Regional Differences Research Articles

Multipopulation mathematical modeling of vaccination campaign of COVID-19 in Cuba

ABSTRACT Cuba is facing a severe COVID-19 outbreak despite its efforts to contain the virus and vaccinate its population. We present a computational analysis using a modified multi-population compartmental model (SIR) to simulate the pandemic in Cuba under different scenarios. Additionally, we develop and analyze multi-population SIRV (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Vaccinated) and SIQRDV (Susceptible, Infected, Quarantined, Recovered, Deceased, Vaccinated) models specific to the Cuban context. This study integrates real-world vaccination data, including locally developed vaccines, and considers regional differences in vaccination coverage and age-specific outcomes. Our model evaluates the impact of the vaccination program on infection rates, considering vaccine efficacy and coverage while comparing the outcomes of different measures on transmission dynamics. Results indicate that vaccination and non-pharmacologic interventions can significantly reduce infections and deaths.

Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways

Abstract. Reducing emissions of non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), complements CO2 mitigation in limiting global warming. However, estimating carbon–climate feedback for these gases remains fraught with uncertainties, especially under overshoot scenarios. This study investigates the impact of CO2 and non-CO2 gases with nearly equal levels of effective radiative forcing on the climate and carbon cycle, using the Earth system model (ESM) IPSL-CM6A-LR. We first present a method to recalibrate methane and nitrous oxide concentrations to align with published radiative forcings, ensuring accurate model performance. Next, we carry out a series of idealised ramp-up and ramp-down concentration-driven experiments and show that, while the impacts of increasing and decreasing CO2 and non-CO2 gases on the surface climate are nearly equivalent (when their radiative forcing magnitudes are set to be the same), regional differences emerge. We further explore the carbon cycle feedbacks and demonstrate that they differ under CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. CO2 forcing leads to both carbon–climate and carbon–concentration feedbacks, whereas non-CO2 gases give rise to the carbon–climate feedback only. We introduce a framework, building on previous studies that addressed CO2 forcing, to separate the carbon–climate feedback into a temperature term and a temperature–CO2 cross-term. Our findings reveal that these feedback terms are comparable in magnitude for the global ocean. This underscores the importance of considering both terms in carbon cycle feedback framework and climate change mitigation strategies.

Paleoclimatic Events Since 25 kyr B.P. and the Regional Differences Documented by Phytoliths in the Central Songnen Plain, NE China

Identification of paleoclimate oscillation from various climate proxies across different regions is important for the mechanistic research of paleoclimate. Phytoliths from the lacustrine sediment of central NE China were extracted for paleoclimate reconstruction and abrupt event recognition. The combined phytolith assemblages; indices of Iw, Iph, D/P, Pi/P, and T/P; and the 66.4% PCA information with 95% confidence ellipse showed six global synchronously paleo-stages in the past 25,000 years: mixed coniferous broadleaf forest in a semi-humid cool climate (25,165–22,180 cal aB.P.), cold and arid steppe (22,180–18,080 cal aB.P.), semi-humid and semi-arid steppe (18,080–11,380); semi-humid cool grassland (11,380–7790 cal aB.P.), humid warm forest steppe (7790–4300 cal aB.P.), and semi-arid and cool meadow steppe (4300 cal aB.P. to the present). The global abrupt events of the 4.2-kiloyear event, 8.2-kiloyear event, Younger Dryas (YD), Heinrich1 (H1), and Heinrich2 (H2) were also captured by phytolith indices. The regional character of the reduction in humidity of the YD might have been affected by the combined influence of the Okhotsk High and the surrounding mountains. These findings not only strengthen phytolith palaeoresearch but also provide basic information for the mechanistic research of palaeoclimate in the edge area of Northeast Asia and promote global climate change research.

Development of a Brief Assessment Tool to Evaluate Early Low Nutrition Risk in Community Elderly: Creation of the Tool and Examination of Its Reliability and Criterion-related Validity

To date simple assessment tool to evaluate early low nutrition risk in general older population has not been available. This study aimed to create such tool and examined its reliability and criterion-related validity. 1,192 community elderly with a mean age of 74.7(5.8) years responded to a questionnaire consisting of 48 (Hatoyama) or 34 items (Kusatsu), which have been reported to be associated with nutritional state in older people. Item analysis was conducted on the 34 common items, and items were selected based on the following criteria: adequate pass rates and discriminative power, no gender and regional differences, and a certain level of commonality based on factor analysis. Next, the factor structure of the candidate items was examined through exploratory factor analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis was conducted as the final scale structure. Furthermore, Spearman's partial rank correlation coefficients (sex- and age-adjusted) between the created index and important health indicators were examined to determine the criterion-related validity. Finally, we obtained a semantic coherence of 4 factors (named health beliefs, dietary status, physical activity, and food-related quality of life) totaling 13 items; confirmatory factor analysis of the 4-factor solution yielded good model fit values, χ2 (59) =275.4 (p<0.001), CFI=0.930, and RMSEA=0.056. The factor loadings for each factor ranged from 0.43 to 0.82, indicating adequate loadings. The reliability of the index was shown to be high by Good-Poor analysis and Cronbach's α. The index showed statistically significant correlations with all health indicators. We have developed a simple assessment tool to evaluate early low nutrition risk in general older population.

The Burden of Asymptomatic Malaria Infection in Children in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Exploring Barriers to Elimination and Prevention

Abstract Background Malaria remains a major public health problem that continues to cause death in under-five children nearly every minute. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the pooled prevalence and predictors of asymptomatic malaria in children in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Relevant studies were retrieved from Web of Science, Cochrane Library, PubMed, Google Scholar, Gray Literature, Embase, and African Online Journal databases published between 2014 and 2024. Data quality was assessed by a tool developed by Hoy and colleagues and classified as low, moderate, or high risk of bias. We performed a random effects model and sub-group analysis by age group, region, and diagnostic methods. The protocol was registered in the PROSPERO (CRD42024584354). Results A total of 24 cross-sectional studies with 19,169 participants from 10 Sub-Saharan Africa countries were included in the analyses under the age of 15 years. The overall prevalence of asymptomatic malaria was 25% (95% CI: 20–30%) and showed no evidence of publication bias. Utilization of insecticide-treated nets was significantly associated with asymptomatic malaria. In addition, the overall prevalence of anemia in asymptomatic Plasmodium-infected children under the age of 15 was found to be 35% (95% CI: 24–46%). Subgroup analysis showed significant regional and diagnostic tool differences in asymptomatic Plasmodium infection. Conclusion The findings of this study revealed a high prevalence of asymptomatic plasmodium infection in children with significant regional variations. There was a significant association with anemia and the utilization of insecticide-treated nets.

Attribution and projection of regional winter wind energy drought in Europe

Abstract The decline of surface wind speed in many regions of the world is an important phenomenon as it is potentially expected to decrease wind power production. It is not clear, however, whether this decline takes the form of a gradual wind speed decrease or an increase in “wind energy droughts”, long periods with weak wind speeds. Both types of wind speed reductions contribute to a decline in wind power production. Prolonged and more frequent wind energy droughts, in particular, may reduce revenue and jeopardize wind farm projects. Past and future changes in wind energy droughts, as well as their underlying drivers, remain poorly understood. Here we show that winter wind energy droughts will become more probable in Europe and the return period of 10.3-year events during 1971-2000 have been shortened to about 10 years in the whole Europe, and it would be shortened to about 6.6 years during 2041-2070, under uncurbed greenhouse gases emission (scenario RCP8.5). In the current period, low wind energy winter has become more probable in most European countries, especially in the northern countries, showing a higher probability ratio of wind droughts. In the future, for some southern countries, the frequency of wind energy winter droughts is projected to decrease compared with the current period, which is helpful for the development of wind power generation in these countries. In addition, the changes in wind energy droughts are sensitive to the global warming level. With global warming at 1.5, 2, 3, 4 ℃ levels, low wind energy winter in Europe will occur more frequently as the probability is more than 1.13, 1.46, 1.53, 1.60 times as much as that in the current climate, respectively. The regional difference of attribution is meaningful for the optimization of wind energy transmission networks in Europe, which may be considered by large-scale wind energy producers.

More Complicated Than Meal, Meat, and Molasses: Historicizing Enslaved Rations in the Southern United States

ABSTRACT Throughout the southern United States, enslavers issued weekly rations to the people they enslaved. While the types and amount of food varied across time and from region to region, there has not yet been a detailed study of rationing practices across the South. This article presents the first such study, exploring differences in the food Southern enslavers issued from the 1720s to the 1860s. It does so using a dataset of 596 quotes from 568 accounts by 533 formerly enslaved people, enslavers, travelers, and white abolitionists. Trends in these accounts show that weekly rations became larger and increasingly diverse throughout the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and that important regional differences gave way to more uniform rationing practices throughout most of the South during the 1850s–1860s.

Regional hippocampal thinning and gyrification abnormalities and associated cognition in children with prenatal alcohol exposure

Abstract Background Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) impacts hippocampal structure and function, contributing to deficits in memory and decision-making in affected individuals. Here, we evaluate hippocampal anomalies in children with PAE and an unexposed comparison group using advanced MRI methods that characterize hippocampal curvature and thickness. Methods Participants, ages 8 to 16 years, included children with PAE (n = 48) and an unexposed comparison group (n = 46) who underwent a dysmorphology exam, neuropsychological assessment, and an MRI scan. Height, weight, head circumference, and dysmorphic facial features were evaluated. Of those with PAE, 4.2% had fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), 22.9% had partial FAS, and 72.9% had alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder. Neuropsychological testing included measures of intelligence and memory functioning. T1-weighted anatomical data were processed with the Hippunfold pipeline, which “unfolds” the complex hippocampal structure onto a template surface and provides measures of thickness and gyrification/curvature at each vertex. Permutation Analysis of Linear Models (PALM) was used to test for group differences (PAE vs. comparison) in hippocampal thickness and gyrification at each vertex and also to assess correlations with cognitive functioning. Results There were significant regional differences in thickness and gyrification across bilateral hippocampi, with the PAE group showing substantially thinner tissue and less curvature than the comparison group, especially in CA1 and subiculum regions. For those with PAE, thinner subicular tissue (bilateral) was associated with lower IQ. Also in the PAE group, lower episodic memory performance was associated with thinness in the right hippocampus, especially in the subiculum region. There were no significant regional hippocampal patterns that were associated with cognitive functioning for individuals in the unexposed comparison group. Conclusions We used a novel MRI method to evaluate hippocampal structure in children with PAE and an unexposed comparison group. The data suggest that PAE disrupts hippocampal development, impacting both the early-stage folding of the structure and its ultimate thickness. The data also demonstrate that these developmental anomalies have functional consequences in terms of core memory functions as well as global intellectual functioning in children with PAE.

Coordination or Conflict? The Synergistic Effect and Driving Mechanism of Green Technology Innovation and Tourism Green Development

Exploring the dynamic synergistic effect and driving mechanism of green technology innovation (GTI) and tourism green development (TGD) is of great significance for reducing the environmental footprint of tourism, enhancing the capacity of sustainable development, and promoting the practical application of green technology and industrial upgrading. This study takes 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China as research objects, and the time span of the study is from 2007 to 2023. The dynamic synergistic effects and driving mechanisms of GTI and tourism green development (TGD) are revealed by comprehensively adopting the coupled coordination model and panel quantile regression model. The results of this study show that (1) the average value of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) shows a small upward trend, with regional differences for Shanghai &gt; Zhejiang &gt; Jiangsu &gt; Anhui. (2) High coupling coordination degree (CCD) areas are spatially concentrated in provincial capital cities, with prominent spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristics and spatial correlation. (3) Industrial structure, human capital, and tourism resource endowment have a significant contribution to the coupling coordination degree, while informationization level and transport facilities show heterogeneous influence effects in different sub-location contexts. The level of openness and environmental regulation did not show the ‘pollution shelter’ effect, confirming ‘Porter’s hypothesis’ to some extent. (4) This study not only provides new evidence for the synergistic effect of green technological innovation and the green development of tourism, but it also provides an important reference for green technological innovation to empower the high-quality development of tourism.

Trends and determinants of obesity among ever-married women aged 15–49 in India: insights from National Family Health Surveys (NFHS 1998–2021)

BackgroundObesity has emerged as a significant public health concern in India, particularly among ever-married women of reproductive age (EMWRA). This study analyses trends in obesity among EMWRA across India and its states from 1998 to 2021 and explores the factors contributing to obesity in this group.MethodsData from four National Family Health Survey (NFHS) rounds, spanning 1998-99 to 2019-21, were pooled to create a dataset of 1,117,433 participants. We analysed obesity trends in India and its states and assessed β- and σ-convergence in obesity rates during this period. Additionally, we examined changes in socioeconomic differentials in obesity over this period. Binary logistic regression was used to explore the association of obesity with socioeconomic, demographic, and temporal factors.ResultsOver the study period, obesity among ever-married women of reproductive age (EMWRA) in India has shown a startling increase, tripling from 5.1% (95% CI: 4.7–5.5) in 1998-99 to 15.7% (15.4–15.9) in 2019-21. While obesity rates have surged across all states, the degree of increase varies significantly (ranging from 22.9% points in Tamil Nadu to 2.6 in Meghalaya). Presently, two prominent regions in the country exhibit high obesity rates: the southern region, including Tamil Nadu (29%), Kerala (25%), Goa (25%), and Andhra Pradesh (23%), and the northwestern region, encompassing Delhi (33%), Punjab (31%), and Haryana (24%). Moreover, the disparity in obesity rates across states has widened over time, with states initially showing higher rates experiencing a faster growth rate compared to those with lower initial rates, as highlighted by the β- and σ-convergence analyses. There was substantial variation in obesity rates across education, wealth, place of residence, and social group categories. The risk of obesity is higher among older, educated, wealthy, non-Hindu EMWRAs and TV watchers, but lower among those living in rural areas, the southern region, smaller households, and belonging to SC, ST, and OBC social groups.ConclusionThe surge in obesity among Indian ever married women of reproductive age calls for immediate public health measures. Customized strategies, acknowledging regional differences, are vital to tackle diverse obesity rates across states. Prioritizing vulnerable groups, including the poor, uneducated, and urban populations, is critical for ensuring fair health outcomes.

Toxicological landscape of Fuzi: a comprehensive study on the spatial distribution of toxicants and regional neurotoxicity variability in zebrafish

Fuzi, a Chinese herb widely used in clinical settings, exhibits varying levels of toxicity depending on its geographical origin. Diester-type alkaloids are the primary contributors to the toxicity of Fuzi. This study aims to investigate regional differences and underlying mechanisms of Fuzi-induced neurotoxicity across China. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/Ionization mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI-MSI) method was employed to map the spatial distribution of six key diester-type alkaloids from Fuzi samples originating from five major regions. The results showed that the diester-type alkaloids were primarily distributed in the cuticle of Anguo- and Ludian-Fuzi, in the cuticle, cork, and pith of Butuo-Fuzi, in the phloem and pith tissues of Chenggu-Fuzi, and in the cuticle, cork, inner phloem, and pith of Jiangyou-Fuzi. When zebrafish were exposed to a Fuzi decoction for 24 h, it was observed that Jiangyou-Fuzi induced the most significant neurobehavioral abnormalities, lipid peroxidation damage, and aberrant neurotransmitters release. RNA sequencing analysis further indicated that the amino acid metabolism, ErbB, cGMP-PKG, and p53 signaling pathways-regulated by changes in the expression of Glub, Mao, GAB1, PRKG1B, PSEN2, and BAXα genes were disrupted to varying extents by Fuzi from different origins. In summary, the regional variability in the neurotoxicity of Fuzi can be attributed to differences in the distribution of its active compounds and underlying mechanisms. Among the samples tested, Jiangyou-Fuzi exhibited the highest neurotoxicity, followed by Anguo-, Chenggu-, Ludian-, and Butuo-Fuzi.

Regional differences in triage decisions affect hospital mortality among frail COVID-19 patients in the COvid MEdicaTion study

ObjectivesThe scarcity of intensive care unit (ICU) beds during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a large number of national and international guidelines for the triage of ICU admission. Regional variation in medical decision making might affect ICU triage decisions. We investigate whether regional differences in ICU admission, as surrogate for triage decisions, affect in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.MethodsThe COMET study is a multicenter, observational cohort study, including adult patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between March 2020– July 2020. Patients’ characteristics, prescribed medication, clinical characteristics, and CFS were collected. Patients from 11 European countries were included and these countries were categorized into two regions: north and south. The effects of region on ICU admission and in-hospital mortality were assessed using logistic regression analyses stratified for frailty.ResultsFrail patients had a higher risk for ICU admission in southern compared to northern countries (OR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.10–2.46), whereas fit patients had a similar risk for ICU admission in southern compared to northern countries (OR: 0.75; 95%CI: 0.55–1.01). There was no difference in in-hospital mortality between northern and southern countries for fit and frail patients (respectively OR: 0.82; 95% CI 0.52–1.29, and OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 0.74–1.66).ConclusionOur study shows that, despite variation in rates of ICU admission between northern and southern countries for frail patients, no difference in in-hospital mortality was observed. This might help optimize prioritization of resources in a pandemic setting while offering options for palliative care instead of ICU admission.

Addressing the rising colorectal cancer burden in the older adult: examining modifiable risk and protective factors for comprehensive prevention strategies

BackgroundColorectal cancer is one of the most prevalent and deadly cancer types worldwide. Emerging evidence suggests that high body mass index (BMI) is a significant risk factor for colorectal cancer, particularly among the older adult population. This comprehensive analysis aims to explore the complex epidemiological patterns of colorectal cancer, with a focus on the association between high BMI and disease burden in the older adult.MethodsThe study leveraged data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to examine the temporal trends, regional disparities, and the interplay of age, period, and cohort factors in shaping the global colorectal cancer landscape. Epidemiological techniques, including age-period-cohort modeling and joinpoint regression analysis, were employed to provide insights into the potential drivers of the evolving disease burden while controlling for relevant confounding factors.ResultsThe analysis revealed significant geographical disparities in the burden of colorectal cancer among the older adult population. Countries like Uruguay, Monaco, Croatia, Hungary, and Poland exhibited higher mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates, while regions like Bangladesh, Nepal, and much of Africa had relatively lower disease burden. These regional differences are likely attributable to variations in healthcare systems, access to screening and early detection programs, as well as differences in lifestyle behaviors and risk factor prevalence.ConclusionThe strong association between high BMI and colorectal cancer risk, particularly in the older adult population and among men, emphasizes the importance of comprehensive obesity management strategies as part of comprehensive cancer control efforts. Targeted interventions, such as community-based weight management programs and enhanced screening initiatives in high-risk regions, could help mitigate the disproportionate burden of colorectal cancer observed in countries like Monaco, Croatia, and Hungary. Ongoing research and multifaceted public health interventions are crucial to address the growing global burden of colorectal cancer and mitigate the disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations. Strengthening healthcare systems, improving access to quality cancer care, and promoting lifestyle modifications to reduce obesity and other modifiable risk factors should be prioritized to effectively combat this pressing public health challenge.

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influence factors of high-quality development of animal husbandry industry in China.

The animal husbandry industry stands as a pillar of the agricultural sector. According to the defining characteristics of high-quality development in animal husbandry, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluative indicator system. This system evaluates the quality of development in the industry from 2010 to 2022, including five key dimensions: output efficiency, product safety, resource conservation, environmental friendliness, and the level of scientific and technological &management. Results indicate a positive overall trend in the high-quality development of China's animal industry throughout this period. Provinces exhibiting the highest average levels of development are, in descending order, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Beijing, Fujian, Yunnan, Chongqing, Gansu, Guangdong, and Guangxi. Among these five dimensions, the level of environmental friendliness and the level of scientific and technological &management are better developed, while the level of resource conservation, the level of product safety, and the level of output efficiency are poorly developed. Regional differences have demonstrated a slight narrowing trend; however, the effect of intra-regional differences on the overall differences has remained relatively stable. In contrast, the effect of inter-regional differences on overall differences has gradually reduced, while the effect of hypervariable density has steadily increased, becoming the most significant factor. High-quality development in China's animal industry exhibits a strong path dependency, with advancements typically occurring incrementally between adjacent levels and an insignificant probability of leapfrogging. The level of high-quality development in a given region is significantly influenced by the development levels observed in neighbouring regions, illustrating a phenomenon akin to the adage that One who is near vermilion is stained red, one who is near ink is stained black. Factors such as urbanisation rates, levels of scientific and technological innovation, transport infrastructure, levels of agricultural financial development, and population density all contribute positively to the high-quality development of China's animal industry. At the same time, a larger share of animal husbandry in both the overall industrial sector and the agricultural industry further contributes to this high-quality development; whereas, GDP per capita and fiscal support for agriculture do not appear to have a significant effect.

Building security and resilience: a guide to implementing effective cybersecurity and data protection measures in smart cities

PurposeAs cities increasingly embrace smart technologies to enhance efficiency, sustainability and quality of life, integrating cybersecurity and data protection measures becomes paramount. This paper analyzes cybersecurity and data protection practices based on the existing strategies and projects in smart cities.Design/methodology/approachA research methodology involving searching for resources, content analysis and the Delphi method was developed to select the sample of smart cities, identify relevant resources, analyze and categorize their content, validate their relevance and transform them into a list of recommendations.FindingsThe findings include a validated list of 39 recommendations categorized into 6 categories for implementing robust cybersecurity and data protection measures in smart cities. We found that smart cities employ various measures to address cybersecurity and data protection, including technical solutions, organizational practices, policies and human resources initiatives. The smart economy and smart governance components are prioritized regarding data protection and cybersecurity measures, while smart living and smart environments receive less attention than others. There are regional differences in the implementation of cybersecurity measures, with Asia and Europe demonstrating higher levels of engagement.Originality/valueThe paper provides an approach to select sample smart cities and analyze their strategies and projects in different contexts to gather and validate best practices. The measures identified contribute to building sustainable and resilient cities regarding urban governance.

Impact of monthly air pollution and weather conditions on cardiorespiratory mortality in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas

This study analyses cardiorespiratory mortality rates (CARDIO) and their association with air pollutants - particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters lower of equal to 10 or 2.5 (µm) (PM10, PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) - and meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, direction) in the Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA) metropolitan areas from 2011 to 2020. Monthly analyses reveal regional patterns and seasonal variations. The results show that PMA had a higher average CARDIO rate (202.94 [Deaths per 100 000]) compared to LMA (169.70 [Deaths per 100 000]). Linear and Poisson regression, contingency tables, correspondence analysis and Pearson’s chi-squared tests confirmed significant associations between low temperature and wind speeds, high pollutant concentrations, and increased mortality. Lower temperature (≤ 13 [°C]) and wind speed (≤ 2.5 [m/s]) were consistently associated with increased CARDIO in both regions. High pollutant levels, particularly PM10 (≥ 24 [µg/m³]) and NO2 (≥ 24 [µg/m³]), were also associated with higher CARDIO rates. Additionally, high PM2.5 and CO levels were linked to increased CARDIO in LMA. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend in CARDIO for LMA, but a statically significant increasing trend of 2.14 [Deaths per 100 000]) per month for PMA. This study shows the importance of mid-term exposure standards and emphasises the need for multifactorial assessments of air quality and meteorological impacts on health, as regional differences in pollutant dynamics and meteorological conditions may significantly impact cardiorespiratory mortality in urban areas.

Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate-Induced Saltwater Intrusion of Smallholder Vegetable Farmers in The Gambia

Saltwater intrusion represents an increasingly significant challenge for smallholder vegetable farmers in The Gambia, particularly in the Lower River Region (LRR) and North Bank Region (NBR). This study therefore examines the demographic, vulnerability of agricultural landscape to saltwater intrusion, and the resilience of 35 smallholder vegetable farming households in the North Bank (NBR) and Lower River (LRR) regions, using the Composite Index of Climate Resilience (CICR) specific to saltwater intrusion and the Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) framework. Given that 91% of households derive their livelihoods from agricultural production, the study identifies high levels of awareness regarding climate change (94%) and indicate that 89% of farmers have experienced a decline in crop yields and income as a result of saltwater intrusion. There are regional and gender differences, the NBR exhibits a higher Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) than the LRR. While female-headed households demonstrate greater access to essential services, yet face more significant barriers to agricultural assets. In contrast, male-headed households exhibit stronger adaptive capacities. In sum, the findings indicate that saltwater intrusion exacerbates vulnerabilities and threatens food security. This highlights the necessity for targeted, region-specific, and gender-sensitive interventions, including improved agricultural inputs, social safety nets, and literacy support, to strengthen resilience among Gambian smallholder farmers and support sustainable livelihoods.

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of environmental welfare performance in Chinese cities

BackgroundIn the process of China’s urbanization, issues such as air pollution, water pollution, soil pollution, and noise pollution have become increasingly prominent, severely constraining the sustainable development of cities. The resultant decline in environmental welfare performance (EWP) not only affects residents’ quality of life but may also lead to public health issues, increasing healthcare costs, and subsequently impacting social stability and economic development.MethodsThis paper incorporates factors closely related to environmental pollution, such as residents’ health and social welfare, into the analytical framework of environmental welfare performance. Using the Hybrid-Network-DEA model, we measure the EWP of 240 cities in China, and then investigate the spatial distribution characteristics and spatio-temporal evolution patterns of EWP. Finally, empirical testing of the factors influencing EWP is conducted using spatial econometric methods.ResultsThe overall level of EWP in 240 Chinese cities from 2004 to 2019 is relatively low, but it generally shows a wavy upward trend. Meanwhile, notable regional disparities exist in EWP, with the highest average performance in the east, followed by the west, and the lowest in the central. The main source of regional differences in EWP lies in inter-regional disparities. The greatest internal disparities are found in the east, while the largest inter-regional disparities are between the east and the west. A pronounced positive spatial autocorrelation is observed in the EWP among Chinese cities. Economic development, opening-up, financial development, digital infrastructure, and population density significantly promote the local EWP, whereas the industrial structure and transportation structure have exerted opposite effects. Additionally, the enhancement of EWP in neighboring regions is also notably facilitated by economic development, opening-up, financial development, and digital infrastructure. Within the three major regions, the direct and indirect effects of various influencing factors exhibit significant differences.ConclusionBased on these insights, we suggest comprehensively improving environmental welfare efficiency, narrowing regional disparities, strengthening spatial agglomeration effects, optimizing industrial structure, and strengthening financial support and digital infrastructure construction.

The role of employment, labour productivity and trade linkages in the evolution of European regional disparities

The paper disentangles the role of specific factors in the evolution of regional disparities within the EU. First, investigated is the role of employment and labour productivity, with particular reference to specific market-oriented sectors (manufacturing and private services). Second, studied is the role of trade linkages and proximities in the evolution of regional disparities on the EU. To achieve the aims, recently developed factor and spatial decompositions of the Theil index are applied to data at sectoral level covering the past twenty-five years. Furthermore, recent regional trade data are used to produce trade-based proximity matrices to compare with more traditional distance-based ones. This allows departing from a traditional conception of space as physical proximity, looking at the insertion in trade networks. The findings show a primary role of labour productivity differences in the explanation of regional differentials between the EU countries, but with a diminishing role after the Great Recession. Furthermore, detected is a raising importance of regional differences in the structure of labour markets/employment to explain regional disparities within and between the EU countries. The paper finally and most innovatively points out the prominent role of trade network connections to understand regional inequalities in the EU over time and across sectors. This is shown to be relevant and increasing in time. The analysis calls for policies targeting national and regional productivity with the aim of limiting spatial polarization. This is essential because trade linkages, i.e. integration, are an essential determinant of disparities patterns in the EU.

Regional Space–time Differences and Dynamic Evolution Law of Real Estate Financial Risk in China

Abstract This study develops a framework to evaluate real estate financial risk from three perspectives: internal risk factors, external risk factors, and interconnected risk factors, examining regional space–time differences and dynamic evolution laws across 30 provinces in China. The research finds that (1) interconnected risk factors are key contributors to real estate financial risk. (2) Significant regional differences in real estate financial risks exist across China. The western and northeastern regions are hotspots for risk, while the eastern region exhibits the most pronounced market stratification and polarization. (3) There is significant spatial autocorrelation in China’s real estate financial risks, with most provinces showing high–high (HH) and low–low (LL) clustering. HH clusters are primarily located in the western and northeastern regions, while LL clusters are more prevalent in the central and eastern regions. (4) The distribution of real estate financial risks follows a single-peak evolutionary pattern, characterized by the dynamic transition of weakening LL clusters and strengthening HH clusters. (5) The dynamic evolution of China’s real estate financial risks exhibits strong “spatial stickiness” and “positive reinforcement.” Over time, the probability of regions transitioning to higher-risk types increases, demonstrating a trend toward escalating risk levels.