A tale of a shrinking City? Exploring the complex interplay of socio-demographic dynamics in the recent development of Attica, Greece

Abstract

Mixing peculiar socioeconomic conditions and demographic contexts, urban decline in Mediterranean Europe was less extensively documented than in other regions of the continent. Urbanization without industrialization or, more frequently, a ‘late and light’ industrialization prevented a specific interpretation of metropolitan dynamics in Mediterranean basin according with the paradigm of ‘industrial shrinkage’. For the first time in the recent history, the great recession was a factor leading to metropolitan decline in Southern Europe and, after more than one decade, its outcomes can be investigated considering sufficiently long time series of demographic indicators that assess natural population growth and migration rates. Benefiting from quantitative information derived from official statistics, the present study describes medium- and short-term demographic transformations in a large metropolitan region (Attica, Greece) in response to the great recession. After an uninterrupted growth lasting more than one century, the last decade (2010–2019) has provided a dynamic representation of regional population decline based on the interplay of long-term factors (aging, low fertility) and concomitant short-term disturbances (counter-urbanization and crisis-driven emigration). By delineating the most relevant socio-demographic mechanisms at the base of recent urban decline, our study contributes to (re)formulate short-term development scenarios in large metropolitan regions, shedding further light on crisis-driven shrinkage in Southern Europe. • Urban decline in Mediterranean Europe was poorly documented up to now. • The 2007 recession was a leading factor of metropolitan decline in Southern Europe. • Demographic indicators were used to test shrinkage in a representative Mediterranean city. • Both long-term and short-term factors were important drivers of shrinkage dynamics. • Our study contributes to (re)formulate short-term development scenarios in large cities.