AimTo model the impact of a 20 % tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the disease burden of T2DM among Brazilian adults. MethodsThis is an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20 % tax on SSB and projected the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of T2DM over a 20-year period (2019 to 2039). Using recent national data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs and diabetes relative risk we estimated changes on T2DM burden. ResultsWith a 20 % tax on SSBs, after 10 years, we estimated a reduction of 37,303 new cases of T2DM for men and 56,757 for women; 184,129 prevalent cases for men and 219,236 for women; and 5,386 and 6,075 deaths for men and women, respectively. After 20 years, 8.6 % and 12.4 % new cases of T2DM will have been prevented, 4.0 % and 5.5 % prevalent cases, and 13.7 % and 12.7 % deaths among men and women, respectively. ConclusionsSSB taxes have the potential to reduce the burden of and deaths attributable to T2DM. Our results show that a fiscal policy may significantly impact strategic plans to tackle noncommunicable diseases.