Relative Price Effects Research Articles

Consumption composition and macroeconomic dynamics

AbstractWe analyze the transitional dynamics of an economic model with heterogeneous consumption goods where convergence is driven by two different forces: the typical diminishing returns to capital and the dynamic adjustment in consumption expenditure induced by the variation in relative prices. We show that this second force affects the growth rate if the consumption goods are produced with technologies exhibiting different capital intensities and if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not equal to one. Because the aforementioned growth effect of relative prices arises only under heterogeneous consumption goods, the transitional dynamics of this model exhibits striking differences with the growth model with a single consumption good. We also show that these differences in the transitional dynamics can give raise to large discrepancies in the welfare cost of shocks.

Input–output evidence on the relative price effects of total productivity shift

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relative price effects of a notional shift in total productivity using data from ten Symmetric Input–Output Tables of five European economies. The results suggest that the direction of the price-movements is, more often than not, governed by the (traditional) labour cost condition and this could be connected to the effective ranks of the matrices of the relative shares of the capital goods.

Amenity value in post-industrial Chinese cities: the case of Nanjing

Many Chinese cities are in a transition from industrial to post-industrial urban economies. In this process of urban restructuring, land use becomes polycentric and fragmented. More sophisticated models are needed to estimate the amenity effects of this complex residential environment. This article assesses the relative housing price effects of neighborhood characteristics and accessibility in Nanjing, China. This is achieved with a hedonic price model that incorporates detailed spatial measures, geographical contingency, and a modified version of Alonso’s (1964) general theory of land rent. A crucial finding is that the effect of job accessibility on house price varies depending upon the specific sector of employment. Accessibility to jobs in the public and private service sectors has strong positive effects. However, housing proximity to heavy industries has a spatially nonlinear effect: negative in close proximity, but positive at a larger distance. Second, when we control for job accessibility, access to public transport has an added positive effect. Finally, neighborhood “quality” (defined in terms of nearby amenities) is also relevant, but far less than access to service employment. This research shows that Nanjing’s housing prices are affected by different residential characteristics than those with dominant price effects in Western cities.

Fiscal policy and the current account: are microstates different?

This article examines the empirical link between fiscal policy and the current account focusing on microstates defined as countries with a population of less than 2 million between 1970 and 2009. This article employs panel regression and Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) on 155 countries of which 42 are microstates. Panel regression results show that a percentage point improvement in the fiscal balance improves the current account balance by 0.4 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on the current account in microstates but the coefficient is significant in the global sample. PVAR results show that an increase in government consumption results in real exchange appreciation, but the effect on the current account after an initial deterioration dies out quicker in microstates than in the global sample. The result implies that fiscal policy has little effect on the current account in microstates beyond its direct impact on imports. Overall, the results suggest that the weak relative price effects make the effect of fiscal adjustment on the current account much more difficult in microstates.

The empirical relevance of the Mises-Hayek theory of the trade cycle

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), as espoused by Mises (1912, 1949) and Hayek (1935), predicts changes in the economy’s structure of production following an unexpected change in monetary policy. In particular, following a credit expansion the theory predicts that: previously idle resources are drawn into the market, previously employed resources are used more intensively, and prices and quantities of goods in the intermediate stages of production decline relative to the prices and quantities of goods in other stages. To test the theory’s implications we employ stage of process data which classify goods by their distance to final consumption. Using this data we run structural vector autoregressions and isolate each variable’s response to a monetary shock. Consistent with the theory, we find that resource use expands on the intensive and extensive margin. On the other hand, we find little evidence of the relative price and quantity effects predicted by ABCT. Since the relative price effects are the distinguishing aspect of ABCT, we conclude that evidence in favor of the theory is, at best, mixed.

Effects of Family, Friends, and Relative Prices on Fruit and Vegetable Consumption by African Americans

We investigate the effects of parents, best friends, and relative prices on fruit and vegetable consumption by African American youths using behavioral data from the Family and Community Health Study and area‐specific food prices from the Quarterly Food‐at‐Home Price Database. We construct a simultaneous equation ordered probit model that accounts for social interactions in fruit and vegetable consumption and specific aspects of the available food intake data. We estimate statistically significant endogenous consumption effects between a youth and a parent. Lower relative prices tend to increase intakes, particularly in the case of vegetables; however, the statistical significance of these effects is marginal. The results indicate the existence of social multipliers in fruit and vegetable consumption in African American families. The presence of these multipliers supports the design of youth‐parent–based interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake by African Americans. Additionally, intake also may be increased through relative price reductions.

Pricing in the international takeoff of new products

This study focuses on the effect of two dimensions of price (relative price and price volatility) on the international takeoff of new products. The study examines these drivers of takeoff using a novel data set of bimonthly observations of 7 new consumer electronic products in 8 countries. The empirical analysis reveals that both relative price and price volatility significantly impact the hazard of takeoff. However, although the effect of relative price is stable across contexts, the effects of price volatility are moderated by wealth, culture, and contagion. The use of temporally disaggregate data at the bimonthly level allows for the identification of the effect of price volatility and enables a more precise identification of takeoff than that achievable with annual data.

Can Offshoring Reduce Unemployment?

In this paper, in order to study the impact offshoring on sectoral and economywide rates of unemployment, we construct a two-sector, general-equilibrium model in which labor is mobile across the two sectors, and unemployment is caused by search frictions. We find that, contrary to general perception, wage increases and sectoral unemployment decreases due to offshoring. This result can be understood to arise from the productivity enhancing (cost reducing) effect of offshoring. If the search cost is identical in the two sectors, or is higher in the sector which experiences offshoring, the economywide rate of unemployment decreases. When we modify the model to disallow intersectoral labor mobility, the negative relative price effect on the offshoring sector may offset the positive productivity effect, and result in a rise in unemployment in that sector. In the other sector, offshoring has a much stronger unemployment reducing effect in this case.

Time-Varying Effects of Housing and Stock Prices on U.S. Consumption

This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock prices on US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that over different horizons and over time, generally the housing price positively affects consumption while the stock price negatively affects consumption. These opposite responses to changes in housing and stock prices suggest different mechanisms through which wealth affects consumption. Further, the housing price effect proves larger in absolute value than the stock price effect after 1980. Between 1980 and 2007, housing wealth generally exerted a larger effect on consumption. This sub-period includes the 1997/2002 asset price boom/bust where house prices continued to rise moderately as stock prices fell. Finally, the co-occurrence of the decline in both housing and stock prices during the 2007-2009 episode produced bigger effects of the housing price for the first five years of the impulse responses while the higher magnitude of the stock price effect appears in the 6-year horizon. These findings suggest that the magnitude of the relative price effects differs with both time and horizons and also depends on whether prices increase or decrease.

An Empirical Investigation into the Relative Price Effect and Income Effect on China��s Financial Stability

An Empirical Investigation into the Relative Price Effect and Income Effect on China��s Financial Stability

Pricing in the International Takeoff of New Products

This study focuses on the effect of two dimensions of price (relative price and price volatility) on the international takeoff of new products. The study examines these drivers of takeoff using a novel data set of bimonthly observations from 7 new consumer electronic products across each of 8 countries. The empirical analysis reveals that both relative price and price volatility significantly impact the hazard of takeoff. However, while the effect of relative price holds steady across contexts, the effects of price volatility are moderated by wealth, culture, and contagion. The use of temporally disaggregate data at the bimonthly level allows the identification of the effect of price volatility and enables identification of takeoff more precisely than with annual data.

Domestic trading costs and pure theory of international trade

Abstract We use the HOS (Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson) model of international trade to find a link between trading (in particular domestic trading or retailing or domestic transport cost) costs, pattern of trade and volume of trade. Even if we use symmetric iceberg type trading costs, we generate relative price effects and prove that higher trading costs in labor‐abundant countries will restrict the volume of world trade and conversely for the capital‐abundant nation. Asymmetric trading cost between goods may have paradoxical output effects. A relatively capital‐abundant country will be worse off with increasing trading cost, whereas the labor‐abundant country may gain from further increases in trading cost.

Projections of OECD Health and Long-Term Care Public Expenditures

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status of the population. Concerning non-demographic drivers, for health care the projection method accounts for income elasticity and a residual effect of technology and relative prices. For long-term care, the effects of increased labor participation, reducing informal care, and wage inflation are taken into account. Following this approach, public health and long-term care expenditure are projected for all OECD countries for the years 2025 and 2050. Alternative scenarios are simulated, in particular a 'cost-pressure' and 'cost-containment' scenario, together with sensitivity analysis. Depending on the scenarios, the total health and long-term care spending is projected to increase on average across OECD countries in the range of 3.5 to 6 percentage points of GDP for the period 2005-2050.

Fiscal Policy and the Current Account: Are Microstates Different?

This paper examines the empirical link between fiscal policy and the current account focusing on microstates defined as countries with a population of less than 2 million between 1970 and 2009. The paper employs panel regression and panel vector autoregression (VAR) on 155 countries of which 42 are microstates. Panel regression results show that a percentage point improvement in the fiscal balance improves the current account balance by 0.4 percentage points of GDP. The real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on the current account in microstates but the coefficient is significant in the global sample. Panel VAR results show that an increase in government consumption results in real exchange appreciation but the effect on the current account after an initial deterioration dies out quicker in microstates than in the global sample. The result implies that fiscal policy has little effect on the current account in microstates beyond its direct impact on imports. Overall, the results suggest that the weak relative price effects make the effect of fiscal adjustment on the current account much more difficult in microstates.

Fiscal Policy and the Current Account: Are Microstates Different?

This paper examines the empirical link between fiscal policy and the current account focusing on microstates defined as countries with a population of less than 2 million between 1970 and 2009. The paper employs panel regression and panel vector autoregression (VAR) on 155 countries of which 42 are microstates. Panel regression results show that a percentage point improvement in the fiscal balance improves the current account balance by 0.4 percentage points of GDP. The real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on the current account in microstates but the coefficient is significant in the global sample. Panel VAR results show that an increase in government consumption results in real exchange appreciation but the effect on the current account after an initial deterioration dies out quicker in microstates than in the global sample. The result implies that fiscal policy has little effect on the current account in microstates beyond its direct impact on imports. Overall, the results suggest that the weak relative price effects make the effect of fiscal adjustment on the current account much more difficult in microstates.

An Empirical Analysis of Relative Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Net Processing Exports

This paper studies the effects of Chinese relative domestic oil prices on net processing exports. Using a set of monthly data ranging from 2002 to 2008, we identify a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between the two inflationary series. The unidirectional short-run Granger causality is running from relative oil prices to net processing exports, while in the long-run, the Granger causality is bidirectional. What is noteworthy is that relative oil price shocks have long-run positive effects on Chinese net processing exports, indicating the existence of an energy cost-driven mechanism of endogenous technological change.

The Optimal Rate of Inflation and the Sticky Price of Investment Goods

I study the effect of the trending relative price of investment on the optimal target rate of inflation. The price of investment has a decreasing trend relative to that of consumption because of investment-specific technological progress. If the prices of investment goods are sticky, a benevolent planner puts weight on stabilizing those prices, which works to raise the optimal target rate of inflation in terms of the price of consumption. The Bayesian estimation of a dynamic general equilibrium model that features the trending relative price of investment reveals a high degree of nominal rigidity in the prices of investment goods. The resulting optimal target rate of inflation is significantly positive with a median of 1.5 percent. The result is robust to the extended model in which the prices of some categories of investment goods are flexible.

Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model with Relative Price Effects and Non-Gorman Preferences

Growth of per-capita income is associated with (i) significant shifts in the sectoral economic structure, (ii) systematic changes in relative prices and (iii) the Kaldor facts. Moreover, (iv) cross-sectional data shows systematic expenditure structure difference between rich and poor households. Ngai and Pissarides (2006) and Acemoglu and Guerrieri (2008) are consistent with observation (i)-(iii) but abstract form non-homotheticities of preferences. However, they cannot replicate the structural change between the U.S. goods and service sector quantitatively. This paper presents a growth model, which reconciles both forces of structural change - relative price and income effects - with balanced growth on the aggregate. The theory is simple and parsimonious and contains an analytical solution. The model can replicate shape and magnitude of the nonbalanced sectoral facts as well as the balanced nature of growth on the aggregate. In a structural estimation, the model’s functional form is exploited to obtain estimates for the relative importance of income and price effects as determinants of the structural change.

Obesity, Affluence and Urbanisation in India

Based on data collected from a representative national sample, India Human Development Survey 2005, this paper investigates the links between obesity among children and among adults with a number of socio-economic characteristics as well as household and location specific variables. Both child and adult obesity are far from negligible, which is a matter of concern, given the links between obesity and some diseases. There are strong links between socio-economic indicators and risk of obesity. In particular, affluence has a robust link to obesity. Among children, taller children in more affluent households are more prone to obesity. Some demographic characteristics matter too, for example, both child and adult obesity rise with age but at a diminishing rate. Location also influences chances of obesity. Relative food price effects matter too through calorie, protein, fat and other nutrient intakes. A number of policy conclusions are also advanced.

Relative energy price and investment by European firms

A dynamic model of investment is estimated with data on non-financial firms in 15 European countries across 25 industries over 1991–2006. A rise in real energy price reduces the degree of persistence in the investment adjustment cost function. Panel results suggest that in manufacturing a 1% rise in real energy price reduces investment by a country's firms by 1.9% relative to that by firms in other countries with a smaller effect for non-manufacturing firms. The negative effect of a higher relative price of energy on firm-level investment is significantly less marked the larger the firm. Results imply that stabilizing the relative price of energy would steady firm investment with greater gains in stability at smaller and medium sized firms. Results are robust to consideration of country business cycle effect and firm leverage. Estimation of investment is based on the Euler equation approach with over 21,000 observations. Individual country regressions imply that a rise in the relative price of energy price has a statistically significant negative effect on firm-level investment in 14 out of 15 countries. To avoid dynamic panel bias estimation is by generalized method of moments with instrumental variables.