Reliability Of Electric Networks Research Articles

Calculation of electrical energy losses in distribution networks for power supply using oil and vacuum circuit breakers

A method for approximate estimation of load losses in distribution networks from 6 to 10 kV, as well as for lower voltage networks, has been proposed. The main advantage of this method is that the root mean square current is calculated only once for a series of calculations. This approach significantly reduces the time required for calculations and improves their accuracy, as it eliminates the need for multiple determinations of the root mean square current for each individual calculation. The proposed approach contributes to a better understanding of the influence of various factors on load losses, which allows for more effective planning and management of distribution networks. This is particularly important in the context of increasing loads on electrical networks and higher demands for their reliability and efficiency. In the calculation of electrical energy losses in distribution networks from 6 to 10 kV, methods that use generalized coefficients of electrical circuits and operating modes in the form of regression equations are widely applied. The most significant and independent factors, such as the input of active energy, total line length, number of line sections, total number of transformers, and their total installed capacity, must be taken into account and are included in the calculation equation. Additionally, the components used and their regular maintenance play an important role in electrical energy losses in electrical networks. The main direction of research is the optimization of distribution network parameters, taking into account the latest technologies and materials, as well as the implementation of automated monitoring and control systems that will allow timely detection and elimination of problems associated with electrical energy losses. The proposed method for estimating load losses in distribution networks is a promising direction for the development of the energy sector, which will contribute to improving the efficiency and reliability of electrical networks, as well as reducing the costs of their operation and maintenance.

Methods for calculating the moisture discharge characteristics of insulators

This paper presents a detailed analysis and comparison of methods for calculating the moisture discharge voltage of insulators. The initial section provides a brief overview of the principles underlying air discharge along the surface of insulators, which is crucial for understanding moisture discharge processes. Two primary calculation methods for moisture discharge voltage are considered. The first method is based on Tepler's formula, which requires specific input data that can only be obtained experimentally. Although this approach is classical, it complicates practical application due to the difficulty of acquiring the necessary parameters under real-world conditions. The second method, described in the literature, relies on readily available data, significantly simplifying the calculation process. Based on this method, an automated tool for calculating the moisture discharge characteristics of insulators has been developed. The use of this tool reduces dependency on experimental data, providing accurate results with minimal time and resource expenditure. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed tool, a moisture discharge characteristic calculation was performed for the insulator type LK 70-110. According to the analysis results, the moisture discharge voltage for this insulator is 549 kV, with a stress of 2.1 kV per centimeter of leakage current path length. These figures align with the average values obtained using the first method, confirming the reliability and accuracy of the new approach. The conclusions indicate that the second calculation method is fully satisfactory for standard insulator calculations. It can also be applied in specific conditions, such as under-chemo-substations, where precision and efficiency are critically important. Thus, the proposed calculation method can become an effective tool for engineers and researchers involved in the design and analysis of insulation systems. This work significantly contributes to the development and improvement of methods for assessing the moisture discharge characteristics of insulators, representing an essential step towards enhancing the reliability and safety of electrical networks and their operation.

A Review on the Recent Advances in Battery Development and Energy Storage Technologies

Energy storage is a more sustainable choice to meet net-zero carbon foot print and decarbonization of the environment in the pursuit of an energy independent future, green energy transition, and uptake. The journey to reduced greenhouse gas emissions, increased grid stability and reliability, and improved green energy access and security are the result of innovation in energy storage systems. Renewable energy sources are fundamentally intermittent, which means they rely on the availability of natural resources like the sun and wind rather than continuously producing energy. Due to its ability to address the inherent intermittency of renewable energy sources, manage peak demand, enhance grid stability and reliability, and make it possible to integrate small-scale renewable energy systems into the grid, energy storage is essential for the continued development of renewable energy sources and the decentralization of energy generation. Accordingly, the development of an effective energy storage system has been prompted by the demand for unlimited supply of energy, primarily through harnessing of solar, chemical, and mechanical energy. Nonetheless, in order to achieve green energy transition and mitigate climate risks resulting from the use of fossil-based fuels, robust energy storage systems are necessary. Herein, the need for better, more effective energy storage devices such as batteries, supercapacitors, and bio-batteries is critically reviewed. Due to their low maintenance needs, supercapacitors are the devices of choice for energy storage in renewable energy producing facilities, most notably in harnessing wind energy. Moreover, supercapacitors possess robust charging and discharging cycles, high power density, low maintenance requirements, extended lifespan, and are environmentally friendly. On the other hand, combining aluminum with nonaqueous charge storage materials such as conductive polymers to make use of each material’s unique capabilities could be crucial for continued development of robust storage batteries. In general, energy density is a key component in battery development, and scientists are constantly developing new methods and technologies to make existing batteries more energy proficient and safe. This will make it possible to design energy storage devices that are more powerful and lighter for a range of applications. When there is an imbalance between supply and demand, energy storage systems (ESS) offer a way of increasing the effectiveness of electrical systems. They also play a central role in enhancing the reliability and excellence of electrical networks that can also be deployed in off-grid localities.

Construction of a recurrent neural network-based electrical load forecasting model for a 110 kV substation: a case study in the Western Region of The Republic of Kazakhstan

Construction of a recurrent neural network-based electrical load forecasting model for a 110 kV substation: a case study in the Western Region of The Republic of Kazakhstan

Impact of Fault Resistance on Distance Relaying of Ahoada-Yenagoa Transmission Line Using Neplan

Relay protection schemes play a vital part in guaranteeing reliability and integrity of electrical power networks by promptly detecting and isolating faults in the transmission network. Fault resistance encountered during a fault event, is a crucial parameter that significantly influences the effectiveness of relay protection systems. This paper investigates the performance of a distance relying system under different fault resistance using NEPLAN software environment on a 46-km Ahoada to Yenagoa transmission line. The performance of the distance protection relaying system under single line to ground (SLG) at 80% of the transmission line with fault resistances of 0.65Ω and 2.9Ω was modeled and analyzed using NEPLAN. From our investigation, the result reveal that when a fault resistance of 0.65 Ω and 2.9 Ω was introduced in the system during a SLG at 80% of the line (zone 1), the apparent impedance seen by the relay increased from 5.475 Ω without fault resistance to 5.602Ω and 6.407 Ω respectively. The results show that for a fault resistance of 0.65 Ω, the apparent impedances (ZAPP) trajectory falls inside the impedance characteristic of zone 2 instead of zone 1 while a fault resistance of 2.9 Ω fall outside zone 2. The findings highlight the significance of fault resistance in transmission line relaying for distance protection.

Hypertuned-YOLO for interpretable distribution power grid fault location based on EigenCAM

Ensuring the reliability of electrical distribution networks is a pressing concern, especially given the power outages due to surface contamination on insulating components. Surface contamination can elevate surface conductivity, thereby resulting in failures that can lead to power shutdowns. Addressing this challenge, this paper proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of electrical distribution grids to prevent such incidents. A hypertuned version of the you only look once (YOLO) model is tailored for this application. We refine the model's hyperparameters by integrating a genetic algorithm to maximize its detection performance. The EigenCAM technique enhances the visual interpretability of the model's outcomes, providing operators with actionable insights for maintenance and monitoring tasks. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed Hypertuned-YOLO outperforms Detectron (Masked R-CNN), YOLOv5, and YOLOv7 models. The Hypertuned-YOLO achieves an F1-score of 0.867 and a mAP@0.5 of 0.922, validating its robustness and efficacy.

ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ПОДВІЙНИХ ЗАМКНЕНЬ НА ЗЕМЛЮ В МЕРЕЖАХ 10 КВ З ІЗОЛЬОВАНОЮ НЕЙТРАЛЛЮ

Reliability indicators of power supply systems as a whole are largely determined by the level of reliability of distribution electrical networks with a voltage of 6-35 kV. Emergency in networks with a voltage of 6-35 kV, operating in the mode with an isolated neutral, is often associated with internal overvoltages. Single-phase short-circuits occur in places of defects in the insulation of cable lines and substation equipment due to the aging of the insulation, non-compliance with the manufacturing technology of insulating structures at factories, non-compliance with the requirements of the instructions during the installation and operation of the equipment, as well as due to mechanical damage, which, sometimes at the time of their appearance, lead to only a partial decrease in electrical strength. Overloads lead to defects. Single-phase short-circuits in 10 kV networks that are not eliminated in time can lead to double earth faults. For protection in these networks, such protections as current cut-off, maximum current protection, current cut-off, zero-sequence current protection, current protections with blocking at minimum voltage are used. However, there are cases when there are cases of negative operation of such protections at a 10 kV substation during double earth faults. For example, a phase A short circuit occurred on the first line, which receives power from the buses of the investigated substation, and another short circuit (phase B) occurred on the second line. Instead of tripping the two damaged lines, the input circuit breaker tripped by mistake. This de-energized other (undamaged) lines that are fed from the same bus section as the damaged lines. Under such conditions, further studies of the currents in the lines during double circuits are required. For this, the use of the Matlab application program package is justified. This will significantly reduce the costs of physical modeling and verification of proposed proposals. The paper presents the results of studies of double earth faults in 10 kV networks with an isolated neutral in the "MATLAB" program package.

The impact of variation in water flow rate and temperature on reliability analysis of run of the river power plants

AbstractA run‐of‐the‐river power plant is a renewable energy source used for electricity production. Its power output depends on the varying water flow rate over time, which can impact the reliability of the electric network. Previous research has not studied the effects of water flow rate and temperature variations on the hazard rate of the plant's components. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the impact of these variations on the reliability of electric networks with run‐of‐the‐river power plants. The analysis considers the hazard rates of the plant's components, incorporating the relationship between hazard rate and temperature based on the Arrhenius law. Parameters such as power output, current, power loss, operating temperature, and hazard rate are calculated for different water flow rates and ambient temperatures. Numerical simulations on a test system are conducted to examine the influence of water flow rate and temperature on the reliability indices of the electric network. The results demonstrate that water flow rate and temperature significantly affect the hazard rates of run‐of‐the‐river power plants. This highlights the need to consider these factors in the reliability analysis of electric networks incorporating these renewable resources.

Isolating switch state detection system based on depth information guidance

<abstract> <p>This study addressed the critical role of isolating switches in controlling circuit connections for the stable operation of the substation. Our research introduced an innovative state detection system that utilized depth information guidance, comprising a controllable pan-tilt mechanism, a depth camera, and an industrial computer. The software component employed a two-stage strategy for precise isolating switch detection. Initially, the red green blue with depth (RGB-D) saliency network identified the approximate area of the isolating switch target. Subsequently, a fully connected conditional random field was applied to extract accurate detection results. The real-time state of the isolating switch was determined based on the geometric relationship between its arms. This approach enhanced the accuracy of isolating switch detection, ensuring practical applicability in engineering scenarios. The significance of this research lies in its contribution to advancing isolating switch monitoring through depth information guidance, promoting a more robust and reliable power system. The key improvement is implementing a two-stage strategy, combining RGB-D saliency analysis and conditional random field processing, resulting in enhanced accuracy in isolating switch detection. As validated through extensive experiments, the proposed system's successful application in practical engineering underscores its effectiveness in meeting the accuracy requirements for isolating switch detection and state detection. This innovation holds promise for broader applications in power systems, showcasing its potential to elevate the reliability and efficiency of electrical networks. Code of the proposed system is available at: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="https://github.com/miaomiao0909/Isolating-Switch-Detection/tree/master">https://github.com/miaomiao0909/Isolating-Switch-Detection/tree/master</ext-link>.</p> </abstract>

Kajian Manajerial Efektifitas Pemeliharaan Jaringan dan Transformator Distribusi 20 kV Menggunakan Uji ANOVA

PT PLN (Persero) is an electricity company in Indonesia which supports the development and industrial sectors. Process Business PLN starts from power plant, Transmission and distribution until Retail to Customers. For Supply the needed for customer in electricity power, PLN keep the reliability electricity network for fulfil it. The reliability of electric power distribution network depends on several factors, including the quality of materials, maintenance, operating patterns, protective equipment used and also network configuration. One of the ways to maintain electricity service is to carry out distribution transformer maintenance. After the maintenance is carried out, it is necessary to evaluate the distribution transformer maintenance activities that have been carried out, whether the maintenance activities have an impact or not on management, this is measured by the quality of the voltage and the rupiah per kWh that can be distributed and is denominated in rupiah. The purpose of this study is to find out whether the network and transformer maintenance has had an impact or not. One way that can be done statistically is through the ANOVA test. From the result, Minitab results obtained a value of 0.321 > α = 0.05 and the results of the autocorrelation do not show plots that are outside the lines or margins. This means that the maintenance activities of the 20 kV distribution transformers in data collection unit affect the company’s income. This means that maintenance activities affect the company's income. Therefore, the maintenance factor affects the company's income. Thus, it can be the main focus for improving distribution reliability by doing transformer 20 kV maintenance.

Evaluating the Economic Potential for Geological Hydrogen Storage in Australia

Australia has ambitions to become a major global hydrogen producer by 2030. The establishment of Australia’s and the world’s hydrogen economy, however, will depend upon the availability of affordable and reliable hydrogen storage. Geological hydrogen storage is a practical solution for large scale storage requirements ensuring hydrogen supply can always meet demand, and excess renewable electricity can be stored for later use, improving electricity network reliability. Hosting thick, underground halite (salt) deposits and an abundance of onshore depleted gas fields, Australia is well placed to take advantage of geological hydrogen storage options to support its ambition of building a global hydrogen hub export industry. Using the Bluecap modelling software, we identify regions in Australia that are potentially profitable for large scale hydrogen production and storage. We use the results of this work to suggest high-potential regions for hydrogen development, supporting policymaker and investor decisions on the locations of new infrastructure and hydrogen projects in Australia.

Sizing of community centralized battery energy storage system and aggregated residential solar PV system as virtual power plant to support electrical distribution network reliability improvement

Virtual Power Plants (VPP) have been seen as one of the techniques to integrate more decentralized and distributed variable renewable energy systems into the grid. They will thus facilitate the greater democratization of the energy systems. VPP is an aggregation of renewable energy technologies, such as solar PV. It is usually operated with battery energy storage system (BESS) facilities to solve the variability issue of solar PV. However, BESS used as part of VPP has to be appropriately sized to work in the electrical network. While VPP operated with BESS may provide significant technical and financial advantage, most of the BESS sized to be used as VPP in the literature are large scale, operated with large scale VRE’s in the grid. Some of the literatures also provide the use of BESS sizing with Solar PV but for shared residential community use only. The context of BESS sizing for VPP from a residential community is not prevalent in the literature. In this paper, the context of a sizing BESS for VPP from a residential neighbourhood is studied. It is aimed that by optimally sizing BESS for a residential community with rooftop solar PV can supply power to the community and any excess energy may be used for VPP application for the grid. This paper provides a practical process for evaluating the proper size of a centralized BESS in a community with rooftop Solar PV by considering the energy consumption and peak demand profiles of the residential units in three types of communities with rooftop Solar PV, namely low-cost, medium-cost, and high-end community, by considering the mean and maximum energy consumption and peak demand profiles of each residential unit. Such values are used to allocate for the Solar PV system per residential unit and the centralized BESS at mean, 75% of maximum, maximum, and 125% of maximum energy consumption, to be used for the community and for any excess energy to support the electrical networks reliability improvement. The result shows that using the maximum and 125% of maximum energy consumption can provide more than enough energy capacity for VPP application, particularly electrical networks reliability improvement by supplying for the Energy not Supplied (EnS), EN. The result provides that for a High-end community, the stored energy in the BESS can reach up to 24.578 MW h using 125% of maximum sizing at either mean or maximum energy consumption. While for Medium-cost and Low-cost communities, the stored energy can reach up to 17.549 MW h and 14.527 MW h using 125% of maximum sizing at either mean or maximum energy consumption, respectively. Moreover, the result also shows that to alleviate Energy not Supplied (EnS) and contribute to reliability improvement, more residential units are needed if sizing is based on maximum energy consumption, while a lesser number of residential units if the size is based on 125% of the maximum energy consumption.

Reliability Study of Electrical Distribution Network in Kampala East

This research focuses on the reliability study of the electrical distribution network in Kampala East, which is connected to Lugogo, Nakawa, Kireka and Ntinda substations. The network is unable to supply its customers with reliable power at all times. Methods used in this research involve data identification, collection, cleaning, analyzing and interpretation. Also conducted are determination of reliability indices, identification of causes of supply interruptions and improvement of reliability. Depending on the reliability study outcome, the electrical distribution network in Kampala East has customer hours lost (System Average Interruption Duration Index) of 8.34 per month per customer, number of outages per month per customer (System Average Interruption Frequency Index) is 5.65 hours, Energy not served to customers of 2.14 GWh per month and Faults resolution time (Customer Average Interruption Duration Index) of 1.58 hours. The major cause of interruptions are system faults and emergency shutdowns. In this study, Reconfiguring network through use of appropriate combinations of opening of sectionalizing (normally Closed) switches and closing of tie-line (normally- Open) switches on feeders, the reliability is improved to 4.18 customers hours lost per month per customer and the number of outages per month per customer is 5.35, the energy not served of 0.18 GWh and faults resolution time of 0.84 Hours. This gives percentage improvements of 49.88%, 5.31%, 54.2%, and 88.61% in SAIDI, SAIFI, ENS and CAIDI respectively. The current level of reliability of electrical distribution network in Kampala East exceeds the target set by the regulator for 2022.

An Innovative Cloud-Fog-Based Smart Grid Scheme for Efficient Resource Utilization.

Smart grids (SGs) enhance the effectiveness, reliability, resilience, and energy-efficient operation of electrical networks. Nonetheless, SGs suffer from big data transactions which limit their capabilities and can cause delays in the optimal operation and management tasks. Therefore, it is clear that a fast and reliable architecture is needed to make big data management in SGs more efficient. This paper assesses the optimal operation of the SGs using cloud computing (CC), fog computing, and resource allocation to enhance the management problem. Technically, big data management makes SG more efficient if cloud and fog computing (CFC) are integrated. The integration of fog computing (FC) with CC minimizes cloud burden and maximizes resource allocation. There are three key features for the proposed fog layer: awareness of position, short latency, and mobility. Moreover, a CFC-driven framework is proposed to manage data among different agents. In order to make the system more efficient, FC allocates virtual machines (VMs) according to load-balancing techniques. In addition, the present study proposes a hybrid gray wolf differential evolution optimization algorithm (HGWDE) that brings gray wolf optimization (GWO) and improved differential evolution (IDE) together. Simulation results conducted in MATLAB verify the efficiency of the suggested algorithm according to the high data transaction and computational time. According to the results, the response time of HGWDE is 54 ms, 82.1 ms, and 81.6 ms faster than particle swarm optimization (PSO), differential evolution (DE), and GWO. HGWDE's processing time is 53 ms, 81.2 ms, and 80.6 ms faster than PSO, DE, and GWO. Although GWO is a bit more efficient than HGWDE, the difference is not very significant.

Economic interval analysis of loads for selection of cross-section surfaces of electrical transmission lines

In this article, the implementation of comprehensive measures for the use of modern approaches to the selection of the main parameters of the system in the development of the electric power industry of our Republic, including the development of methods for optimizing, updating and increasing the reliability of electric transmission networks, as well as the selection of the most optimal cross-sectional surface of the conductors of power transmission lines written about the problem and the widespread use of the method of economic intervals to solve this problem. In addition, the action strategy for the further development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021 defines the tasks of “… to reduce the energy and resource capacities of the economy, to widely introduce energy-saving technologies into production, which are implemented in accordance with the target parameters of reducing energy consumption in economic sectors,…” and these tasks. It has been reflected that determining the optimal parameters of electrical networks, carrying out theoretical and scientific work on increasing their reliability, and receiving appropriate recommendations for the design, construction, modernization and operation of rural electrical networks are considered to be one of the most important issues for implementation.

Distribution network topology planning and optimization: A brief review

This article investigates distribution network topologies, with an emphasis on Mesh, Radial, and Ring designs, within the context of smart grids. With the primary goal of decreasing power losses using optimization techniques. The ZIP model is used to precisely capture load behaviour in load flow. This research adds to our understanding of topology selection, optimization approaches, and load behaviour modelling, improving in this way increases the efficiency and reliability of electrical distribution networks.

Increasing the functional reliability of industrial electrical networks 6-10 kV by integrating vacuum reclosers

Topical matter of power supply for today is effective increase in the reliability of power supply in medium voltage overhead power systems by sectioning of lines with switching devices, such as disconnectors, controlled disconnectors or sectioning points. In such schemes, the manual approach to emergency management is used. This kind of schemes can be used where the overhead power lines are. Protective device on the outgoing feeder is switched off as soon as damage occurs in any area. As a result, all consumers of the line lose power for a long time. Remotely operated disconnectors or remote controlled sectioning points can also be installed instead of manual line disconnectors. This process of damage localization differs only in that all switching operations are performed remotely. Decision on switching is made by the dispatcher, constant communication with each controlled element of the network is necessary, otherwise it becomes virtually uncontrollable and the entire effect of remote control of disconnectors is eliminated.

РОЗРОБКА ІНФОРМАЦІЙНИХ ЗАСОБІВ ТА АЛГОРИТМІВ КОРИГУВАННЯ МОДЕЛІ ЕЛЕКТРОПОСТАЧАННЯ ПРОМИСЛОВИХ ТА ЦИВІЛЬНИХ ОБ’ЄКТІВ

The purpose of the work is the development of algorithms and information tools to increase the reliability of istribution electric networks and improve the quality of electricity supply of industrial and civil objects due to decentralized Electricity generation. Today, for the energy security of Ukraine, the energy sector is moving from a purely centralized model of electricity supply to consumers, the basis of which are powerful TPPs and nuclear power plants, to a combined one, when part of the electricity is produced by decentralized generation in RES sources of electricity. By distributed generation (RG) we understand sources of electric energy connected directly to the distribution network or connected to such a network from the side of electricity consumers. The wide spread of distributed generation is primarily associated with the appearance of highly efficient gas turbine and steam-gas plants and the development of renewable sources of electricity. Among them, wind power plants (SPP) and direct conversion solar power plants (SPP) have become the most widespread. The introduction of RG in electrical networks, especially built on the basis of renewable energy sources (RES), in addition to reducing the ecological burden on the environment and solving many problems associated with waste emissions during the production of electricity, will allow, firstly, to significantly increase the efficiency of the use of primary resources and , in the future, to reduce the cost of electricity; secondly, it will unload both the system-forming and trunk and distribution electric networks. However, this process has both positive and negative consequences for the functioning of RES. The integration of RES into the electric power system is complicated by the fact that the existing RES were designed and operated with a focus on centralized power supply. The growth of the share of RES in the total balance of electricity generates new problems and tasks that are not typical for the past period. They are connected, first of all, with the instability of RES generation due to their natural dependence on the influence of the environment.

Optimal Operational Reliability and Reconfiguration of Electrical Distribution Network Based on Jellyfish Search Algorithm

In this paper, the electricity network automation based on Power Network Reconfiguration (PNR) is implemented to improve the operational reliability of distribution systems using jellyfish search algorithm. For this purpose, system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), system average interruption unavailability index (SAIUI) and total energy not supplied (TENS) are critical measures. In this paper, a new optimization technique of jellyfish search (JFS) algorithm is employed for distribution network reconfiguration for reliability improvement. It is concerned with the moving patterns of jellyfish. They are divided into three categories. The jellyfish could flow towards the ocean current or between its own swarm. Meanwhile, whenever the food supply is adequate, the jellyfishes are attracted to its location. It is formulated considering the three reliability indices of SAIFI, SAIUI and TENS, simultaneously in a multi-objective model based on the weight factors. The proposed methodology based on the JFS optimizer is implemented on an IEEE 33-node distribution network. According to the numerical results, the SAIFI, SAIUI and TENS is improved by 36.44%, 34.11% and 33.35%, compared to the initial condition. For comparison purposes, tuna swarm optimizer and tunicate swarm algorithm, besides the JFS algorithm, are implemented as well. The simulation results declare the significant outperformance of the JFS algorithm compared to TUNA and TSA in terms of the obtained improvements and the regarding convergence properties.

Development of a comprehensive system for assessing the reliability of thermal power equipment

The article reveals the necessity of monitoring the reliability of the electric power system as a complex technical system. Based on the consideration of the main regulatory documents, governing the assessment of the reliability of thermal power equipment and electrical networks, the article indicates the imperfections of the available methods of reliability assessment. A proposed comprehensive reliability assessment system allows a detailed assessment of the reliability of a complex system. The reliability of the power unit of the thermal power plant (TPP) was estimated by the logical-probabilistic method using the domestic software package. The existing problems of forecasting reliability indicators at various technical impacts are considered to obtain reliable calculation results.