Population Decline In Regions Research Articles

Psychological and social wellbeing associated with regional population change in Finland

AbstractRegional depopulation is an increasingly common demographic issue in many countries, as population growth becomes concentrated in small number of urban centres. Depopulation has adverse effects on the region's socioeconomic development, and often leads to worse living circumstances, such as poor availability of services. Population growth, by contrast, has many socioeconomic benefits but may also introduce unwanted consequences, such as urban alienation. However, the associations of regional population change with inhabitants' psychological and social wellbeing have not been examined as extensively as the associations with socioeconomic outcomes. With a large survey dataset from Finland (n = 99,034 participants from 299 municipalities), we examined whether regional, municipality‐level population decline and growth over the preceding 10 years were associated with psychological and social wellbeing of the inhabitants of the municipalities. We were specifically interested in whether growth and decline were both related to these outcomes, or whether the associations were more pronounced for either decline or growth. Overall negative population change was related to lower social wellbeing (e.g., lower social support) and that these associations were more pronounced for the adverse associations of population decline than for the beneficial associations of population growth (e.g., less frequent social contact and higher risk of loneliness). Population change was not associated with inhabitants' depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that regional population decline can be particularly relevant for worsening social wellbeing of the inhabitants.

Pacific cod in the Anthropocene: An early life history perspective under changing thermal habitats

AbstractThe rapid decline in Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus, Gadidae) biomass following multiple Gulf of Alaska marine heatwaves (2014–2016 and 2019) may be one of the most dramatic documented changes in a sustainably managed marine fishery. As such, fisheries managers are exploring new recruitment paradigms for Pacific cod under novel environmental conditions. In this review, we address the challenges of managing and forecasting Pacific cod populations in the Eastern Pacific where thermal habitats for early life stages are undergoing varying rates of change across space and time. We use observational data to examine changes in distribution, abundance and demographics of the population from 1993 to 2020, and model contemporary and future changes of thermal habitat for both spawning success and age‐0 juvenile growth potential. Results indicate that reduced spawning habitat and early life stage abundance may be a precursor to regional population decline, but the recent apparent increases in size‐at‐age of pre‐recruits will have unknown impacts on future recruitment in these regions. We contend that continued monitoring of early life stages will be necessary to track changes in phenology and growth that likely determine size‐at‐age and the survival trajectories of year classes into the adult population. These include complex size‐ and temperature‐dependent energetics spanning seasonal habitats through the first winter. Climate‐ready management of Pacific cod will, therefore, require new process investigations beyond single‐season surveys focused on one‐life stage.

The mediating role of residential time perspective between regional decline and place attachment

Regional population decline has become a major problem for many rural areas in developed countries. The threat of regional decline due to population shrinkage may have a disruptive effect on people's attachment to their place of residence. This study explored the role of time perspective (past, present, and future) in the residential context, termed residential time perspective, as a potential mediator of the relationship between regional decline and place attachment. A survey was conducted among residents (n = 1000) living in municipalities in Japan that exhibited various rates of estimated population decline. Participants living in rural areas with higher rates of population decline reported more negative time perspectives and less attachment to their places of residence compared with participants living in urban areas. Multiple mediation analyses confirmed the viability of residential time perspective as a mediator of the relationship between residents' perceptions of regional decline and place attachment. Rural residency with a threat of regional decline moderated the mediation effect at the individual level, with significant mediation occurring through the past dimension. We suggest that the concept of residential time perspective can improve our understanding of place attachment processes and merits consideration in the context of regional sustainability.

A tale of a shrinking City? Exploring the complex interplay of socio-demographic dynamics in the recent development of Attica, Greece

Mixing peculiar socioeconomic conditions and demographic contexts, urban decline in Mediterranean Europe was less extensively documented than in other regions of the continent. Urbanization without industrialization or, more frequently, a ‘late and light’ industrialization prevented a specific interpretation of metropolitan dynamics in Mediterranean basin according with the paradigm of ‘industrial shrinkage’. For the first time in the recent history, the great recession was a factor leading to metropolitan decline in Southern Europe and, after more than one decade, its outcomes can be investigated considering sufficiently long time series of demographic indicators that assess natural population growth and migration rates. Benefiting from quantitative information derived from official statistics, the present study describes medium- and short-term demographic transformations in a large metropolitan region (Attica, Greece) in response to the great recession. After an uninterrupted growth lasting more than one century, the last decade (2010–2019) has provided a dynamic representation of regional population decline based on the interplay of long-term factors (aging, low fertility) and concomitant short-term disturbances (counter-urbanization and crisis-driven emigration). By delineating the most relevant socio-demographic mechanisms at the base of recent urban decline, our study contributes to (re)formulate short-term development scenarios in large metropolitan regions, shedding further light on crisis-driven shrinkage in Southern Europe. • Urban decline in Mediterranean Europe was poorly documented up to now. • The 2007 recession was a leading factor of metropolitan decline in Southern Europe. • Demographic indicators were used to test shrinkage in a representative Mediterranean city. • Both long-term and short-term factors were important drivers of shrinkage dynamics. • Our study contributes to (re)formulate short-term development scenarios in large cities.

Factors influencing productivity of eastern wild turkeys in northeastern South Dakota.

Population growth is highly sensitive to changes in reproductive rates for many avian species. Understanding how reproductive rates are related to environmental conditions can give managers insight into factors contributing to population change. Harvest trends of eastern wild turkey in northeastern South Dakota suggest a decline in abundance. We investigated factors influencing reproductive success of this important game bird to identify potential factors contributing to the decline. We monitored nesting rate, nest survival, renesting rate, clutch size, hatchability, and poult survival of 116 eastern wild turkey hens using VHF radio transmitters during the springs and summers of 2017 and 2018. Heavier hens were more likely to attempt to nest than lighter hens, and adult hens were more likely to renest than yearling hens. Nest survival probability was lowest in agricultural fields relative to all other cover types and positively related to horizontal visual obstruction and distance to the nearest road. Daily nest survival probability demonstrated an interaction between temperature and precipitation, such that nest survival probability was lower on warm, wet days, but lowest on dry days. Egg predation was the leading cause of nest failure, followed by haying of the nest bowl and death of the incubating hen. Poults reared by adult hens had a greater probability of survival than poults reared by yearling hens. Our estimate of survival probability of poults raised by yearling hens was low relative to other studies, which may be contributing to the apparent regional population decline. However, there is little managers can do to influence poult survival in yearling hens. Alternatively, we found nest survival probability was lowest for nests initiated in agricultural fields. Wildlife‐friendly harvesting practices such as delayed haying or installation of flushing bars could help increase productivity of eastern wild turkey in northeastern South Dakota.

Historical records and increasing trends of Caribbean Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber) on Margarita Island, Venezuela

ABSTRACTThe Caribbean Flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) has been a species of conservation concern since the 1960s because of its regional population decline and loss of breeding colonies. In the last two decades, there have been reports of increasing population trends in the Caribbean. The aim of this work is to document the historic population status of flamingos on Margarita Island, Venezuela, and to present an account of their recovery since 2006. In the first half of the twentieth century, flamingos were present on Margarita Island in one location (La Restinga lagoon) in variable numbers (100–800); however, in the 1980s and 1990s, they almost disappeared from the island. In 2006, a group of nine was recorded. During the following years, the population increased in number and expanded eastward on the island. Today, the population size range 1 600–2 000 individuals, are present regularly in at least eight lagoons, and two breeding colonies have been reported. Several threats are still present in the island that can revert the positive population trend. The recovery of the population in Margarita Island is a consequence of successful regional conservation efforts and the maintenance of wetlands with appropriate conditions for the species, particularly in protected areas.

Multiscale model of regional population decline in little brown bats due to white-nose syndrome.

The introduced fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans is causing decline of several species of bats in North America, with some even at risk of extinction or extirpation. The severity of the epidemic of white‐nose syndrome caused by P. destructans has prompted investigation of the transmission and virulence of infection at multiple scales, but linking these scales is necessary to quantify the mechanisms of transmission and assess population‐scale declines.We built a model connecting within‐hibernaculum disease dynamics of little brown bats to regional‐scale dispersal, reproduction, and disease spread, including multiple plausible mechanisms of transmission.We parameterized the model using the approach of plausible parameter sets, by comparing stochastic simulation results to statistical probes from empirical data on within‐hibernaculum prevalence and survival, as well as among‐hibernacula spread across a region.Our results are consistent with frequency‐dependent transmission between bats, support an important role of environmental transmission, and show very little effect of dispersal among colonies on metapopulation survival.The results help identify the influential parameters and largest sources of uncertainty. The model also offers a generalizable method to assess hypotheses about hibernaculum‐to‐hibernaculum transmission and to identify gaps in knowledge about key processes, and could be expanded to include additional mechanisms or bat species.

Attracting skilled labour to the North: Migration loss and policy implications across Russia’s diverse Arctic regions

AbstractThis paper identifies education, skills training and improved social infrastructure as key development issues to address population decline in regions of steady out-migration from the Russian Arctic. Migration flows have mostly stabilised after the sharp and unexpectedly large population decline in the Arctic in the 1990s, during the transition to a market economy. However, the trends set in motion during that collapse, including falling general levels of education, declining size of all but the largest cities, and ageing of the populace, are becoming more serious for some regions, even where government resettlement programmes exist. As young professionals continue to leave, resettling compatriots and hiring shift labour may contribute to the vitality of more resilient regions, for example, Krasnoyarsk and Yamalo-Nenets. However, the European part of the Russian Arctic, despite its critical importance to commerce and to military security, and despite assistance programmes and subsidies, is conforming more to the ageing, less productive contours of neighbouring Arctic states on the periphery of Europe.

Vulnerability analysis of the rare and endangered woodland fern Polystichum braunii in Germany: three possible causes of population decline

Background: Various rare and endangered temperate ferns are being threatened by their recent population decline, but there is limited understanding of the causes behind it.Aims: This study attempted to identify the possible drivers of regional population decline and extinction in the globally distributed woodland fern Polystichum braunii.Methods: A comparison was undertaken of the climatic, edaphic and phytosociological characteristics of sites with increasing, decreasing or recently extinct populations in Germany.Results: A significantly higher frequency of episodes of low relative air humidity (<60%) was found at sites with decreasing or extinct populations compared to habitats with population increases. Sites with decreasing or extinct populations were also characterised as having less summer precipitation (<500 mm year−1) and a shorter duration of snow cover (<110 days year−1) than sites with increasing populations. The latter had significantly higher moss cover (56% of the forest floor), but less cover by a tree litter layer (23%) compared to decreasing (36% and 38%) or recently extinct populations (22% and 52%). All increasing populations were located in intact Tilia – Acer ravine forests, while those suffering population decline were mostly located in Fagus-dominated forests.Conclusions: It was concluded that the probable causes of the recent decline in German P. braunii populations are reduced air humidity levels, decreasing snow duration or a shift from moss-covered to tree litter-covered forest floors due to climate warming or altered forest management.

The emergence of entrepreneurial ideas at universities in times of demographic change: evidence from Germany

The recent demographic trends in Western Europe imply tremendous structural change and are likely to heavily impact regional development. Against this background, we focus on entrepreneurial activities at universities and analyze regional and university specific determinants of the emergence of university entrepreneurship across regions that are differently challenged by demographic change. We underpin this quantitative assessment with interviews conducted in six case study regions with university staff responsible for technology transfer and the promotion of entrepreneurship to get some tentative insights about the perception of how demographic change might impact the entrepreneurial potential of universities. The results demonstrate that regional population decline is negatively related to entrepreneurial activities at universities. Furthermore, even university start-ups whose business idea is driven by detecting market opportunities related to demographic change are not more likely to emerge in regions that are especially challenged by demographic change. Finally, our interviews suggested that demographic change seems to play no role in the day-to-day work of technology transfer offices.

Intra‐Regional Differentiation of Population Development in Southern‐Limburg, the Netherlands

AbstractAlthough we are steadily getting a better understanding of why regional population decline occurs, little is known about the causes of differentiated levels of decline between municipalities in the same region. In this paper we address the causes of intra‐regional differentiation in decline in the Dutch region Southern‐Limburg. The quantitative and qualitative analyses reveal that in the 1900‐1945 period, differentiation in population development was the result of economic boom and bust in the mining areas. After 1945 (except for 1985‐1989) however, the economic argument lost much of its relevance: intra‐regional differentiation has primarily been the result of intra‐regional and international migration and these flows are steered predominantly by life course motives, the uneven spatial distribution of housing opportunities and access to these opportunities within the region.

European Regional Population Decline and Policy Responses: Three Case Studies

Universal processes related to the demographic transition to structural low fertility on the one hand, and economic geographic processes of concentration and urbanization on the other lead to regional population decline in most European countries. Due to this universal nature of the underlying processes policies aimed at dealing with them share substantial similarities. At the same time, the regional context is very important as well. This paper aims to give more insight into and reflections on policies dealing with population decline in three European regions: Northeast Scotland, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, and Brandenburg. Each region has experienced population decline, but in different regional and national contexts. Policy responses between the regions differed. Each of the regions has experienced some form of structural change that was triggered by external developments. Demography has reacted to these changes primarily through migration. Moreover, there are strong internal differences in growth and decline within these regions. One of the main conclusions is that the role of national policies has been substantial. The more successful regional policies were supported strongly by national policies. Moreover, policies have primarily affected liveability in the regions, but not population decline as such.

Decline and likely extinction of a northern Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus

Contemporary fire patterns are considered the most likely cause for regional population decline amongst small to medium mammals in northern tropical Australia. Here we assess the extinction risk faced by a vulnerable north Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus in relation to fire frequency. This species has recently suffered a significant contraction in range. We provide the first quantitative evidence to demonstrate the immediate threat destructive wildfires and regular annual fire pose to the long-term population persistence of C. penicillatus. We show that late-dry season fires cause a reduction in both juvenile and adult survival probabilities. However, abundance declined at the unburnt as well as a frequently burnt site, suggesting that fire exclusion alone does not guarantee the species’ long-term persistence. Our model projections indicate that the remaining populations of C. penicillatus on the Northern Territory mainland risk extirpation within the next ten years. Conservation requires decisive management action to ameliorate extensive and destructive fires. A multi-faceted management plan needs to focus on restoring a fire management regime which generates a fine-scale mosaic of burnt and unburnt habitat, and the release of captive bred animals into fenced reserves free of exotic predators.

Green space development in shrinking cities – opportunities and constraints

Many cities in Eastern Germany are aff ected by processes of demographic and economic shrinkage (Hannemann, 2003; Gatzweiler et al., 2003): (1) Demographic processes mean changes in the size and structure of the population. Lower fertility rates have been causing the absolute population to drop. A rising level of life expectancy has lead to demographic aging. Additionally, internal migration has resulted in regional population decline. Meanwhile, immigration and changing lifestyles have made populations more international and heterogeneous. (2) Deindustrialisation in Eastern Germany has led to economic problems and has also resulted in declining budgets of the local authorities. (3) Loss of population and economic downturn have brought about a fall in the demand for housing, commercial property and social infrastructure buildings, thus creating a surplus. The increasing number of vacancies calls for the demolition of buildings, producing more empty spaces and transforming the urban fabric. Concurrent suburbanisation and changes in land-usage have reduced the spatial density of shrinking cities.

Historical Ecology in the Mesa Verde Region: Results from the Village Ecodynamics Project

Using the occupation histories of 3,176 habitation sites, new estimates of maize-agriculture productivity, and an analysis of over 1,700 construction timbers, we examine the historical ecology of Pueblo peoples during their seven-century occupation (A.D. 600–1300) of a densely settled portion of the Mesa Verde archaeological region. We identify two cycles of population growth and decline, the earlier and smaller peaking in the late-A.D. 800s, the later and larger in the mid-A.D. 1200s. We also identify several episodes of immigration. Formation of aggregated settlements, which we term community centers, is positively correlated with increasing population and the time elapsed in each settlement cycle, and it persists during periods of regional population decline, but it does not correlate with climatic variation averaged over periods. Architectural and land-use practices depleted pinyon-juniper woodlands during the first cycle, but more stable field systems and greater recycling of construction timber resulted in more sustainable management of wood resources during the second cycle, despite much higher population densities. Our estimates for maize production are lower than previous estimates, especially for the A.D. 1200s, when population reached its peak in the study area. Even so, considerable potential agricultural production remained unused in the decades that immediately preceded the complete depopulation of our study area.

Reproductive success of nase (Chondrostoma nasus L.) and its influence on population dynamics

Human habitat degradation can alter important factors for fish reproduction and survival of youngest life stages and therefore interfere with reproductive success. Although periodic species like nase (Chondrostoma nasus L.) can compensate for single years with unfavourable conditions for reproduction, an increase in numbers of years with unfavourable conditions for spawning could bring local subpopulations to extinction. If habitat fragmentation prevents recolonization, a massive regional population decline can be expected. In the present study, a simulation model including 4 different scenarios was used to explore the regulation of population development. Basic population parameters, survival of different stages of 0+ nase and reproduction were investigated on five different spawning grounds in the River Aare near Berne during three years. Missing data were obtained from the literature. Because of a high proportion of years with unfavourable conditions for reproduction of nase and an unbalanced population structure, a massive population decline has to be expected in the next years. Reproductive success, mortalities of early life stages and population structure are crucial for the population dynamics of the nase. Conclusions should be drawn for local habitat management. Small-scale habitat improvements promise best results to increase survival of 0+ stages. The protection of spawning sites and habitats with reduced currents for larval and juvenile nase under different discharge levels are proposed.

Population Decline in Non-Metropolitan Australia: Impacts and Policy Implications

Despite the overall growth of the Australian population there are significant levels of population decline in some regions. Depopulation has often been caused by technological and economic change. In some cases this trend creates a vicious cycle of population loss, service decline and further out-migration. The public policy maker is faced with a difficult balance between equity and efficiency considerations as regional population decline leads to increasing per capita costs of service and infrastructure provision. This paper highlights regions in Australia which are experiencing depopulation, examining causes, impacts and policy implications.