventive maintenance decisions.

Challenges on prognostics and health management for wind turbine components

This paper explores the applicability of prognostics and health management (PHM) for wind turbines (WTs), presenting the PHM approach along with challenges and opportunities in the context of WT components. First, the PHM framework is introduced, consisting of three blocks: observation, analysis, and action. Critical components and failure modes for WTs are identified, and data acquisition strategies using supervisory control and data adquisition (SCADA) and condition monitoring (CM) data are discussed. Prognostics, specifically remaining useful life (RUL) estimation, employs physics model-based, data-driven, and hybrid models. Finally, challenges and opportunities related to data, analysis and CM, and developing RUL prediction models have been found. Data challenges include data standardization, limited public datasets, and data quality issues. Analysis and CM challenges address new sensorless and non-intrusive techniques, as well as the fusion of data sources. Prognostics model challenges involve uncertainty management, interpretability issues, and the need for online updates. Addressing challenges requires incorporating physical knowledge, utilizing transfer learning, and improving online RUL prediction methods.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Roller Bearings Based on Fractional Brownian Motion

Roller bearing degradation features fractal characteristics such as self-similarity and long-range dependence (LRD). However, the existing remaining useful life (RUL) prediction models are memoryless or short-range dependent. To this end, we propose a RUL prediction model based on fractional Brownian motion (FBM). Bearing faults can happen in different places, and thus their degradation features are difficult to extract accurately. Through variational mode decomposition (VMD), the original degradation feature is decomposed into several components of different frequencies. The monotonicity, robustness and trends of the different components are calculated. The frequency component with the best metric values is selected as the training data. In this way, the performance of the prediction model is hugely improved. The unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood algorithm. The Monte Carlo method is applied to predict the RUL. A case study of a bearing is presented and the prediction performance is evaluated using multiple indicators.

A structural pruning method for lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction model with multi-head attention mechanism

The utilization of data-driven models in predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries has gained traction. However, deploying these models on edge devices presents challenges attributed to their limited generalization capacity and substantial computational demands amidst varying operational conditions. In this study, we formulate a RUL prediction model for lithium-ion batteries by leveraging a multi-layer convolutional network alongside a multi-head attention mechanism. Through the incorporation of a domain adapter and a residual structure, we bolster the model's generalization and anti-overfitting capabilities. Additionally, we introduce an innovative global pruning strategy that hinges on scaling coefficients and adaptive sparse pruning. This strategy outperforms existing pruning methods in terms of model parameter reduction, prediction accuracy, and operational efficiency. The amalgamation of our proposed model and pruning strategy proffers a viable avenue for implementing data-driven models within embedded battery management systems.

A regularized constrained two-stream convolution augmented Transformer for aircraft engine remaining useful life prediction

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is of great significance for maintaining the reliability and safety of industrial equipment. To address the challenges faced by existing methods in simultaneously extracting local and global degradation information from monitoring data. This paper proposes a Two-Stream Convolution Augmented Transformer (TACT) model based on L2 regularization constraint. Specifically, we design the parallel multi-scale Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and Transformer module to combine the local modeling ability of CNN and the global modeling ability of Transformer to improve the overall architecture of RUL prediction model. Moreover, the two-stream network based on the parallel structure also realizes the synchronous extraction of different time steps and sensor features in the sequence. Then, in the process of model training, the prediction reliability constraint is fused, the delay prediction constraint term is introduced, and the L2 regularization loss function is constructed. Finally, extensive experiments on the commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation (C-MAPSS) show that our model provides competitive performance in terms of Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) and Score metrics. Compared to the state-of-the-art method based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) or CNN and its variants, Score is reduced by at least 2.71% and RMSE by at least 3.13%. Compared to the Transformer-based improved method, the Score is decreased by at least 4.54% and the RMSE is decreased by at least 2.78%. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated.

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of MoSi2 Heating Element in a Pusher Kiln Process.

The critical challenge of estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of MoSi2 heating elements utilized in pusher kiln processes is to enhance operational efficiency and minimize downtime in industrial applications. MoSi2 heating elements are integral components in high-temperature environments, playing a pivotal role in achieving optimal thermal performance. However, prolonged exposure to extreme conditions leads to degradation, necessitating precise RUL predictions for proactive maintenance strategies. Since insufficient failure experience deals with Predictive Maintenance (PdM) in real-life scenarios, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) generates specific training data as failure experiences. The Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is the duration of the equipment's operation before repair or replacement, often measured in days, miles, or cycles. Machine learning models are trained using historical data encompassing various operational scenarios and degradation patterns. The RUL prediction model is determined through training, hyperparameter tuning, and comparisons based on the machine-learning model, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) or Support Vector Regression (SVR). As a result, SVR reflects the actual resistance variation, achieving the R-Square (R2) of 0.634, better than LSTM. From a safety perspective, SVR offers high prediction accuracy and sufficient time to schedule maintenance plans.

Optimizing Electric Vehicle Battery Life: A Machine Learning Approach for Sustainable Transportation

Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming increasingly popular, due to their beneficial environmental effects and low operating costs. However, one of the main challenges with EVs is their short battery life. This study presents a comprehensive approach for predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of Nickel Manganese Cobalt-Lithium Cobalt Oxide (NMC-LCO) batteries. This research utilizes a dataset derived from the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, encompassing 14 individual batteries subjected to over 1000 cycles under controlled conditions. A multi-step methodology is adopted, starting with data collection and preprocessing, followed by feature selection and outlier elimination. Machine learning models, including XGBoost, BaggingRegressor, LightGBM, CatBoost, and ExtraTreesRegressor, are employed to develop the RUL prediction model. Feature importance analysis aids in identifying critical parameters influencing battery health and lifespan. Statistical evaluations reveal no missing or duplicate data, and outlier removal enhances model accuracy. Notably, XGBoost emerged as the most effective algorithm, providing near-perfect predictions. This research underscores the significance of RUL prediction for enhancing battery lifecycle management, particularly in applications like electric vehicles, ensuring optimal resource utilization, cost efficiency, and environmental sustainability.

Digital twin-driven graph domain adaptation neural network for remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is significant for the healthy operation of machinery. In order to accurately identify the bearing degeneration states, it is necessary to collect massive full lifecycle data. However, the bearing lifecycle data is insufficient for effectively training a RUL prediction model in engineering practice. In this paper, a digital twin-driven graph domain adaptation method is proposed. First, a full lifecycle dynamic twin model of bearings is constructed to generate abundant twin data, in which the surface morphology evolution and roller relative slip at different stages are simulated to generate vibration responses. Second, a novel multi-layered cross-domain gated graph convolutional network (MGGCN) is developed, in which a new graph domain adaptation model is designed to solve the problem that traditional domain adaptation methods are not effective in processing the non-Euclidean data. The spatial and temporal features are extracted by multiple nonlinear transformations and previous time-step hidden state incorporation, respectively. In addition, a graph Laplacian regularized maximum mean discrepancy (GLMMD) is designed and applied in the training of model to enhance the capability of discerning graph domain differences. The experimental results confirm that the proposed method can achieve effective performance even in scenarios with limited actual data.

Failure mode division and remaining useful life prognostics of multi-indicator systems with multi-fault

Modern large-scale industrial systems are complex in structure, and their health states are usually reflected by multiple indicators. The performance degradation of multiple indicators surpasses respective threshold, causing multiple system faults, and multiple failure modes such as redundancy, fusion, and competition among different fault combinations exist, introducing new challenges when predicting remaining useful life (RUL) of the system. This study aims to establish a unified multi-failure mode division framework and the RUL prediction model under different failure modes for multi-indicator systems. Firstly, combination relationship between different fault types caused by multi-indicators outweighing their threshold is analyzed, and different redundancy, fusion, and competition failure modes are defined. Next, the formal fault type definition and its remaining time before occurrence under different failure modes are provided. The distribution calculation model of remaining time for different fault types is derived. The corresponding system's RUL prediction model under multi-fault competition is established, and degradation modeling, parameter estimation, and RUL distribution calculation are performed using the state-space model. Eventually, the validity of the RUL prediction model according to multiple failure modes is verified by numerical experiments. Taking XJTU-SY bearing and C-MAPSS datasets as two examples, the applicability and feasibility of the given method are proved.

Data-model linkage prediction of tool remaining useful life based on deep feature fusion and Wiener process

Accurately predicting the tool remaining useful life (RUL) is critical for maximizing tool utilization and saving machining costs. Various physical model-based or data-driven prediction methods have been developed and successfully applied in different machining operations. However, many uncertain factors affect tool RUL during the cutting process, making it challenging to create a precise physical model to characterize the degradation of tool performance. The success of the purely data-driven technique depends on the amount and quality of the training samples, it does not consider the physical law of tool wear, and the interpretability of the prediction results is poor. This paper presents a data-model linkage approach for tool RUL prediction based on deep feature fusion and Wiener process to address the above limitations. A convolutional stacked bidirectional long short-term memory network with time-space attention mechanism (CSBLSTM-TSAM) is developed in the data-driven module to fuse the multi-sensor signals collected during the cutting process and then obtain the mapping relationship between signal features and tool wear values. In the physical modeling module, a three-stage tool RUL prediction model based on the nonlinear Wiener process is established by considering the evolution law of different wear stages and multi-layer uncertainty, and the corresponding probability density function is derived. The real-time estimated tool wear of the data-driven module is used as the observed value of the physical model, and the model parameters are dynamically updated by the weight-optimized particle filter (WOPF) algorithm under a Bayesian framework, thereby realizing the data-model linkage tool RUL prediction. Milling experiments demonstrate that the proposed method not only improves RUL prediction accuracy, but also has good generalization ability and robustness for prediction tasks under different working conditions.

Meta-learning with deep flow kernel network for few shot cross-domain remaining useful life prediction

Reliable prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) is important for improving maintenance efficiency, equipment availability, and avoiding catastrophic accidents in complex industrial systems. Existing RUL prediction models have made some contribution, relying mainly on a large amount of degraded data with similar patterns or approximate distributions. However, in practical industrial systems, only a small amount of labeling data is usually available, which may also come from different devices and different working conditions, resulting in different distributions in the degraded data. This situation makes the existing RUL methods difficult to achieve satisfactory generalization performance. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel Meta-Learning with Deep Flow Kernel Network (MetaDFKN) model for RUL prediction under the few shot and cross-domain conditions. The model first learns kernel features in a data-driven manner and considers them as latent variables to improve the model’s representative ability of shared knowledge between tasks. Then, we introduce the conditional normalized flow technique to infer richer posterior distributions in the kernel features, which helps to obtain feature information with stronger discriminative power. Moreover, shared knowledge and task-specific information are integrated into the contextual inference process, which can mine the dependencies of related tasks and capture richer domain information. Finally, to evaluate the proposed model, we conduct extensive experiments on engine and bearings degradation data, and the results verify the superiority of the model.

A RUL prediction method of rolling bearings based on degradation detection and deep BiLSTM

<abstract> <p>In order to grasp the degradation of rolling bearings and prevent the failure of mechanical equipment, a remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method of rolling bearings based on degradation detection and deep bidirectional long short-term memory networks (BiLSTM) was proposed, considering the incomplete degradation feature extraction and low prediction accuracy of existing methods. By extracting the characteristics of time domain, frequency domain, and time-frequency domain of the full-life bearing vibration signal, the monotonicity, trend, and robustness measurement indexes of each feature were calculated. The best feature set that can fully reflect the degradation information was constructed by ranking the weighted comprehensive indexes of the features. A degradation detection strategy was used to determine the degradation starting time for setting piecewise linear network label. The RUL prediction model based on deep BiLSTM was established and optimized through Dropout technology and piecewise learning rate. The model was verified by the full-life data set of rolling bearings. The results showed that compared with the support vector machine (SVM), the traditional recurrent neural network (RNN), the single-layer BiLSTM, and long short-term memory networks (LSTM) model without Dropout, the proposed method fitted the degradation trend best, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was the smallest and only 0.0281, which improved the accuracy of RUL prediction of rolling bearings, helped prevent bearing failure, and ensured the safe and reliable operation of rotating machinery.</p> </abstract>

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of a Planetary Gearbox Based on Meta Representation Learning and Adaptive Fractional Generalized Pareto Motion

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of wind turbine planetary gearboxes is crucial for the reliable operation of new energy power systems. However, the interpretability of the current RUL prediction models is not satisfactory. To this end, a multi-stage RUL prediction model is proposed in this work, with an interpretable metric-based feature selection algorithm. In the proposed model, the advantages of neural networks and long-range-dependent stochastic processes are combined. In the offline training stage, a general representation of the degradation trend is learned with the meta-long short-term memory neural network (meta-LSTM) model. The inevitable measurement error in the sensor reading is modelled by white Gaussian noise. During the online RUL prediction stage, fractional generalized Pareto motion (fGPm) with an adaptive diffusion is employed to model the stochasticity of the planetary gearbox degradation. In the case study, real planetary gearbox degradation data are used for the model validation.

Remaining useful life prediction based on a PCA and similarity methods

Aircraft engine failures or damages not only incur substantial financial losses but also present risks of injuries or even fatalities. Hence, it is of utmost importance to devise an effective method to predict potential failures in advance, thereby mitigating accidents and minimizing losses. This paper proposes a novel approach that combines a principal component analysis (PCA) with similarity methods to establish a degradation trajectory database and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of new engines by identifying similar trajectories. Firstly, the data dimensionality is reduced using a PCA to create a health indicator. The validity of the reduced data is confirmed by calculating the Spearman correlation coefficient between the health indicator and the system RUL. During the similarity comparison process, the Manhattan distance is employed for the similarity calculation, and parameter optimization is performed on the length of selected time segments and the number of chosen similar trajectories to optimize the similarity of RUL prediction model, resulting in the optimal prediction results among all engine test sets. Notably, this paper introduces the feasibility of employing the Manhattan distance in similarity method-based prediction, which is superior to the commonly used Euclidean distance calculation method found in most literature. This finding offers innovative ideas and perspectives for advancing RUL prediction methodologies. By adopting the proposed approach, the occurrence of accidents and losses associated with aircraft engine failures can be substantially reduced, leading to enhanced safety and economic benefits.

Estimation of rolling bearing remaining useful life using DReLU-RA-ConvGRU model based on the encoder–decoder structure

Rolling bearings serve as indispensable core components in modern industrial equipment and they are critical for safety and reliability. Consequently, accurate prediction of their remaining useful life (RUL) is essential and has far-reaching implications. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction model, referred to as the dynamic rectified linear unit-based residual additive attention ConvGRU (DReLU-RA-ConvGRU) model, which is built upon the encoder–decoder structure to accurately predict the RUL of bearings. To overcome the limitation of the original signal, characterized by a single feature and limited degradation information, three-domain features are employed and filtered as inputs to the model. The DReLU component in the proposed RUL prediction model effectively captures variable feature information within the degraded signal, while the ConvGRU component learns both temporal and spatial information with fewer parameters. Additionally, the RA component captures the significant contributors to RUL prediction, and the inclusion of residuals facilitates easier network learning. Furthermore, a three-dimensional visualization of the attention weights was conducted to enhance the interpretability of the network’s prediction process. In order to verify the effectiveness of the method, RUL prediction was conducted using vibration data from the PRONOSTIA platform and compared against several existing methods. The results demonstrate the method’s superior performance and feasibility, as indicated by high scores.