Abstract Although the Neotropics harbour almost half of the world's butterfly species, there are few assessments regarding the potential future suitability of habitats for this important bioindicator in the region. Here, we test if butterfly species restricted to the Amazonia rainforest will be more affected by environmental change than closely related, more widespread species. We compiled 1149 individually checked observation records of three closely related species pairs with distinct distribution patterns (Amazonian‐restricted and widely distributed in the Neotropics). Using MaxEnt species distribution models, we projected the future habitat suitability (2050 and 2100) under low (SSP126) and high (SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and also considering reduced forested cover. Estimated models showed that in the low‐emission scenario, most species will potentially expand their suitable habitats and distributions by 3.7%–11.4% in 2100. Contrastingly, in the high‐emission scenario, most species will potentially lose habitat and distribution ranges by 9.6%–49.7% in 2100, regardless of their original range extent or phylogenetic relatedness. Only one widespread generalist species might benefit from this scenario in 2100, increasing its suitable habitat area by 30%. Both Amazonian range‐restricted and more widely distributed Neotropical butterflies may be equally negatively affected by global change in high‐emission scenarios. The fact that only one generalist species might expand its suitable habitat suggests a butterfly fauna homogenisation in the Neotropics. This prospect requires further testing to consider whether global change will affect not only restricted but generalist species as well.
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