Relative Certainty Research Articles

Occupational mobility in Australia: A quantitative approach

The major aim of this paper is to formulate and estimate a model to explain occupational mobility in Australia. The main hypotheses advanced in the development of the theoretical model are that occupational mobility varies with excess demand (or supply) in the aggregate labour market, that segmentation occurs within individual markets for specific occupations, and that net mobility between occupations is responsive to changes in relative occupational wage rates after adjustment for differential risks of unemployment. The empirical results support the hypothesis that net mobility is a function of changes in relative occupational certainty equivalent wage rates. Further, the statistical properties of the estimates suggest that the structural approach can be highly successful in comparison to previous reduced-form studies in this area.

A Relative Certainty: A Modern Liberal's View of Man

Journal of American CultureVolume 5, Issue 4 p. 96-106 A Relative Certainty: A Modern Liberal's View of Man Robert W. Schneider, Robert W. Schneider Professor of History, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb 60115.Search for more papers by this author Robert W. Schneider, Robert W. Schneider Professor of History, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb 60115.Search for more papers by this author First published: Winter 1982 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-734X.1982.0504_96.xAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Volume5, Issue4Winter 1982Pages 96-106 RelatedInformation

Research and Extension Issues in Production Economics

The role of the economist in agriculture has increased in significance in the 1970s and 80s. A review of the recent history of agriculture begins with the period of stability and relative certainty of agricultural input and product prices in the 1950s. But by the 1970s, the economic impacts of the oil crisis, inflation, and orientation to free market prices of agricultural products necessitated a transition in the role and importance of the agricultural economist. Economists became vital to farmers who had to make economic decisions on appropriate cropping patterns, when and how to market products, and how to invest wisely.

Adhering to Medical Advice: A Review

have brought us drugs with demonstrated efficacy in the management of many diseases. Yet even in areas in which we have relative certainty that we can prevent or manage various disorders, people often do not follow the recommended course of action. It is a modest percentage of patients who heed medical advice. Even when it comes to just keeping patients in treatment, that is, to their appearing for scheduled appointments, the failure rate averages 20%50% (Dunbar & Stunkard, 1979). In the area of treatment, 20% -80% of patients make errors in taking their medications; and 25% -60% stop taking their medications well before it is therapeutically desirable to do so (Dunbar & Stunkard, 1979). Life-style modifications fare no better: 20%-80% of patients drop out of weightmanagement programs, and as many as 90% -9 5% of those in such programs fail to achieve a desirable weight (Dunbar & Stunkard, 1979). Efforts to stop smoking also do poorly; indeed, the success rate seems to be somewhat like that for the treatment of alcoholism or heroin addiction. Of people who have embarked on a smoking reduction program, up to 75% have resumed smoking six months after they quit (Best & Block, 1979). Data on

Some Notes on Maryland and Baltimore

The data on the pronunciation of Maryland and Baltimore are derived from the 1216 field records made between 1933 and 1974 for the Linguistic Atlas of the Middle and South Atlantic States (Kurath et al. 1980-). That project extends the investigation of the Eastern Seaboard begun for the Linguistic Atlas of New England (Kurath et al. 1939-43) into 518 communities between the St. Lawrence River valley and northeastern Florida.1 As in New England, the informants represent three distinct cultural levels: 603 are Type I, or users of folk speech; 473 are Type II, or users of common or popular speech; and 140 are Type III, or users of cultured or cultivated speech.2 The responses of each informant were taken down in a finely graded phonetic notation (Kurath et al. 1939, ch. 4). Only ten field records represent transcriptions other than those of Guy S. Lowman, Jr., who made 836 field records in 1933-41, or McDavid, who made 310 field records himself in 1941, 1945-56, and 1964 and transcribed from tapes sixty interviews made by others in 1965 -74. No two fieldworkers hear or transcribe exactly alike, nor do they conduct interviews in the same way.3 Accordingly, the following brief review of the practices of Lowman and McDavid may throw some light on the interpretation of the evidence. Lowman, a student of Daniel Jones, participated in the training sessions for the New England fieldworkers held in conjunction with the 1931 Linguistic Institute. He did the largest share of records in New England and was in the field almost continuously from the beginning of operations for the New England atlas until his death in 1941. McDavid received his training in field methods from Bernard Bloch, who did the second largest share of the New England records and who worked for ten more years with Kurath in editing the records. Both Lowman and McDavid made careful notes on their transcription practices. They routinely indicated their relative certainty about particular transcriptions in individual records, especially near dialect bound-

Séparation et Identification des Bétalaines Synthétisées par les Tissus de Tige de Myrtillocactus geometrizans Cultivés «in vitro»

Summary Sephadex gel column chromatography enabled us to separate betalains present in stem tissue cultures as well as in fruits of Myrtillocactus geometrizans. The identification of the isolated fractions was attempted by means of paper chromatography, electrophoresis, spectrum analysis and Sephadex gel chromatography. Three pigments — one betaxanthin and two betacyanins -, have been identified in both materials. Indicaxanthin and betanin were characterized with relative certainty. Another betaxanhin was tentatively identified as phyllocactin.

Séparation des pigments bétalaïques par une méthode fondée sur la chromatographie sur gel de Séphadex appliquée à des plantules d' Amarantus caudatus L. var. pendula

A simple method based on Sephadex gel column chromatography and requiring only small quantities of plant material, enabled not only the separation of betacyanins from betaxanthins but also the isolation of several different species of each of these types of pigment. Amarantus caudatus L. var. pendula seedlings, cultivated on 3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine solutions in light conditions, were selected as the experimental material. The identification of the components of the isolated fractions was attempted by means of paper chromatography and electrophoresis. Two betacyanins, amaranthin and betanin, could be characterized with relative certainty. Moreover, two betaxanthins, present in small quantities in the extracts, were tentatively identified as being miraxanthin and vulgaxanthin.

Detection of penumococcal antigens in the sputum in pneumococcal pneumonia.

Forty-seven patients with bacterial pneumonia were grouped by use of clinical criteria according to the relative certainty of a diagnosis of pneumococcal pneumonia. Sputums were tested for pneumococcal antigens by counterimmunoelectrophoresis with polyvalent pneumococcal antiserum. Antigens were detected in the sputum of 29 of 39 patients with evidence of pneumococcal pneumonia, and there was good correlation between the detection of antigens and the degree of certainty of the clinical diagnosis. Antigens persisted briefly in the sputum during therapy with antimicrobial drugs and could be detected during the first 48 hours of therapy in most cases of pneumococcal pneumonia. Pneumococci were isolated from the sputum in only 18 of 39 cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, and sputum cultures did not correlate as well as counterimmunoelectrophoresis with clinical diagnoses. In studies of 27 patients with chronic bronchitis without pneumonia, pneumococci were isolated from sputum in 10 cases, whereas counterimmunoelectrophoresis was positive in 5 cases. Counterimmunoelectrophoresis provides a simple and rapid method for detecting pneumococcal antigens in sputum, and it appears to be more reliable than sputum cultures in establishing a presumptive diagnosis in pneumococcal pneumonia.

Michelangelo's mutilation of the Florence Pietà: a psychoanalytic inquiry.

When psychoanalysts have ventured into art history their reception has often been less than congenial. The differences between the two disciplines have largely revolved around the issue of what are to be considered the relevant evidence and methods for interpreting images. The psychoanalytic method emphasizes the representation of unconscious conflicts, often repressed and dating back to the artist's childhood. We treat such unconscious material as a fundamental determinant of both the form and content of creative images.1 Thus, psychoanalysis provides an approach to the understanding of those distinctive and personal aspects of an image that allow a connoisseur, with relative certainty, to identify the artist who created it, no matter how commonplace the theme: that is, its individual style. Further, in the case of a strange piece of behavior, like the one that we are considering—Michelangelo's mutilation of the late Pietà, now in the Cathedral of Florence—the psychoanalyst tries to probe into the unconscious meaning of the image for the artist in order to understand why the behavior occurred at that time, and not some other time, and in that form rather than another.

Empathy and Pseudo-Empathy: The Affective Judgments of First- and Third-Graders

Eighty male and female first- and third-grader Ss were presented one of two brief videotaped social interaction episodes. Half of the Ss viewed an unambiguous tape in which a target character's affective response was congruent with the situational context in which he operated. The remaining Ss viewed a similar, but ambiguous tape in which the nonverbal affective response of the target character was incongruent with situational demands. Ss' responses were scored on the basis of their judgments of the target character's affective state and facial expression, and the degree of relative certainty with which they made their affective judgments. No differences were predicted or found in any of the empathic responses of first- and third-graders to the unambiguous tape. The two age groups studied did, however, differ significantly in their responses to the ambiguous tape. As anticipated, the first-grade Ss employed a highly centered inference strategy and based their judgments on only one of the available incongruous cues. The older Ss, by contrast, recognized the incongruities present and expressed little confidence in their ability to infer the true affect state of the target character.

Shunt system patency testing by lumbar infusion.

A simple and reliable bedside infusion test is described to evaluate shunt-system patency in adult patients with treated "normal" pressure hydrocephalus. Fifteen consecutive patients with ventriculoperitoneal shunts were tested by a two-part infusion test between 2 days and 32 months after shunt surgery. When we used the criteria presented, shunt patency could be established with certainty, and shunt malfunction could be established with relative certainty. Shunt malfunction was verified surgically.

Person-Job Congruence and Individual Adjustment and Development

This research was conducted at the clerical and hourly employee levels in two large organizations. It investigates the congruence or 'fit' of five personality predispositions with the relative certainty of jobs. The hypothesis tested is that this person-job congruence is related to individual psychological adjustment and development at work, as represented by an individual's 'sense of competence' on the job. The hypothesis is supported and the implications of the findings, especially regarding understanding the meaning of work for an individual, are discussed.

The Histophysiology of the Prolactin Cell in Non-Mammalian Vertebrates

synopsis. With the exception ofthe agnathan fishes, a cell has been identified in all vertebrates in which it has been sought. This review examines the structure of the prolactin-producing pituitary cell in non-mammalian vertebrates, the manner in which it responds to natural and artificial stimuli, and its control by neural and humoral factors. Fundamental similarities and differences are described in an attempt to understand better its method of operation. Given our present state of knowledge, there is, among all the apparent diversity, a similarity in the basic structure and morphological response of this cell in teleosts, amphibi? ans, reptiles, and birds. One can identify and speak with relative certainty about a specific adenohypophysial cell called a prolactin cell. More profound differences may be found at the level of control mechanisms, chemistry ofthe hormone(s), and the nature of receptivity and response of target tissues. It appears that although there are basic similarities in the design ofthe cell, the systems that control its activities may differ and the similar products produced by the cell may be used toward different ends. This review examines the structure of the prolactin-producing pituitary cell in nonmammalian vertebrates, the manner in which it responds to natural and artifically induced stimuli, and its relation to the

Likelihood ratios as a measure of the diagnostic usefulness of excretory urogram information.

The log likelihood ratio (LLR) method of assessing physicians' diagnostic judgments can be used to measure the diagnostic usefulness of radiologic information (urography in this study). The method requires collection of referring pbysicians' diagnosis prior to and after urography and their certainty in relation to receipt of the radiologic information. Physicians in daily practice are able to provide diagnoses and assign a percentage number to their certainty. The LLR method permits measurement of the diagnostic usefulness of both normal and abnormal urogram results. Retrospective chart review does not provide the same LLR results as those obtained from the prospective study.

Risk, Entrepreneurship, and Tenancy

Recent papers by Cheung (1968, 1969) and Rao (1971) have provided insights on how tenure contracts can be shaped by economic forces and are thus not exogenous, as has been assumed in most studies. On the surface, however, their theories appear to be contradictory. This paper will attempt to show that the two theories are compatible. Cheung argues that the tenancy contract selected can be explained in terms of a trade-off between risk and transactions cost. Under a fixed rental system, the entire risk burden falls on the tenant, while under a hired-labor wage contract it falls on the landlord. Sharecropping permits risk sharing and is a compromise between the extremes. Sharecropping, however, has the highest transactions costs and would not be preferred unless risks are high. Thus, Cheung would argue that sharecropping would appear most frequently in areas of greatest uncertainty; otherwise, fixed rentals would be preferred. Rao hypothesizes that sharecropping contracts are common in areas of relative economic certainty with very little scope for decision making, for example, factor substitution, and where entrepreneurial profit is low. Fixed cash rents would thus be common in situations of high uncertainty where the scope for decision making is significant or where the crops are highly profitable. The two views are not contradictory if one differentiates between risks associated with decision making and exogenous or natural risks beyond the control of the farmer. The point can be illustrated by examining the tenancy situation in the Malayan paddy economy. Table 1 shows the types of tenancy contracts that existed in the five states comprising the main paddy areas in Malaya in 1957. Sharecropping is prevalent in only one state, Kelantan, which is on the east coast. In comparison with the other states which are on the west coast, Kelantan has very low yields and risks are much higher due to poor weather conditions (seasonal flooding and monsoons), the absence of government irrigation facilities, and extensive pest damage; thus, production is very erratic and frequently much of the harvest is lost. Such risks and uncertainties, however, are due to environmental conditions beyond the control of the farmer. These conditions coupled with relatively poor soil result in yields 50 percent lower than in the western states and discourage entrepreneurial endeavors. On the west coast, government irrigation facilities, better

The Bridge of Criticism (review)

BOOK REVIEWS 267 If Dr. Larson's work has not chosen to ask or to answer such broader questions, he has, nevertheless, given us a highly useful foundation upon which these might now be posed. PHILLn' R. SLOAN University of Washington The Bridge of Criticism. By Peter Gay. (Harper and Row. Pp. 171) Doubtless, the temptation is great for historians, philosophers, and English teachers to use their learning in support of a foray into nonexpository writing, a novel for instance, or a drama. Peter Gay, who not long ago completed his two-volume study, The Enlightenment, has recently published an imaginative, playful book called The Bridge oJ Criticism. The title belies the contents: The Bridge of Criticism is a dialogue of the dead in which the dramatis personae are Lucian, Erasmus, and Voltaire. In an epigraph to the dialogue (there are actually five related dialogues), we learn that Gibbon suggested to Gay the form and its participants. Gibbon mentioned in his autobiography that "I have often thought of writing a dialogue of the dead in which Lucian, Erasmus, and Voltaire should mutually acknowledge the danger of exposing an old superstition to the contempt of the blind and fanatic multitude." The "superstitions" Gay wishes to reveal consist of the false notions perpetuated by scholars, and accepted by educated readers, of the Enlightenment in general, Voltaire in particular. If "blind and fanatic multitude" seems too strong a characterization of the university populace, the issues themselves remain volatile. As the titles of the dialogues indicate "On Modernity," "On History," "On Optimism," "On Imagination," and "On Existentialism "--the conversations are both intrinsic to Enlightenment study as well as timely for today. But in the best tradition of Enlightenment writing, The Bridge of Criticism intends not merely to inform and instruct, but to delight also, and this it does admirably with its sharp wit and brisk inventiveness. Should we finish the book still disagreeing with Voltaire's spirited defense of his era, our "superstitions" have inevitably been shaken by the book's eloquence and urbanity. In the dialogues, Erasmus falls into the role of prosecutor, Voltaire as defender and subtle attacker, and Lucian appears as the avuncular Ancient, an equitable moderator and just critic. Gay recreates them so well that we do not feel cheated of the acerbic wit and incisiveness we know each of them possessed once. They are a well-matched triumvirate; though of strongly differing ideologies and persuasions, they are also united by the trenchant, satiric portraits they drew of their respective times, and in which they all shared a genuine disgust with folly, superstition, and arrogance. Yet each, of course, stands forth as a particularly definitive spokesman of an epoch. The dialogue of the dead encourages this juxtaposition of brilliant personalities, fosters a juggling of chronology, a gathering together of times as well as protagonists. As the title suggests, Gay's book bridges time, not only their own times of the participants, but in the first and last dialogues they address themselves to our time also, and so link the living with the ostensibly dead. If done well, and I think Gay does it very well--with insight, humor and intelligence--the dialogue of the dead is invariably fascinating, if no longer fashionable. The reader senses it something of a privilege to find these three great critics resuscitated and given the opportunity to comment upon, chastise, and criticize one another. 268 HISTORY OF PHILOSOPHY In the first dialogue, "On Modernity," Voltaire insists on his indentification with the present age: '.'to be modern is to be cut off from the consolations of religion or metaphysics, to be a child--happy or wretched----of science." What the philosophes bequeathed to succeeding ages, and therefore what is forever modern about the Enlightenment, Voltaire claims, is "critical thinking [which] alone prods us to revise, improve, clarify and purify our ideas and our conduct .... [I]t compels man to do without the imaginary certainty offered by priests and closet philosophers, and gives him what is far more precious--the relative but authentic certainty that only reliable knowledge can provide." Arguments such as these do not end with any sort of certainty; Erasmus, unable to attack the...

Determinants of the perception of choice

Two experiments were conducted to investigate possible determinants of perceived choice. The first experiment employed an observer paradigm and the second employed an actor paradigm. The results of both studies provided evidence for the hypotheses that perceived choice will be greater when there is a small difference in attractiveness between outcome alternatives than when there is a large difference and under conditions of low certainty about the attractiveness of each outcome alternative than under conditions of high certainty. Also, the results of both studies provided some evidence for the hypothesis that the effect of the relative difference in attractiveness upon perceived choice will be greater under conditions of low certainty than under conditions of high certainty. The hypothesis that perceived choice will be less when there is no difference in attractiveness between outcome alternatives than when there is a small difference was not supported by the results of the first experiment but was supported by the results of the second experiment. The hypothesis that perceived choice will be greater the more time a person takes to select an action from possible actions was supported by results of the first experiment but not by those of the second experiment. The results for the relative difference and certainty variables were discussed in terms of a theoretical analysis of perceived choice.

Uncertainty, Entrepreneurship, and Sharecropping in India

This study attempts to explain the coexistence of different farm lease arrangements in terms of the varying significance of entrepreneurial functions. In India, crop-sharing arrangements are common in areas of relative economic certainty with very little scope for decision making, for example, for product and factor substitution, and where the entrepreneurial profit is low. Fixed-cash rents are common in situations of high uncertainty where the scope for decision making is significant or where the crops are highly profitable. Efficiency considerations predominate in areas of sharecropping, favoring a smaller farm size, whereas, under high uncertainty, large size is favored for reducing risk.

A field method for the determination of lead in glass used for shielding television receiver components.

A methodology is presented for a rapid field test for determining the lead content in glass used for radiation shielding in television receiver components, diagnostic x-ray fluoroscopic screens and other applications. The method uses a mixture of hydrofluoric acid and sodium iodide to bring into solution a small portion of the glass to be tested. The lead content of the glass is estimated by comparing with standards the depth of color and speed of development of the yellow lead-iodide precipitate. The presence of other elements in the glass show no interference with the test,, The test can be performed in minute;? without harmful effect to the product. A determination can thus be made with relative certainty of the ability of the glass to absorb radiation. Measurements showing the effect of the lead content of glass electronic tube envelopes on radiation emission are also presented.

The Conquest and Early Hebrew Poetry

By P. C. Craigie. Four poetic sources for the Conquest are examined; three are dateable with relative certainty as early poetic Hebrew; the fourth is more ambiguous, but an early date is reasonably probable.