The high-precision load prediction technology plays a vital role in load control and health management for gas turbines. Low-calorific fuel fired gas turbines pose an especially significant challenge for load prediction due to the frequent and wide fluctuations of gas parameters. First, an improved hybrid-dimension physical-based model is proposed, which is corrected based on segmented operation data and integrates zero-dimensional thermodynamic knowledge of gas turbines with three-dimensional fluid dynamics simulation knowledge. Secondly, an optimal data-driven model is proposed through conducting a systematic comparative study on four popular machine learning models with two types of input variables feature extraction. Then, a novel hybrid model is proposed based on the improved physical-based model, optimal data-driven model, and the principle of minimizing hybrid model errors. The average relative prediction error of the hybrid model over the complete operation range is 0.68%. Compared with the physical-based model and the data-driven model, the proposed hybrid model can improve the prediction accuracy by 63% and 29%, respectively. As the high-calorific fuel fired gas turbine system is relatively simple and has a small range of fuel fluctuations, the method established in this paper can be extended to high-calorific fuel fired gas turbines, which is of great significance for promoting the dynamic balance of loads in a new type of electric power system based on new energy.
Read full abstract