Regional Tree-ring Chronology Research Articles

Tree-ring widths of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr reveal variability of winter half-year precipitation on the north-south transition zone in central China over the past 220 years

Long-term, high-resolution regional drought records contribute to understanding the impacts of drought on environmental and social systems in central China. Here, we develop a regional tree-ring width chronology of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr from the northern slope of Funiu Mountains on the north-south transition zone in central China. Monthly correlation analyses showed that temperature and humidity in current May and June are main limiting factors on tree growth. Despite that, the highest correlation with tree growth was found to be precipitation from previous December to current June (PreDJ, 0.718, p < 0.001), which was chosen for reconstruction. The reconstructed PreDJ revealed six drought periods and five wet periods over the past 220 years, and the recent dry spell would likely to continue. Spectral analyses indicated that the reconstructed PreDJ was closely related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, 2-7a) and 35a climatic oscillation of Bruckner, and was also affected by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Wavelet analyses showed that the quasi-cycle of 2-7a persisted over the past 220 years and strengthened after the 1980s, and the QBO signals appeared from the 1860s to 1970s and wear off thereafter, and 35a cycle only appeared during 1820–1920. Spatial analysis found that the reconstructed PreDJ had good spatial representation of precipitation in the central-eastern China. Therefore, the results of this study provide reliable information for understanding long-term drought impacts on environmental conditions and socioeconomic development in central China.

Dendroarchaeology of Birnirk and Thule Architectural Timbers (10–13th Centuries)

Abstract Along the coast of northwestern Alaska, architectural wood remains are well preserved in the Birnirk and Thule coastal sites of the early 2nd millennium CE. These structural wood elements are unique archives for documenting climatic variations and cultural transformations during this key development period of Inuit culture. Along this treeless Arctic coast, driftwood accumulates from the subarctic forests of interior Alaska. Except for northwestern Alaska, regional tree-ring chronologies are too short (at best 350–400 years) to successfully date archaeological wood remains from Birnirk and Thule coastal sites using conventional dendrochronology. This paper examines the potential of tree-ring derived δ18O signal to annually date eight architectural wood samples from the Rising Whale (KTZ-304) site at Cape Espenberg, northwestern Alaska. We developed a δ18O master chronology, covering the period 935–1157 CE, using five wood samples from the KTZ-304 site. Blind isotope cross-dating of individual series belonging to this δ18O master chronology (one against the other four) showed conclusive dating and a very strong coherence of the isotopic signal. We, then, used the δ18O master chronology to cross-date three other wood samples for which we knew, from previous 14C wiggle-matching procedure, the first measured ring to be in this time interval, within a ± 18 to 30-year precision. Oxygen isotope dendrochronology provided a plausible date for one of the samples (the first measured ring at 1073 CE). This preliminary study encourages us to acquire additional data to extend in time and strengthen the δ18O master chronology of northwestern Alaska (NWAK18O) and help refine our understanding of climate and culture change during the 2nd millennium CE.

Unusual recent prolonged low flow in the Moqu River, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, inferred from tree-ring width variations

The runoff of Moqu river in Zoige, one of most important water conservation ecological function areas in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, located in the north-east of the Tibetan Plateau, is highly sensitive to climate change. However, the current understanding of the long-term changes in the hydrology of this rives is still fragmentary. In this study, we created a regional tree-ring width chronology from two sample sites in Moqu River Basin and analysed the relationships between tree-ring width, climate, and runoff. We found significant positive correlations between tree-ring width and runoff in multiple months, the highest correlation coefficient occurred with annual runoff from previous July to current June (r = 0.617, 1981–2013). Based on this highly significant (p < 0.01) relationship, we reconstructed runoff variations of Moqu River for the period 1672 to 2019. The reconstructed runoff showed unusual prolonged and frequent low flow periods in recent decades. We found that the continuous low precipitation and the high temperature in the context of global warming are the main reasons for the abnormal runoff in recent decades. We assume that a weakening of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation system may be the key large-scale factor that caused the unusually prolonged low flow. With global warming, the weakening of ISM intensity leads to reduced water vapor transport from the tropical Indian Ocean to High Asia, resulting in less precipitation and low runoff events in Zoige. Our reconstruction improves the understanding of regional runoff variability over multiple timescales, and also provides a scientific basis for the protection, development, and utilization of water resources related to ongoing global warming.

The first tree-ring reconstrruction of streamflow variability over the last ∼250 years in the Lower Danube

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize climate variability and change prior to the instrumental record, in order to improve our estimates of climate extremes and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. Most of these reconstructions are focused on temperature, precipitation, and/or drought indices and, to a lesser extent, reconstruct streamflow variability. In this study, the first regional tree-ring width chronology (i.e. Quercus sp.), from the Caraorman forest (Danube Delta, Romania), was used to reconstruct the last ∼250 years of annual (from November previous year to July of the current year) streamflow of the Lower Danube River. The obtained results indicate a stable and significant correlation between the tree-ring width index from the Caraorman forest and the Danube streamflow at the Ceatal Izmail hydrologic station situated in the southeastern part of Europe. Interannual streamflow variation for the analyzed period indicates 14 extremely high flow years, with streamflow greater than 8780 m3/s (1770, 1771, 1799, 1836, 1838, 1839, 1871, 1876, 1877, 1879, 1940, 1941, 1997 and 2010) and 14 extremely low flow years, with streamflow lower than 5300 m3/s (1741, 1745, 1750, 1753, 1773, 1794, 1812, 1832, 1843, 1882, 1899, 1921, 1964 and 1994). Periods characterized by pluvials in the lower Danube Delta are associated with a low-pressure system centered over Europe, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean, and negative SST anomalies over the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas. These large-scale conditions favor the advection of moist air from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea towards the southeastern part of Romania, which in turn leads to high precipitation rates over this region. Opposite to this, low streamflow years are associated with a high-pressure system centered over Europe, characterized by a northward shift of the storm tracks and negative SST anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean, and positive SST anomalies over the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas. Based on our results, we argue that the reconstruction of river streamflow data based on the tree-ring width has important scientific and practical implications for a better understanding of the streamflow variation of the past, necessary for water resource management and environmental-hydrological protection.

Dating Coastal Archaeological Wood From Pingusugruk (15th–17th CE), Northern Alaska:

Abstract Along the coasts of northern Alaska, in a treeless tundra environment, the primary wood resource for coastal populations is driftwood, a seasonal and exogenous resource carried by the major rivers of western North America. The potential of Alaskan coastal archaeological wood for tree-ring research was first assessed in the 1940s by archaeologist and tree-ring research pioneer J. L. Giddings. Despite his success, the difficulties of dendrochronological studies on driftwood and the development of radiocarbon dating during the 1950s resulted in the near-abandonment of dendrochronology to precisely date archaeological sites and build long sequences using archaeological wood in Alaska. In this study, we explored the possibilities and limitations of standard ring-width dendrochronological methods for dating Alaskan coastal archaeological wood. We focus on the site of Pingusugruk, a late Thule site (15th–17th CE) located at Point Franklin, northern Alaska. The preliminary results have been obtained from the standard dendrochronological analyses of 40 timber cross-sections from two semi-subterranean houses at Pingusugruk. We cross-correlated individual ring-width series and built floating chronologies between houses before cross-dating them with existing regional 1000-year-long master chronologies from the Kobuk and Mackenzie rivers (available on the International Tree-Ring Databank, ITRDB). Additional work on various dendro-archaeological collections using an interdisciplinary approach (geochemical analyses of oxygen isotopes and radiocarbon dating) will help develop and expand regional tree-ring chronologies and climatic tree-ring sequences in Alaska.

Precipitation and Streamflow Reconstructions from Tree Rings for the Lower Kızılırmak River Basin, Turkey

The Kızılırmak River is the longest inland river, has the second-largest basin, and is one of the most important water sources of Turkey. On the other hand, flow data in the basin are too short-term and discordant, with too many gaps to provide reliable information regarding variations in river runoff. In this research, we reconstructed the April–July total precipitation and mean April–August streamflow of Gökırmak River at one gauge in the lower Kızılırmak River Basin using seven regional tree-ring chronologies. Tree-ring chronologies were highly correlated with the precipitation from April to July and with the streamflow from April to August. Both reconstructions successfully explained total variance in instrumental records with 0.36 (precipitation) and 0.35 (streamflow) R2 values. We provided 210 years (1794–2003) of precipitation and streamflow reconstructions, which largely overlapped. Five extreme dry (1840, 1842, 1873, 1887, and 1947) and four extreme wet years (1829, 1837, 1814 and 1881) were determined. The longest consecutive drought and wet events were three years long, for the periods of 1926–1928 and 1835–1837, respectively. The 13-year low-pass filter values highlighted a 30-year-long (from 1843 to 1872) stationary period of April–August mean streamflow.

The dendrochronological proof of origin of oak churches located in the Czech Republic

Transcarpathian wooden churches started to dilapidate after World War I. To preserve the architectural heritage, five oak churches were transported from the region to the territory of today's Czech Republic. However, an exact date of their construction and origin of wood have not been specified and evidenced in literature. In this study, 63 samples have been collected and processed using standard dendrochronological methods. Three Baroque churches, coming from the Mukachevo district, were absolutely dated thanks to the preserved waney edge or sapwood tree rings to periods 1734–1744, 1753–1755, and 1783–1795. Two other churches, representing Gothic architecture, were transported from a more eastern part of Transcarpathian Ukraine. One of them was dated to the period after 1655 and the other could not be reliably dated using available reference chronologies. The created mean tree-ring width series representing individual churches showed strong correlations with the reference chronologies for Slovakia and northern Romania whereas correlations with the only Ukrainian chronology (Lviv region) were negligible. This could suggest low Transcarpathian tree-ring coherency and may indicate the need to create a dense network of regional tree-ring width chronologies in the regions surrounding the Carpathian Mountains.

May-July NDVI variation for the middle Qinling Mountains over the past 194 years indicated by tree rings of Pinus tabuliformis

Due to the short-term observation record of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the research on long-term NDVI changes is scarce, which limits our understanding of the impacts of NDVI changes in the context of global warming. In this study, a regional tree-ring chronology was developed based on the tree-ring samples of Pinus tabuliformis in the middle Qinling Mountains. The results showed that tree-ring width of P. tabuliformis was significantly positively correlated with May-July NDVI (r=0.624, P<0.01, n=34). The Sig-Free tree-ring width chronology was used to reconstruct May-July NDVI during the period 1825-2018, which explained 38.9% of the total NDVI variance. Results of spatial analysis showed that the reconstructed series could better represent the NDVI changes in the study area. There were six high NDVI periods and five low NDVI periods in the past 194 years. The vegetation grew best in 2006-2018, indicating vegetation cove-rage in the middle of Qinling Mountains had been improved during the warming hiatus. Low NDVI periods in the reconstruction series were consistent with drought over much of study area. Results of wavelet analysis indicated the existence of 2-4 years and 12-16 years cycles in the reconstruction series. SEA analysis showed that the reconstruction series decreased significantly in the El Nino year, while increased significantly in the first to third years after the La Nina event. The growth of P. tabuliformis was predicted to increase slightly under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow

Seasonal reconstructions of streamflow are valuable because they provide water planners, policy makers, and stakeholders with information on the range and variability of water resources before the observational period. In this study, we used streamflow data from five gages near the Alabama-Florida border and centuries-long tree-ring chronologies to create and analyze seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that several regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) with March–October streamflow, and stepwise linear regression was used to create the reconstructions. Reconstructions spanned 1203–1985, 1652–1983, 1725–1993, 1867–2011, and 1238–1985 for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, Perdido, and Pascagoula Rivers, respectively, all of which were statistically skillful (R2 ≥ 0.50). The reconstructions were statistically validated using the following parameters: R2 predicted validation, the sign test, the variance inflation factor (VIF), and the Durbin–Watson (D–W) statistic. The long-term streamflow variability was analyzed for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, and Perdido Rivers, and the recent (2000s) drought was identified as being the most severe in the instrumental record. The 2000s drought was also identified as being one of the most severe droughts throughout the entire reconstructed paleo-record developed for all five rivers. This information is vital for the consideration of present and future conditions within the system.

A multimillennial snow water equivalent reconstruction from giant sequoia tree rings

The first dendroclimatic reconstruction of May 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) was developed from a Sequoiadendron giganteum regional tree-ring chronology network of 23 sites in central California for the period 90–2012 CE. The reconstruction is based on a significant relationship between May 1 SWE and tree-ring growth and shows climate variability from interannual to intercentennial time scales. A regression-based reconstruction equation explains up to 55% of the variance of SWE for 1940–2012. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1940–2012). Thresholds for May 1 SWE low (15 percentile) and high (80 percentile) years were selected based on the exploratory scatterplots relationship between observed and reconstructed data for the period 1940–2012. The longest period of consecutive low-SWE years in the reconstruction is 2 years and the frequency of the lowest SWE years is highest during the period 710–809 CE. The longest high-SWE period, defined by consecutive wet years, is 3 years (558–560 CE). SWE and its reconstruction positively correlate with northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, the low-frequency variability of which may provide some predictive ability. Ultimately, the instrumental record and reconstruction suggest that unlike other sites in the region, twentieth century SWE variability in these Sequoia groves has remained within historical boundaries and relatively buffered from extremes and severe declines, though this is likely to change in coming decades with potentially negative effects on water availability for these trees.

Дендрохронологическое датирование памятников деревянного зодчества Новосибирской области

Сreation of a long-term tree-ring calendar chronology based on archaeological wood in the Novosibirsk region is directly linked with mass dating of wooden buildings. In 2021, for the first time, successful calendar dating of two wooden houses located in Sarachevka, the Novosibirsk Region, was carried out. To study the architectural appearance of each building, a 3D model was built using a high-resolution camera installed aboard an unmannedflying machine. The dendrochronological method was used to date buildings. Cameralprocessing of the samples was carried out according to the standard procedure. Dating of the houses was carried out in two stages: for both of them, a “floating” chronology it was created, after which each of them were standardized and dated relative to the 377-year regional tree-ring chronology. As a result of this, 14 samples from building No. 1 were dated. It was found out that the wood for construction of the building was harvested not earlier than 1904, although the building itself was erected at the beginning of the 20th century. From building No. 2, 10 samples were dated, which made it possible to assert that the wood for the construction was harvested not earlier than 1907, although the building itself was erected in the first quarter of the 20th century. The obtained results updated the dates based the architectural features of both buildings by more than half a century and proved that the archaic features of traditional house building, which were brought by the Russian population to the Novosibirsk Region, preserved until the beginning of the 20th century.

Assessment of Climate Change by Dendrochronological Methods in Polissya

Dendrochronological methods were used to study the response of Quercus robur L. to climate change in Polissya. Negative pointer years (1950, 1976, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2008, and 2011) resulted from the precipitation deficiency during the growing season, cold or extremely warm winters, and abnormal early-spring temperatures. Positive pointer years (1967, 1997, 2001, and 2007) had a favorable heat and moisture balance. Dendroclimatic analysis of oak regional tree-ring chronology showed that during the spring and summer terms of 1980 - 2013, as compared to the previous 1946–1979, there a decrease in the positive influence of temperatures on the oak radial growth. In the second period, the negative impact of precipitation during the cold period on radial growth increased. The adverse impact of April precipitation on radial growth for both periods was revealed as well as the positive influence of July precipitation in the first period and precipitation in June and July in the second one. The increased influence of temperatures and precipitation on the oak radial growth in 1980 - 2013, as compared to previous 1946-1979, indicates an increase in the tree sensitivity to climate change in the second period.

A 422-Year Reconstruction of the Kaiken River Streamflow, Xinjiang, Northwest China

Our understanding of Central Asian historical streamflow variability is still limited because of short instrumental hydrologcial records. Based on tree-ring cores collected from three sampling sites in Kaiken River basin near Tien Shan, a regional tree-ring width chronology were developed. The correlation analysis showed that the runoff of Kaiken River from previous August to current June was significantly correlated with the regional chronology, and the high correlation coefficient was 0.661 (P &lt; 0.01). Based on the regional chronology, the August-June runoff of Kaiken River has been reconstructed over the past 422 year, and it accounted for 43.7% of actual runoff variance during the common period 1983–2013. The reconstruction model is reliable, and the trend of observed and reconstructed data is relatively consistent. The results of multi-taper spectral analysis for the runoff reconstruction indicated some remarkable cycles for the past 422 years; the 11.5-year cycles correspond to the solar cycle and is found widely in runoff reconstructions in Central Asia. This may imply a solar influence on the hydroclimate variations of Tien Shan. The runoff reconstruction of Kaiken River compares well with runoff reconstructions the Urumqi River and Manas River, and implies that there is a common driving factor for the runoff in central Tien Shan, China. The analysis of linkages between climate variation and the runoff reconstruction of Kaiken River shows that there is a relationship between extremes in runoff variation and abnormal atmospheric circulations. Our 422-year steamflow reconstruction provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century hydrological events in central Tien Shan, is useful for aids sustainable water management and addresses regional climate change challenges.

River flow reconstruction of the Lohit River Basin, North-east India based on tree-rings of Pinus merkusii (Merkus pine)

Dendrochronological analysis of Pinus merkusii (Merkus pine) collected from Mishmi Hills, Arunachal Pradesh, North–east India shows its potential to provide continuous and long–term information about changes in river flow of Lohit River Basin (LRB). A 170 years (1830–1999 C.E.) long regional tree-ring width chronology of Merkus pine was prepared using 80 tree cores. Based on the correlation analysis between tree-ring chronology and river discharge data, the river flow was reconstructed for the month of May from 1846 to 1999 C.E. The reconstruction showed long term low and high flow periods along with extreme drought and pluvial years. Past river flow reconstruction for hydro–climatic variability in this southwest monsoon-dominated region of North–east India requires further notice. Longer tree–ring records along with wider spatio-temporal network of discharge data from Arunachal Pradesh will help to develop better records of river flow reconstructions of the region.

Recent Consequences of Climate Change Have Affected Tree Growth in Distinct Nothofagus Macrocarpa (DC.) FM Vaz &amp; Rodr Age Classes in Central Chile

Forests play an important role in water and carbon cycles in semiarid regions such as the Mediterranean ecosystems. Previous research in the Chilean Mediterranean forests revealed a break point in 1980 in regional tree-ring chronologies linked to climate change. However, it is still unclear which populations and age classes are more affected by recent increases in drought conditions. In this study, we investigated the influence of recent variations in precipitation, temperature, and CO2 concentrations on tree growth of various populations and age classes of Nothofagus macrocarpa trees in Central Chile. We sampled 10 populations from five sites of N. macrocarpa through its whole geographic distribution in both Coastal and Andes ranges. We used standard dendrochronological methods to (i) group populations using principal component analysis, (ii) separate age classes (young, mature, and old trees), (iii) evaluate linear growth trends based on the basal area increment (BAI), and (iv) analyze the link between BAI and atmospheric changes using linear mixed-effects models. Results showed that young trees are more sensitive to climate variability. Regarding population grouping, we observed that all population clusters were sensitive to winter-spring precipitation, but only the Andes and Coastal populations were negatively correlated with temperature. The results of CO2 fertilization analyses were controversial and unclear. Since young trees from all population clusters reacted positively in the phase with an increase of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 2014, this behavior was not translated into growth for the last 15 years (2000–2014). However, it should be noted that the young trees of the highest elevation populations did not have a negative growth trend, so it seems that CO2 counteracted the negative effect of recent regional climate change (increase in temperature and precipitation decrease) in these population trees. Further studies are needed to assess the effects of climate variability over other ecological and physiological processes.

A 400-year reconstruction of spring–summer precipitation and summer low flow from regional tree-ring chronologies in North-Eastern Austria

Atmospheric and streamflow drought back to 1600 were reconstructed with provenance-verified regional Pinus-sylvestris and Pinus-nigra chronologies of earlywood, latewood and ring width, detrended by signal-free regional curve standardization, from the Weinviertel, a dry region in Eastern Austria. Linear regression models with Weinviertel latewood indices as predictor variables were used to estimate regional April–August precipitation totals (R2 = 0.47) and seven-day minimum flow from May to October (best fit: R2 = 0.65). As a novelty, the well-known dendrochronology quality measure “Expressed Population Signal” in a modified version is used to define a scaling factor for empirically estimating the reconstructions’ time-varying reliability.For the detection of drought years in the reconstructed time series, four stages of drought of increasing intensity were defined as conditions below median, and below the 33rd, 20th, and 5th percentile—representing 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 20-year recurrence intervals.The method for the extension of time series of low flows into the past is applicable in the Weinviertel and can be a useful source of historical hydrological and meteorological information restricted by the uncertainties coming along with proxy records. Of the analyzed period back to 1600, the 19th century is the driest one closely followed by the 18th century, sharing the overall driest period from 1775 to 1813. The phase with the longest continuous atmospheric dry period is 1807–1811. The longest hydrological drought lasted from 1832 to 1839.

Solar activity imprints in tree ring-data from northwestern Russia

The Sun's role in climate variability is now a subject of debates, especially in the context of understanding contribution of solar forcing to modern global warming. Besides, there are some evidences of the approaching new Grand Solar Minimum with Little Ice Age climatic conditions. This expectation is based on the occurrence of the extended solar minimum of 2006–2009. To investigate the possible Sun-climate connection the regional tree-ring chronology covering the period from 1445 to 2005 was analyzed. A total of 36 timber cores of pine Pinus sylvestris L. were sampled near the northern tree-line at Loparskaya station (68.6 N, 33.3 E), including the oldest living pine with more than 560 years of age. The data were processed using modern methods adopted in dendrochronology (cross-dating and standardization) with the help of COFECHA and ARSTAN programs. The analysis revealed significant cooling events, coinciding with the Spoerer (1400–1540), Maunder (1645–1715), Dalton (1790–1830), and Gleissberg (1880–1910) Grand Solar Minima. The application of MTM-spectrum and wavelet decomposition analysis identified the existence of the main cycles of solar activity (5.4, 11.7 and 22 years) in tree-ring width variations. As possible extraterrestrial forcings of climate change we consider here variations in solar irradiance and cosmic ray intensity modulated by the interplanetary magnetic field. As solar and cosmic ray activity indicators we used the annual sunspot number, geomagnetic aa index and Be^10 cosmogenic isotope records. To examine the relationship in time-frequency scale between tree-ring growth and solar activity, the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis were applied to the time series. The wavelet coherence analysis identified that the 11 yr and 22 yr periodicities were clearly manifested in the all solar-tree rings connections during and around the Grand Minima of solar activity including the Maunder minimum, when, as is known, sunspots were practically absent. These results confirm the existence of solar activity effect on climate and tree growth above the Arctic Circle and are important for understanding the modern climatic processes.

Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow for the Tennessee Valley

This study reports the preliminary results from a statistical screening of tree-ring width records from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB), to evaluate the strength of the hydrological signal, in dendrochronological records from the Tennessee Valley. We used United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data from 11 gages, within the Tennessee Valley, and regional tree-ring chronologies, to analyze the dendroclimatic potential of the region, and create seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation, date, and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that large numbers of regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) with the May–June–July streamflow. Stepwise linear regression was used to create the May–June–July streamflow reconstructions. Ten of the 12 streamflow stations were considered statistically skillful (R2 ≥ 0.40). Skillful reconstructions ranged from 208 to 301 years in length, and were statistically validated using leave-one-out cross validation, the sign test, and a comparison of the distribution of low flow years. The long-term streamflow variability was analyzed for the Nolichucky, Nantahala, Emory, and South Fork (SF) Holston stations. The reconstructions revealed that while most of the Western United States (U.S.). was experiencing some of its highest flow years during the early 1900s, the Tennessee Valley region was experiencing a very low flow. Results revealed the potential benefit of using tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct hydrological variables in the Southeastern U.S., by demonstrating the ability of proxy-based reconstructions to provide useful data beyond the instrumental record.

Dynamics of moisture regime and its reconstruction from a tree-ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris in the downstream basin of the Selenga River, Russia

Regional tree-ring width chronology of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) was constructed from 8 sites in the forest-steppe belt situated in the foothills of the Selenga River basin, Russia. Moisture information contained in tree-ring width chronology was obtained through linear regression reconstruction models of annual August–July precipitation and annual water discharge of the Selenga River during the period 1767–2015. Comparison of the smoothed series allowed estimating long-term variation component of these moisture regime parameters with a high precision. At the same time, regional drought indices are less correlated with pine radial growth, because they have contribution of the other environmental variables, which are much less reflected in the tree-ring of the investigated pine forest stands. Reconstructed dynamic of the moisture regime parameters is supported by documental evident of many socially significant events in the regional history, such as crop failures caused by both droughts and floods, and catastrophic fire in the Irkutsk City in 1879. Also, dependence of the amount of precipitation in the study area on the atmospheric circulation in Central Asia is revealed to have a similar pattern with other regions, i.e., a negative relationship of precipitation with the development of large high atmospheric pressure area within its center in the Altai and Tianshan mountains.