Relative Risk Range Research Articles

The association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality: An umbrella review of systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume drinkers as a reference group.

Systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality have reported different relative risk (RR) curves, possibly due to the choice of reference group. Results have varied from 'J-shaped' curves, where low-volume consumption is associated with reduced risk, to monotonically increased risk with increasing consumption. We summarised the evidence on alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality exclusively from systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers as the reference group. We conducted a systematic umbrella review of systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in prospective cohort studies using a reference group of lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers. Several databases (PubMed/Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/Cochrane Library) were searched to March 2022. Reviews were assessed for risk of bias, and those with reference groups containing former drinkers were excluded. From 2149 articles retrieved, 25 systematic reviews were identified, and five did not include former drinkers in the reference group. Four of the five included reviews had high risk of bias. Three reviews reported a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality with significant decreased risk for low-volume drinking (RR range 0.84 to 0.95), while two reviews did not. The one review at low risk of bias reported monotonically increased risk with greater consumption (RRs = 1.02, 1.13, 1.33 and 1.52 for low-, medium-, high- and higher-volume drinking, respectively, compared with occasional drinking). All five reviews reported significantly increased risk with higher levels of alcohol consumption (RR range 1.28 to 3.70). Sub-group analyses were reported by sex and age; however, there were evidence gaps for many important factors. Conversely, 17 of 20 excluded systematic reviews reported decreased mortality risk for low-volume drinking. Over 70% of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published to March 2022 of all-cause mortality risk associated with alcohol consumption did not exclude former drinkers from the reference group and may therefore be biased by the 'sick-quitter effect'.

Narrative synthesis of the effectiveness and characteristics of heart failure disease self-management support programmes.

A deeper understanding of the key elements that should be included in heart failure (HF) disease self-management support (DSMS) programmes is crucial to enhance programme effectiveness and applicability to diverse settings. We investigated the characteristics and effectiveness of DSMS programmes designed to improve survival and decrease acute care readmissions for people with HF and determine the generalizability and applicability of the evidence to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A narrative meta-synthesis approach was used, and systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of DSMS programmes were included. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, MEDLINE, and Embase were searched without language restriction and guided by the adapted Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Eight high-quality systematic reviews were identified representing 250 studies, of which 138 were unique RCTs measuring the outcomes of interest. The findings revealed statistically significant reductions in HF readmissions [relative risk (RR) range 0.64-0.85, P<0.5, five out of six reviews], all-cause readmissions (RR range 0.85-0.95, P<0.5, five out of six reviews), and all-cause mortality (RR range 0.67-0.87, P<0.5, five out of five reviews). Overall, 44.2% (n=61) of RCTs reduced acute care readmission and improved survival. Studies were categorized according to intensity (low, moderate, moderate+, and high) based on the opportunity for immediate treatment of HF instability; 29.2% (14/48) of low-intensity, 63.6% (21/33) of moderate-intensity, 40% (6/15) of moderate+-intensity, and 47.6% (20/42) of high-intensity interventions were effective. Most effective programmes used moderate-intensity (39.4%, 48%, or 50%, respectively) or high-intensity (33.3%, 36%, and 43.7%, respectively) interventions. The majority of studies (90.6%) were conducted in high-income countries. Programmes that provided opportunities for early recognition and response to HF instability were more likely to reduce acute care readmission and enhance survival. Generalizability and applicability to LMICs are clearly limited. Tailoring HF DSMS programmes to accommodate cultural, resource, and environmental challenges requires careful consideration of intervention intensity, duration of follow-up, and feasibility in low-resource settings.

Macrotraumatic Fractures of the Multisegmented Ankle-Foot Complex in Military Tactical Athletes: A Cohort Study.

Ankle-foot injuries are common in military personnel and substantially degrade function and force readiness. The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to assess the incidence and contributing factors of traumatic ankle-foot fractures in the US military. A population-based study of all service members in the US military was performed assessing the factors of sex, occupation, service branch, rank, and year on segmental tibia-fibula, rearfoot, and forefoot fracture incidence between 2006 and 2015. The Defense Medical Epidemiology Database was queried for the number of individuals with fractures of the tibia-fibula, rearfoot, and forefoot using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification on the initial medical encounter. Unadjusted relative risk (RR) calculations were performed assessing sex and occupation. A negative binomial regression assessed the adjusted factors of sex, branch, rank, and year. During this study, 95,540 enlisted service members (8.4 per 1,000 person-years) and 13,318 military officers (5.8 per 1,000 person-years) were diagnosed with ankle-foot fractures. In the adjusted analysis, sex was found to only be a significant factor in forefoot fractures (RR, 1.54), with female service members having a significantly higher risk. There were no significant sex-related differences observed in tibia-fibula or rearfoot fractures. US Navy and Air Force personnel had significantly lower risk of tibia-fibula fractures (RR range, 0.76-0.84) compared with the US Army. Forefoot fracture risk was significantly higher in the US Marine Corps (RR, 1.47) compared with the US Army. Officers had consistently lower risk for fractures in each segment (RR range, 0.68-0.77) compared with enlisted personnel. Enlisted engineers, aviation, and artillery/gunnery compared to infantry, and ground/naval gunfire officers had the greatest relative risk compared all other officer fields (RR range, 1.11-3.67). Sex, occupation, branch, and rank were salient factors for macrotraumatic ankle-foot fractures. These findings can be used to inform and increase precision in medical planning and in the targeted development of preventive interventions.

Comparative Speed of Early Symptomatic Remission With Advanced Therapies for Moderate-to-Severe Ulcerative Colitis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

Rapidity of symptom resolution informs treatment choice in patients with moderate-severe ulcerative colitis (UC). We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis comparing early symptomatic remission with approved therapies. Through a systematic literature review to December 31, 2022, we identified randomized trials in adult outpatients with moderate-severe UC treated with approved therapies (tumor necrosis factor α antagonists, vedolizumab, ustekinumab, janus kinase inhibitors, or ozanimod), compared with each other or placebo, reporting rates of symptomatic remission (based on partial Mayo score, with resolution of rectal bleeding and near-normalization of stool frequency) at weeks 2, 4, and/or 6. We performed random-effects network meta-analysis using a frequentist approach and estimated relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval values. On network meta-analysis, upadacitinib was more effective than all agents in achieving symptomatic remission at weeks 2 (range of RR, 2.85-6.27), 4 (range of RR, 1.78-2.37), and 6 (range of RR, 1.84-2.79). Tumor necrosis factor α antagonists and filgotinib, but not ustekinumab and vedolizumab, were more effective than ozanimod in achieving symptomatic remission at week 2, but not at weeks 4 and 6. With approximately 10% placebo-treated patients achieving symptomatic remission at 2 weeks, we estimated 68%, 22%, 23.7%, 23.9%, 22.2%, 18.4%, 15.7%, and 10.9% of upadacitinib-, filgotinib-, infliximab-, adalimumab-, golimumab-, ustekinumab-, vedolizumab-, and ozanimod-treated patients would achieve early symptomatic remission, ustekinumab and vedolizumab achieving rapid remission only in biologic-naïve patients. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis, upadacitinib was most effective in achieving early symptomatic remission, whereas ozanimod was relatively slower acting.

Mental Health Services Utilization among Suicidal Patients: Comparing the Impact of Co-Occurring Opioid or Other Substance Use Disorders

IntroductionPrior literature establishes bidirectional associations between suicide and substance use disorders (SUDs), particularly opioid use disorder (OUD). However, the context of mental health services utilization remains under-investigated. This analysis examined patterns of mental health services utilization in patients with SUDs and suicidality, identified associated risk factors, and evaluated the impact of patient engagement on subsequent mental health outcomesObjectivesSee above.MethodsElectronic health records (EHRs) derived from 7 health systems across New York City between 2010-2019 were analyzed. Suicidality was identified as any ICD-9/10 diagnosis of suicide attempt, suicidal ideation, or self-harm injury. SUDs were identified as any opioid, cannabis, cocaine, hallucinogen, inhalant, sedative/hypnotic/anxiolytic, amphetamine, or other substance abuse or dependence. Quasi-Poisson regression adjusted for age, gender, and chronic diseases was used to model associations between OUD exposure and the frequency of encounters and estimate the relative risk (RR) of significant covariates.ResultsA total of 6977 adults with suicidality and any comorbid SUD were selected, including 2203 (31.6%) with a diagnosis of OUD and 4774 (68.4%) without a diagnosis of OUD. Most patients were male (54.8%) and aged between 25-64 years (79.3%). Many (61.3%) had over 3 chronic diseases, including depression (80.8%), hypertension (60.6%), anemia (43.0%), and hyperlipidemia (41.9%). Compared to patients with other SUDs, those with OUD had higher odds of self-harm injury [OR: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.13-1.41)], depressive disorders [1.47 (1.29-1.67)], anxiety disorders [1.65 (1.48-1.84)], psychotic disorders [1.23 (1.11-1.37)], personality disorders [1.30 (1.16-1.48)], and post-traumatic stress disorder [1.37 (1.20-1.57)]. Patients with OUD were more likely to utilize all-cause outpatient (RR: 1.16), emergency department (ED) (RR: 1.43), and inpatient (RR: 1.60) services (p&lt;0.001). Among OUD patients, males were less likely to have outpatient visits (RR: 0.79) and inpatient hospitalizations (RR: 0.88), and older age was protective against ED admissions (RR range: 0.62-0.71). Additionally, individuals with OUD were more likely than those with other SUDs to have SUD-related encounters, as well as suicide-related ED admissions and inpatient hospitalizations (p&lt;0.0001). Those who had more mental health outpatient visits were less likely to have suicide-related ED admissions (RR: 0.85), however this association was weaker among younger or male patients with comorbid OUD.ConclusionsAmong suicidal adults with comorbid SUDs, those with a diagnosis of OUD were more likely to utilize mental health services and have psychiatric comorbidity. Males and older adults were less likely to utilize services.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Medicare Advantage Patterns of Poststroke Discharge to an Inpatient Rehabilitation or Skilled Nursing Facility: A Consideration of Demographic, Functional, and Payer Factors.

The purpose of this study was to determine the factors influencing the discharge to an inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) or a skilled nursing facility (SNF) of people poststroke with Medicare Advantage plans. A retrospective cohort study was conducted with data from naviHealth, a company that manages postacute care discharge placement on behalf of Medicare Advantage organizations. The dependent variable was discharge destination (IRF or SNF). Variables included age, sex, prior living setting, functional status (Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care [AM-PAC]), acute hospital length of stay, comorbidities, and payers (health plans). Analysis estimated relative risk (RR) of discharge to SNF, while controlling for regional variation. Individuals discharged to an SNF were older (RR = 1.17), women (RR = 1.05), lived at home alone or in assisted living (RR = 1.13 and 1.39, respectively), had comorbidities impacting their function "some" or "severely" (RR = 1.43 and 1.81, respectively), and had a length of stay greater than 5days (RR = 1.16). Individuals with better AM-PAC Basic Mobility (RR = 0.95) went to an IRF, and individuals with better Daily Activity (RR = 1.01) scores went to an SNF. There was a substantial, significant variation in discharge of individuals to SNF by payer group (RR range = 1.12-1.92). The results of this study show that individuals poststroke are more likely to be discharged to an SNF than to an IRF. This study did not find a different discharge decision-making picture for those with Medicare Advantage plans than previously described for other insurance programs. Medicare Advantage payers have varied patterns in discharge placement to an IRF or SNF for patients poststroke.

Lasmiditan abortive therapy for episodic migraine in Phase II/III randomized clinical trials: A meta-analysis.

Although migraine is common, there are very few treatment options. Recently, lasmiditan, a specific 5-HT1F agonist, has gained approval as abortive therapy for migraine. This meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA) was performed to analyze efficacy and tolerability of lasmiditan therapy for episodic migraine. Phase II and Phase III double-blinded placebo-controlled randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating lasmiditan for episodic migraine were searched for from electronic databases. The risk of bias was estimated, data were extracted, and relative risk (RR) were calculated for efficacy and safety outcomes with a fixed/random effect model. Forest plots and funnel plots were created. TSA graph was plotted. Therapeutic gain with lasmiditan was calculated. Six high-quality RCTs were included with 7122 patients. Compared to placebo, lasmiditan demonstrated a significant proportion of migraineurs reporting freedom from headache, most bothersome symptom, headache response, no disability, global impression "very much/much better" 2 h posttreatment and sustained pain freedom at 24 and 48 h with 50, 100, 200, and 400 mg doses (RR range = 1.26-2.50). 39.3% of patients in the lasmiditan group (RR = 2.43) reported one or more treatment-emergent adverse event (TEAE). Dizziness, somnolence, paresthesia, fatigue, nausea, vertigo, hypoesthesia, asthenia, muscular weakness, lethargy, and malaise had a high incidence (RR range = 3.16-12.77). Most TEAEs were mild to moderate. No vasoconstriction-related TEAE was reported. Lasmiditan demonstrated efficacy as abortive therapy for episodic migraine with central nervous system-related side effects.

Efficacy, immunogenicity and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BackgroundOlder adults are more susceptible to severe health outcomes for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Universal vaccination has become a trend, but there are still doubts and research gaps regarding the COVID-19 vaccination in the elderly. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in older people aged ≥ 55 years and their influencing factors.MethodsRandomized controlled trials from inception to April 9, 2022, were systematically searched in PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. We estimated summary relative risk (RR), rates, or standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI) using random-effects meta-analysis. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022314456).ResultsOf the 32 eligible studies, 9, 21, and 25 were analyzed for efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety, respectively. In older adults, vaccination was efficacious against COVID-19 (79.49%, 95% CI: 60.55−89.34), with excellent seroconversion rate (92.64%, 95% CI: 86.77−96.91) and geometric mean titer (GMT) (SMD 3.56, 95% CI: 2.80−4.31) of neutralizing antibodies, and provided a significant protection rate against severe disease (87.01%, 50.80−96.57). Subgroup and meta-regression analyses consistently found vaccine types and the number of doses to be primary influencing factors for efficacy and immunogenicity. Specifically, mRNA vaccines showed the best efficacy (90.72%, 95% CI: 86.82−93.46), consistent with its highest seroconversion rate (98.52%, 95% CI: 93.45−99.98) and GMT (SMD 6.20, 95% CI: 2.02−10.39). Compared to the control groups, vaccination significantly increased the incidence of total adverse events (AEs) (RR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.38−1.83), including most local and systemic AEs, such as pain, fever, chill, etc. For inactivated and DNA vaccines, the incidence of any AEs was similar between vaccination and control groups (p > 0.1), while mRNA vaccines had the highest risk of most AEs (RR range from 1.74 to 7.22).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines showed acceptable efficacy, immunogenicity and safety in older people, especially providing a high protection rate against severe disease. The mRNA vaccine was the most efficacious, but it is worth surveillance for some AEs it caused. Increased booster coverage in older adults is warranted, and additional studies are urgently required for longer follow-up periods and variant strains.

Geographical risk pattern and temporal trends in incidence of HPV-related cancers in northern Thailand: A population-based study.

The burden of HPV-related cancers in different regions worldwide varies according to several factors. This study aims to measure inequality in the risk of incidence of HPV-related cancers in term of geographical risk patterns in northern Thailand using a population-based cancer registry data. Trends in age-standardized HPV-related cancer incidence were calculated for the 2008-2017 time period. The Besag-York-Molli´e model was used to explore the spatial distribution of the relative risk (RR) of HPV-related cancers at the district level. A higher RR reflects a larger disparity. The geographical risk pattern of the diseases in two periods, 2008-2012 and 2013-2017 were described and compared. From 2008 to 2017, the incidence of oropharyngeal and anal cancers showed a slightly increased trend in males but remained stable in females, the incidence of vulvar, vaginal and penile cancers were stable while the incidence of cervical cancer decreased. The RR range was closer to 1 in the second period compared to the first period. This suggests a decrease in the disparities of incidence of cervical cancer. However, in some areas near the Thai-Myanmar border, the RR values remained high. The incidence rate of most HPV-related cancers remained low and stable over the study period in northern Thailand. For the most common HPV-related malignancy, cervical cancer, the incidence rate steadily decreased but with marked geographic disparities, possibly reflecting health inequity especially in the border areas.

Neurodevelopmental Disorders and Risk of Concussion: Findings from the National Collegiate Athletic Association Department of Defense Grand Alliance Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education (NCAA-DOD CARE) Consortium (2014-2017).

Evidence suggests neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs) may be associated with an increased incidence of concussion, but no studies have cross-sectionally and longitudinally assessed the associations of NDs and sex with concussion in collegiate athletes. We sought to assess the odds and relative risk (RR) of concussion in athletes self-reporting a diagnosis of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), learning disability (LD), and ADHD+LD. Data from the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium (2014-2017) were used to evaluate the likelihood of concussion for male and female athletes with ADHD, LD, and ADHD+LD, relative to controls. Odds ratios (ORs) of concussion history prior to enrollment and relative risk ratios for incurring a concussion following enrollment, with and without concussion history were calculated for all groups. Athletes with self-reported diagnosis of ADHD, LD, and ADHD+LD were more likely to report a single concussion (OR range = 1.528 to 1.828) and multiple concussions (OR range = 1.849 to 2.365) prior to enrollment in the CARE Consortium, irrespective of sex compared with control athletes. While enrolled in CARE, male athletes with ADHD, LD, and ADHD+LD had greater risk of incurring a concussion (RR range = 1.369 to 2.243) than controls, irrespective of concussion history. Male athletes with ADHD+LD with concussion history (RR = 2.221) and without concussion history (RR = 1.835) had greater risk of incurring a concussion than controls. These results suggest NDs may be associated with increased odds of single and multiple concussions, irrespective of sex. However, when we accounted for concussion history, it appears only male athletes with ADHD+LD had greater risk than respective controls. There were no significant differences between females and males with ADHD, LD, or ADHD+LD for either odds of concussion history or risk for incurring concussion.

Prescribed footwear and orthoses are not prophylactic in preventing lower extremity injuries in military tactical athletes: a systematic review with meta-analysis

IntroductionMilitary members are exposed to high cumulative physical loads that frequently lead to injury. Prescribed footwear and orthoses have been used to prevent injury. The purpose of this systematic review...

Simulation study on the validity of the average risk approach in estimating population attributable fractions for continuous exposures

BackgroundThe population attributable fraction (PAF) is an important metric for estimating disease burden associated with causal risk factors. In an International Agency for Research on Cancer working group report, an...

Extreme weather conditions and dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China: Spatial heterogeneity based on climate variability

BackgroundPrevious studies have shown associations between local weather factors and dengue incidence in tropical and subtropical regions. However, spatial variability in those associations remains unclear and evidence is scarce regarding the effects of weather extremes. ObjectivesWe examined spatial variability in the effects of various weather conditions on the unprecedented dengue outbreak in Guangdong province of China in 2014 and explored how city characteristics modify weather-related risk. MethodsA Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to examine the overall and city-specific associations of dengue incidence with weather conditions including (1) average temperature, temperature variation, and average rainfall; and (2) weather extremes including numbers of days of extremely high temperature and high rainfall (both used 95th percentile as the cut-off). This model was run for cumulative dengue cases during five months from July to November (accounting for 99.8% of all dengue cases). A further analysis based on spatial variability was used to validate the modification effects by economic, demographic and environmental factors. ResultsWe found a positive association of dengue incidence with average temperature in seven cities (relative risk (RR) range: 1.032 to 1.153), a positive association with average rainfall in seven cities (RR range: 1.237 to 1.974), and a negative association with temperature variation in four cities (RR range: 0.315 to 0.593). There was an overall positive association of dengue incidence with extremely high temperature (RR:1.054, 95% credible interval (CI): 1.016 to 1.094), without evidence of variation across cities, and an overall positive association of dengue with extremely high rainfall (RR:1.505, 95% CI: 1.096 to 2.080), with seven regions having stronger associations (RR range: 1.237 to 1.418). Greater effects of weather conditions appeared to occur in cities with higher economic level, lower green space coverage and lower elevation. ConclusionsSpatially varied effects of weather conditions on dengue outbreaks necessitate area-specific dengue prevention and control measures. Extremes of temperature and rainfall have strong and positive associations with dengue outbreaks.

Risk Factors for Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementia Diagnoses in American Indians

The burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) has increased substantially in the United States, particularly in health disparity populations. Little is known about the epidemiology of ADRD in American Indian (AI) adults, although they have a high prevalence of ADRD risk factors including hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and smoking. Using electronic health records from a large health care organization during 2016-18, we describe characteristics of AI patients aged ≥55 years with and without an ADRD diagnosis, assess ADRD risk factors and contrast findings with results from age- and sex-matched non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients. To identify factors associated with ADRD diagnoses, we estimated population-averaged prevalence rate ratios to approximate relative risk (RR) using generalized estimating equations models adjusted for age, sex, and marital and rural residency status. The age-adjusted prevalence of ADRD diagnosis was 6.6% of AI patients, compared with 4.4% in NHW patients. Patient age and diagnosis of hypertension, depression, hyperlipidemia, or diabetes were significantly associated with higher risk of ADRD diagnosis in AIs (RR range: 1.1-2.8) whereas female sex or being married/having a partner were associated with lower risk of ADRD diagnosis (each RR=.7). ADRD risk factors were generally similar between AI and NHW patients, except for sex and marital status. However, the adjusted risk of ADRD was approximately 49% higher in AI patients. To our knowledge, our study is the first to examine ADRD diagnoses and comorbidities in AIs across a large geographical region in southwest United States. Future efforts to confirm our findings in diverse AI communities are warranted.

Cotton dust exposure and risk of lung cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

Findings on the association between cotton dust exposure and lung cancer risk in epidemiologic studies have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of data from observational studies to quantify this association.PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane library databases were searched for observational studies with data on cotton dust exposure and lung cancer risk. Studies that reported adjusted relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of lung cancer associated with cotton dust exposure were included. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to key characteristics.Fifteen studies involving a total of 73,812 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. Combining estimates from all the 15 observational studies, cotton dust exposure was associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer (combined RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66–0.91; P = .002). Pooled estimates of multivariate RRs by gender were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58–0.88; P = .001) among males, based on 7 studies, and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67–0.89; P < .001) among females, based on 9 studies. Further analyses examining the influence of a single study on the results by omitting a study at each turn yielded a range of RR from 0.74 to 0.82.Our meta-analysis indicates that cotton dust exposure is associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer.

Association of weather variability with resurging pertussis infections among different age groups: A non-linear approach

Pertussis has resurged in many countries over recent years, especially among adolescents and adults. This study assessed the effect of weather variability on resurging pertussis among different age groups in Jinan, China. Data on weekly pertussis notifications by age group and weather factors (mean temperature (MeanT), mean temperature standard deviation within a week (MeanT SD), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and relative humidity (RH)) were collected between 2013 and 2017. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) and regression tree models were used to examine the non-linear association between weather variability and pertussis infections. The 2-weeks cumulative relative risk (RR) of pertussis infections was 4.46 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.33–9.51) in 0–4 age group, 6.25 (95% CI: 1.38–22.76) in 5–9 age group and 10.11 (95% CI: 2.83–39.07) in 10+ age group when MeanT was at 30.0 °C. MeanT SD (RR range in the three age groups: 2.82–5.83), DTR (RR range: 6.33–11.56) and RH (RR range: 2.02–7.43) also exert significant influence, with the highest risks at 10+ age group. Regression tree models showed the interactive effects of weather variability. The mean pertussis infections increased by over 1.7-fold in 0–4 years group when MeanT ≥14 °C, RH ≥57% and DTR ≥10 °C; by over 2.3-fold in 5–9 years group when MeanT ≥20 °C and MeanT SD ≥3 °C; by 2.0-fold in 10+ years group when MeanT ≥0.7 °C, DTR ≥8.3 °C and RH ≥74%. The study found significantly different associations between weather variability and pertussis infections by age group, and appeared to be stronger in 10+ years group. Continuing climate change, together with other risk factors such as low antibody levels among adolescents and adults, may facilitate pertussis resurgence. This supports previous suggestions of carefully reconsidering current vaccination programme to effectively curb the resurgence of pertussis.

Risk of contralateral breast and ipsilateral lung cancer induction from forward-planned IMRT for breast carcinoma

PurposeTo assess the risk of contralateral breast and ipsilateral lung cancer induction from forward-planned IMRT for breast carcinoma. MethodsThe study group included 13 females irradiated for breast cancer with 6 MV photons. The plans were initially generated by using standard fractionated (SF) forward-planned IMRT (50 Gy at 2 Gy/fraction). Hypofractionated (HF) IMRT (42.56 Gy at 2.66 Gy/fraction) was also employed for plan creation. Differential DVHs derived from the treatment plans were used to estimate the patient-specific organ equivalent dose (OED) to the contralateral breast and ipsilateral lung and the relevant lifetime attributable risks of cancer development. These estimates were made with a non-linear mechanistic model. The radiotherapy-induced cancer risks were combined with the lifetime intrinsic risk (LIR) values for unexposed people to determine the patient- and organ-specific relative risk (RR) for second cancer induction. ResultsThe OED of the contralateral breast from SF and HF forward-planned IMRT was up to 0.99 and 0.86 Gy, respectively. The corresponding values for the ipislateral lung were 4.15 and 3.66 Gy. The patient-specific RR range for the contralateral breast and ipislateral lung cancer induction following SF forward-planned IMRT was 1.04–1.10 and 1.60–1.81, respectively. The corresponding RRs from hypofractionated treatment were 1.03–1.09 and 1.53–1.73. ConclusionsThe treatment of primary breast carcinoma with the use of SF or HF forward-planned IMRT results in increased probabilities for developing secondary malignancies in the healthy contralateral breast or ipsilateral lung compared to the respective LIRs for an unexposed population.

Association of Clinical Specialty With Symptoms of Burnout and Career Choice Regret Among US Resident Physicians

Burnout among physicians is common and has been associated with medical errors and lapses in professionalism. It is unknown whether rates for symptoms of burnout among resident physicians vary by clinical specialty and if individual factors measured during medical school relate to the risk of burnout and career choice regret during residency. To explore factors associated with symptoms of burnout and career choice regret during residency. Prospective cohort study of 4732 US resident physicians. First-year medical students were enrolled between October 2010 and January 2011 and completed the baseline questionnaire. Participants were invited to respond to 2 questionnaires; one during year 4 of medical school (January-March 2014) and the other during the second year of residency (spring of 2016). The last follow-up was on July 31, 2016. Clinical specialty, demographic characteristics, educational debt, US Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 score, and reported levels of anxiety, empathy, and social support during medical school. Prevalence during second year of residency of reported symptoms of burnout measured by 2 single-item measures (adapted from the Maslach Burnout Inventory) and an additional item that evaluated career choice regret (defined as whether, if able to revisit career choice, the resident would choose to become a physician again). Among 4696 resident physicians, 3588 (76.4%) completed the questionnaire during the second year of residency (median age, 29 [interquartile range, 28.0-31.0] years in 2016; 1822 [50.9%] were women). Symptoms of burnout were reported by 1615 of 3574 resident physicians (45.2%; 95% CI, 43.6% to 46.8%). Career choice regret was reported by 502 of 3571 resident physicians (14.1%; 95% CI, 12.9% to 15.2%). In a multivariable analysis, training in urology, neurology, emergency medicine, and general surgery were associated with higher relative risks (RRs) of reported symptoms of burnout (range of RRs, 1.24 to 1.48) relative to training in internal medicine. Characteristics associated with higher risk of reported symptoms of burnout included female sex (RR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.28]; risk difference [RD], 7.2% [95% CI, 3.1% to 11.3%]) and higher reported levels of anxiety during medical school (RR, 1.08 per 1-point increase [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.11]; RD, 1.8% per 1-point increase [95% CI, 1.6% to 2.0%]). A higher reported level of empathy during medical school was associated with a lower risk of reported symptoms of burnout during residency (RR, 0.99 per 1-point increase [95% CI, 0.99 to 0.99]; RD, -0.5% per 1-point increase [95% CI, -0.6% to -0.3%]). Reported symptoms of burnout (RR, 3.20 [95% CI, 2.58 to 3.82]; RD, 15.0% [95% CI, 12.8% to 17.3%]) and clinical specialty (range of RRs, 1.66 to 2.60) were both significantly associated with career choice regret. Among US resident physicians, symptoms of burnout and career choice regret were prevalent, but varied substantially by clinical specialty. Further research is needed to better understand these differences and to address these issues.

Iranian high risk regions due to esophageal cancer: spatial analysis of cancer registry data.

The aim of this study was to identify the esophageal cancer (EC) high risk regions to evaluate changes of relative risks (RRs) for both genders by time in Iranian provinces. EC is one of the public health problems in Iran. In spite of this fact, there is not comprehensive study estimating RRs across the Iranian provinces. In this cross-sectional study the data for EC cases were extracted from Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME) including 30 provinces from 2004 to 2010. For estimating the model parameters, we used Bayesian approach by regarding spatial correlations of adjacent provinces. The Northern half of Iran has high risk and other half has low risk. During the time, the range of RRs has decreased for both gender and also the dispersion of EC is decreasing for women but nearly is fixed for men. While RR has declined during the study, focusing on the Northern half of Iran as high risk regions is a considerable fact for policymakers.

The influence of inter-fractional anatomy variation on secondary cancer risk estimates following radiotherapy

PurposeIn silico studies comparing estimated risks of radiation-induced secondary cancer (SC) are frequently performed in assessment of radiotherapy techniques. Since inter-patient anatomy variations can result in considerable differences in estimated risk we aimed to explore the influence of inter-fractional organ motion patterns on SC risk. MethodsVolumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans were generated on the planning CT (pCT) scans of eight prostate cancer patients. In addition, the treatment plans were re-calculated on 8–9 repeat CTs (rCTs) of each patient acquired throughout the treatment course. Relative risk (RR) of SC (VMAT/IMPT) was calculated for the planned and the re-calculated dose distributions using the organ equivalent dose concept adapted to a linear and a bell-shaped competition dose–response model. ResultsDay-to-day variations in anatomy lead to fluctuations in SC risk estimates of the same order of magnitude as those caused by inter-patient variations. Using the competition model, the RR range for bladder cancer based on the pCTs was 0.4–3.4, while a considerably wider range was found when including all rCTs (0.2–6.7). There was nevertheless a correlation in RR based on repeat CTs for individual patients, indicating that patient-specific SC risks could be estimated. ConclusionsThe estimated relative risks varied considerably across rCTs and could change the risk in favour of VMAT/IMPT depending on the anatomy of the day. The results demonstrate the importance of performing in silico studies of SC risk on a cohort of patients or multiple CTs when structures subject to organ motion are involved.