Regression Discontinuity Research Articles

NO DIFFERENCE IN SHORT-TERM REVISION RATE AND EARLY MORTALITY IN UNCEMENTED VERSUS CEMENTED TOTAL HIP ARTHROPLASTY: A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY ANALYSIS IN THE DUTCH ARTHROPLASTY REGISTER DATA

Controversy persists over whether cemented or uncemented fixation is more effective in reducing revision and mortality risks following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a shift towards uncemented THA in Europe, Australia, and the US, no consensus exists on superior outcomes. This ambiguity in evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies necessitates advanced research methodologies to derive more definitive conclusions.This study investigates the causal impact of THA fixation type on 2-year and 5-year revision rates, along with 90-day mortality, utilizing a regression discontinuity (RD) design in scenarios where fixation choice is guided by patient age.Employing data from the Dutch Arthroplasty Register, we conducted a cohort study on primary THAs for osteoarthritis from 2007 to 2019. A “fuzzy” RD design was executed to compute the Local Average Treatment Effect for subjects around the age-based selection threshold for fixation type. The main outcome of interest was the revision rate at 2 years post-operation.Analysis for the 2-year revision endpoint, covering any cause, included 2,344 females and 1,671 males across 5 hospitals each, with no significant variation in revision rates observed. For the 5-year mark, 1,058 females in 3 hospitals and 214 males in 1 hospital were examined, similarly showing no significant differences. Mortality within 90 days post-operation was also investigated in 5 female and 7 male cohorts, with 2,180 and 2,145 surgeries respectively, yielding no substantial disparities.In conclusion, the RD analysis revealed no notable differences in revision rates at 2 and 5 years or in early mortality based on the fixation method used in THA. These outcomes suggest that the age-based preference for THA fixation may not influence the revision or mortality risk, underscoring the value of RD design in deriving causal insights from observational data.

Export cost of air pollution: A regression discontinuity design

This study examines the impact of air pollution on exports in China using a regression discontinuity design based on the Qinling Mountains-Huai River line. The findings show that air pollution harms firm exports, with a more pronounced impact on non-state-owned enterprises, heavily polluting industries, and densely populated regions. Specifically, a 1 % increase in air pollution correlates with an average reduction of 0.661 % in exports. These inhibitory effects are mainly caused by decreasing productivity, reducing markup rates, damaging regional quality reputations, causing labour resource misallocation and strengthening environmental regulations. Although air pollution spillovers from neighbouring cities may temporarily boost local firm exports and total production, they do not fully mitigate the overall negative impact of air pollution.

The historical origins of earnings management: a geographical discontinuity design based on the Great Wall

PurposeDoes the history of the bureaucratic system, along with the establishment of the Great Wall during the Ming and Qing dynasties (1368–1911), affect firm behavior across the borderlands of the Great Wall?Design/methodology/approachThe Ming and Qing dynasties built a centralized administrative system in the borderlands on the south side of the Great Wall, in contrast to the “feudal lordship” system on the north side. Employing a regression discontinuity analysis framework with the Great Wall as a geographical discontinuity, we examine the long-run effects of the Great Wall on firms’ earnings management.FindingsUsing a large sample of nonlisted firms in the central core frontier region, we show that the earnings management of firms in the region south of the Great Wall is significantly curtailed compared with firms in the north of it, and this effect is more pronounced for non-SOEs. Our findings are robust to a battery of tests to account for alternative explanations.Practical implicationsOverall, by emphasizing the role of institutions, like legal system, shaped in history on firms’ earnings management, this study sheds new light on institutional determinants of firms’ behaviors in earnings information disclosure.Originality/valueFirst, we enrich our understanding of the institutional determinants of firms’ financial reporting outcomes. Second, our findings shed new light on the long-term effects of historical ruling styles on modern corporate behavior.

The Effect of Paid Maternity Leave on Fertility and Mothers’ Labor Force Participation

This study examines how paid maternity leave (ML) impacted fertility and mothers’ labor force participation in Romania. The ML gives mothers the right to paid leave until the child turns one year old, and it offers 65%\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${65{\\%}}$$\\end{document} of monthly income before birth. I examine the effects of this policy change using a regression discontinuity design and census data. I show that mothers who are eligible for ML are 2.5 percentage-points more likely to have an additional child than those ineligible. The effect is persistent for seven years after the policy was implemented. I find no significant results regarding the mother’s labor force participation. These results have important implications regarding the shrinking working-age population and the ability to fund benefits programs.

Enhancing or attenuating? How patronage ties moderate the impact of performance feedback on performance improvement in the public sector

ABSTRACT This research investigates how performance feedback affects public organizations’ performance improvement and, more importantly, how patronage ties moderate the impact. Using China’s official city air quality ranking as the case, our empirical analyses with standard panel data models and the regression discontinuity design find that negative performance feedback leads to subsequent performance improvement and, more crucially and interestingly, that patronage ties enhance, rather than attenuate, this effect. Essentially, this study deepens and extends the performance feedback theory in the public sector by bringing in informal political institutions as boundary conditions, offering more nuanced understandings of organizational responses to performance feedback.

Platform-Provided Disclosure on Investor Base and Entrepreneurial Success: Evidence from Crowdfunding

ABSTRACT We employ a sharp regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effects of investor-base disclosure (IB DISCLOSE) on funding outcomes and entrepreneurship success. Since February 2016, Kickstarter has disclosed IB information, namely, backer statistics including geographic locations and previous funding experience of the backers, once the number of backers for a project reaches ten. Exploiting this discontinuity, we show the disclosure increases the likelihood of funding success by 10 percent and the amount of funds pledged by 13 percent. The effect is more pronounced when the project quality is high and for projects with less credible creators, high ex ante uncertainty, high information asymmetry between creators and backers, and high financial costs to backers. We also find IB DISCLOSE increases the likelihood of product delivery. Our study highlights the importance of platform-provided disclosure in improving the efficiency of capital allocation. JEL Classifications: M41; G24; L15; O31; D04.

The impact of winning funding on researcher productivity, results from a randomized trial

Abstract The return on investment of funding science has rarely been accurately measured. Previous estimates of the benefits of funding have used observational studies, including regression discontinuity designs. In 2013, the Health Research Council of New Zealand began awarding funding using a modified lottery, with an initial peer review stage followed by funding at random for short-listed applicants. This allowed us to compare research outputs between those awarded funding or not using a randomized experimental study design. The analysis included eighty-eight researchers who were followed for an average of 3.8 years of follow-up. The rate ratios (and 95 per cent credible intervals (CI)) for funding were 0.95 (95 per cent CI 0.67 to 1.39) for publications and 1.06 (95 per cent CI 0.79 to 1.43) for citations, showing no clear impact of funding on research outputs. The wider use of funding lotteries could provide robust estimates of the benefits of research funding to better inform science policy.

2244 Effect of long-term care insurance in a pilot city of China: health benefits among 12,930 disabled older adults

Abstract Introduction The surge of disabled older people has brought enormous burdens to society. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of long-term care insurance (LTCI) implementation on mortality and changes in physical ability among disabled older adults. Methods This was a prospective observational study based on data from the government led LTCI program in a pilot city of China from 2017 to 2021. Administrative data included the application survey of activities of daily living (ADL), the baseline characteristics and all-cause mortality. Return visit surveys of ADL were conducted between August 2021 and December 2021. A regression discontinuity model was used to analyse the impact of LTCI on mortality. Results: A total of 12,930 individuals older than 65 years were included in this study, and 10,572 individuals were identified with severe disability and participated in the LTCI program. Results LTCI implementation significantly reduced mortality by 5.10% (95% CI, −9.30% to −0.90%) and extended the survival time by 33.74 days (95% CI, 13.501 to 53.970). The ADL scores of the LTCI group dropped by 2.5 points on average, while the ADL scores of those did not participate in LTCI dropped by 25.0 points. The heterogeneity analysis revealed that the impact of LTCI on mortality reduction was more significant among females, individuals of lower age, those who were married, cared for by family members, and who lived in districts with rich care resources. Conclusions LTCI implementation had a favourable impact on the mortality and physical ability of participants. This research marks the first comprehensive exploration of the potential health benefits associated with the implementation of LTCI, providing valuable perspectives that can inform policy making and enhance the development of robust long-term care systems in developing countries.

The Effect of a Post-Bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 0.7 on COPD Diagnosis and Treatment: A Regression Discontinuity Design.

Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines recommend the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) only in patients with a post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity ratio (FEV1/FVC) less than 0.7. However the impact of this recommendation on clinical practice is unknown. What is the effect of a documented post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 0.7 on the diagnosis and treatment of COPD? We used a national electronic health record database to identify clinical encounters between 2007 to 2022 with patients 18 years of age and older in which a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC value was documented. An encounter was associated with a COPD diagnosis if a diagnostic code for COPD was assigned, and was associated with COPD treatment if a prescription for a medication commonly used to treat COPD was filled within 90 days. We used a regression discontinuity design to measure the effect of a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 0.7 on COPD diagnosis and treatment. Among 27 817 clinical encounters, involving 18 991 patients, a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 0.7 was present in 14 876 (53.4%). The presence of a documented post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 0.7 had a small effect on the probability of a COPD diagnosis, increasing by 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1% to 10.9%) from 38.0% just above the 0.7 cutoff to 44.0% just below this cutoff. The presence of a documented post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC had no effect on the probability of COPD treatment (-2.1%, 95% CI -7.2% to 3.0%). The presence of a documented post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC < 0.7 has only a small effect on the probability that a clinician will make a guideline-concordant diagnosis of COPD and has no effect on corresponding treatment decisions.

AGE DISCONTINUITY AND NONEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT POLICY EVALUATION THROUGH THE LENS OF JOB SEARCH THEORY

AbstractRecent papers use regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) based on age discontinuity to evaluate social assistance (SA) and unemployment insurance (UI) extension policies. Job search theory predicts that such designs generate biased estimates of the policy‐relevant treatment effect. Owing to market frictions, people below the age threshold modify their search behavior in expectation of future eligibility. We use a job search model to quantify the biases on various datasets in the literature. The impacts of SA benefits on employment are underestimated, whereas those of UI extensions on nonemployment duration are overestimated. The article provides insights for RDD evaluations of age‐discontinuous policies.

From debt breaches to employee safety: The hidden power of banking interventions

This study investigates the influence of bank interventions following breaches of debt covenants on workplace safety. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find robust evidence indicating a substantial decrease in employee injuries after covenant violations. Our channel analysis reveals that the impact of bank interventions is more pronounced when banks perform well in ESG-related employee relationships and take on less risk. Furthermore, the influence of bank interventions is stronger when banks have considerable control over firms and when employees have strong bargaining power. Our findings demonstrate that creditors play an active role in enhancing workplace safety, leading to improved employee welfare. The implications of our research highlight the potential for financial institutions to contribute to socially responsible practices and promote sustainable and safe working environments.

Intergenerational and Sibling Spillovers in High School Majors

This paper estimates family spillovers in high school major choice in Sweden, where admission to oversubscribed majors is determined based on GPA. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find large sibling and intergenerational spillovers that depend on the sex mix of a dyad. Same-sex siblings copy one another, while younger brothers recoil from an older sister’s choices. Fathers and mothers influence sons but not their daughters, except when a mother majors in the male-dominated program of engineering. Back-of-the-envelope calculations reveal that these within-family spillovers have sizable implications for the sex composition of majors. (JEL I21, J12, J13, J16)

Rural Roads, Farm Labor Exits, and Crop Fires

Even as policymakers seek to encourage economic development by addressing misallocation due to frictions in labor markets, the associated production externalities—such as air pollution—remain unexplored. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show access to rural roads increases agricultural fires and particulate emissions. Farm labor exits are a likely mechanism: rural roads cause movement of workers out of agriculture and induce farmers to use fire—a labor-saving but polluting technology—to clear agricultural residue or to make harvesting less labor-intensive. Overall, the adoption of fires due to rural roads increases infant mortality rates by 5.5 percent in downwind locations. (JEL D62, J43, O13, O18, Q12, Q51, Q53)

How Do Pre-Incubation Programs Foster New Venture Creation? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity

How Do Pre-Incubation Programs Foster New Venture Creation? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity

Rural labor migration and farmers’ arrangements of rice production systems in Central China: Insight from the intergenerational division of labor

Rice production is crucial for food security in China, and its relationship with rural labor migration has been studied extensively. Labor migration in rural China has taken new forms in recent years. There has been a discernible trend wherein adult children have started migrating to cities while their elderly parents return to villages to re-engage in on-farm work. The phenomenon has notably shaped the intergenerational division of labor (IDL) within households. However, it remains to be seen how farmers adjust their rice production systems in response to the IDL. The age of 60 years for employment injury insurance is the eligibility threshold for off-farm employment and is used to obtain a source of exogenous variation in the IDL. Based on a representative household survey of 1,752 rice farmers in the Hubei Province of Central China, our fuzzy regression discontinuity analysis reveals that farmers in IDL households are more likely to adopt ratoon rice (RR) than single cropping rice (SR) or double cropping rice (DR). The effect of the IDL varies under different levels of operational scales and specialized agricultural service availability. Further analysis suggests that farmers’ arrangements are associated with two potential mechanisms of downward intergenerational transfer. Monetary transfer for urban housing purchases increases RR in IDL households, and time transfer for intergenerational childcare significantly promotes SR in IDL households. This study enhances the understanding of the relationship between rural labor migration and rice production in China, providing a reference for adjusting rice production systems to ensure food security.

Effect of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Mobile Payments for Maternal Health: Regression Discontinuity Analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the unprecedented popularity of digital financial services for contactless payments and government cash transfer programs to mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic. The effect of the pandemic on the use of digital financial services for health in low- and middle-income countries, however, is poorly understood. This study aimed to assess the effect of the first COVID-19 lockdown on the use of a mobile maternal health wallet, with a particular focus on delineating the age-dependent differential effects, and draw conclusions on the effect of lockdown measures on the use of digital health services. We analyzed 819,840 person-days of health wallet use data from 3416 women who used health care at 25 public sector primary care facilities and 4 hospitals in Antananarivo, Madagascar, between January 1 and August 27, 2020. We collected data on savings, payments, and voucher use at the point of care. To estimate the effects of the first COVID-19 lockdown in Madagascar, we used regression discontinuity analysis around the starting day of the first COVID-19 lockdown on March 23, 2020. We determined the bandwidth using a data-driven method for unbiased bandwidth selection and used modified Poisson regression for binary variables to estimate risk ratios as lockdown effect sizes. We recorded 3719 saving events, 1572 payment events, and 3144 use events of electronic vouchers. The first COVID-19 lockdown in Madagascar reduced mobile money savings by 58.5% (P<.001), payments by 45.8% (P<.001), and voucher use by 49.6% (P<.001). Voucher use recovered to the extrapolated prelockdown counterfactual after 214 days, while savings and payments did not cross the extrapolated prelockdown counterfactual. The recovery duration after the lockdown differed by age group. Women aged >30 years recovered substantially faster, returning to prelockdown rates after 34, 226, and 77 days for savings, payments, and voucher use, respectively. Younger women aged <25 years did not return to baseline values. The results remained robust in sensitivity analyses using ±20 days of the optimal bandwidth. The COVID-19 lockdown greatly reduced the use of mobile money in the health sector, affecting savings, payments, and voucher use. Savings were the most significantly reduced, implying that the lockdown affected women's expectations of future health care use. Declines in payments and voucher use indicated decreased actual health care use caused by the lockdown. These effects are crucial since many maternal and child health care services cannot be delayed, as the potential benefits will be lost or diminished. To mitigate the adverse impacts of lockdowns on maternal health service use, digital health services could be leveraged to provide access to telemedicine and enhance user communication with clear information on available health care access options and adherence to safety protocols.

“Unfenced” parks and residents’ visit patterns: A regression discontinuity design in Shanghai

Parks have evolved into essential urban sanctuaries, especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic. While previous studies have investigated the impact of lockdown measures on park visitation, limited attention has been given to the impacts of sudden easing of containment measures, especially the “unfencing” of parks in densely populated cities. Employing a regression discontinuity design (RDD), this study analyzes changes in park visitation behaviors among Shanghai residents (N=563) following the policy relaxation. We focus on three key aspects: visitation behavior, choice of park types, and activities undertaken within public parks compared to gated community greenspaces. The results reveal a short-term decrease in visits to nearby parks, reduced public transit use, and shorter travel times. This trend was accompanied by a reduction in visitation to various park types, especially larger ones, with waterfront greenspaces being an exception. However, visit frequency and duration remained unchanged. A significant decrease in exercise and enjoying weather was observed in both parks and community greenspaces. Additionally, there was a noticeable reduction in activities like playing with children, nature appreciation, specifically within community greenspaces. These findings extend our understanding of urban residents' engagement with greenspaces in a transitioning post-pandemic context, providing valuable insights in managing greenspaces during and after public health crises.

Turning the page on energy poverty? Quasi-experimental evidence on education and energy poverty in Zimbabwe

We investigate the long-term causal effects of education on energy poverty among households headed by men and women, leveraging the 1980 Zimbabwe school reform as a quasi-experiment. This reform, which significantly expanded educational opportunities for all children, serves as an ideal setting for assessing the impact of education on energy poverty within a regression discontinuity design, with age at reform determining exposure. Exposure to the reform resulted in a 2.08-year average increase in schooling and a 28.3 percentage point (pp) increase in the probability of completing secondary schooling. The reform's impact was more pronounced for women, increasing their schooling by 2.35 years (compared to 1.68 years for men) and for rural residents, with a 2.53-year increase (compared to 1.00 year for urban residents). A one-year increase in education reduces the risk of energy poverty by an estimated 8.56%, more pronounced among male-head families (5 pp) than among female-headed households (4.6 pp). This increased education enhances labour market outcomes, household economic status, infrastructure quality, and access to information and promotes progressive societal norms. These findings underscore education's crucial role in sustainable and gender-inclusive economic development, highlighting the potential of educational policy in reducing energy poverty and advancing gender equality in low-income countries.

Unlocking the Potential of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Social Work Research

Purpose: This article introduces the regression discontinuity design (RDD) as a valuable quasi-experimental approach for evaluating social work interventions. Methods: The RDD is outlined, providing guidance on identifying and framing research questions within its structure. Detailed explanations of analytical procedures for estimating intervention effects under both sharp (treatment assignment strictly determined by a cutoff) and fuzzy (treatment assignment is influenced but not strictly determined by a cutoff) RDD conditions are included, along with common supplemental analyses to address potential validity threats. Results: Concrete examples of social work scenarios where RDD can be effectively employed are presented, showcasing innovative approaches that can enhance the design's utility. This paper also includes code for implementing these techniques. Conclusions: By examining the applications and methodologies of RDD, this article equips social work practitioners and researchers with a versatile tool to rigorously assess the impact of interventions and advance evidence-based practice within the field.

Jim Crow and Black Economic Progress after Slavery

Abstract This article studies the long-run effects of slavery and restrictive Jim Crow institutions on Black Americans’ economic outcomes. We track individual-level census records of each Black family from 1850 to 1940 and extend our analysis to neighborhood-level outcomes in 2000 and surname-based outcomes in 2023. We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, and wealth than Black families whose ancestors were free before the Civil War. The disparities between the two groups have persisted substantially because most families enslaved until the Civil War lived in states with strict Jim Crow regimes after slavery ended. In a regression discontinuity design based on ancestors’ enslavement locations, we show that Jim Crow institutions sharply reduced Black families’ economic progress in the long run.