On April 15, 2013 at approximately 2:50 p.m. as runners completed their journey through the Boston Marathon, two explosions occurred, ten to fifteen seconds apart and 550 feet away from each other, killing three and injuring over 170 innocent Americans. As volunteers, runners, bystanders and emergency personnel risked their lives to aid the injured, no one knew if other explosions were imminent. The improvised explosive devices (“IEDs”) were made of pressure cookers containing nails, ball bearings, and other shrapnel, combined with an electronic detonator. The bombs were designed not to kill, but to severely maim innocent bystanders as they watched the race. As the forensics investigation continued, many leads have been generated, and many have been discounted, with disturbing results. State officials reported there were no intelligence assessments revealing credible threats in Boston prior to the attack. On April 18, 2013, the FBI released images of two suspects who were later identified as brothers Tamerlan and Dzhohkar Tsarnev, 26 and 19, respectively. On April 19, 2013, prior to engaging in a firefight and hurling explosive devices against police, resulting in the injury of a Transit police officer, the pair killed a Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus police officer. Tamerlan Tsarnev was shot and killed during the firefight with police and his younger brother was barricaded, and eventually turned himself in after being wounded and barricading himself in a boat in Watertown, Massachusetts. As the terror investigation continues it has been revealed that the brothers were born and raised in Russia and may have had ties to Chechnya where Muslim radicalism has been rampant. According to public photos on the internet documenting the older brother’s training for the Golden Gloves Boxing Competition, the pair fled to Kazakhstan in the 1990s to escape the violence in Chechnya before making their way to the United States as refugees. The photo captions also quote Tamerlan as saying, “I don’t have a single American friend. I don’t understand them.” The pair have been in the United States since 2002 and the younger brother was a second-year medical student in the Boston area. Although it is yet unclear the motivations behind the attack, it has been revealed that the older brother had posted on YouTube, video’s discussing an Islamic prophecy frequently associated with al Qaeda. Additionally, the Russian government allegedly revealed to the FBI concerns that Tamerlan Dzhokar was involved in extremist activities. This led the FBI interviewing Tamerlan, performing a background check, running his name through relevant databases and checking on his communications and overseas travel. However, the FBI missed the threat – there was no chatter, no intelligence revealing the Tamerlan’s intentions.The solution to this incident may, in the future, reside in the use of predictive analytics, which relies on capturing relationships between explanatory and predicted variables from past occurrences and exploiting them to predict future outcomes. An algorithm would data mine through massive amounts of open source data, linking information about a potential suspect from multiple different sources and provide law enforcement with targets to further investigate. Therefore, using a predictive analytical algorithm, combined with open source information, and information from traditional intelligence and law enforcement mechanisms, may allow the security apparatus to predict future outcomes. However, despite the national security implications, such a program would require access to massive amounts of data that would need to be stored. It would also complicate the privacy and legal regime that the law has in currently in place. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the use, legal implications, and challenges of utilizing predictive analytics as a tool to enhance intelligence and law enforcement communities with their efforts to combat homegrown extremism. This paper will not, as other papers on the subject of homegrown extremism, focus solely on the threat of extremism propagated by “Jihadi-Salafi” ideology. Rather, this paper will note that extremism results from ideology, not religion, and therefore a broadening definition of extremism is necessary. In this context, this paper will discuss the use of predictive analytics as a tool in identifying, predicting, analyzing, and possibly preventing homegrown extremism propagated from religious, environmental, right wing, left wing, and other persons, located in the United States.
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