Relative Certainty Research Articles

Epidermolysis bullosa acquisita: concise review and practical considerations

Introduction Epidermolysis bullosa acquisita (EBA) is a cutaneous subepi-dermal autoimmune blistering disorder (CSEAIBD) that resultsfrom the effects of IgG autoantibodies directed against the145-kDa noncollagenous amino-terminal (NC-1) domain ofcollagen VII, a major component of anchoring fibrils (Fig. 1).

A Proactive Approach to the Translation of Bible Stories for Children

This paper presents cognitive poetics as an agent in overcoming difficulties in translating bible stories for young children in the multi-lingual and multi-cultural South African environment. The translated picture book texts typically involve the integration of words with pictures. For the purposes of this article, the Genesis 28 narrative of Jacob’s dream in the Hebrew source text is compared in various South African translations. Religious literature was chosen as subject matter because of the relative certainty of comparative translations in most of the eleven official languages of South Africa, but the present article is limited mainly to English and Afrikaans translations. The analysis is done within the fairly new framework of cognitive poetics, which combines psychological and cognitive linguistic approaches to the study of literature. The focus is on the contribution of cognitive linguistics to the translation of children’s literature, in the spirit of proactive translatology.

The New Waste Directive – Trying to Do it All... An Early Assessment

At the heart of ongoing debate over Community waste policy (and thus its regulatory form) is an unclear message about its goals, which include both ‘preventing’ and ‘regulating’ waste and, after a new Directive, maintaining high environmental standards for the use of resources generally. This article asks whether the new Directive is likely to resolve the tension that arises in determining which of these goals takes priority, or whether it perpetuates it. It answers this question by analysing the changes introduced by the 2008 Waste Directive and by examining its goals and the legal issues that arise from the Directive's efforts to clarify, simplify and reorient the provisions of previous Waste Directives. The article concludes that the new Waste Directive is broadly and overly ambitious, at the expense of clarity concerning its goals and certainty in relation to its regulatory provisions. In short, there is a lot to digest in legally understanding and appraising the new Directive.

Classifying households for water demand forecasting using physical property characteristics

Changes in population distribution across Europe are driving the construction of substantial numbers of new houses, creating a need to forecast water demand for new housing developments. The most certain information available on new households during planning are the physical characteristics of the properties themselves. This paper sets out to establish how to classify properties in terms of their physical characteristics for the purpose of forecasting water demand. Analysis of household water demand under a univariate classification of property type showed significant differences for properties of different size (number of bedrooms), architectural type (e.g. flats vs. terraced) and garden presence but not for age or for garden aspect. Analysis of household water demand under a multivariate classification of property type showed fewer significant differences between property types. The results of the study were compared to studies and found to fit qualitatively. However, quantitative differences were noted indicating geographical and sampling variation which requires further investigation. In addition, further research is required to determine the relative certainty of forecasts derived from physical vs. socio-economic or demographic characteristics.

The changing tax environment for the UK hedge fund sector

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to summarize the main conditions that a UK investment manager has to meet in order to benefit from a UK tax exemption known as the Investment Manager Exemption (IME) and comment on the key developments introduced in the revised Statement of Practice.Design/methodology/approachProvides background explaining legislation that defines the IME and its Qualifying Conditions and then goes on to explain the impact of the revised Statement of PracticeFindingsThe IME is an exemption for non‐residents trading in certain investments in the UK where that trade is carried on through an investment manager. The IME was introduced in order to promote investment activities in the UK by providing some degree of certainty on the tax treatment of UK managers who manage offshore trading funds. The original Statement of Practice 01/2001 (SP 01/01) was issued by HMRC to provide guidance on the application of the legislation and, more specifically, on how the conditions in relation to the IME are satisfied. The policy aims of the revised Statement of Practice are to improve the IME and also to meet new developments in the investment management industry, thus providing more certainty in relation to the scope and application of the rules.Practical implicationsIt is critical that processes are in place to demonstrate satisfaction of the Qualifying Conditions for the tax exemption; and in particular, contemporaneous and detailed transfer pricing documentation needs to be in place for all but the simplest of structures.Originality/valuePractical guidance from a tax partner of a leading accounting firm.

Energy Planning in the United States and Europe: A Portfolio-Based Approach

Traditional energy planning in Europe and the United States focuses on finding the least-cost generating alternative. This approach worked sufficiently well in a technological era marked by relative cost certainty, low rates of technological progress, technologically homogenous generating alternatives, and stable energy prices. However, today's electricity planner faces a diverse range of resource options and a dynamic, complex, and uncertain future. Attempting to identify least-cost alternatives in this dynamic and uncertain environment is virtually impossible. As a result, more appropriate techniques are required to find strategies that remain economical under a variety of uncertain future outcomes.Given the uncertain environment, it makes sense to shift electricity planning from its current emphasis on identifying the least-cost technologies to the evaluation of alternative electricity generating portfolios and strategies. The techniques for doing this are rooted in modern finance theory - in particular mean-variance portfolio theory. The mean-variance portfolio analysis proposed in this report exemplifies how portfolio costs and risks can be examined and incorporated into policy decisions about future generating resources.This paper applies portfolio-theory optimization concepts from the field of finance to produce an expository evaluation of the multiple regions in the United States and Europe. Although the results are expository, they help show how today's energy planners can assess the potential changes to a portfolio's risks and costs that result from adding renewable resources (such as wind, hydro, and biomass) that have their own individual risk and cost profiles. The resulting risks and costs of alternative combinations of assets will be quantified, and this allows those portfolios that provide the best combinations of costs and risks to be identified as efficient frontier. Conversely, for any given level of cost, there is an associated minimum-risk portfolio. Portfolio analysis allows for the consideration of risk preferences when choosing among portfolios, as well as for the examination of the trade-offs among various risks and costs.

The Impact of Internet Technologies on Primary and Secondary Romantic Relationship Development

This study examined the impact that changes in Internet-based technologies have on romantic relationships developed exclusively online. Thirty-six participants completed the 44-item Online Relationships Questionnaire. Participants were then divided into three categories based on self-reported media preference: asynchronous text, synchronous text, and rich media. No significant differences existed on measures of relational confidence or intimacy based solely on media selection. Participants utilizing the Internet to maintain a secondary romantic relationship reported higher levels of relational certainty and greater expectations of future interaction with their online partner than participants involved exclusively in online relationships (i.e., the online relationship was the participant's only romantic relationship).

Modulation of pain ratings by expectation and uncertainty: Behavioral characteristics and anticipatory neural correlates

Expectations about the magnitude of impending pain exert a substantial effect on subsequent perception. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie the predictive processes that modulate pain are poorly understood. In a combined behavioral and high-density electrophysiological study we measured anticipatory neural responses to heat stimuli to determine how predictions of pain intensity, and certainty about those predictions, modulate brain activity and subjective pain ratings. Prior to receiving randomized laser heat stimuli at different intensities (low, medium or high) subjects ( n = 15) viewed cues that either accurately informed them of forthcoming intensity (certain expectation) or not (uncertain expectation). Pain ratings were biased towards prior expectations of either high or low intensity. Anticipatory neural responses increased with expectations of painful vs. non-painful heat intensity, suggesting the presence of neural responses that represent predicted heat stimulus intensity. These anticipatory responses also correlated with the amplitude of the Laser-Evoked Potential (LEP) response to painful stimuli when the intensity was predictable. Source analysis (LORETA) revealed that uncertainty about expected heat intensity involves an anticipatory cortical network commonly associated with attention (left dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior cingulate and bilateral inferior parietal cortices). Relative certainty, however, involves cortical areas previously associated with semantic and prospective memory (left inferior frontal and inferior temporal cortex, and right anterior prefrontal cortex). This suggests that biasing of pain reports and LEPs by expectation involves temporally precise activity in specific cortical networks.

Enhanced Recognition, Treatment, and Prognosis of Tubulointerstitial Nephritis and Uveitis Syndrome

Tubulointerstitial nephritis and uveitis syndrome (TINU) is a specific form of uveitis that is unfamiliar to most ophthalmologists. Thus, it is frequently overlooked in differential diagnosis. We hypothesized that recognition of subsets of uveitis can facilitate the diagnosis of rare entities such as TINU. Retrospective case series. One thousand nine hundred eighty-five patients with uveitis. We performed a computerized database analysis of patients evaluated for uveitis at the Casey Eye Institute from September 1985 until May 2005. The database includes details about ocular inflammation, including specific diagnosis, anatomic location, laterality, continuity, onset, complications, HLA-B27 status, and relative diagnostic certainty. Additionally, we reviewed all charts of patients diagnosed with TINU or with a presentation of uveitis that was typical of TINU (i.e., bilateral sudden-onset anterior uveitis). Prevalence of TINU in identifiable subsets of patients with uveitis, visual acuity (VA), and renal function. Individuals with TINU (n = 33) represented 1.7% of all patients with uveitis. However, TINU was diagnosed in 32 of the 316 patients (10%) presenting with bilateral sudden-onset anterior uveitis and in 20 of 62 of these patients (32%) who were younger than 20 years. Creatinine levels were more likely to be elevated in patients older than 40. Most patients maintained excellent VA and did not develop clinically significant renal impairment. Tubulointerstitial nephritis and uveitis syndrome is a common cause of uveitis among patients who present with bilateral sudden-onset anterior uveitis. The size of this series clarifies the understanding of the relationship between renal and ocular disease; facilitates recognition of the syndrome; and adds to the knowledge on prognosis, complications, and role of antecedent medications.

Healing of Radiologic Damage in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Until recently the possibility of healing of erosive changes in RA has been neglected. When evaluating the radiographic course within clinical studies, a reduction of the radiographic score indicating improvement was not allowed since repair of erosions was considered to be impossible. During the last 3 decades several case reports and case series have been published demonstrating convincingly that healing of erosions of RA patients really occurs. In addition, a subcommittee on healing of the OMERACT imaging committee undertook to confirm the existence of repair by performing several studies: different experts had to evaluate erosions on radiographs of the same patients taken at two different time points demonstrating deterioration or improvement. Blinded to the sequence of the films they agreed which film was better or worse and which erosion was greater or smaller. Since 50% of the films showing improvement were taken at the second time point, that study confirmed that healing really exists. Owing to several special features healing could be diagnosed without knowing the sequence of the films in one study, not convincingly so in another study. Among different features indicating healing on radiographs the following can be distinguished with relative certainty: “re-cortication”, meaning the re-appearance of a cortical plate that had been destroyed; “filling-in”, meaning filling of an erosion with new bone; “restoration”, meaning complete normalisation of the shape of the joint and the trabecular structure of the subchondral bone. The best agreement between observers concerns erosion size. Radiographic evaluation blinded to the sequence of the films in trials with biologics resulted in negative scores exceeding the measurement error of the scoring method in a certain percentage of patients, again supporting the existence of healing. As healing only occurs in an individual joint after the inflammatory process has been quiet in that joint for several months, healing could be utilized as an outcome measure in addition to the slowing or arrest of progression. This article gives an overview over the history and present knowledge of radiographic signs of erosion healing. Keywords: Rheumatoid arthritis, healing of erosions, repair of damage, conventional radiography

The Bridge, the Trolls and a Number of Crossings: a foray into the ‘Third space’

This paper gives an account of a collaborative teaching project undertaken by the authors in Mostar, Bosnia-Herzegovina. From our respective interests in cross-cultural theatre we set out to explore how effectively we could work with each other and with participants from different cultures. One of the relative certainties of working in a cross-cultural context is that initial planning in a project will have to give way to new circumstances. This is what we found in Mostar. We report on the project itself and on the impact it had on our conceptualisations of the cross-cultural space.

Security Interests in Patents and Patent Applications?

There is a question mark in the title of this article because more questions than answers have been encountered in researching the topic. The relative certainty with which owners of furniture, equipment, accounts and most other personal property can obtain credit by granting a security in their property rapidly dissipates when the property in question is intellectual property. Owners of patents and other intellectual property find barriers to obtaining secured credit that are not faced by other property owners because there is a historical gap between the federal law protecting rights of intellectual property owners and state laws addressing secured transactions. The increasing importance of intellectual property to the economy of the United States (patent filings having increased by seventy percent since 19962 raises the visibility of this gap and urges consideration of changes in law. This would permit owners of intellectual property access to the same financing opportunities that are available to owners of other personal property. There seems to be no public policy that justifies the current situation.

W. P.: The Case for William Patten's Contribution to Holinshed's Chronicles (1587)

THE collaborative nature of the 1587 edition of Holinshed's Chronicles is well known, and we can identify with relative certainty the portions of the narrative supplied by Holinshed himself, William Harrison, Richard Stanyhurst, John Hooker, alias Vowell, Abraham Fleming, Francis Boteville, otherwise known as Francis Thynne, and John Stow. However, nothing at all is known about the contributor whose additions were signed ‘W. P.’ in the margins of the 1587 text, and which begin in the narrative of the reign of Henry V. Ascertaining the identity of W. P. would be important not only for the history of English historiography, but perhaps even more so for the critical corpus on Shakespeare's English history plays, because W. P.'s revised portrait of Joan of Arc is in fact the one that Shakespeare adopted for 1 Henry VI rather than Holinshed's original version from the 1577 Chronicles. W. P.'s interpolations into the chronicle text reveal an author who is an able stylist, a historian by vocation, one who is able to read and compile data out of French sources, and perhaps most importantly, a staunch English Protestant nationalist. The list of authors and textual sources supplied by the editor at the start of the first volume of the 1587 Chronicles does not answer the question of W. P.'s identity because the initials do not match any of the known contributors to the text. To be sure, it is entirely possible that W. P. was a contributor who chose to remain anonymous or did not have his name added to the list by the editors. But, if the list is indeed accurate and reliable, and we take it as the starting point in the search for the author's identity, there are only two likely candidates whose names match the initials W. P.: ‘William Patten of the expedition into Scotland 1574’ and ‘William Proctor of Wiats rebellion’ (I, A3v).1 A number of factors and coincidences suggest that W. P. could be William Patten. 1 Raphael Holinshed, The Chronicles of England, Scotland and Ireland (London, 1587).

A Discussion of Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

This paper aims at a discussion of the structure of the SLAM problem. The analysis is not strictly formal but based both on informal studies and mathematical derivation. The first part highlights the structure of uncertainty of an estimated map with the key result being "Certainty of Relations despite Uncertainty of Positions". A formal proof for approximate sparsity of so-called information matrices occurring in SLAM is sketched. It supports the above mentioned characterization and provides a foundation for algorithms based on sparse information matrices. Further, issues of nonlinearity and the duality between information and covariance matrices are discussed and related to common methods for solving SLAM. Finally, three requirements concerning map quality, storage space and computation time an ideal SLAM solution should have are proposed. The current state of the art is discussed with respect to these requirements including a formal specification of the term "map quality".

Germany's Future Political Challenges: Imagine that The New Yorker Profiled the German Chancellor in 2015

What follows is a fictitious scenario, a "thought experiment," meant to project a particular future for Germany if certain assumptions hold. Scenarios are hypotheses that rest on a set of assumptions and one or two "wild cards." They can reveal forces of change that might be otherwise hidden, discard those that are not plausible, and describe the future of trends that are relatively certain. Indeed, scenarios create a particular future in the same way that counterfactual methods create a different past. Counterfactual methods predict how events would have unfolded had a few elements of the story been changed, with a focus on varying conditions that seem important and that can be manipulated. For instance, to explore the effects of military factors on the likelihood of war, one might ask: "how would pre 1914 diplomacy have evolved if the leaders of Europe had not believed that conquest was easy?" Or to explore the importance of broad social and political factors in causing Nazi aggression: "How might the 1930s have unfolded had Hitler died in 1932?" The greater the impact of the posited changes, the more important the actual factors that were manipulated. Assuming that the structure of explanation and prediction are the same, scenario writing pursues a similar method. But, instead of seeking alternative explanations for the past, scenarios project relative certainties and then manipulate the important but uncertain factors, to create a plausible story about the future.

Decision Analysis in Orthopaedics

Orthopaedic surgeons are faced with an ever-growing amount of clinical information from which they are required to make treatment decisions. Many of these decisions can be approached with relative certainty. However, there are many situations where the optimal decision is less clear. These treatment decisions will have competing risks, benefits, or costs. Decision analysis is one method to critically evaluate alternative treatment options with multiple potential outcomes. This method of decision making can be extremely valuable because of the growing number of treatment alternatives, and to the ever-increasing complexity of medical scenarios.

Unlawful Relations and Verbal Inflation

here are two rather basic questions to ask about Tobler's first law of geography. Is it a law? Is it true? These might at first appear to be one question expressed in two ways, but they are not. When I ask if Tobler's law is, indeed, a law, I am asking whether it, as a statement, has the form and character of those statements we normally recognize as laws. Lacking this form, Tobler's law cannot be a law, even if its propositions are true. A statement that takes the semantic form of a law is not, by this fact alone, entitled to the status of law, however. We must also, of course, be justified in believing that the generalizations of the law are true. I will argue that the answer to both of these basic questions is no. Before embarking on the argument I would like to make it clear that I am not criticizing Waldo Tobler, or even the statement published in 1970. Taken in context, with allowances made for a degree of irony to which all of us are at times tempted, the statement we now know as Tobler's Law of is unexceptionable. Lifted from that context, stripped of irony, and enshrined as a motto of the discipline, the statement becomes something altogether different. It becomes a majestic statement to which I, at least, take rather strong exception. I think we can say with relative certainty that Tobler's statement would never have enjoyed this fame, or suffered this scrutiny, if he hadn't used the word law. This is what the statement says in its excised, unironical, majestic form. The First Law of Geography is that is related to everything else, but near are more related than distant things (Tobler 1970). Had Tobler written, for instance, that geographers assume that everything is related to everything else, and believe that, as a rule, near are more related than distant things, I am sure I would not be writing this article today. No, the beacon that draws us to this statement is the word law.

A Jewish Jesus in the university classroom: from confusion to clarity

The purpose of this article is to bring the fruit of Jewish study on Jesus over the past 50 years to bear on how Jesus may be presented in Religious Studies at the undergraduate level. It will be observed that the historical Jesus is widely misunderstood and that this confusion arises from two significant sources. The first of these is that studies of Jesus tend to be confined to the discipline of Christian Theology (thus Jewish perspectives may offer a necessary corrective). The second is that the thematic approach to religions, endemic to many secondary school Religious Education (RE) syllabi, may result in the undergraduate student having paid insufficient attention to questions of historical context. The article concludes with a proposal of some ‘relative certainties’ that can be presented to students about Jesus.

Teachers’ workplace and professional certainty

The study focuses on teachers’ perceived certainty, a concept which is understood as being made up of didactic, practical and relational certainty, and its relationship with teacher collaboration, role ambiguity and job satisfaction. Analyses draw on data from 1153 Norwegian elementary and junior high school teachers. Results indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the two subgroups of teachers concerning collaboration and job satisfaction. Furthermore, interesting differences regarding relations between collaboration and teacher certainty are found. Teachers in this study also report most collaboration on planning lessons, but little collaboration on activities one would expect to enhance self-awareness and reflection. A structural equation model involving relationships between all variables is tested and results reveal good fit indices.

Responses to changes in relational uncertainty within dating relationships: Emotions and communication strategies

Guided by the appraisal theory of emotion, this paper examines how various emotions shape communication strategies within romantic relationships. Events that changed people's relational uncertainty levels provide the context for the investigation. Participants in dating relationships (N = 141) described their experience of relational certainty and uncertainty increasing events. Relational certainty increases coincided with relatively high levels of happiness, and relational uncertainty increases corresponded with heightened degrees of anger and sadness. Integrative behaviors were a frequently reported response to both kinds of events. Consistent with appraisal theory, specific emotions were associated with particular strategies; however, some effects were moderated by the type of event. The discussion highlights the utility of appraisal theory for understanding how romantic partners manage fluctuations in relational uncertainty.