REIT Portfolios Research Articles

Diversifying and hedging REIT portfolios with cryptocurrencies: Evidence from global and regional REIT indices

Hedging the financial risk of portfolios of securitized real estate assets is daunting because of the unique nature of the underlying assets and because no direct market exists to trade on property-related derivatives. In this paper, we conduct a global study of the diversification and risk mitigation benefits of cryptocurrencies for REIT stocks. Specifically, we examine the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and REIT indices obtained from multiple countries and regions of the world. We also explore whether portfolios of REIT stocks that are hedged with Bitcoin futures obtain significant improvement in portfolio risk mitigation and return performance. Furthermore, given that Bitcoin and REIT stocks are prone to large volatility swings, we examine the nature of the tail dependences in the multivariate distributions of our REIT indices universe and Bitcoin using Archimedean copula functions. Lastly, we compare the market risk of Bitcoin-hedged REIT portfolios to the unhedged portfolios of REIT stocks using value-at-risk. We find region-specific benefits from using Bitcoin to hedge REIT exposure. Furthermore, we show that using Bitcoin to dynamically hedged REIT portfolios had minimal impact on the bivariate and multivariate joint distributions of REIT portfolios. We also find evidence of region-specific reductions in the market risk exposure of dynamically hedged REIT portfolios relative to unhedged and naively hedged REIT portfolios. We posit that Bitcoin could improve the mean-variance frontiers of REIT investors in countries with higher market friction and lower global integration.

Ex-ante performance of REIT portfolios

Ex-ante performance of REIT portfolios

Diversification Benefits of European REIT, Equities and Bonds

This study aims to demonstrate the benefits related to the inclusion of European REIT in a portfolio of stocks and bonds traded on European markets. Major studies of the portfolio’s diversification those considered REIT was carried out on the American real estate market. Therefore, this research project aims to extend the work to the European scale by forming a mixed pan‐European REIT portfolio. The database is composed of monthly dividend‐adjusted closing prices, over the past 11 years, from different stock indexes collected during eleven years of different European market indexes. Four hypothetic portfolios were constructed to test our hypothesis. Descriptive statistics and correlations were presented. Therefore, the results have shown that European REIT has reduced the risk of a mixed portfolio even if the risk reduction is very limited. The same is true for the portfolio’s return, which was slightly improved. The study showed that European REIT remains a factor of diversification that should not be overlooked in building an asset portfolio. These findings contribute to the existing portfolio theory arguing that using REITs in portfolio diversification helps investors dilute their risk and improve their returns. Our results also have practical implications. They can be useful to investors and financial analysts in their investment decisions by shedding light on this type of asset.

Trend Following and Momentum Strategies for Global REITs

In this study, we investi- gate whether the risk-Adjusted returns of a global REIT portfolio would be enhanced by adopting a trend following global strategy (which is an abso- lute concept sometimes known as absolute mo- mentum), a momentum-based strategy (which is a relative concept and requires individual country al- locations), or indeed a combination of the two. e examine the results in terms of both a dedicated global REIT exposure, and the impact on a multi- asset portfolio. We find that the main improve- ments arise when the broad index is replaced with one of the four trend following strategies. The port- folios deliver similar returns but volatility is re- duced by up to a quarter to the 8%-9% range, the Sharpe ratios increase by 0.1 to 0.5 with the main benefit being the reduction in the maximum draw- down to under 30% compared to 43% when the broad index was used. We thus find that a com- bined momentum and trend following a global REIT strategy can be beneficial for both a dedicated REIT portfolio and adding REITs to a multi-Asset portfolio.

DOES FAITH HAS IMPACT ON INVESTMENT RETURN: EVIDENCE FROM REITS

This paper investigates whether faith has impact on investment returns. Specifically, we choose the Shariah compliance and REITs investment for the purpose of investigation. Synthetic Shariah compliant portfolios are constructed with various interpretation of compliance. We compare the performance of Shariah compliant portfolios with US Equity REIT portfolio during 1993–2017 by examining the abnormal returns using CAPM and Carhart four-factor model. We find no evidence of underperformance or outperformance of the Shariah compliant investments. This is also true during the financial crisis periods which is confirmed by the sub-sample analysis. Our findings suggest that Shariah compliant REIT investor faces no cost or gain in his investments as a result of his faith.

REIT Financing of Real Estate Development Projects in Nigeria: Why Not?

This study appraised the investment option of REITs directly financing real estate developments within the REIT investment guidelines in Nigeria. The focus is to grow the real estate sector of the emerging Nigeria REIT market, especially where there exists a low stock of real estate assets. Asset allocation strategy of the modern portfolio theory anchored on the Markowitz’s efficient frontier model was adopted taking into consideration the REIT regulations in Nigeria. The study found that Nigeria REIT can adapt real estate financing as an option of investment diversification because of the potential return benefit exhibited with an efficient REIT portfolio of 70% real estate acquisition, 20% construction finance and 10% financial deposit asset allocation strategy, yielding a return of 8%, which was 89% higher than the 4.23% maximum return of 100% asset in real estate alone. The study provides an insight into the developing Nigeria REIT market and recommends a review of REIT law to encourage REIT investment into direct construction financing in other to grow property stock in the emerging real estate markets to a sustainable level.

Can sector-specific REIT strategies outperform a diversified benchmark?

PurposeThe authors in this paper aim to investigate the performance of different portfolios of REITs which specialise by property type compared to the performance of a diversified free-float market capitalisation-weighted benchmark index to determine whether superior risk-adjusted returns can be achieved.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors examine the performance of portfolios constructed using the criteria of equal weight, minimum variance, maximum Sharpe and risk parity rather than free-float market capitalisation. Second, the authors apply an automated trading strategy of trend following to see if this filter will improve risk-adjusted returns.FindingsThe two-step process of forming combinations of REIT sectors with the subsequent addition of a trend following overlay can offer clear benefits relative to a passive benchmark investment.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough three of the four strategies were shown to outperform the benchmark index on a risk-adjusted basis, one issue was that the efficient portfolios tended to have large weightings to relatively few sectors. The authors also found that maximum drawdowns (losses) of the strategies tended to be rather high, as was the benchmark.Practical implicationsThe methods outlined in this paper can be applied to construct superior risk-adjusted REIT portfolios globally.Originality/valueAlthough studies have been undertaken separately on REIT specialisation and trend following in equity and commodity markets, this paper is the first to combine the two topics, and therefore has particular value for real estate fund managers globally.

Economic Fundamentals for Office Properties and Shifts in REIT Portfolios 2007-2017

Gateway cities have historically been the focus of institutional investors in office properties. Since the financial crisis, however, office markets in other cities have enjoyed greater demand and rising occupancy rates relative to those in gateway cities. REITs have positioned themselves to benefit from this relative strength in secondary markets, through a shift in portfolio activities to these markets rather than the traditional gateway markets that constitute the bulk of REIT portfolios. Economic fundamentals including population and employment growth have supported the performance of office markets in these cities. REITs appear to have taken advantage of their knowledge of local market conditions in order to anticipate these changes in fundamental conditions in office markets.

The Asymmetric Conditional Beta-Return Relations of REITs

The traditional modern portfolio model posits that return is a function of beta—the stock’s sensitivity to market movements. However, much research suggests that on an empirical basis this expectation does not hold. Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur (1995) [PSM] suggest that the problem is that expected risk-return relationships are positive, but actual outcomes can vary. Thus we implement the PSM procedure to determine if we can obtain better explanatory ability for REIT returns relative to beta. Using PSM’s suggested technique, we find evidence that REIT stocks with higher betas have more positive returns when the realized market returns exceed risk-free rates and more negative returns when the realized market returns fall below risk-free rates. Furthermore, we form REIT portfolios based on betas and find that similar results hold for portfolio level: REIT portfolios with higher betas have more positive returns when the realized market returns exceed risk-free rates and more negative returns when the realized market returns fall below risk-free rates. We also examine beta relative to up and downside risk as suggested in Harlow and Rao (1989) [HR]. By using HR conditional beta approach, we find that REIT investors seem to view losses differently than gains. Our study is to determine if we can validate the positive risk-return trade-off predicted by CAPM and to show that a significant and positive systematic beta-return relation exists in both static and conditional CAPM model settings. We believe that our research effort is the first to incorporate both static beta estimation and asymmetric beta estimation to show a significantly positive risk-return trade-off in the industry of real estate investment trusts. Using HR generalized Mean-Lower Partial Moment Asset Pricing Model, we confirm that REIT stocks with higher downside betas have higher average returns, but upside betas are insignificant in the beta-return relation for REITs. We find similar results for portfolio level as well. Consistent with the findings on real estate market index returns in Cheng (2005), our results go beyond his findings to highlight the significance of downside beta risk in REIT industry during the recent global financial crisis.

Trend Following and Momentum Strategies for Global REITs

This study investigates whether the risk adjusted returns of a global REIT portfolio would be enhanced by adopting a trend following strategy (which is an absolute concept), a momentum based strategy (which is a relative concept and requires individual country allocations), or indeed a combination of the two. We examine the results in terms of both a dedicated Global REIT exposure, and the impact on a multi-asset portfolio. We find that the main improvements arise when the broad index is replaced with one of the four trend following (TF) strategies. The portfolios deliver similar returns but volatility is reduced by up to a quarter to the 8-9% range, the Sharpe ratios increase by 0.1 to 0.5 with the main benefit being the reduction in the maximum drawdown to under 30% compared to 43% when the broad index was used. We thus find that a combined momentum and trend following Global REIT strategy can be beneficial for both a dedicated REIT portfolio and adding REITs to a multi-asset portfolio.

Trend Following and Momentum Strategies for Global REITs

Executive SummaryIn this study, we investigate whether the risk-adjusted returns of a global REIT portfolio would be enhanced by adopting a trend following global strategy (which is an absolute concept sometimes known as absolute momentum), a momentum-based strategy (which is a relative concept and requires individual country allocations), or indeed a combination of the two. We examine the results in terms of both a dedicated global REIT exposure, and the impact on a multi-asset portfolio. We find that the main improvements arise when the broad index is replaced with one of the four trend following strategies. The portfolios deliver similar returns but volatility is reduced by up to a quarter to the 8%–9% range, the Sharpe ratios increase by 0.1 to 0.5 with the main benefit being the reduction in the maximum drawdown to under 30% compared to 43% when the broad index was used. We thus find that a combined momentum and trend following a global REIT strategy can be beneficial for both a dedicated REIT portfolio and adding REITs to a multi-asset portfolio.

Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios

A recent literature has shown that, similarity to stocks and bonds, REIT returns contain strong evidence of bull and bear regimes, that may best captured using nonlinear econometric models of the Markov switching type.

Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios

A recent literature has shown that REIT returns contain strong evidence of bull and bear dynamic regimes that may be best captured using nonlinear econometric models of the Markov switching type. In fact, REIT returns would display regime shifts that are more abrupt and persistent than in the case of other asset classes. In this paper we ask whether and how simple linear predictability models of the vector autoregressive (VAR) type may be extended to capture the bull and bear patterns typical of many asset classes, including REITs. We find that nonlinearities are so deep that it is impossibile for a large family of VAR models to either produce similar portfolio weights or to yield realized, ex-post out-of-sample long-horizon portfolio performances that may compete with those typical of bull and bear models. A typical investor with intermediate risk aversion and a 5-year horizon ought to be ready to pay an annual fee of up to 5.7 % to have access to forecasts of REIT returns that take their bull and bear dynamics into account instead of simpler, linear forecast.

Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques

There has accumulated strong evidence in the literature that market beta (β) is time varying. This paper contributes to the literature by studying how to best model the time varying beta for REITs. We include several commonly used methods and evaluate their performances in terms of in-sample beta estimates and out-of-sample beta forecasts. We apply these methods to U.S. equity REITs. Our results overwhelmingly suggest that the state space model is the best performer. Such a conclusion is supported by different evaluation criteria and robust to different sample splitting. Our findings have direct financial implications. The forecasted betas (preferably through the state space model) can be used in many applications such as estimating the cost of capital for the purpose of capital budgeting involving REITs, identifying equity REIT mispricing, evaluating the performance of managed REIT portfolios, etc.

Portfolio greenness and the financial performance of REITs

This paper investigates the effects of the energy efficiency and sustainability of commercial properties on the operating and stock performance of a sample of US REITs, providing insight into the net benefits of green buildings. We match data on LEED- and Energy Star-certified buildings with detailed information on REIT portfolios and calculate the share of green properties for each REIT over the 2000–2011 period. We estimate a two-stage regression model and document that the greenness of REITs is positively related to three measures of operating performance – return on assets, return on equity and the ratio of funds from operations to total revenue. We also document that there is no significant relationship between the greenness of property portfolios and abnormal stock returns, suggesting that stock prices already reflect the higher cash flows deriving from investments in more efficient properties. However, REITs with a higher fraction of green properties display significantly lower market betas.

REIT Institutional Ownership Dynamics and the Financial Crisis

Collectively, institutional investors hold large ownership stakes in REITs. The traditional view is that institutions are both long-term and passive investors. The financial crisis beginning in 2007 provides an opportunity to analyze the investment choices of institutional investors before, during, and after the crisis. Our results indicate that institutional ownership increased prior to the financial crisis, declined significantly during the period of market stress, but rebounded after. These results hold for four institutional investor subtypes: mutual funds/investment advisors, bank trusts, insurance companies, and other institutions, with mutual funds/investment advisors and bank trusts most clearly exhibiting this pattern. We also find evidence that institutions actively manage their REIT portfolios, displaying a “flight to quality” after the market downturn by reducing beta and individual risk exposure, and by increasing ownership in larger REITs.

Market Timing and Investment Selection: Evidence from Real Estate Investors

We explore fund managers' abilities to generate abnormal profi ts through characteristic timing and selectivity in the commercial real estate market, a market characterized by relative inefficiency compared to the publicly-traded equities market. Using data on publicly traded REIT portfolios as well as portfolios of private entities, we find that the vast majority of both public and private portfolio managers exhibit little market timing ability. Portfolio managers exhibit substantial variation in their ability to successfully select investments, with nearly half exhibiting positive selectivity. Both timing and especially selectivity performance exhibit signifi cant persistence in the center of the performance distributions, but not in the top deciles.

Extreme Risk Measures for International REIT Markets

Extreme risks associated with extraordinary market conditions are catastrophic for all investors. The ongoing financial crisis has perfectly exemplified this point. Surprisingly, there are few studies exploring this issue for REITs. This study aims to close the knowledge gap. We conduct a comprehensive study by utilizing all three methodological categories to examine their forecasting performances of VaR and ES for nine major global REIT markets. Our findings indicate that there is no universally adequate method to model extreme risks across global markets. Also, estimating risks for the stock and REIT markets may require different methods. In addition, we compare the risk profiles between the stock and REIT markets, and find that the extreme risks for REITs are generally higher than those of stock markets. The fluctuations of risk levels are well synchronized between the two types of markets. The current crisis has significantly increased the extreme risk exposure for both REIT and stock investors. In all, our results have significant implications for REIT risk management, portfolio selection, and evaluation.

They Would if They Could: Assessing the Bindingness of the Property Holding Constraints for REITs

This study examines the bindingness of the property holding constraints which REITs face on their portfolios, and illustrates how these constraints hinder REITs from exploiting opportunities to time the property market and thereby generate profits by taking advantage of the market's predictability. I first simulate a filter-based market timing strategy, which I show outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy out of sample over a wide range of levels of transaction costs. I further show that this strategy requires a substantial number of transactions with holding periods that are shorter than four years, and that imposing a four-year holding constraint significantly reduces the excess returns the strategy generates. I then analyze actual holding periods of properties in REIT portfolios and find that there seems to exist a large degree of demand for short property holding periods, and that thus the four-year constraint is quite binding. I proceed to model holding period as a function of current market performance, finding that REITs are more likely to hold a property beyond four years the higher the profit from the transaction, since this longer holding period is necessary in order for them to retain these capital gains. By contrast, this effect is insignificant for UPREITs, which, I argue, are not affected by the constraint, implying that those firms which are allowed to sell properties before four years to realize capital gains often do so. The results thus give strong support to my hypothesis that REITs are severely bound by this holding constraint, and further illustrate why REITs are unable to realize short-term property appreciation profits, as shown in Muhlhofer (2008).

REIT Momentum and the Performance of Real Estate Mutual Funds

REITs exhibit a strong and prevalent momentum effect that is not captured by conventional factor models. This REIT momentum anomaly hampers proper judgments about the performance of actively managed REIT portfolios. In contrast, a REIT momentum factor adds incremental explanatory power to performance attribution models for REIT portfolios. Using this factor, this study finds that REIT momentum explains a great deal of the abnormal returns that actively managed REIT mutual funds earn in aggregate. Accounting for exposure to REIT momentum also materially influences cross-sectional comparisons of the performances of REIT mutual funds. This study has important implications for performance evaluation, alpha–beta separation, and manager selection and compensation.