Relative Plate Motion Research Articles

Strain Partitioning in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau From Kinematic Modeling of High‐Resolution Sentinel‐1 InSAR and GNSS

AbstractFault slip rates estimated from geodetic data are being integrated into seismic hazard models. The standard approach requires modeling velocities and relative (micro‐)plate motions, which is challenging for fault‐based models. We present a new approach to directly invert strain rates to solve for slip rates and distributed strain simultaneously. We generate velocity and strain rate fields over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, utilizing Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data spanning 2014–2023. We derive slip rates using block modeling and by inverting strain rates. Our results show a partitioning between localized strain on faults and distributed deformation. The direct inversion of strain rates matches the geodetic data best when incorporating distributed moment sources, accounting for a similar proportion to on‐fault sources. The direct strain methodology also aligns best with the independent geological slip rates, especially near fault tips. As high‐resolution strain rate fields become increasingly available, we recommend direct inversion as the preferred practice.

Earth’s tectonic and plate boundary evolution over 1.8 billion years

Understanding the intricate relationships between the solid Earth and its surface systems in deep time necessitates comprehensive full-plate tectonic reconstructions that include evolving plate boundaries and oceanic plates. In particular, a tectonic reconstruction that spans multiple supercontinent cycles is important to understand the long-term evolution of Earth’s interior, surface environments and mineral resources. Here, we present a new full-plate tectonic reconstruction from 1.8 Ga to present that combines and refines three published models: one full-plate tectonic model spanning 1 Ga to present and two continental-drift models focused on the late Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic eras. Our model is constrained by geological and geophysical data, and presented as a relative plate motion model in a paleomagnetic reference frame. The model encompasses three supercontinents, Nuna (Columbia), Rodinia, and Gondwana/Pangea, and more than two complete supercontinent cycles, covering ∼40% of the Earth’s history. Our refinements to the base models are focused on times before 1.0 Ga, with minor changes for the Neoproterozoic. For times between 1.8 Ga and 1.0 Ga, the root mean square speeds for all plates generally range between 4 cm/yr and 7 cm/yr (despite short-term fast motion around 1.1 Ga), which are kinematically consistent with post-Pangean plate tectonic constraints. The time span of the existence of Nuna is updated to between 1.6 Ga (1.65 Ga in the base model) and 1.46 Ga based on geological and paleomagnetic data. We follow the base models to leave Amazonia/West Africa separate from Nuna (as well as Western Australia, which only collides with the remnants of Nuna after initial break-up), and South China/India separate from Rodinia. Contrary to the concept of a “boring billion”, our model reveals a dynamic geological history between 1.8 Ga and 0.8 Ga, characterized by supercontinent assembly and breakup, and continuous accretion events. The model is publicly accessible, providing a framework for future refinements and facilitating deep time studies of Earth’s system. We suggest that the model can serve as a valuable working hypothesis, laying the groundwork for future hypothesis testing.

Autobiography: A 50-Year Quest for Understanding in Geoscience

Readers will be led down a random path from continental dynamics to paleoclimate. A key to understanding continental dynamics is recognizing that differences in gravitational potential energy per unit area between high and low terrain govern much of large-scale continental deformation. Removal of mantle lithosphere, not just crustal thickening, plays a crucial, but difficult-to-test, role in changes in surface elevation. Although measuring past surface heights remains a challenge, indications of such processes suggest that surface uplift associated with such removal can affect relative plate motion. Climate change, from a warmer to cooler climate, and associated changes in erosion and sedimentation introduce further complications to determining past elevations. The phenomena that led to such cooling include a number of possibilities, but I favor the emergence of islands in the Maritime continent, which transformed the Pacific Ocean from one with a warm eastern tropical Pacific, as during El Niño events, to the present-day La Niña–like background state. Teleconnections from the eastern tropical Pacific to Canada affect the duration of summers and the potential of high-latitude ice to accumulate. ▪Lateral gradients in gravitational potential energy per unit area (GPE), a force per unit length, govern large-scale continental dynamics.▪Removal of mantle lithosphere and thickening of crust raise GPE; knowledge of mean surface elevations provides a test of these processes.▪Climate change from a warmer to cooler climate and from one with less to more erosion can give the false impression of elevation change.▪Emergence of Indonesian islands, more rain over them, a stronger Walker Circulation, and cooler eastern Pacific may have led to ice ages.

Strain localization instabilities and the genesis of multiple axes of seafloor spreading in the Carmen basin, southern Gulf of California

We present new insight into the tectonic evolution of the Carmen basin (CB) in the southern Gulf of California (GC) from high-resolution bathymetry and two-dimensional seismic reflection data. Our goal is to document the seafloor morphology and sub-surface acoustic characteristics to understand the structure and crustal lithology across the CB. We identify three sub-basins with distinct geometries and evolutionary histories, with basement structures displaying a strong affinity with highly reflective, sigmoidal-shaped layers and the emplacement of high-amplitude tabular material underlying sediments with varying stratigraphic thicknesses. From the extent of new oceanic crust accreted along the CB, we estimate the age of the basin using a seafloor spreading rate of 52 mm/year, which is the average velocity of the relative plate motion between the Baja California microplate and the North American plate, as documented by previous authors. The southern and central sub-basins of the CB are mainly abandoned, while the northern one is currently the locus of seafloor spreading. This is evidenced by the juxtaposition of oceanic crust younger than ~ 1.9 Ma against older oceanic crust correlating in age with the adjacent Guaymas and Farallon basins to the northeast and southwest, respectively. We propose that mantle upwelling beneath the CB is a northward continuation of the East Pacific Rise, resulting in a fast-evolving system with sharp variations in strain localization within the seafloor spreading centers of the CB.Graphical

A pressure solution flow law for the seismogenic zone: Application to Cascadia.

We develop a linear viscous constitutive relationship for pressure solution constrained by models of deformed metasedimentary rocks and observations of exposed rocks from ancient subduction zones. We include pressure and temperature dependence on the solubility of silica in fluid by parameterizing a practical van't Hoff relationship. This general flow law is well suited for making predictions about interseismic behavior of subduction zones. We apply the flow law to Cascadia, where thermal structure, geometry, relative plate velocity, and Global Positioning System velocity field are well constrained. Results are consistent with the temperature conditions at which resolvable ductile strain is recorded in subducted mudstones (at depths near the updip limit of the seismogenic zone) and with relative plate motion accommodated completely by viscous deformation (at depths near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone). The flow law also predicts the observed forearc tapering of slip rate deficit with depth.

Overture for the Mandara and Vasuki Plates

Models of past plate motions in the Indian Ocean help map the supercontinent Gondwana and investigate how mantle plumes influence plate tectonics. Reducing confidence in this, however, the range of available models all produce large pre-94 Ma movements, in various kinematic senses, between India and Madagascar. There is no observational evidence for any of these motions, suggesting along with their diversity that they are artefacts stemming from contrasting resolutions of techniques used for reconstructing India and Madagascar to Antarctica. A higher resolution approach to India–Antarctica reconstruction concentrates on geophysical records of relative plate motion azimuths. Applying its results regionally eliminates Indo-Malagasy motions before 94 Ma, and prompts new hypotheses of two small tectonic plates. The early Cretaceous Mandara plate, in the Enderby Basin off East Antarctica, may have initiated and rotated at a mid-ocean ridge that was supplied by excess melt from the Kerguelen plume. The late Cretaceous Vasuki plate may have conveyed Sri Lanka southwards across the western Bay of Bengal. The 85°E and Comorin ridges may have formed at active transform fault zones along Vasuki’s margins that were supplied with excess melt from the Crozet and Marion plumes. The model confidently implies the presence of 500,000 km2 of continental crust beneath the Kerguelen Plateau, places Sri Lanka 1000 km further east within Gondwana than previous reconstructions, and casts doubt on the existence of plate kinematic signals that have previously been attributed to the arrival and spread of the Marion plume beneath India and Madagascar at ~105 Ma.

One tune, many tempos: Faults trade off slip in time and space to accommodate relative plate motions

Analysis of incremental slip rates from the four major strike-slip faults of the Marlborough fault system (MFS) of northern South Island, New Zealand, provides a first-ever record at the scale of an entire plate-boundary fault system of how relative plate motions are accommodated in time and space. This record, which spans the past 350–450 m of relative plate motion and ca. 12–14 ky, demonstrates that the fault system as a whole accommodates a steady plate-boundary slip rate, with the MFS faults “keeping up” with the overall rate of relative Pacific-Australia plate motion at relatively short displacement (10 s of meters) and time (102–103 yr) scales. These results affirm the often-assumed but until now unproven assumption that the relative plate-motion rate provides a robust basic constraint on both geodynamical models and analyses of system-level seismic hazard at these scales. In marked contrast, the incremental slip rates of each of the four main Marlborough faults are highly variable through time, marked by coordinated accelerations and decelerations spanning 4–6 earthquakes and several millennia as the faults trade off slip to accommodate a steady relative plate motion rate. These results suggest that (a) the weakest fault in the system will slip faster than average while adjacent mechanically complementary faults slip more slowly, and (b) that these patterns switch back and forth through time, likely reflecting reversible changes in the strength (i.e., resistance to shear) of the individual faults as they collectively accommodate relative plate motion. Interestingly, the periods of fast slip on the MFS faults exhibit ∼20–25 m of displacement, suggesting that these may record periods of fast slip on a weakened fault/ductile shear zone that continues until it uses up all locally stored elastic strain energy, thus potentially approaching local complete stress drop, albeit during a few tens of meters of rapid fault slip during multiple earthquakes, rather than during a single event. This hypothesis is consistent with typical earthquake stress drops of ∼1–10 MPa and estimates of depth-averaged crustal shear stress of a few 10 s of MPa, such as might be released in clusters of 4–6 earthquakes. These results emphasize the need to analyze the collective behavior of the entire fault systems, rather than just individual faults, to understand the mechanics of the system. Moreover, these patterns suggest a potential path forward for more accurate estimation of time-dependent seismic hazard, with the possible incorporation of current position of a fault within a fast- or slow/no-slip period into the probability analysis, as well as a means of potentially estimating crustal shear stress.

Spectral and Energy–Lyapunov stability of streamwise Couette–Poiseuille and spanwise Poiseuille base flows

When a fluid fills an infinite layer between two rigid plates in relative motion, and it is simultaneously subject to a gradient of pressure not parallel to the motion, the base flow is a combination of Couette–Poiseuille in the direction along the boundaries’ relative motion, but it also possess a Poiseuille component in the transverse direction. For this reason the linearised equations include all variables x, y, z, and not only explicitly two variables x, z as it typically happens in the literature. For convenience, we indicate as streamwise the direction of the relative motions of the plates, and spanwise the orthogonal direction. We use Chebyshev collocation method to investigate the monotonic behaviour of the energy along perturbations of general streamwise Couette–Poiseuille plus spanwise Poiseuille base flow, thus obtaining energy-critical Reynolds numbers depending on two parameters. We finally compute the spectrum of the linearisation at such base flows, and hence determine spectrum-critical Reynolds numbers depending on the two parameters. The choice of convex combinations of Couette and Poiseuille flows along the streamwise direction, and spanwise Poiseuille flow, affects the value of the energy-critical Reynolds and wave numbers in interesting ways. Also the spectrum-critical Reynolds and wave numbers depend on the type of base flow in peculiar ways. These dependencies are not described in the literature.

Crustal Structure Across the Central Dead Sea Transform and Surrounding Areas: Insights Into Tectonic Processes in Continental Transforms

AbstractNew geophysical profiles across the central Dead Sea Transform (DST) near the Sea of Galilee, Israel, and surrounding highlands, augmented by static stress modeling, allow us to study continental transform plate deformation. The DST separates a ∼10 km thick sedimentary column above a thinned (16–23 km) crust to the west from a ∼7 km column above a ∼30‐km thick crust to the east. Crustal thinning starts under the DST, as observed also farther south, indicating that the DST is indeed located along the boundary between the Arabian plate and its continental margin. Moho step here is gradual. The DST's eastern shoulder dips westward toward the DST unlike the upward flexed shoulder observed farther south, perhaps delineating the northern limit of a thinner and hotter lithosphere. The shape of the Sea of Galilee is modeled as an asymmetric pull‐apart basin formed by a left‐lateral stepover of 2.6 km between slightly divergent and underlapping strike‐slip fault strands dipping 70° to the west. Reflection data indicate that these strands are not connected. Several fault traces within the Sea of Galilee have previously been suggested to carry part of the relative plate motion. However, given slip along the main DST faults, Coulomb stress will increase only on fault portions in the northern part of the lake, in accord with the geographical distribution of seismicity, suggesting that these faults are likely secondary. Mismatch between the DST strand locations in the geophysical profiles and the subsidence model, may reflect temporal changes in fault geometry.

Propulsion due to thermal streaming

We demonstrate that the relative motion of horizontal parallel plates can be generated using patterned heating. This movement is driven by nonlinear thermal streaming associated with a pitchfork bifurcation. The propulsive effect is strongest when all the heating energy is concentrated in a single Fourier mode of the spatial heating pattern; it increases with a decrease in the Prandtl number and increases with the addition of a uniform heating component.

Casimir–Lifshitz Friction Force and Kinetics of Radiative Heat Transfer between Metal Plates in Relative Motion

Casimir–Lifshitz Friction Force and Kinetics of Radiative Heat Transfer between Metal Plates in Relative Motion

Tidal drag and westward drift of the lithosphere

Tidal forces are generally neglected in the discussion about the mechanisms driving plate tectonics despite a worldwide geodynamic asymmetry also observed at subduction and rift zones. The tidal drag could theoretically explain the westerly shift of the lithosphere relative to the underlying mantle. Notwithstanding, viscosity in the asthenosphere is apparently too high to allow mechanical decoupling produced by tidal forces. Here, we propose a model for global scale geodynamics accompanied by numerical simulations of the tidal interaction of the Earth with the Moon and the Sun. We provide for the first time a theoretical proof that the tidal drag can produce a westerly motion of the lithosphere, also compatible with the slowing of the Earth’s rotational spin. Our results suggest a westerly rotation of the lithosphere with a lower bound of ω≈(0.1-0.2)°/Myr in the presence of a basal effective shear viscosity η≈1016 Pa·s, but it may rise to ω>1°/Myr with a viscosity of η≲3×1014 Pa·s within the Low-Velocity Zone (LVZ) atop the asthenosphere. This faster velocity would be more compatible with the mainstream of plate motion and the global asymmetry at plate boundaries. Based on these computations, we suggest that the super-adiabatic asthenosphere, being vigorously convecting, may further reduce the viscous coupling within the LVZ. Therefore, the combination of solid Earth tides, ultra-low viscosity LVZ and asthenospheric polarized small-scale convection may mechanically satisfy the large-scale decoupling of the lithosphere relative to the underlying mantle. Relative plate motions are explained because of lateral viscosity heterogeneities at the base of the lithosphere, which determine variable lithosphere-asthenosphere decoupling and plate interactions, hence plate tectonics.

On fast peristaltic waves

An asymptotic analysis is conducted of the effect surface vibrations may play in mitigating the resistance present in the system consisting of a fluid contained between a pair of parallel flat plates in relative motion. Previous numerical computations of this situation, which has applications in both biological and technological contexts, have suggested that small vibrations that move at a fast phase speed can lead to substantial reductions in the resistance. The effect seems to be a somewhat intricate function of the wavelength of the vibration modes. Our analysis uncovers the properties of the various phenomena that are at work and describes the interplay between them. The techniques employed here lend themselves to the extension to other situations including problems in which propulsion effects in fluid systems can be induced by vibrations.

Using discordant U-Pb zircon data to re-evaluate the El Paso terrane: Late Paleozoic tectonomagmatic evolution of east-central California (USA) and intense hydrothermal activity in the Jurassic Sierra Nevada arc

AbstractQuantitative modeling of discordant detrital zircon U-Pb isotope data from the northern El Paso terrane reveals metamorphosed Laurentian passive-margin strata within the Kern Plateau (southeastern Sierra Nevada), resolving a 40-year-long debate regarding this terrane’s origin. Previous studies of Kern Plateau pendants identify deep-water metasediments containing detrital zir-con populations similar to the Roberts Mountains allochthon; yet structural observations seemingly contradict proposed correlations to the Mississippian Roberts Mountains thrust, which juxtaposes exotic deep-water rocks over shallow-water, passive-margin strata in central Nevada. Here, new samples are combined with published data to identify segments of the thrust within the Kern Plateau, demonstrating that the El Paso terrane was offset ~350 km by late Paleozoic sinistral translation along the braided Kern Plateau shear zone, an abandoned model first proposed more than 20 years ago.New U-Pb-Hf isotope data from plutons intruding the Kern Plateau shear zone are virtually identical to published data from the El Paso Mountains, indicating that the Sierra Nevada–Mojave arc initiated in the late Early Permian (ca. 274 Ma) along the entire length of the El Paso terrane and was active into the Middle Triassic (ca. 240 Ma). Previously implicated Late Triassic arc activity within the Kern Plateau is not corroborated by single-crystal U-Pb data. Published structural evidence indicating reactivation of the late Paleozoic Kern Plateau shear zone is reinterpreted as indicating sinistral-oblique relative plate motion during Permian arc initiation followed by Middle Jurassic extension in the southeastern Sierra Nevada arc, which facilitated intense hydrothermal activity and zircon lead loss.

Effects of Tectonic Quiescence Between Orogeny and Rifting

AbstractTectonic quiescence is a period of nearly null relative plate motion. During the Atlantic Ocean opening, rifting cut across continental segments of supercontinent Pangea that had been through different periods of quiescence, which varied from tens to hundreds of Myr. Using numerical models, we explored the effects of quiescence between orogeny and rifting on the pre‐rift lithosphere and subsequent conjugate rifted margin configuration. Our model results showed that quiescence of ∼30–60 Myr caused wide orogenic wedges (>300 km) to be heated beneath their centers, which led to the breakup of the lithospheric mantle before the breakup of the continental crust during rifting, resulting in hyperextended conjugate rifted margins. In these scenarios, continental lithosphere breakup away from the suture contributed to the preservation of previously subducted lower crust along the subduction zone. Long periods of tectonic quiescence (∼100 Myr) experienced by a wide orogen permitted efficient orogenic collapse and lateral spreading, with pronounced lithospheric thermal weakening. Consequently, post‐quiescence rifting reactivated the suture and effectively drove plate eduction, exhuming most of the subducted continental lower crust and mantle lithosphere. Ultimately, ultra‐wide domains developed into asymmetric conjugate margins. Contrastingly, in narrow orogenic wedges (<200 km), different quiescence durations had minor effects on the margin architecture. In these cases, a longer quiescence time contributed to a larger preservation of subducted crust in the fossil subduction zone after rifting. Our models agree with conjugate rifted margins in the North and South Atlantic, which probably developed after the collapse of wide orogens and subsequent periods of tectonic quiescence.

Rapid absolute plate motion changes inferred from high-resolution relative spreading reconstructions: A case study focusing on the South America plate and its Atlantic/Pacific neighbors

The reconstruction of past plate motions relative to a deemed–to–be–fixed hotspot reference frame relies on the sparse occurrence of intraplate volcanism. Consequently, this absolute reference frame often features a temporal resolution that exceeds the rapid kinematic changes observed in plate–to–plate spreading reconstructions, changes recently shown to occur within less than 5 Ma. In this work we put forward an alternative method based on the study of high–resolution relative plate motion data sets. By studying time periods featuring a relatively high probability of plate motion change across multiple spreading ridges, we are able to identify and quantify (likely) changes in absolute plate motion. Specifically, we implement such approach and provide well–defined estimates for the absolute plate motion changes of South America and neighboring plates Nubia, Antarctica, Somalia, North America and Pacific. We find that kinematic changes for all these plates occur between 9 and 5 Ma. For South America, we identify a change also between 14 and 10 Ma. Lastly, we estimate the torque–variations required upon these plates to generate the inferred kinematic changes, which we find to be between ∼5⋅1023 and ∼20⋅1024 N ⋅ m.

Analytical and Numerical Study of Steady Flow of Thermo-Viscous Fluid Between Two Horizontal Parallel Plates in Relative Motion

In the present paper we examined the Analytical and Numerical study of steady flow of thermo viscous fluid between two parallel horizontal plates in relative motion. The numerical solutions of governing equations of flow involving velocity and temperature have been obtained using 6th order R-K methods via MATHEMATICA ND solver. The governing equations of the flow also have been solved analytically. The numerical solutions for different values of the physical parameters like thermal stress interaction material coefficient, thermo conductivity parameter and the porosity coefficient have been presented in terms of tables and illustrated graphically. The results for linearized steady incompressible motion fluid flow in between two non-porous parallel horizontal plates also obtained both numerically and analytically. The numerical and analytical results are compared and are verified to be in good convergence. The solutions of the present investigation will definitely give an excellent perception of nuclear, industrial and clinical applications.

Ordovician–Silurian true polar wander as a mechanism for severe glaciation and mass extinction

The Ordovician–Silurian transition experienced severe, but enigmatic, glaciation, as well as a paradoxical combination of mass extinction and species origination. Here we report a large and fast true polar wander (TPW) event that occurred 450–440 million years ago based on palaeomagnetic data from South China and compiled reliable palaeopoles from all major continents. Collectively, a ~50˚ wholesale rotation with maximum continental speeds of ~55 cm yr−1 is demonstrated. Multiple isolated continents moving rapidly, synchronously, and unidirectionally is less consistent with and plausible for relative plate motions than TPW. Palaeogeographic reconstructions constrained by TPW controlling for palaeolongitude explain the timing and migration of glacial centers across Gondwana, as well as the protracted end-Ordovician mass extinction. The global quadrature pattern of latitude change during TPW further explains why the extinction was accompanied by elevated levels of origination as some continents migrated into or remained in the amenable tropics.

Timing the break-up of the Baltica and Laurentia connection in Nuna – Rapid plate motion oscillation and plate tectonics in the Mesoproterozoic

Meso– to Neoproterozoic geological and paleomagnetic data support a direct connection between Baltica and Laurentia in both Nuna and Rodinia supercontinents, however in different relative configurations. Previous paleomagnetic data limit the time of break-up of Nuna core configuration and ca. 90° rotation of Baltica relative to Laurentia between 1.27 Ga and 0.99 Ga. Despite the well documented relative motion of continents, the tectonic mode during the Meso– to Neoproterozoic has been questioned and the operation of single lid tectonics at 1.6–1.0 Ga during the Nuna-Rodinia supercontinent cycles has been proposed.In this study, new paleomagnetic and whole rock 40Ar-39Ar geochronological data from a basic dyke in Stugun central Sweden are combined with coeval data to produce a 1.22 Ga (1.244–1.200 Ga) moderate-quality paleomagnetic pole. This is done to better estimate the break-up time of the core of Nuna and explore the plate tectonics at the Mesoproterozoic. The new pole fills part of the 1.247–1.140 Ga gap in the paleomagnetic record of Baltica. By comparing apparent polar wander paths (APWPs) and calculated drift velocities, a break-up of Baltica and Laurentia at 1.12–1.04 Ga is suggested. Plate velocities calculated for Laurentia, Baltica and Siberia for the time of the Nuna supercycle are similar and low to moderately high corresponding with the present-day tectonic speeds. Furthermore, the obtained velocity peaks may be related with onset of the break-up of the Nuna supercontinent, the break-up of the direct Baltica–Laurentia connection in Nuna and nascent Rodinia. We suggest that the velocity peaks and large oscillating shifts in late Mesoproterozoic pole positions for Laurentia and Baltica result from a combination of relative plate motion and inertial interchange true polar wander (IITPW) events. Both IITPW events and relative plate motions argue for an operation of plate tectonics in the Meso– to Neoproterozoic.

Forecasting tectonic tremor activity using a renewal process model

In many tectonically active regions of the world, a variety of slow deformation phenomena have been discovered and collectively termed slow earthquakes. Tectonic tremor is the high-frequency component of slow earthquakes and can be analyzed to monitor the overall slow deformation process, both spatially and temporally. Although tectonic tremor activity is complex, it does possess some characteristic patterns, such as spatial segmentation, a quasi-periodic recurrence, migration, and tidal modulation. These features are helpful for forecasting future activity if they are properly modeled in a quantitative manner. Here, we propose a stochastic renewal process to standardize and forecast tectonic tremor activity in the Nankai subduction zone, southwest Japan, using a 12.5-year tremor catalog that is divided into a 10-year estimation period and 2.5-year forecasting period. We group the tremor events into small rectangular 10-km regions and observe that the distribution of inter-event times is nearly bimodal, with the short and long inter-event times representing the characteristic times of nearby tremor interactions and long-term stress accumulation processes, respectively. Therefore, as the probabilistic distribution for the renewal process, we adopt a mixture distribution of log-normal and Brownian passage time distributions for the short and long inter-event times, respectively. The model parameters are successfully estimated for 72% of the entire tremor zone using a maximum likelihood method. This standard model can be used to extract anomalous tremor activity, such as that associated with long-term slow-slip events. We derive a scaling relationship between two characteristic times, the relative plate motion, episodicity of tremor activity, and tremor duration by characterizing the spatial differences in tremor activity. We confirm that the model can forecast the occurrence of the next tremor event at a given reference time for a certain prediction interval. This study can serve as a first step for implementing more complex models to improve the space–time forecasting of slow earthquakes.