Reliability Analysis Of Systems Research Articles

A Curved Surface Integral Method for Reliability Analysis of Multiple Failure Modes System with Non-Overlapping Failure Domains

Abstract In the study of reliability of systems with multiple failure modes, approximations can be obtained by calculating the probability of failure for each state function. The first-order reliability method and the second-order reliability method are effective, but they may introduce significant errors when dealing with certain nonlinear situations. Simulation methods such as line sampling method and response surface method can solve implicit function problems, but the large amount of calculation results in low efficiency. The curved surface integral method (CSI) has good accuracy in dealing with nonlinear problems. Therefore, a system reliability analysis method (CSIMMS) is proposed on the basis of CSI for solving multiple failure modes system reliability problems with non-overlapping failure domains. The order of magnitude of the failure probability is evaluated based on the reliability index and the degree of nonlinearity, ignoring the influence of low order of magnitude failure modes, and reducing the calculation of the system failure probability. Finally, CSIMMS and other methods are compared by three numerical examples, and the results show the stability and accuracy of the proposed method.

System reliability analysis of geogrid reinforced retaining wall using random finite element method

Stabilizing earthwalls is extremely important in geotechnical engineering projects and has become an integral part of transportation infrastructures. Meanwhile, geogrid reinforced retaining walls have been the attention of designers due to their advantages. On the other hand, the soil heterogeneity and the requirement of investigating the internal (geogrid rupture and geogrid pullout) and external (global and lateral displacement) stability modes of these structures have necessitated performing system reliability analysis. In this study, finite element in conjunction with random fields is used to evaluate the reliability of these walls. For this purpose, a finite element program is coded in MATLAB to obtain internal and external safety factors considering staged construction. The deterministic program is extended to a stochastic framework to account for spatial variability of soil parameters in retained backfill, foundation soil, and reinforced fill. In the last part of this study, reliability indices of stability modes are calculated to obtain the series system reliability index, utilizing the Sequential Compounding Method (SCM). The results indicated that the effect of soil heterogeneity is more significant on internal stability modes compared to external stability modes especially geogrid pullout. The results of the system reliability analysis demonstrated more critical conditions thus the reliability index of the system was less than the reliability index of individual components.

Reliability analysis of multiple repairable systems under imperfect repair and unobserved heterogeneity

Reliability analysis of multiple repairable systems under imperfect repair and unobserved heterogeneity

The Reliability and Availability Analysis of a Single-Unit System under the Influence of Random Shocks and the Variation in Demand from Production with Erlang Distribution

This study evaluates the reliability measures for a system consisting of a single unit that is subject to random shocks at random times with mismatches between demand and production. The system may sometimes be subject to random shocks leading to a system failure with probability p. The system may also fail completely for various reasons other than shocks. The unit is serviced by a technician if it is affected by a shock. However, the system may fail during operation for various other reasons, such as a programming error, human error, operational continuity and stress, and weather conditions. A single technician immediately repairs or maintains the failed unit. The system is in an operational state when there is demand or in an idle state when there is no demand. The distributions of all times in this system follow a negative exponential, while the time to repair follows a two-stage Erlang distribution. The expressions for the reliability metrics are obtained as functions of time using the Laplace transform and the supplementary variables technique. Sensitivity and relative sensitivity analyses were also performed for the system parameters. Finally, the efficiency of the system is illustrated using numerical examples.

Statistical reliability analysis of marine systems with varied levels of redundancy

In designing autonomous vessels for long-duration independent operation, maintaining the performance of machinery systems without human intervention is a key challenge. Designers are faced with a range of potential system architecture choices but have little guidance on which will be optimal. Working only with high-reliability components can increase the probability of completing a voyage successfully, though the availability of such components may be limited. Alternatively, designers can select a redundant architecture to provide options for reconfiguration if a component fails during a voyage, such architectures typically have weight, space, and cost implications. This work presents a parametric exploration of the probability of system failures over time under different architectures. The reliability of individual components is expressed through exponential probability distributions and the weight of each component is approximated. Two systems are presented and the effectiveness of various architectures for both systems is compared. A simple design penalty function is also tracked to capture the different architectures’ weight and implication number of components. From this study optimal architectures for long-term autonomous missions are proposed.

Cost optimization and reliability analysis of fault tolerant system with service interruption and reboot

Due to widespread usage in many real time systems, reliability modeling and cost optimization of fault tolerance system have drawn attention of the practitioners. The fault tolerance in these systems can be provided by the support of maintenance and redundant components that help in smooth operation of the system in spite of failure of some active components. This investigation deals with the performance modeling of a fault-tolerant system consisting of a finite number of active (online) and standby components. During the switching from active to standby, the recovery procedure is performed, which may be imperfect. In case of imperfect recovery, the system reboot takes place. The maintenance of all the components is managed by a repairman (server) which is subject to failure. When the server is interrupted for rendering the service, functioning does not get stopped due to the system switch-over from perfect working to working breakdown mode. The system works even when the server is on working vacation and performs repair jobs of the failed components. The machine repair model based on Markovian process is developed to derive the transient probabilities and other performance indices of the fault tolerant system using Laplace transforms and matrix analytical method. Using the direct search strategy and particle swarm optimization, the cost-benefit analysis is done. The optimal design of the control parameters for the fault-tolerant system are presented by framing a cost-effective ratio function. The model is examined computationally by performing the numerical simulation and cost optimization.

A reliability analysis method for fuzzy multi-state system with common cause failure based on improved the weakest T-norm

Recently, the reliability analysis of complex engineering systems has been confronted with a range of challenges, including fuzziness, multiple states, and common cause failures. In particular, factors such as changes in the working environment and human error contribute to the fuzzy probability value for each state in the system, which brings great challenges to its reliability analysis. In this paper, a new reliability analysis method for fuzzy multi-state system with common cause failure is proposed, which developed the fault tree analysis method and fuzzy set theory. First, a model integrating common cause failure with fuzzy T-S fault tree analysis model has been illustrated, and the equivalent model is given. Meanwhile, a novel fuzzy arithmetic method based on the weakest n-dimension T-norm is designed to solve the proposed model. Finally, the aircraft power system is analyzed as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The result shows that the proposed method effectively enhances the capacity of failure tree analysis in assessing the reliability of complex systems characterized by multiple states, fuzziness, and common cause failures.

Composite reliability analysis of electric power systems considering climatic and spatial conditions using self-organizing map

This article presents an innovative approach by integrating different models that represent the failure rates of components related to weather events, considering the geographic location and its variation over time, to a customized Monte Carlo simulation model to ensure the draw synchronized with the load and generation curves, and then quantify the impact of these events through the power flow. The study focuses on using a neural network is trained to classify/filter system states in order to reduce the need for electrical studies and speed up the reliability assessment process. The approach is demonstrated with reference to the IEEE-RTS network test case. The results obtained indicate that the inclusion of renewable sources and climatic conditions have a significant impact on reliability indicators, as failure rates subject to these meteorological conditions tend to increase, providing a greater risk of simultaneous shutdowns, and contributing to the worsening of the system severity index. Therefore, the proposed model allows for a faster and more realistic reliability assessment, directing the planning of expansions and reinforcements and allowing risk monitoring during system operation.

System reliability analysis of Cable-stayed bridge using pair Copula and ICLHS with unequal weights under seismic loading

Considering the correlation between different components, quantifying the failure probability of a high-level hyper-static structure under non-stationary seismic loading is of great significance in guiding earthquake-resistant design and fortification of bridges. In this study, a high-pier and large-span railway cable-stayed bridge in the mountainous region were employed to evaluate the seismic performance. First, the basic theoretical methods of the non-stationary random seismic motion simulation, equivalent extreme value theory based on extreme value distribution (EVD), improved Latin hypercube sampling (ICLHS) with unequal weighted fractional moment estimation and Pair Copula technique are presented. Second, the finite element analysis model of the cable-stayed bridge was established based on the OpenSees platform, the seismic response samples of the bridge were calculated under three levels of seismic ground motion to determine the first passage failure probability of the main components of the bridge under the design failure modes. Finally, the Pair Copula function was introduced to estimate the seismic system reliability of the cable-stayed bridge. The optimal Copula type that can describe the correlation between the bridge components was selected through goodness-of-fit tests such as AIC, BIC, and the minimum distance method. The failure probability of the entire system was obtained by calculating the selected Copula function type under seismic loading.

Editor's Note for article entitled “Reliability analysis of battery energy storage system for various stationary applications”

Editor's Note for article entitled “Reliability analysis of battery energy storage system for various stationary applications”

Response and reliability analysis of a nonlinear VEH systems with FOPID controller by improved stochastic averaging method and LBFNN algorithm

In engineering, it is an important issue to guarantee the normal working of a vibration energy harvesting (VEH) device to harvest electricity. However, the determination of the system dynamics is a huge challenge due to random excitation, nonlinear structure, and control force. This paper aims to study the response and reliability of a kind of nonlinear and coupled VEH system with an FOPID controller. The stationary response is analyzed by an improved stochastic averaging method, in which an amplitude-dependent frequency is taken into account during the averaging procedure in the case of the strongly nonlinear system. Time-varying reliability in the VEH system is analyzed by using a new LBFNN algorithm, and weight coefficients at each time in this algorithm is obtained through an iteration procedure. Numerical results show that there are essential differences between the weakly nonlinear system and the strongly nonlinear one in terms of averaging procedure and response probability. The fractional orders in the FOPID controller are critical parameters to bring stochastic bifurcations. In addition, strongly nonlinear structure together with lower-order fractional derivative and higher-order fractional integration in FOPID controller are helpful to enhance the reliability performance of the VEH system.

System reliability modeling and analysis for a marine power equipment operating in a discrete‐time dynamic environment

AbstractExploring on reliability modeling and analysis on a marine equipment in a dynamic environment is a meaningful and challenging issue, because the system commonly carries out the task at sea away from land and suffers a distinct influence of environment. Thus, a reliability model of a multi‐state repairable system operating in dynamic environment is developed by introducing the background of the marine power system in this paper. The novelty of the research lies in the modeling and computing methods are relatively innovative by employing the aggregated stochastic processes, Hadamard production and matrix‐analytic method. First, the working modes of the marine power system under several different kinds of conditions are introduced. Then, the evolution of both the system states and environment are described as discrete‐time Markov chains with multiple and different transition probability matrices. The failure probability and repair probability of components are also distinct in different environments. Furthermore, some performance indexes, especially the index relevant to the environment, are derived, respectively. Finally, the conclusion is obtained by a numerical example of the marine power system, which also illustrates the validity and applicability of the proposed model.

Simulating non-stationary and non-Gaussian cross-correlated fields using multivariate Karhunen–Loève expansion and L-moments-based Hermite polynomial model

In practical engineering, cross-correlated random fields are often used to model structural materials or random loads containing multiple correlations. Effective and accurate simulation of these cross-correlation fields is an important prerequisite for subsequent reliability analysis and uncertainty quantification of complex systems. Therefore, this paper proposes a new simulation method for non-stationary non-Gaussian cross-correlated random fields to satisfy realistic engineering requirements. In this new method, L-moments-based Hermite polynomials model (LHPM) is extended to non-stationary non-Gaussian cross-correlated fields. Then, a transformation model from non-stationary non-Gaussian correlation matrix function (CMF) to the underlying Gaussian CMF is explicitly given. Multivariate K-L expansion is further used to approximate the underlying Gaussian cross-correlated fields, where the eigenvalue and eigenfunctions are estimated via the Nyström method with uniform weights. The approximation permits the application of few random variables to characterize the entire Gaussian cross-correlated fields. Ultimately, the simulated underlying Gaussian cross-correlated fields are mapped back to the target non-stationary non-Gaussian cross-correlated fields based on LHPM. Three typical examples, including exponential kernel, Wiener process kernel and spatially varying non-Gaussian and nonstationary seismic ground motions, are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The source code is readily available at: https://github.com/zhaozhao23/Simulation-of-non-stationary-and-non-Gaussian-cross-correlated-fields.

Artificial Intelligence for safety and reliability: A descriptive, bibliometric and interpretative review on machine learning

This research provides a structured review of studies that utilize Artificial Intelligence for safety and reliability. In particular, it focuses on Machine Learning techniques to perform fault detection and diagnosis, anomaly detection, system prognosis, reliability analysis, and risk assessment of engineering-related systems across the industry. Relevant studies were identified through clear research questions, screened, and assessed for eligibility. Explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined to verify the suitability of the records. The analysis encompasses a descriptive, bibliometric, and interpretative review. The descriptive analysis details how different ML approaches are adapted and implemented across various domains of safety and reliability. The bibliometric analysis provides in-depth and comprehensive statistics, covering aspects such as data types used, preprocessing steps undertaken, and categories of ML algorithms employed. The interpretative analysis offers a critical and forward-looking perspective on the current state of the field. A total of 308 papers were analyzed, mostly adopting supervised learning frameworks (81%) and addressing fault detection and diagnosis (57%) in more than 16 different industrial fields. The outcome of this study reflects the rapid development of this cross-cutting and interdisciplinary research field and highlights the potential for future improvement in the data-driven operational safety of industrial plants. Challenges and limitations have been highlighted and discussed, including data availability and label scarcity, data quality, trust and explainability, and interdisciplinary collaboration. Additionally, suggestions on potential solutions to overcome existing limitations and outline future directions are provided.

Reliability analysis of diesel engine cooling system based on improved Bayesian network

For the benefit of solving the problem of absoluteness of conditional probability distribution and difficulty in obtaining basic event probability in Bayesian networks, this paper studies the reliability of diesel engine cooling systems through leakage noise or gate intuitionistic fuzzy Bayesian network. Firstly, the leakage noise or gate is introduced into the intuitionistic fuzzy Bayesian network, which makes the results more realistic. Secondly, prior probability in the Bayesian network is obtained based on the similarity aggregation method of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. The results show that the introduction of leakage noise or gate, intuitionistic fuzzy set, and Bayesian network can solve the problem that the probability of basic events in a Bayesian network is difficult to obtain. The conditional probability table corrected by leakage noise or gate is more realistic and greatly reduces the workload. It is determined that the two weakest components of the cooling system are the thermostat and the water pump. The results show that the way in this paper can provide support for the reliability analysis of the complex system.

Reliability analysis of arbitrary systems based on active learning and global sensitivity analysis

System reliability analysis aims at computing the probability of failure of an engineering system given a set of uncertain inputs and limit state functions. Active-learning solution schemes have been shown to be a viable tool but as of yet they are not as efficient as in the context of component reliability analysis. This is due to some peculiarities of system problems, such as the presence of multiple failure modes and their uneven contribution to failure, or the dependence on the system configuration (e.g., series or parallel). In this work, we propose a novel active learning strategy designed for solving general system reliability problems. This algorithm combines subset simulation and Kriging/PC-Kriging, and relies on an enrichment scheme tailored to specifically address the weaknesses of this class of methods. More specifically, it relies on three components: (i) a new learning function that does not require the specification of the system configuration, (ii) a density-based clustering technique that allows one to automatically detect the different failure modes, and (iii) sensitivity analysis to estimate the contribution of each limit state to system failure so as to select only the most relevant ones for enrichment. The proposed method is validated on two analytical examples and compared against results gathered in the literature. Finally, a complex engineering problem related to power transmission is solved, thereby showcasing the efficiency of the proposed method in a real-case scenario.

A Bayesian network development methodology for fault analysis; case study of the automotive aftertreatment system

This paper proposes a structured methodology for generating a Bayesian network (BN) structure for an engineered system and investigates the impact of integrating engineering analysis with a data-driven methodology for fault analysis. The approach differs from the state of the art by using different initial information to build the BN structure. This method identifies the cause-and-effect relationships in a system by Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and based on that, builds the Bayesian Network structure for the system. One of the challenges in identifying the root cause for a fault is to determine the way in which the related variable causes the fault. To deal with this challenge, the proposed methodology exploits Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis (DFTA), CLD and the correlation between variables. To demonstrate and evaluate the effectiveness of the presented method, it is implemented on the data-driven methodology applied to the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) system and the obtained results have been compared and discussed. The proposed methodology offers a comprehensive approach to build a BN structure for an engineered system, which can enhance the system's reliability analysis.

An efficient analysis method for system reliability of semi-rigid base asphalt pavement structure based on direct probability integral method

The structural design parameters of asphalt pavement inherently possess randomness. Reliability theory aids in considering the stochastic nature of these parameters in asphalt pavement design. However, as the number of considered random factors increases, the complexity of reliability calculation models and the consumption of computational resources also significantly escalate. To analyze the structural reliability of semi-rigid base asphalt pavements more efficiently and accurately, a method combining Weighted Kernel Density Estimation (Weighted-KDE) with Direct Probability Integration Method (DPIM) using sampling strategies was employed. Furthermore, integrating the equivalent extreme value principle, an asphalt pavement structural system reliability analysis method was proposed, considering multiple failure mode correlations. The numerical solution steps of this method are also outlined. Based on the typical semi-rigid asphalt pavement structure in China, this study utilized the elastic layer system method (the program Apbi) and a computational program developed in MATLAB to compare the efficiency and accuracy of calculating reliability between DPIM and the Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The computational outcomes indicate that, under the premise of selecting 18 random parameters, DPIM can achieve the required accuracy in assessing the reliability of asphalt pavement structure and system reliability. Analyzing how the number of samples affects the computational results reveals that using weighted-KDE and DPIM only needs a few hundred sample points to limit the relative error within 4 %, compared to the results obtained from 105 samples in MCS. The research findings demonstrate that DPIM incorporating the principle of equivalent extreme value events can serve as an efficient analytical approach for assessing the system reliability of asphalt pavement structures characterized by more complex failure modes.

Reliability analysis of complex systems using subset simulations with Hamiltonian Neural Networks

We present a new Subset Simulation approach using Hamiltonian neural network-based Monte Carlo sampling for reliability analysis. The proposed strategy combines the superior sampling of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method with computationally efficient gradient evaluations using Hamiltonian neural networks. This combination is especially advantageous because the neural network architecture conserves the Hamiltonian, which defines the acceptance criteria of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. Hence, this strategy achieves high acceptance rates at low computational cost. Our approach estimates small failure probabilities using Subset Simulations. However, in low-probability sample regions, the gradient evaluation is particularly challenging. The remarkable accuracy of the proposed strategy is demonstrated on different reliability problems, and its efficiency is compared to the traditional Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. We note that this approach can reach its limitations for gradient estimations in low-probability regions of complex and high-dimensional distributions. Thus, we propose techniques to improve gradient prediction in these particular situations and enable accurate estimations of the probability of failure. The highlight of this study is the reliability analysis of a system whose parameter distributions must be inferred with Bayesian inference problems. In such a case, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method requires a full model evaluation for each gradient evaluation and, therefore, comes at a very high cost. However, using Hamiltonian neural networks in this framework replaces the expensive model evaluation, resulting in tremendous improvements in computational efficiency.

Causal chain event graphs for remedial maintenance.

The analysis of system reliability has often benefited from graphical tools such as fault trees and Bayesian networks. In this article, instead of conventional graphical tools, we apply a probabilistic graphical model called the chain event graph (CEG) to represent the failures and processes of deterioration of a system. The CEG is derived from an event tree and can flexibly represent the unfolding of asymmetric processes. For this application, we need to define a new class of formal intervention we call remedial to model the causal effects of remedial maintenance. This fixes the root causes of a failure and returns the status of the system to as good as new. We demonstrate that the semantics of the CEG are rich enough to express this novel type of intervention. Furthermore, through the bespoke causal algebras, the CEG provides a transparent framework with which to guide and express the rationale behind predictive inferences about the effects of various types of remedial intervention. A backdoor theorem is adapted to apply to these interventions to help discover when a system is only partiallyobserved.