Relative Duration Research Articles

METHADONE AND MORPHINE FOR THE TREATMENT OF NEONATAL ABSTINENCE SYNDROME: A COMPARISON OF SAFETY AND EFFICACY

This study was designed to compare the safety and efficacy of morphine and methadone for treating NAS. A randomized, double-blind study was conducted at The Children’s Hospital & The Institute of Child Health Multan from December 2021 to December 2022. A total of 180 pregnant women were enrolled in the study, of which 114 needed treatment and were randomized (1:1) to receive morphine or methadone. Standardized Finnegan Score (FS)was used to assess infants every four hours. Methadone alternating with placebo or neonatal diluted morphine was administered to infants every four hours. The primary endpoint of the study was the duration of the hospital stay. Both the methadone and morphine groups had similar risk factors and demographic variables. There was a total of 14 adverse events equally distributed in both groups. After adjusting for the type of opioid used by the mother, it wasfound that the mean relative duration of hospital stay was 13% (which corresponds to the difference of 2.8 days) lower in the methadone group compared to morphine. The duration of treatment was 15% (which corresponds to a difference of 2.2 days) lower in the methadone group than in morphine. The median hospital stay with methadone was 15 days compared to 19 days with morphine (P = .005). Based on the results, it can be concluded that for the treatment of NAS, methadone had better short-term outcomes than morphine

Improved Virtual Space Vector Modulation Scheme for the Reduced Switch Count Three-Level Inverter With Balanced and Unbalanced Neutral-Point Voltage Conditions

This article presents an improved virtual space vector modulation scheme for the reduced switch count three-level inverter with balanced and unbalanced neutral-point voltage (NPV) conditions. By analyzing the effects of unbalanced NPV conditions on basic voltage vectors, the new virtual vectors are constructed by considering the dc unbalancing coefficient and distribution factor for small vectors simultaneously. To facilitate the calculation of duty cycles, the nonorthogonal coordinate system is employed. In addition, an optimized control scheme is developed to obtain the optimized distribution factor, and the relative durations of P-type and N-type small vectors are adjusted to control the voltages across two dc-link capacitors separately. The satisfactory quality of output currents is maintained with both balanced and unbalanced NPV conditions. The feasibility of the proposed scheme is verified by simulated and experimental results.

Ultrasound-guided anterior iliopsoas muscle space block effectively reduces intraoperative hypotension in elderly adults undergoing hip surgery: A randomised controlled trial.

Hypotension often occurs during hip surgery in elderly adults with conventional posterior lumbosacral plexus block. We conducted a randomised controlled trial to determine if simple iliopsoas space block can lower the incidence of intraoperative hypotension (IOH) and provide sufficient perioperative pain relief during hip fracture surgery in elderly adults. Patients undergoing surgery for elderly hip fracture were randomised to receive either an anterior iliopsoas space block with a lateral femoral cutaneous nerve block or a posterior lumbosacral plexus block. The primary outcome was a composite measure of IOH incidence comprising frequency, absolute and relative hypotension durations. Compared to the posterior group, the iliopsoas space block group had a decreased median frequency of IOH [1.09 (0-2. 14) vs. 3 (1.6-4.8), p = 0.001, respectively] along with lower absolute [5 (0-10) min] and relative [minutes below systolic blood pressure of 100 mmHg in % of total anaesthesia time, 6.67 (0-7.65)] duration of IOH compared to the posterior group [35 (10-45) min, p = 0.008; 37.6 (12.99-66.18), p = 0.004, respectively]. The median pain levels in the post-anaesthesia care unit and median intraoperative sufentanil usage were comparable between the iliopsoas space group [2 (1-3); 8 (6-10) μg] and posterior group [1 (0-3); 5 (5-8) μg]. Thermal imaging revealed that the limb injected with the iliopsoas space block had a higher skin temperature than the unblocked limb in the sacral plexus innervated region. A single iliopsoas space block lowers the IOH incidence and provides comparable perioperative analgesia to conventional lumbosacral plexus block. Trial registration at www.chictr.org.cn (ChiCTR2100051394); registered 22 September 2021.

Physical demands during 3 × 3 international male and female basketball games are partially impacted by competition phase but not game outcome.

Despite the increased popularity and number of international competitions for 3 × 3 basketball, the precise physical demands of this sport are not well described. Therefore, this study aimed to quantify the physical demands of 3 × 3 basketball games according to game outcome and competition phase. Following an observational design, video footage from 27 games were analysed from 104 international 3 × 3 basketball players (n = 52 male and n = 52 female players) belonging to 26 national teams (n = 13 male and n = 13 female teams) during the 2019 FIBA 3 × 3 World Cup. Manual frame-by-frame time-motion analyses were conducted to determine the relative frequency (n · min-1) and duration (% of live playing time) for several physical demand variables to make comparisons according to game outcome (win vs. loss) and competition phase (group games vs. finals games). Linear mixed models for repeated measures and effect size analyses revealed non-significant, trivial-small differences in physical demands between games that were won and lost. Regarding competition phase, male players completed more high-intensity activity (sprinting, high-intensity specific movements, and jumping) but spent a greater proportion of playing time jumping and performing recovery activities (standing/ walking) during finals games than group games (P < 0.05, small), while female players performed more low-intensity activity (jogging and low-intensity specific movements) during group games than finals games (P < 0.05, small). These findings indicate that the physical capabilities of male and female 3 × 3 basketball players may not be the determining factor for team success in games and players can mostly maintain activity outputs across phases of tournament play conducted at the highest international standard.

Improved Multi-Path Routing for QoS on MANET

A Mobile Ad hoc NETwork (MANET) is a self-configuring network that is not reliant on infrastructure. This paper introduces a new multipath routing method based on the Multi-Hop Routing (MHR) technique. MHR is the consecutive selection of suitable relay nodes to send information across nodes that are not within direct range of each other. Failing to ensure good MHR leads to several negative consequences, ultimately causing unsuccessful data transmission in a MANET. This research work consists of three portions. The first to attempt to propose an efficient MHR protocol is the design of Priority Based Dynamic Routing (PBDR) to adapt to the dynamic MANET environment by reducing Node Link Failures (NLF) in the network. This is achieved by dynamically considering a node’s mobility parameters like relative velocity and link duration, which enable the next-hop selection. This method works more efficiently than the traditional protocols. Then the second stage is the Improved Multi-Path Dynamic Routing (IMPDR). The enhancement is mainly focused on further improving the Quality of Service (QoS) in MANETs by introducing a QoS timer at every node to help in the QoS routing of MANETs. Since QoS is the most vital metric that assesses a protocol, its dynamic estimation has improved network performance considerably. This method uses distance, linkability, trust, and QoS as the four parameters for the next-hop selection. IMPDR is compared against traditional routing protocols. The Network Simulator-2 (NS2) is used to conduct a simulation analysis of the protocols under consideration. The proposed tests are assessed for the Packet Delivery Ratio (PDR), Packet Loss Rate (PLR), End-to-End Delay (EED), and Network Throughput (NT).

Звонкость согласных в сургутском диалекте хантыйского языка по данным электроглоттографии

This paper presents an experimental phonetic study of consonant voicing in Surgut Khanty conducted with one na-tive speaker of the Trom-Agan sub-dialect using a Rose Medical EGG-D200 laryngograph and icSpeech software. The vocal cord activity was assessed non-invasively with sensors on the speaker’s throat. The recordings were seg-mented and annotated via Praat software and then statistically processed with the Emu-SDMS corpus manager and R programming language. A voicing rate was calculated as the relative duration of the sound segment defining the fundamental frequency. Over 770 sound segments were processed. The obstruent consonants /p/, /t/, /c͡ç/, /k/, /s/, /ɬ/, and /ʎ̥/ were pronounced voicelessly, partially voiced in intervocalic position but never having sonants’ and vowels’ typical values. The obstruent consonants had the voicing coefficients of 0–0,44, with the mean values for different phonemes of 0,02–0,06, while vowels feature the voicing coefficients of 0,44–0,89 and the mean values of 0,53–0,82. The sonor consonants /m/, /n/, /r/, /j/, /ɣ/, /ɲ/, /ŋ/, and /w/ were pronounced as voiced in the initial and medial positions. In the final position, the sonor consonants were realized as devoiced or voiceless depending on the syntagmatic conditions, with the voicing coefficients of 0–0,83 and average values of 0,4–0,63. The paper provides oscillograms and glottograms for the sounds investigated. A control evaluation was conducted using the acoustic data. The comparison of the consonant voicing data from the audio recording and glottography revealed only the latter method to accurately detect a boundary of the voiced segment.

Maternal Methyl-Enriched Diet Normalizes Characteristics of the Sleep–Wake Cycle and Sleep Spindles in Adult Offspring of WAG/Rij Rats with Genetic Absence Epilepsy

It has been previously shown that the perinatal maternal methyl-enriched diet (MED) reduces the number of spike-wave discharges (SWDs) and behavioral symptoms of depression in the adult offspring of WAG/Rij rats. Epilepsy and depression are usually accompanied by disturbances in the sleep-wake cycle. SWDs and sleep spindles are different manifestations of thalamocortical activity It is assumed that pathological alterations in the thalamocortical system that lead to SWD also change the sleep spindles. It is possible that the maternal MED has a positive effect not only on the SWD, but also on the sleep spindles. The purpose of this work is to find out whether maternal MED affects the sleep-wake cycle and whether it changes the characteristics of sleep spindles in adult offspring of WAG/Rij rats. It has been shown that in the offspring of WAG/Rij rats born to mothers who consumed MED during the perinatal period compared to the offspring whose mothers consumed control diet (CD), the relative duration of REM sleep significantly increases. In the offspring of WAG/Rij rats whose mothers consumed MED, the relative duration of REM sleep and the number of its episodes become indistinguishable from those in non-epileptic Wistar rats. Maternal MED also increases the number of transitions from slow-wave to REM sleep. There is a significant negative correlation between the number of SWDs and the duration of REM sleep. Maternal MED compare to CD decreased the amplitude and spectral power density of sleep spindles. They became much closer to the amplitude and spectral power of density of sleep spindles in Wistar rats. Thus, maternal MED normalizes characteristics of the sleep-wake cycle and sleep spindles in adult offspring of WAG/Rij rats. We hypothesize that this positive effect is associated with a reduction in the symptoms of absence epilepsy and comorbid depression, as well as with the correction of the activity of the thalamocortical system.

Prosodic marking of contrast in LSFB (French Belgian Sign Language)

Abstract This paper examines the relationships between information structure and prosody in LSFB (French Belgian Sign Language), focusing on the marking of contrast. A recurrent assertion in the literature is that contrast is always marked by prosodic prominence. We discuss this interaction at the manual level by investigating the connections between the presence or absence of a manual prosodic marker and the contrastive or non-contrastive character of a sign. To explore this connection, we examine data related to the holds, dominance reversals, repetitions, and variations in duration and displacement produced on 977 signs by four native LSFB signers. We also assign a certain degree of prominence to every sign depending on the number of cues employed by a participant. Data are analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics (Chi-squared test, Mann-Whitney U test, or Kruskal-Wallis test). The results show that contrast has its own prosodic marking at the manual level in LSFB and that contrastive signs are more prominent than non-contrastive ones. The prevailing cues used to encode contrast are variations in displacement or relative duration, and combinations of relative duration and displacement. The interactions between prosody, information structure, and articulatory constraints are discussed to explain the different patterns highlighted in the data sample.

Population Dynamics of Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephretidae) on Mangifera indica (L.) (Anacardiaceae) and Correlation with Weather Parameters

The population dynamics of fruit fly Bactrocera zonata Saunders (Diptera: Tephritidae) was carried out by installing "Nauroji-Stonehouse Fruit Fly Trap" in the mango orchard of organic farm, Navsari Agricultural University, Navsari, Gujarat, India during the period 2021-22. The population of B. zonata prevailed throughout the year in mango orchard with its peak activity from 14th SMW to 31st SMW which coincided with the fruiting and harvesting period of fruits. The population was maximum in 27th SMW and minimum during second SMW. The population decreased from August to January. There was a significant positive correlation of population of B. zonata with maximum temperature (r=0.33), minimum temperature (r=0.83), average temperature (r=0.77), evening relative humidity (r=0.50), average relative humidity (r=0.41), rainy days (r=0.38), rainfall (r=0.37) and wind velocity (0.66). However, there was a nonsignificant correlation of population of B. zonata with morning relative humidity and duration of bright sunshine hours.

Relative sea‐level control on the building of two distinct shelf‐margin clinothems on the late‐Quaternary Pearl River margin: Insights from numerical stratigraphic forward modelling

AbstractAs one of the most important forcing factors, relative sea‐level changes exert a major influence on the building of shelf‐margin clinothems. However, it is still not well understood how these changes control the growth of shelf edges and the condition of sediments transporting into deep water, especially over the individual‐clinothem scale of several 100 ky. On the late‐Quaternary Pearl River margin, there are two distinct shelf‐margin clinothems: SQ3 and SQ4. They have different shelf‐edge trajectories (slight rising vs. steep rising) and different styles of deep‐water deposition (fan lobes consisting mainly of MTDs vs. fan lobes consisting mainly of turbidites). This work takes those SQ3 and SQ4 as study objects and runs a total of 136 experiments from the Dionisos stratigraphic forward model to investigate how relative sea‐level changes control the trajectories of shelf edges and the volumes of MTDs in deep water over the individual‐clinothem scale. Our quantitative results suggest that under the geological background of high sediment supply on the late‐Quaternary Pearl River margin, the duration of highstand systems tracts (HST) relative to lowstand systems tracts (LST) or forced regressive systems tracts (FST) has a significant influence on the building of individual shelf‐margin clinothems. If the relative duration of HST is either very short or very long, slight‐rising shelf‐edge trajectories and large‐volume MTDs would be formed, whereas if the relative duration of HST is comparable with LST or FST, steep‐rising shelf‐edge trajectories and limited MTDs would be formed. Through the constrains of the model set to the real geological condition of the SQ3 and SQ4 clinothems, it is found that SQ3 was caused by the quite long relative duration of HST, which made highstand deltaic systems advance over the pre‐existing shelf‐slope break, leading to significant accretion and instability of the shelf edge and thus, giving rise to the formation of slight‐rising shelf‐edge trajectories and fan lobes with high MTDs contents. SQ4, however, formed as a result of the comparable durations of HST, LST, and FST, which made highstand deltaic systems advance to but not beyond the previous shelf‐slope break allowing the subsequent FST to be directly perched on the clinoform slope. Such building processes did not drive pronounced accretion and instability of the shelf edge and thus, caused the formation of steep‐rising shelf‐edge trajectories and fan lobes with low MTDs contents.

A perceptual glitch in serial perception generates temporal distortions

Precisely estimating event timing is essential for survival, yet temporal distortions are ubiquitous in our daily sensory experience. Here, we tested whether the relative position, duration, and distance in time of two sequentially-organized events—standard S, with constant duration, and comparison C, with duration varying trial-by-trial—are causal factors in generating temporal distortions. We found that temporal distortions emerge when the first event is shorter than the second event. Importantly, a significant interaction suggests that a longer inter-stimulus interval (ISI) helps to counteract such serial distortion effect only when the constant S is in the first position, but not if the unpredictable C is in the first position. These results imply the existence of a perceptual bias in perceiving ordered event durations, mechanistically contributing to distortion in time perception. We simulated our behavioral results with a Bayesian model and replicated the finding that participants disproportionately expand first-position dynamic (unpredictable) short events. Our results clarify the mechanisms generating time distortions by identifying a hitherto unknown duration-dependent encoding inefficiency in human serial temporal perception, something akin to a strong prior that can be overridden for highly predictable sensory events but unfolds for unpredictable ones.

Magnetic connectivity and solar energetic proton event intensity profiles at deka-MeV energy

We present an analysis of the time-intensity profiles of 25 solar energetic proton events at 18.2 MeV, modelled by fitting an analytical function form (a modified Weibull function) to the observed intensities. Additionally relying on previous work that characterized the magnetic connectivity between the event-related solar flare and the observer in these events with three angular parameters, we investigate the fit function parameters, the connectivity parameters, and the iron-to-carbon ratio of the events for dependencies and correlations. We find that the fit parameter controlling the basic shape of the profile (parameter a) is not clearly dependent on the connectivity parameters or the Fe/C ratio, suggesting that the profile shapes of neither well and weakly connected nor generally “impulsive” and “gradual” events differ systematically during the early stages of the event at 1 AU. In contrast, the time scaling of the fit function (parameter b) is at least moderately correlated with both the magnetic connectivity parameters and the Fe/C ratio, in that well-connected and iron-rich events are typically shorter in relative duration than weakly connected and nominal-abundance events; intensity rise times display a similar correlation with the connectivity parameters. We interpret the former result as following from the combined effect of various transport processes acting on the particles in interplanetary space, while the latter is essentially consistent with established knowledge regarding the observed dependence of the time-intensity profile shapes of solar energetic particle events on their magnetic connectivity and heavy ion abundances. The desirability of modelling the particle transport effects in detail and extending the analysis to cover higher energies is indicated.

The ecological and epidemiological situation of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in the Republic of Tatarstan for the period of 2017–2021

Of the huge order of parasitoform mites in the circulatory chain of the occurrence of existing pathogens and new pathogens of infections joining them, a significant role belongs to ixodic mites (I. persulcatus Sch., I. ricinus Lin.). These blood-sucking parasites are the main carriers of more than 10 nosological forms of zoonotic infections identified in the Republic of Tatarstan. Of these, a special place in the regional pathology is occupied by Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Despite the relative duration of monitoring of natural focal infections in Tatarstan, the problem of this group of diseases has not disappeared and requires close attention and analysis of the current epidemiological and epizootological state. Based on our own research and stock materials of sanitary and epidemiological services, the ranking of enzootic territories representing a certain degree of risk of infection of the population in the Republic of Tatarstan by tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in the context of administrative territories was carried out. In the region, for the period of 20172021, there was a decrease in the intensity of infection of the tick-borne encephalitis population (5 cases in 5 years). At the same time, a high degree of risk of infection of the population with Lyme borreliosis was revealed.

Association of income relative deprivation and sleep duration in China.

In recent years, the rapid development of China's economy has brought about a serious polarization between rich and poor, which makes people have to bear the impact of social changes on their physical and mental health while enjoying the benefits of social development. It is difficult to maintain normal sleep duration (7-9 h), which has gradually become a social phenomenon. Based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2018), this study explored the relationship between relative income deprivation and sleep duration at the micro-level. This paper empirically tests that the probability of normal sleep duration (7-9 h) decreases by 22.8% for each unit of income relative deprivation. This conclusion is significant at 0.05 level. On this basis, the instrumental variable method is used to overcome the endogenous problem, and a more accurate conclusion is obtained. After the robustness test and heterogeneity analysis of the model, a mediation model is constructed through Mplus: relative income deprivation - social trust - sleep duration. Social trust is considered as a mediation variable. This study believes that in Chinese society, the relative deprivation of individual income will affect their sleep duration by changing their social trust. Therefore, increasing the income of low-income groups, narrowing the gap between rich and poor, alleviating social conflicts, and promoting interpersonal trust are important means to ensure that social members can have normal sleep duration.

Effects of water restriction and dirt on grooming behavior in neotropical rodents (Trinomys setosus and T. yonenagae) (Echimyidae)

Grooming in rodents presents an evolutionarily conserved behavioral pattern that may cause water loss since saliva is deposited during washing onto large body surfaces. Trinomys yonenagae and Trinomys setosus are sister species of spiny rats occurring in Brazil, the former inhabiting a paleodesert of fixed dunes in the Caatinga, the latter being found in mesic environments of the Atlantic Forest. Consequently, it is expected that both species evolved under different selective pressures related to water balance, with T. yonenagae presenting mechanisms for dealing with water deprivation not found in T. setosus. Reduction of self-cleaning expression seems to offer a possible way to save water, as previously suggested by studies of the sand-dwelling spiny rat. Therefore, we propose to investigate grooming under four conditions: 'control' (C), a regimen of 'water restriction' (WR), of 'dirt' (D), and the combination of both conflicting stimuli (WR + D), in T. setosus, T. yonenagae, and Rattus norvegicus to compare the behavioral responses of these species. The main differences are observed in the forest dweller: T. setosus expresses a low relative duration of face washing under C, whose value is intermediate between the ones found in the two other species. WR treatment does not alter this pattern, however, the addition of dirt (D, WR + D) significantly increases the relative duration of washing in relation to C. Locomotor activity is decreased both in T. setosus and Wistar rats when they are under WR, a situation that could jeopardize antipredatory performance. T. yonenagae, the sand dweller, maintains a significantly lower expression of washing under C, as previously suggested, and under WR, D and WR + D. In addition, differently from the other two species the sand dweller maintains a normal activity level during all treatments. This study suggests differences in grooming as a strategy alluding to water balance by the two spiny rats inhabiting different ecosystems. A significantly clear pattern that saves water is observed in T. yonenagae, which probably has contributed to his evolution in one of the hottest semiarid areas of the world.

Projected changes in mild weather frequency over China under a warmer climate

Previous studies have largely focussed on changes in mean climate state and climate extremes under a warmer climate, and little is known about changes in mild weather, which is a positive and pleasant condition and is highly related to human outdoor activities. Although changes in observed mild weather frequency over China, and their drivers, have been revealed, the understanding of how mild weather evolves with projected warming is still limited. Here, we examine future changes in mild weather frequency over China based on comprehensive thermal comfort indices, and dynamically downscaled climate projections produced by the Regional Climate Model version 4 within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment—Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations. We demonstrate that changes in mild weather frequency in a warmer future exhibit remarkable regional discrepancy. In particular, densely populated southeastern China will experience a robust decrease in mild weather relative to the current level, although a general increasing trend is observed in this area over recent decades. On a seasonal scale, the decrease in mild weather in summer overwhelms the increase in spring and autumn, and this is more prominent in warmer regions. Regarding the drivers, it is suggested that changes in mild weather frequency are dominated by elevated temperatures, with little contribution from relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration.

Characterization of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil in a coal mining area, East China: Spatial distribution, sources, and carcinogenic risk assessment

The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution process in mining areas, particularly coal mining areas, has accelerated because of coal chemical production and gangue accumulation. In this study, PHAs concentrations in surface soil was determined via gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The composition, spatial distribution and sources of PAHs were analyzed, and their potential carcinogenic risks were evaluated.Results showed a wide PAH concentration range (218–1548 ng g−1). The high molecular weight proportion in contaminated areas was significantly higher than in uncontaminated areas. Clear differences in PAH distribution were detected in contaminated areas, with higher concentrations in the soils near an industrial park and coal gangue piles. The results of positive matrix factorization (PMF) in contaminated area revealed that coking, oil and biomass combustion, and vehicle emissions and coal combustion, contributed 31%, 26%, 24%, and 19%, respectively, to the detected PAHs. In contrast with the 10% contribution rate of the coking source in uncontaminated areas. The Monte Carlo method was used to assess the cancer risk to residents in the study areas. The carcinogenic health risk values for adults in the contaminated areas was higher than the safety standard (2.92 × 10−6) prescribed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency at 95% confidence level. Sensitivity analysis showed that the relative exposure duration (ED) and soil surface area of skin exposure were the most significant parameters for adults, and ED and body weight for children. The cancer risk for both adults and children in contaminated areas was five times than that in uncontaminated areas.

Electronic cigarettes (vapes) are an old threat to health in a new guise

Electronic nicotine dosing systems, commonly known as electronic cigarettes or vapes, have quickly become the most common tobacco products used by teenagers and young people, largely due to the marketing and advertising of the companies that produce them. The appearance of nicotine-free vapes is a new round in the production of electronic cigarettes. Due to the widespread opinion about the harmlessness of such vapes, they are increasingly being used by children and adolescents. The review describes the composition of vaping aerosols, provides data from scientific research on their impact on human health. The danger of smoking both nicotine and nicotine-free vapes is shown. However, given the relative short duration of the use of electronic cigarettes, there are many both purely medical and legal questions. All these issues require further research, which continues all over the world. The authors recommend being wary of this habit and the newfangled hobby of teenagers and young people, applying knowledge about the dangers of vaping in everyday practice, which will indirectly help children and adolescents avoid the path of nicotine addiction, protecting the health of the younger generation.

Comparing three types of data-driven models for monthly evapotranspiration prediction under heterogeneous climatic conditions

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important hydro-climatological components which directly affects agricultural productions. Therefore, its forecasting is critical for water managers and irrigation planners. In this study, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model has been hybridized by differential evolution (DE) optimization algorithm as a novel approach to forecast monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET0). Furthermore, this model has been compared with the classic stochastic time series model. For this, the ET0 rates were calculated on a monthly scale during 1995–2018, based on FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation and meteorological data including minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, mean air temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum relative humidity & sunshine duration. The investigation was performed on 6 stations in different climates of Iran, including Bandar Anzali & Ramsar (per-humid), Gharakhil (sub-humid), Shiraz (semi-arid), Ahwaz (arid), and Yazd (extra-arid). The models’ performances were evaluated by the criteria percent bias (PB), root mean squared error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and Nash-Sutcliff (NS) coefficient. Surveys confirm the high capability of the hybrid ANFIS-DE model in monthly ET0 forecasting; so that the DE algorithm was able to improve the accuracy of ANFIS, by 16% on average. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) was the most suitable pattern among the time series stochastic models and superior to its competitors, ANFIS and ANFIS-DE. Consequently, the SARIMA was suggested more appropriate for monthly ET0 forecasting in all the climates, due to its simplicity and parsimony. Comparison between the different climates confirmed that the climate type significantly affects the forecasting accuracies: it’s revealed that all the models work better in extra-arid, arid and semi-arid climates, than the humid and per-humid areas.

Multilayer perceptron neural network based models for prediction of the rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration for sub-humid climate of Dapoli, Ratnagiri District, India

Rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) are two important climatic parameters pertaining to agriculture production. Rainfall displays variability whereas reference crop evapotranspiration is nonlinear dynamic and complex phenomena. Reference crop evapotranspiration is an important component in calculation of crop water requirements, climatological and hydrological studies. In the present study, eight independent models are developed by using widely employed artificial intelligence (AI) formalism, namely, multilayer perceptron-artificial neural network (MLP-ANN). The proposed models predict two important weather parameters, viz. rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) using meteorological data of 34 calendar years (1983–2016) at Dapoli, District Ratnagiri, Maharashtra, India. The input space of the models consists of six climatic variables, namely, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum relative humidity (RHmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), wind speed (WS), and sunshine duration (SSD). The high correlation coefficient (CC) values (0.900 to 0.957), and low root mean square error (RMSE) values (0.543 to 22.057) for both training along with test data set indicate very good prediction accuracy and generalization performance of the proposed models. Significant features of this study are (i) it is first instance where in MLP-ANN based models are developed for the rainfall and ETo prediction for meteorological data at Dapoli, Dist. Ratnagiri, Maharashtra, India. (ii) MLP-ANN modeling formalism is found to be an efficient tool for ETo prediction, and the developed models can be gainfully utilized for the further prediction of similar weather parameters in future.