Reliable Prediction Research Articles

Key Ingredients for the Modeling of Single‐Atom Electrocatalysts

AbstractSingle‐atom catalysis is gaining interest also because of its potential applications in a broad spectrum of electrochemical reactions. The reactivity of single‐atom catalysts (SACs) is typically modeled with first principles approaches taking insight from heterogenous catalysis. An increasing number of studies show that the chemistry of SACs is more complex than often assumed, and shares many aspects in common with coordination chemistry. This evidence raises challenges for computational electrocatalysis of SACs. In this perspective we highlight a few fundamental ingredients that one need to consider to provide reliable predictions on the reactivity of SACs for electrochemical applications. We discuss the role of the local coordination of the metal active phase, the need to use self‐interaction corrected functionals, in particular when systems have magnetic ground states. We highlight the formation of unconventional intermediates with respect to classical metal electrodes, the need to include the stability of SACs in electrochemical conditions and the role of solvation in the analysis of new potential catalytic systems. This brief account can be considered as a tutorial underlining the importance of treating the reactivity of SACs. In fact, neglecting some of these aspects could lead to unreliable predictions failing in the design of new electrocatalysts.

Diffusion-driven Incomplete Multimodal Learning for Air Quality Prediction

Predicting air quality using multimodal data is crucial to comprehensively capture the diverse factors influencing atmospheric conditions. Therefore, this study introduces a multimodal learning framework that integrates outdoor images with traditional ground-based observations to improve the accuracy and reliability of air quality predictions. However, aligning and fusing these heterogeneous data sources pose a formidable challenge, further exacerbated by pervasive data incompleteness issues in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel incomplete multimodal learning approach (iMMAir) to recovery missing data for robust air quality prediction. Specifically, we first design a shallow feature extractor to capture modal-specific features within the latent representation space. Then we develop a conditional diffusion-driven recovery module to mitigate the distribution gap between the recovered and true data. This module further incorporates two conditional constraints of temporal correlation and semantic consistency for effective modal completion. Finally, we reconstruct incomplete modalities and fuse available data using a multimodal transformer network to predict the air quality. To alleviate the modality imbalance problem, we employ an adaptive gradient modulation strategy to adjust the optimization of each modality. Experimental results demonstrate that iMMAir significantly reduces prediction errors, outperforming baseline models by an average of 5.6% and 2.5% in air quality regression and classification tasks. Our source code and data are available at https://github.com/pestasu/IMMAir.

Prediction of Power Equipment Emergency Repair Based on Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference Method

If the emergency repair prediction of power equipment is only made from the perspective of historical spare parts inventory data, it cannot reflect the impact of disaster-causing elements and disaster evolution on the demand for emergency repair spare parts in the future. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a reliable power equipment emergency repair prediction method, and constructs a demand prediction method for emergency repair spare parts of power equipment based on scenario analysis. Constructing a power equipment repair system through intelligent reasoning methods to improve the efficiency of power equipment repair. This article comprehensively uses methods such as literature analysis, model inference, and case simulation verification, this paper innovatively combines the adaptive neural network fuzzy inference system with expert experience. This paper validates the superiority of the prediction method constructed in this paper through comparative analysis. The results show that with the increase of the amount of data, the prediction accuracy of the method proposed in this paper will be improved, which can provide a reference for the subsequent emergency repair prediction of power equipment.

Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality in acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Background Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains one of the leading causes of death globally. Accurate and reliable mortality risk prediction of ACS patients is essential for developing targeted treatment strategies and improve prognostication. Traditional models for risk stratification such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores offer moderate discriminative value, and do not incorporate contemporary predictors of ACS prognosis. Machine learning (ML) models have emerged as an alternate method that may offer improved risk assessment. This study aims to compare machine learning models with traditional risk scores for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with ACS. Methods PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane databases were searched until 1st November 2023 for studies comparing ML models with traditional statistical methods for event prediction of ACS patients. The primary outcome was comparative discrimination measured by C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals between ML models and traditional methods in estimating the risk of all-cause mortality. Results Ten studies were included (239627 patients). The summary C-statistic of all ML models across all endpoints was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92), compared to traditional methods 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79-0.85). The difference in C-statistic between all ML models and traditional methods was 0.07 (p<0.05). Three models undertook external validation, and calibration was inconsistently reported. Conclusion ML models demonstrated superior discrimination of all-cause mortality for ACS patients compared to traditional risk scores. Despite outperforming well-established prognostic tools such as the GRACE and TIMI scores, current clinical applications of ML approaches remain uncertain, particularly in view of the methodological limitations of existing models and the need for greater validation.

Elastic properties of Fe95-yNb2Mo2Cu1Siy-xBx (x=5-8, y=20-26) at % amorphous alloys

Amorphous materials exhibit complex atomic structures characterized by the absence of long-range order, in contrast to the well-defined periodicity of crystalline materials. This structural complexity is further pronounced in compositions such as FeMCuSiB (M = Nb, Mo, W and Ta), which incorporate elements with varying atomic radii and valencies. The Young's modulus of structures generated using traditional methods, such as melt-quenching and random packing, shows poor agreement with experimental data. In this study, we employ hybrid methods for generating the structures, which involve randomly packing elements without overlap, followed by thermalization at room temperature using Ab-initio Molecular Dynamics simulations. The Young's modulus evaluated from these structures aligns well with values measured using Dynamic Mechanical Analysis. Additionally, we utilize these structures to determine other elastic moduli including the bulk modulus and tetragonal shear modulus and find that the obtained values are consistent with the expected range for these compounds. We attribute the improved accuracy to a more representative approximation of the amorphous structure and the direct application of energy-strain relationships, rather than stress-strain relationships, for elastic moduli determination. Our methodology facilitates reliable predictions of the physical properties of amorphous materials and contributes to the design of FeMCuSiB (M = Nb, Mo, W and Ta) alloys with enhanced mechanical properties.

Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901–1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980–2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980–2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901–1950, with real data in the 1980–2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.

Single-cell and bulk transcriptomic datasets enable the development of prognostic models based on dynamic changes in the tumor immune microenvironment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and portal vein tumor thrombus

BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients exhibiting portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) face a high risk of rapid malignant progression and poor outcomes, with this issue being compounded by a lack of effective treatment options. The integration of bulk RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) and single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) datasets focused on samples from HCC patients with PVTT has the potential to yield unprecedented insight into the dynamic changes in the tumor microenvironment (TME) and associated immunological characteristics in these patients, providing an invaluable tool for the reliable prediction of disease progression and treatment responses.MethodsscRNA-seq data from both primary tumor (PT) and PVTT cells were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, while the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) databases were used to access bulk RNA-seq datasets. scRNA-seq, clustering, GSVA enrichment, mutational profiling, and predictive immunotherapeutic treatment analyses were conducted using these data with the goal of systematically assessing the heterogeneity of PT and PVTT cells and establishing a model capable of predicting immunotherapeutic and prognostic outcomes in patients with HCC.ResultsThese analyses revealed that PVTT cells exhibited patterns of tumor proliferation, stromal activation, and low levels of immune cell infiltration, presenting with immune desert and immune rejection-like phenotypes. PT cells, in contrast, were found to exhibit a pattern of immunoinflammatory activity. Core PVTT-associated genes were clustered into three patterns consistent with the tumor immune rejection and immune desert phenotypes. An established clustering model was capable of predicting tumor inflammatory stage, subtype, TME stromal activity, and patient outcomes. PVTT signature genes were further used to establish a risk model, with the risk scores derived from this model providing a tool to evaluate patient clinicopathological features including clinical stage, tumor differentiation, histological subtype, microsatellite instability status, and tumor mutational burden. These risk scores were also able to serve as an independent predictor of patient survival outcomes, responses to adjuvant chemotherapy, and responses to immunotherapy. In vitro experiments were used to partially validate the biological prediction results.ConclusionThese results offer new insight into the biological and immunological landscape of PVTT in HCC patients, By utilizing individual patient risk scores, providing an opportunity to guide more effective immunotherapeutic interventional efforts.

High-throughput prediction of oral acute toxicity in Rat and Mouse of over 100,000 polychlorinated persistent organic pollutants (PC-POPs) by interpretable data fusion-driven machine learning global models

This study utilized available oral acute toxicity data in Rat and Mouse for polychlorinated persistent organic pollutants (PC-POPs) to construct data fusion-driven machine learning (ML) global models. Based on atom-centered fragments (ACFs), the collected high-throughput data overcame the applicability limitations, enabling accurate toxicity prediction for a wide range of PC-POPs series compounds using only single models. The data variances in the Rat training and test sets were 1.52 and 1.34, respectively, while for the Mouse, the values were 1.48 and 1.36, respectively. Genetic algorithm (GA) was used to build multiple linear regression (MLR) models and pre-screen descriptors, addressing the “black-box” problem prevalent in ML and enhancing model interpretability. The best ML models for Rat and Mouse achieved approximately 90 % prediction reliability for over 100,000 true untested compounds. Ultimately, a warning list of highly toxic compounds for eight categories of polychlorinated atom-centered fragments (PCACFs) was generated based on the prediction results. The analysis of descriptors revealed that dioxin analogs generally exhibited higher toxicity, because the heteroatoms and ring systems increased structural complexity and formed larger conjugated systems, contributing to greater oral acute toxicity. The present study provides valuable insights for guiding the subsequent in vivo tests, environmental risk assessment and the improvement of global governance system of pollutants.

SLB - SMOTE logistic blending hybrid machine learning model for chronic polycystic ovary syndrome prediction with correlated feature selection

ABSTRACT Objective In this study, we aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) based on demographic, clinical, and biochemical parameters. Methodology We collected data from Kaggle, which included information on age, body mass index, menstrual cycle length, follicle-stimulating hormone, hair growth, and more. Using this data, we trained several traditional ML and ensemble algorithms to predict PCOS. Results Among the traditional ML algorithms, Logistic Regression emerged as the best, boasting the highest accuracy of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.90. In ensemble algorithms, the Blending algorithm outperformed other ensemble methods, also achieving an accuracy of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.90, with a balanced precision and recall of 0.88. Significance of the Research These results establish Logistic Regression and the Blending algorithm as optimal choices for accurate and reliable PCOS prediction, demonstrating strong discriminative power and the ability to correctly classify PCOS cases.

Personal Bankruptcy Prediction Using Logistic Regression Model

According to the Insolvency Department of Malaysia, as of December 2023, 233,483 Malaysians are currently involved in bankruptcy cases due to their defaults on hire purchase loans, credit card loans, personal loans, housing loans, and business loans. This is indeed a critical issue because the growing number of personal bankruptcy cases will hurt the Malaysian economy as well as society. From an individual's economic perspective, bankruptcy minimizes their chances of getting a job. Apart from that, their accounts will be frozen, they will lose control of their properties and assets, and they will not be allowed to start any business or be a part of any company's Board of Directors. Bankrupts also will be rejected from any loan application. This paper examines this problem by developing a personal bankruptcy prediction model using the logistic regression technique. This paper defines "bankrupt" as terminated members who failed to settle their loans. The sample comprised 24,546 cases with 17% settled cases and 83% terminated cases. The data included a dependent variable, i.e., bankruptcy status (Y=1(bankrupt), Y=0(non-bankrupt)), and 12 predictors. Upon completion, this paper succeeds in coming out with a reliable personal bankruptcy prediction model and significant variables of personal bankruptcy. The findings of this paper are very beneficial and significant to creditors, banks, the Malaysia Department of Insolvency, potential borrowers, members of AKPK, and society in general in raising awareness of personal bankruptcy risks and such information may help them to take preventive measures in minimizing the number of personal bankruptcy cases.

A New Algorithm for Predicting Dam Deformation Using Grey Wolf-Optimized Variational Mode Long Short-Term Neural Network

To solve the problems of difficult-to-model parameter selections, useful-signal extraction and improper-signal decomposition in nonlinear, non-stationary dam displacement time series prediction methods, we propose a new predictive model for grey wolf optimization and variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory (GVLSTM). Firstly, we used the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm to optimize the parameters of variable mode decomposition (VMD), obtaining the optimal parameter combination. Secondly, we used multiscale permutation entropy (MPE) as a standard to select signal screening, determining and recon-structing the effective modal components. Finally, the long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) was used to learn the dam deformation characteristics. The result shows that the GVLSTM model can effectively reduce the estimation deviation of the prediction model. Compared with VMDGRU and VMDANN, the average RMSE and MAE value of each station is increased by 19.11%~28.58% and 27.66%~29.63%, respectively. We used determination (R2) coefficient to judge the performance of the prediction model, and the value of R2 was 0.95~0.97, indicating that our method has good performance in predicting dam deformation. The proposed method has outstanding advantages of high accuracy, reliability, and stability for dam deformation prediction.

A Deep Learning Approach for Predicting Aerial Suppressant Drops in Wildland Firefighting Using Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast Data

This study utilizes Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) data sourced by the OpenSky Network to curate a dataset aimed at enhancing the precision of aerial suppressant drop predictions in wildland firefighting. By amalgamating ADS-B data with Automated Telemetry Unit (ATU) drop information, this research constructs a reliable base for analyzing the spatial aspects of aerial firefighting operations. Using sequential machine learning models, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and 1D Convolutional Neural Networks (1DCNN), the study interprets complex flight dynamics to predict drop locations. The dataset, covering 2017 to 2023, is labeled and segmented to reflect accurate suppressant release events, facilitating the distinction between drop and non-drop activities in fixed-wing aircraft. The LSTM model demonstrated strong predictive performance with an F1 score of 0.922, effectively identifying suppressant drop events with high accuracy. This model’s reliable predictions can significantly improve situational awareness in real-time aerial firefighting operations, enabling more informed decision-making and better coordination of resources during wildfire events.

Heart disease prediction using machine learning models

Abstract. Heart disease remains a global health threat, making rapid identification crucial. Using the Heart Disease Dataset from Kaggle, this research employs a Random Forest model to analyze 13 clinical variables from 1,025 samples. To improve accuracy and address class imbalance, the dataset was split into training and test sets, utilizing methods such as Z-scores, SMOTE, and feature selection. The Random Forest model, which combines multiple decision trees, achieved high performance with an accuracy of 98.54%, identifying key predictors such as chest pain type, maximum heart rate, and thalassemia. Compared to a single decision tree, the Random Forest model reduces overfitting, improves generalization, and increases predictive accuracy. Factors like cholesterol levels, resting blood pressure, and exercise-induced angina were also considered. By averaging results from multiple trees, the model offers reliable and stable predictions, highlighting its potential in clinical settings for early detection and personalized treatment strategies. This study aims to assist healthcare providers in better allocating resources, planning preventive measures, and tailoring treatment plans to individual patients.

Construction of a prediction model for induction of labor based on a small sample of clinical indicator data

Because of the diversity and complexity of clinical indicators, it is difficult to establish a comprehensive and reliable prediction model for induction of labor (IOL) outcomes with existing methods. This study aims to analyze the clinical indicators related to IOL and to develop and evaluate a prediction model based on a small-sample of data. The study population consisted of a total of 90 pregnant women who underwent IOL between February 2023 and January 2024 at the Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Healthcare Hospital, and a total of 52 clinical indicators were recorded. Maximal information coefficient (MIC) was used to select features for clinical indicators to reduce the risk of overfitting caused by high-dimensional features. Then, based on the features selected by MIC, the support vector machine (SVM) model based on small samples was compared and analyzed with the fully connected neural network (FCNN) model based on large samples in deep learning, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was given. By calculating the MIC score, the final feature dimension was reduced from 55 to 15, and the area under curve (AUC) of the SVM model was improved from 0.872 before feature selection to 0.923. Model comparison results showed that SVM had better prediction performance than FCNN. This study demonstrates that SVM successfully predicted IOL outcomes, and the MIC feature selection effectively improves the model's generalization ability, making the prediction results more stable. This study provides a reliable method for predicting the outcome of induced labor with potential clinical applications.

A smarter approach to liquefaction risk: harnessing dynamic cone penetration test data and machine learning for safer infrastructure

This paper presents a novel approach for assessing liquefaction potential by integrating Dynamic Cone Penetration Test (DCPT) data with advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. DCPT offers a cost-effective, rapid, and adaptable method for evaluating soil resistance, making it suitable for liquefaction assessment across diverse soil conditions. This study establishes a threshold criterion based on the ratio of the penetration rate to the dynamic resistance (e/qd), where values exceeding four indicate high liquefaction susceptibility. ML models, including Support Vector Machine (SVM) optimized with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Firefly Algorithm (FA), were employed to predict the e/qd ratio using key geotechnical parameters, such as fine content, peak ground acceleration, reduction factor, and penetration rate. The SVM-PSO model demonstrated superior performance, with high R2 values of 0.999 and 0.989 in the training and testing phases, respectively. The proposed methodology offers a sustainable and accurate approach for liquefaction assessment, reducing the environmental impact of geotechnical investigations, while ensuring reliable predictions. This study bridges the gap between field testing and advanced computational techniques, providing a powerful tool for geotechnical engineers to assess liquefaction risks and design resilient infrastructures.

Hypertension Detection Through Speech Analysis Using Machine Learning-Based Approaches with the Identification of BP Sensitive Phonemes and Features

There are certain difficulties and unpleasant issues related to conventional diagnostic tools. These factors tilted the researchers toward finding an alternative non-invasive way of diagnosis. This alternate approach usually involves physiological and lifestyle-related data. The non-invasive tools are more convenient for common people as they are user-friendly and have no side effects. At the same time, they are cost-effective as well. The non-invasive diagnosis is also preferred by the people who live in places where medical facilities are not abundant. This study concentrates on detecting a person as hypertensive by analyzing certain parameters in speech using machine learning approaches. We identify some phonemes and features of speech that are more sensitive to capture the distortions in speech due to hypertension. Four different machine learning methods involving both classical and state-of-the-art methods in our study show the effectiveness of both types of machine learning methods in different dimensions. The study shows inspiring results in terms of prediction accuracy ([Formula: see text]95%) as well as identifying a minimal set of hypertension-sensitive features. It is also found that when we combine the predictions of both classical and state-of-the-art methods, the result gives more reliable predictions.

STIA-DJANet: Spatial–Temporal Intention-Aware vessel trajectory prediction based on Dual-Joint Attention Network for e-navigation

Harnessing high-precision vessel trajectory prediction holds great promise for enhancing autonomous and safe navigation towards e-navigation. However, many technical researchers and maritime managers realize that only accurate prediction of vessel trajectory is insufficient, extraction and recognition of navigation intentions from vessel around is still crucial issue and gap in current prediction models. In response to solve this shortcoming, we propose an intention-aware model for vessel trajectory prediction, which leverages both of spatial–temporal intentions and dual joint attentions network, namely STIA-DJANet. First, the double intentions of spatial–temporal aware is designed to extract the social relationships between the own vessel trajectory and neighboring trajectories at each timestamp, effectively capturing dynamic changes in their interactions. Second, feature fusion of dual joint attentions for double intentions is proposed to extract navigation features from the intention-aware module, which can be integrated into trajectory prediction. In experiments, numerical results and comparisons on three real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art models in terms of the average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE) metrics. The average improvements were 42.852% and 44.726%, respectively. Reliable prediction results can significantly advance the development of e-navigation systems development.

Advanced machine learning for predicting groundwater decline and drought in the Rabat–Salé–Kénitra region, Morocco

ABSTRACT The Rabat–Salé–Kénitra region of Morocco faces critical groundwater challenges due to increasing demands from population growth, agricultural expansion, and the impacts of prolonged droughts and climate change. This study employs advanced machine learning models, including artificial neural networks (ANN), gradient boosting (GB), support vector regression (SVR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to predict groundwater storage variations. The dataset encompasses hydrological, meteorological, and geological factors. Among the models evaluated, RF demonstrated superior performance, achieving a mean squared error (MSE) of 484.800, a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.018, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.986, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.981. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant insights into how different models respond to variations in key environmental factors such as evapotranspiration and precipitation. Prophet was also integrated for its ability to handle seasonality in time-series data, further enhancing prediction reliability. The findings emphasize the urgent need to integrate advanced predictive models into groundwater management to address groundwater depletion and ensure sustainable water resources amid rising drought conditions. Policymakers can use these models to regulate extraction, promote water-saving technologies, and enhance recharge efforts, ensuring the sustainability of vital groundwater resources for future generations.

Life cycle cost analysis in investment projects – examination of case studies and risk mitigation with Monte Carlo simulation

This work focuses on life cycle cost (LCC) analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure and recommends strategies to mitigate the uncertainties and risks involved using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It deals with the impact of input data and predicting the future development of input data on the results of the LCC analysis and discusses MCS for risk mitigation. Seven case studies for investments in Germany’s natural gas infrastructure are analyzed. In addition to the executed case studies, a case study from a scientific journal is included. The case studies were conducted between 2005 and 2015. Evaluation with real historical input data shows that the results of an LCC analysis depend on the reliability of input data and predictions on their development. The retrospective view shows that the best options are not always identified. Therefore, the results need to be validated using risk-mitigation methods, such as MCS. The executed case studies reflect the opinions of experts. This work shows how risk is mitigated through MCS while focusing on LCC analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure; however, the proposed risk mitigation with MCS can be adopted for other investment projects comprising capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX), for example, in construction, machines and other fields.

A Probability-Based Model for Course Completion Prediction in Online Asynchronous Learning

The sheer scale of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), presents a significant challenge in delivering personalized learning experiences and effective student support. With vast participation numbers, it becomes difficult for instructors to track individual progress, pinpoint specific areas where students struggle, and understand the underlying reasons for failure to complete the course. This lack of individualized attention can lead to disengagement and higher dropout rates. A probability-based analysis offers a solution by generating student-specific predictions about their likelihood of completion. This empowers educators to proactively identify those at risk, tailor interventions, optimize resource allocation, and potentially improve the overall learning experience within the MOOC environment. This study focuses on developing a robust predictive framework to accurately estimate the probability of students completing an introductory programming course offered on the Open Learning Platform of the University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka. The approach began with a classification model to determine the likelihood of course completion. Building upon this, a regression model was developed to generate a specific probability percentage representing the chance of a student successfully completing the course within a designated time frame. Initial findings suggested that predictions from the classification model achieved the highest accuracy when students have completed approximately 42.8% of the course materials. It is anticipated that further refinements to the methodology will improve the reliability of the predictions. A crucial aspect of this research involves determining the optimal percentage of course progress needed to yield reliable probability predictions. This is investigated through systematic analysis and experimentations including incremental model testing. The dataset encompasses diverse demographic and educational variables, enabling the identification of influential factors affecting course completion. This study provides insights on developing personalized learning strategies, intervention tactics and academic planning within online asynchronous education.