E S T O N I A IN S E P T E M B E R 1988: S T A L I N I S T S , C E N T R I S T S AND RESTORATIONISTS Rein Taagepera, University of California, Irvine The situation in Estonia is changing beyond recognition by the month. A paper I gave in late April on this topic needed serious updating for an encore in early June and needs a complete rewrite now, in early September 1988. x By the rime it reaches the readers, the present article will be outdated, too. Either liberalization will have continued far beyond the present stage or a brutal back- lash will have cut it short. Is the scholar reduced to merely chronicling events? Not quite. There are three basic political currents that took shape a year ago and are likely to continue throughout further liberalization and even a crackdown. This framework will help to add analytical perspective to the chronicling. Political Forces in Soviet Estonia Broadly put, three political forces are vying for prominence in Estonia: Stalinists who want to keep the Soviet empire intact, perestroika-minded cen- trists whose goal is Estonia's sovereignty within a loose Soviet confederation, and restorationists who want to reestablish the pre-WWII Republic of Estonia. All three have appreciable support within the republic population. In many cases the same person is torn among all three: Emotionally he might yearn for the independence of the past, rationally he might hope only for a gradual for- marion of something new, and viscerally he might try to hang on to gains made under the old rules. (These gains include not only formal careers but much more; for instance, a skillful array of connections to obtain scarce consumer goods, lovingly built over a long time, would go to waste in an economy of plenty.) 1. The Stalinists lost control of the republic top leadership in June 1988 but are still entrenched in various bureaucracies. They are supported by the gut-level feelings of many of the Russian-speaking immigrants, who form one third of the population. Some Russian colonists are afraid of losing their privileged status, which they see as a right rather than a privilege. Many more feel that an JBS, Vol. XX, No. 2 (Summer 1989)